Presidents are Beatable if Primaried


The conventional wisdom in this country is that incumbent Presidents effectively just don’t lose short of some freak events, such that in 2012 we should go in expecting defeat. That’s not the case. While it is true that in 2012 we will start off behind President Obama, the historical advantage of incumbency is not insurmountable. Especially if the President receives a serious primary challenge, we should go into the election expecting to beat him, not merely to contain losses downticket.

Year Incumbent W/L Primary? Notes
1948 Truman W Y* Succeeded as VP, No primaries but party bosses attempted replacement, Democrats split on racism with third party taking 39 EVs
1956 Eisenhower W N
1964 Johnson W N Succeeded as VP
1968 Johnson L Y Effectively a third term, Democrats split on war and racism with third party taking 46 EVs
1972 Nixon W N
1976 Ford L Y Unelected, Succeeded as VP
1980 Carter L Y
1984 Reagan W N
1992 GHW Bush L Y Republican split in taxes, independent takes 19% of popular vote
1996 Clinton W N
2004 GW Bush W N

I’ve classed these Presidential runs by incumbents in two broad categories: The first category is with the light backgrounds and includes three elections of the post-war era: 1948, 1964, and 1976. These incumbents were not elected President. In them, the incumbents go 2-1. Johnson faced no serious opposition for the Democrat nomination and cruised to victory. Truman and Ford did not have their nominations assured, and both had close races, going 1-1.

The second category includes all other incumbents who took office by running for President and winning. In the post-war era these incumbents go 5-3, with all three losers suffering serious party challenges. In Johnson 1968′s case, he had no serious chance of winning the nomination against the Communist-driven pacifist movement sweeping his party.

I conclude we’d best hope President Obama receives a primary challenge, because historically the President’s own party members are excellent at sensing weakness in an incumbent’s re-election chances. Does anyone have the ear of Secretary Clinton, or perhaps a candidate who can capitalize on Democrat dissatisfaction over war and rendition for torture?


Category: , , , ,

RSS feed

16 Comments Leave a comment

I've been speculating for awhile

Scope (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 2:41PM EST (link)

that Clinton will primary Obama in 2012. I’ve gotten the predictable replies that presidents don’t get primaried, unless they really screw up. Pick a topic, any topic, and tell me where Obama hasn’t screwed up. He may be using more moderate language now in his speeches, but, he will not budge an inch from his far left radical positions. Look at Obamacare- he ain’t giving it up, he promised that in the SOTU lecture. Emmanuel is looking into how far he can go with Executive Orders. He already did the Debt Commission by EO.

Obama will continue to sit as a very black cloud above all of us Americans. Hope has now been replaced with Anger, even with some of his most ardent supporters. High unemployment will continue, the debt (and debt ceiling) will continue to increase, our freedoms will continue to erode, and, his approval numbers will continue to slide downhill.

The Clintons will never allow a Republican to replace Obama, especially when the Communists have come this far. Clinton will campaign with an “I told you so” mantra, and, she will push that she can be the next historic president because she would be the first female president. There is no question in my mind that Hillary would win that primary. I never, for a minute, doubt or take my eyes off the Clintons.

 

The Obvious Primary Candidates Against Obama are Bayh, Clinton, and Dean

IJB Friday, February 19th at 2:44PM EST (link)

It’s an open question right now whether Obama will be challenged in a Primary on his Right, or on his Left, or possibly both.

Personally, I think a challenge from the Left seems much more likely, esp. if the Dems are unable to pass any version of ObamaCare, and esp. if we still have troops in Iraq or even Afghanistan by 2012. From the Left, Dean seems the most obvious choice, though I supposed there are other possibilities.

I think a challenge from the Right of Obama is much, much less likely, unless he does something *really* radical, or his foreign policy ends in a mushroom cloud (a small, but real, possibility). If he does get a challenge from the Right, Bayh is currently the most obvious choice, as Hillary is part of his Admin. and mounting a challenge to Obama from that position will be difficult-to-impossible.

Totally agree

In The Hook (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 3:45PM EST (link)

As much as we see Obama for what he is, and that’s a purebred leftist, the activists don’t see it. They see him kowtowing to GOP “obstruction,” selling out to special interests with the PhRMA deal, being a full fledged neocon on most foreign policy and generally selling out the left. Having Clinton run just as herself makes sense, because on balance she and Obama are about the same on the issues. She would run on competence… provided Obama still has yet to accomplish anything that the left wants by 2011.

A run by Dean or someone like him makes the most sense. The Netroots have the most insane purity test I’ve ever seen and I think they can get someone like Dean or one of his disciples engaged to at least throw some punches in a primary.

A challenge from Bayh in the primary makes no sense. You cannot attack from the right flank in the Democrat primary anymore than you can attack from the left flank in a GOP primary. McCain ran on “most likely to win” and foreign policy. He steered plenty right in the primary in early ’08 and that’s why he won… well that and Huckabee and Romney destroying each other. Bayh running as an independent in 2012 or as a Dem in 2016 makes more sense.

“Hello? You play to win the game.”
Support conservatives that can win.
http://www.marcorubio.com

 

An Entire Stage Full of Dem Candidates

Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 4:48PM EST (link)

would send an astonishing message. Particularly if CLinton and Dean were among them.

” I side impenitently with the human race against the modern reformer.” – C.S. Lewis

 

Could a primary from the left hurt us though?

Brian_Roastbeef (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 9:31PM EST (link)

If Dean or somebody mounts a serious challenge from the left of Obama, with massive media attention as would be expected, and Obama survives, couldn’t this just give him the opportunity to appear as the centrist and strengthen his standing with moderates for the general election? Obama would be ceding a fair share of the leftie netroots, but compared to that craziness Obama could come off looking almost reasonable. In that case, I could see people voting for them despite their brains telling them not to. Pessimistic, maybe, but I don’t have a lot of faith in voters’ memories.

Of course if the challenge scares Obama enough, he could jump even farther to the left and weird out everybody except the 5% of voters that they would be aiming for… That there would be good times. Really way too early to be speculating on anything of this sort though.

 
 

This is where the myth of the "conservative dem" plays out...

laxconservative (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 2:47PM EST (link)

He’s not getting a primary challenge from his left flank and I can’t think of one candidate who could challenge from the center-left. Looking at the Senate: Lieberman has no chance. Bayh had a chance, but he voted down the line for things the WH wanted, so this whole charade of stepping down now because the party is too liberal and trying to look centrist isn’t worth anything. Ben Nelson is a joke after his health care sell-out. The whole Democratic Senate caucus is in lock-step with him on policies that even independents who are left-leaning think stink to high heaven.

From the Governor ranks, the bench looks pretty thin as well. Maybe Mike Beebe out of Arkansas?

 

Causation Vs Correlation

Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 2:49PM EST (link)

Are Presidents beatable because they get primaried, or are they primaried because the challenger smells the blood of a wounded animal?

” I side impenitently with the human race against the modern reformer.” – C.S. Lewis

Little from column A and a little from column B I expect (nt)

Neil Stevens (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 4:06PM EST (link)

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

Thus, Regardless of Whether He Gets Primaried

Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 4:14PM EST (link)

If BHO has unemployment north of 8.0 on U3 by 2012, he can be dropped like an unpleasant date.

” I side impenitently with the human race against the modern reformer.” – C.S. Lewis

Yeah

Neil Stevens (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 4:16PM EST (link)

I expect some of it is that primaried Presidents are already weak, but I also am guessing that an active primary race can crystallize opposition that otherwise would have no outlet for unhappiness.

So if someone steps up and primaries Obama he could have real trouble.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

 
 
 
 

Will all those who think Hillary has given up on being President raise their hands

Tbone (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 2:59PM EST (link)

so we can count the fools in the room?

Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.

 

Operation Chaos, part Deux

JoeG Friday, February 19th at 3:27PM EST (link)

If there is any early coronation on the R side, then the Repuclicans across the country can focus on keeping the dems slugging it out until the end.

 

Political Litmus Test

JamesonLewis3rd Friday, February 19th at 4:33PM EST (link)

1. Adherence to the Constitution of the United States of America
a. If an incumbent, adherence to their oath regarding the Constitution of the United States of America

Hebrews 11:8
Jeremiah 33:3

 

Obama won't face a serious primary challenge

Dan McLaughlin (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 4:45PM EST (link)

Somebody may jump in, but I don’t see any of the big figures mounting a challenge either from the left or the center. Dems’ desire for power will overcome that. Unless he’s really in terribly bad shape anyway.

“No compromise with the main purpose, no peace till victory, no pact with unrepentant wrong.” – Winston Churchill

 

Need a Traumatic Event First

Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Friday, February 19th at 4:55PM EST (link)

The only person that would or could primary Obama is Hillary. No one else stands a real chance. There could be a “statement” run. I could see a hard progressive running to pull Obama left. I could also see a Bloomberg type run as a Dem to pull Obama to the center. But that’s all for show.

Clinton is the only one who could pull it off and even she probably knows its a non-starter unless Obama completely collapses. Obama still has broad support and people are free to criticize him because he is not up for re-election any time soon. The Dems and the MSM will rally around him in an election year.

But if there is a severe second housing collapse or a successful terrorist attack or some major event like that in late 2010/2011, there might be an opening for Clinton.

I think Bayh might be veep material. He wont run for POTUS. Biden is uselss. He brings nothing, not even a single state or even good counsel. Obama doesnt even like him or use him. Bayh keeps Indiana in play, brings tens of millions of dollars, centrist creds and legit campaign skills.

I don't think it matters,

ceili_dancer (Diary) Saturday, February 20th at 12:07AM EST (link)

Ted Kennedy really didn’t have a chance by mid February when the primary campaign started in late December. The fact is the weakness may or may not show, but Neil has it right about it crystalizes opposition from either side.