On the heels of a Rasmussen poll suggesting Democrats should worry about Senator Barbara Boxer’s re-election chances, comes worse news from Field for the three term incumbent.
The raw numbers: Campbell 44/Boxer 43, Fiorina 44/Boxer 45, DeVore 41/Boxer 45, 3.7% Margin of Error. My model’s win percentages: DeVore 29% , Fiorina 44%, and Campbell 55%.
Boxer had reason to worry when she dropped below 50 against all comers, showing that she’s lost the automatic majority that had previously stood ready to return her to the Senate. But now she even lacks a plurality against Tom Campbell. Carly Fiorina also looks ready to win 4 times out of 9. Even Chuck DeVore is improving, though he lags greatly in making himself known to the voters at all.
From January to March Field has Boxer going underwater in approval, dropping from +9 to -13. The Republicans were mostly steady: Campbell from +4 to +5, Fiorina held at -2, and DeVore went from -3 to -4, though only 22% of those polled had an opinion of him at all.
In a way it’s remarkable how close Chuck DeVore is despite the massive name recognition gap: 89% for Boxer, 41% for Campbell, 42% for Fiorina, and 22% for DeVore puts him far below the rest, yet he polls only a few points behind Boxer. I think the combination of the Rasmussen and Field polls suggests that Boxer will be in jeopardy no matter the result of the Republican primary. Whoever the Republicans nominate will gain in recognition and possibly in nationwide fundraising as well.
That would seem to be the reason that Al Gore, Barack Obama, and the DNC are all coming out to raise money for an 18 year incumbent Senator in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican Senator since 1988, and arguably never an outspoken pro-life Senator in the post-Roe era. This is surprising particularly for Boxer herself, who has won each Senate race with a margin double the previous: +5 in 1992, +10 in 1998, and +20 in 2004.
Senator Boxer has on her hands the fight of her political life.
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Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
DOOM! DOOM! DOOM!
Dan McLaughlin (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 6:33PM EST (link)Drums in the deep.
“No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong.” – Winston Churchill
LOTR Allusions
jsanzone (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 6:46PM EST (link)always brighten my day.
Seriously, I think this is a good example of how a contentious GOP primary can work wonders. If there was an ‘anointed’ candidate by now they’d be consistently falling behind.
Beside the press coverage and boost in name recognition, showing the voters in a blue state like CA that there is, in fact, diversity of thought within the GOP makes it more comfortable and less easy to peg as ‘right-wing terrorists’ or whatnot.
It would be interesting to see the same thing repeated somewhere like Connecticut with its three-way race; and arguably it already has in Florida and Kentucky, with the ‘tea party candidates’ surging ahead of even Democratic opponents, something we were all told would be impossible.
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What a shame.....
NeoKong (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 6:44PM EST (link)She worked so hard for that job.
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5 (nt)
Neil Stevens (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 6:44PM EST (link)RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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Please don't refer The Senator with any gender specific pronouns
bannedtroll Thursday, March 18th at 7:01PM EST (link)It’s offensive.
I’m a banned Democrat who came here to promote the idea that Republicans are racists for disliking Barack Obama.
Is liberal dunce okay? -nt
Leopard1996 (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 7:03PM EST (link)“The accumluated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout, “Save Us!”….and I’ll look down and whisper, “No”…The Watchmen
No.
mbecker908 (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 7:07PM EST (link)It’s redundant.
Good point
Leopard1996 (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 8:02PM EST (link)I was thinking a few other things, but I remembered posting rules.
“The accumluated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout, “Save Us!”….and I’ll look down and whisper, “No”…The Watchmen
Me too. Probably the same five letter word. nt
mbecker908 (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 9:45PM EST (link)I was thinking more like four letters - nt
Leopard1996 (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 10:25PM EST (link)“The accumluated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout, “Save Us!”….and I’ll look down and whisper, “No”…The Watchmen
WHEN Boxer loses
JoeG Thursday, March 18th at 9:07PM EST (link)I certainly hope General Walsh comes up with a reason to repeatedly mention “Barbara” once Boxer is out of office. Just to get under her skin…
I'm a Californian
rjreset Thursday, March 18th at 10:15PM EST (link)who’s sick of always hearing how liberal my state is. Nice to see that things may be changing. We could really use some common sense out here in my state. We have just about everything going for our state EXCEPT the people who actually govern us. I love my state but damn, people used to come HERE for opportunity. Now they are fleeing.
This video exposes Boxer for what she really is
medamorphus (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 7:00PM EST (link)I’ll bet the Boxer crowd hopes that we’ve forgotten all about this video…we haven’t!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FE_jGD5nZ6U
The only thing better than getting rid of Boxer
chbroussard (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 7:27PM EST (link)…would be getting rid of Pelosi too.
Yeah
Neil Stevens (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 7:31PM EST (link)The sad part is the only way we get rid of Pelosi is if a Green Party person beats her.
When you represent San Francisco proper, a Republican isn’t going to beat you.
RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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It'll still be sweet to hear
JoeG Thursday, March 18th at 9:14PM EST (link)“Get out of the speakers office, it’s mine now.”
Spoken by the new Speaker John Boehner
tjexcite (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 10:38PM EST (link)Or Speaker Paul Ryan or Speaker Mike Pence or Speaker Eric Cantor
When you do things right, people won’t be sure you’ve done anything at all
Spoken by the new Speaker John Boehner
tjexcite (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 10:38PM EST (link)Or Speaker Paul Ryan or Speaker Mike Pence or Speaker Eric Cantor
When you do things right, people won’t be sure you’ve done anything at all
Polling bias?
SteveLA (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 7:37PM EST (link)Neil
So how much of the closeness of the polling is state workers and other notional Democrats who are saying they are going to vote for Campbell who has shown he’s all in favor of raising taxes?
I tend to think that some of the poor polling for Babs is caused by the Democratic Union types who wonder where the pork is that other states are getting but not California. Campbell might not be all that terrible, so the thinking would go for some Donks in the state, but at least he would not be as toxic as Babs Boxer has proven to be and maybe he’ll bring home the bacon.
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Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests
The numbers seem too close for that
Neil Stevens (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 7:47PM EST (link)Compare Campbell and Fiorina.
This seems just to be a general mood thing, plus specific weakness in Boxer.
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Internals?
SteveLA (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 7:59PM EST (link)Hmm….Campbell is skewing young, under 49, he’s up 29 to 17 percent of Carlie, and 18 percent over DeVore.
Same story with those over 65, Campbell leads.
Tea Party types who are probably more fiscally conservative than most, Carlie leads Campbell, but DeVore leads both by 10 percent. Looks like the fiscal conservative Tea Party types are not all sold on Campbell which is to be expected.
Not sure what the economic status data would show, but I’d guess that Campbell would lead there too with higher income folks skewing to Campbell, but that’s a guess.
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Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests
I get skeptical of some of those subsets
Neil Stevens (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 8:10PM EST (link)The MoE starts to blow up when you start slicing and dicing specific brackets of the Republican bracket.
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Probably
SteveLA (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 8:20PM EST (link)Neil
No argument from me about Ginsu slicing polling. I’m just wondering how soft or hard Carlie’s support is. I tend to think that Carlie is one Joe Biden gaff away from being exposed as being basically clueless. The MSM is playing her nice for now, let’s see how long that keeps working out.
Campbell is part of the budget problem, or rather one of the creators of same as the California Department of Finance under the Governator Girlyman, so I’m not trilled to see him ahead, but he seems to have a good chance of beating Babs. Throw in that he can probably raise the money to run state wide in the general, something I doubt DeVore could do, well he might be able to pull off a win.
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Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests
I have no evidence to back it up
Neil Stevens (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 8:30PM EST (link)But I think Carly’s support is pretty firm. I think that a lot of people are seeing her as the conservative pick versus Campbell.
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This just makes it more important...
raydawggie Thursday, March 18th at 7:44PM EST (link)That we defeat Campbell. He and his Anti-Israel allies cannot be allowed to get a beachhead in the Senate, especially with the current climate.
We should go all-out for DeVore, of course, but if he winds up dropping out, I’ll be backing Fiorina. She’s far from an ideal candidate, but she’d be a massive step up from Boxer or Campbell. And what’s more, she’s exactly the kind of outsider candidate who could be favored in a cycle like this.
Why on earth
allergic2libspin Thursday, March 18th at 8:21PM EST (link)would Chuck drop out?
Apparently you’re not paying very close attention to this race. Chuck is out pounding the pavement doing many speaking engagements, interacting with people on Facebook and twitter, numerous radio interviews, tv interviews. He participated in a 3-way debate with the other 2 primary candidates and he “KNOCKED it out of the park”!
To even suggest “if he winds up dropping out” is completely an irrational thought.
YES! WE SHOULD GO ALL OUT FOR DEVORE!
I would ask you to rethink your comment about Carly: “she’s exactly the kind of outsider candidate who could be favored in a cycle like this”………..REALLY? She’s not so “outsider” there raydawggie. Just think “Big Business married to Big Government”.
McCain’s chief financial advisor. Need I say more?
DeVore needs move up soon or move on
red_oakster (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 9:40PM EST (link)I made this point in a separate entry. DeVore has a month at most to build support. If he is still trailing badly by mid-April, he needs to drop the campaign to avoid handing the primary to Campbell. Personally I would prefer DeVore, but Fiorina is much much better than Campbell and Boxer.
Too soon for that
SteveLA (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 9:47PM EST (link)red_oakster
Much much too early for that sort of talk.
Probably early summer, call it June for people to start paying attention to this race out here in CA, and maybe more like August. Long as DeVore is out stumping, he’s still in the race and there’s always the possibility of Carlie self destructing base on her own lack of knowledge on real issues. What’s it cost DeVore to keep running, not much really and long as he’s still in the race, the race is not over.
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Competency over ideological purity and litmus tests
The pro-life stance
allergic2libspin Thursday, March 18th at 8:06PM EST (link)isn’t the ONLY attribute of Chuck DeVore although I do commend him for taking a stand on this issue. There are many many issues both foreign and domestic in which Chuck will be a great asset to the people of California and the US senate.
Why is that so surprising that someone who is pro-life polls this closely to Boxer? Because she’s “Madam-I’m pro-choice-I’m entitled to this seat-so I can continue to tell my little minions how to think-and squander their tax dollars because they’re none the wiser-Boxer”?
Oh wait….let me add: arrogant, self-serving……………………
My feeling is that the people of this state (along with all states) have not been responsible and informed voters. The lock step voters (many don’t even vote, let alone bother to register) are lazy voters and don’t make informed decisions. For years I’ve worked with my professional organization on state/federal public policy advocacy work and people were so resistive because they felt intimidated, they didn’t remember their civics lessons, they were apathetic assuming someone else would take care of it. It was mind numbing to see such apathy.
So I guess we can thank Obama for WAKING UP THE NATION. More and more people are getting involved, they’re taking the time to research, they’re cross-referencing various websites, they’re paying closer attention. They’re not relying on the scandalous mainstream media.
So thanks to new media, Barbara Boxer and her crony corruptocrats are being exposed. I’m not the least bit surprised Chuck is within striking distance. People are FINALLY getting it.
GO CHUCK!!!!!
And here I thought the worst news for Barbara Boxer
The_Gadfly (Diary) Thursday, March 18th at 9:31PM EST (link)was that The Big 0 is going to come out and help her campaign.