Undefeated Kentucky basketball received a call from Obama today .  To be fair, the main purpose of the call was to praise UK for raising money for Haiti, but then Obama started talking hoops with the team.

One of the starters, Patrick Patterson was touched.  “Your leadership has inspired us all,” Patterson said.

UK then played at unranked South Carolina tonight.

And lost, 66-62.

Maybe Obama should inspire the Russians in the upcoming Olympics.

- NDPhog

This morning, my gas tank was about 1/8 full.

I rode to work with my wife in her car.

Tonight, I was hopeful that it had changed. Alas, it was still 1/8 full. A bit of a disappointment.

My mortgage payment is automatically deducted on the 5th of the month. “Not this time” thought I. Alas, it was deducted today. More disappointment.

Maybe I need to wait until late January, but this isn’t the start I was hoping for.

• NDPhog

Posting on BlackBerry.

At the Clermont Co. Fairgrounds (the county east of Hamilton, where Cincinnati is), the line is about an hour to get in. Jean Schmidt (OH-2) will be here soon, followed by Gov Palin. Very nice crowd for a Sunday night. More as necessary.

NDphog

I’m not blessed with the rhetorical or composition abilities of many on this site, so I have to keep my arguments to my moderate Democrat friends brief. I make three points to them, and let them decide on which side of the argument they fall. These points matter not one whit to liberals or socialists. Rather, these have been made with some success to persuade moderate democrats, who attend church at least once a month or so.

*Compassion *
There is a way to talk about compassion, and there is a way to act on it.
“Whatsoever you do, to the least of My people; that, you do unto Me.” – Jesus. Twice in the IL Legislature (according to John K. Wilson’s book – I have not looked up the votes, myself), Obama voted against banning doctors from cracking open a living, unborn baby’s skull and removing pieces, including the brain, in order to remove the baby from the womb (John Wilson). Is this the type of compassion to the most innocent and helpless that you have? If you equate war to secure American security to murdering unborn children, then we disagree on that and disagree what innocent truly means.

Economic
Obama wants to redistribute wealth. He wants to raise taxes on families over $150, or $200, or $250. I know many people in the lower two categories, and none of them consider themselves wealthy. They struggle to raise kids, pay mortgages, repair roofs, fix cars, save for retirement, give to their church and charity, etc. This will be made more difficult. Is that what you want?

Judgment
Obama has counseled and taken counsel from known and unrepentant terrorists (Khalidi, Ayers, etc.) and enemies of the United States of America. Are these the type of people that you want having an opportunity to shape American policy?

If you answer yes to all three of these, then we will disagree. If you answer no, then I ask you to consider who shares your views.

• NDPhog

At this point, there are really no more than eight states that are going to matter, based on their battleground status and their electoral votes. These are the states we should be primarily focused on, over the next few weeks, and these are the states that McCain should be focused on, to varying degrees. The states are in three categories: Must Have, Nice to Have, and Needs to Have.

The first group, the Must Haves, are the *Big Red 3 battleground states: Ohio (where I live), Florida, and Virginia. * There is no realistic path to victory without all three of these states. This is nothing new, and we had hoped McCain would be up more (or at all) in each of these by now. It appears that Ohio and Florida are trending Red in the last 5 days. Virginia, however, has been between Obama +6 and Obama +10 over the last 10 days (although the only poll in the last 5 days shows a trend to McCain, that trend only gets to Obama +6). Virginia must go Red to win.

The Nice to Have is Pennsylvania. Assuming that the Big Red 3 all go to McCain, McCain remains 21 EV’s short of 270. PA provides that all by itself. Recent polls are about Obama +10, so that’s tough to overcome (though Kerry only beat Bush by 2 points). In some bizarro electoral world, I suppose it’s possible to lose Virginia and replace it with Pennsylvania, but I don’t see how that happens realistically. We really need someone to follow Murtha around with a microphone, to help with the “rednecks” in Western PA.

The Needs to Have group includes* Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. * Assuming that Virginia goes Red and PA stays Blue, McCain needs Missouri + 2 of the other 3 to get to 270. MO has a Suffolk poll on 10/17 – 10/19 with McCain +1 and a Fox/Rasmussen poll from 10/19 with Obama +5. This could be a nailbiter, but I look to anyone from Missouri to provide more information. Colorado has been pretty stable at Obama +5 over the last two weeks. Nevada has had Obama up between 2 and 5 points over the couple of weeks, though no poll in the last 5 days when McCain has started to make some inroads nationally. New Mexico hasn’t had a poll in over a week, but has Obama up between 5 – 13 points in the last few weeks (13 in the latest poll). New Hampshire could possibly replace NV or NM, as it went Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.

*
If anyone has their pulse on Virginia, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico or Nevada, I would appreciate diaries or comments. *

• NDPhog

One poll, Ohio Newspapers, has McCain up by 6 (48-42, nearly double the 3.3 MOE). It uses LV, and ran from 9/12 – 9/16. 23% of those polled said Obama’s race would hurt him, but 44% said McCain’s age would hurt him. Proving, of course, that Ohioans feel other Ohioans are ageists. Or not. Maybe a reverse Reagan effect, or something.

Other interesting details:

• McCain wins white voters 55-34, while Obama wins black voters 98-0. I can see where McCain’s supporters might be the ones voting on racial lines.
• McCain wins college graduates 58-38, Obama wins high school non-graduates 82-12. Clearly, the GOP consists solely of uneducated clingers of Bibles and Guns.
• The only region of the state that Obama wins is NE (Cleveland / Akron).
• Only 32% think that Obama is qualified to be President. That means, of course that more people would vote for him, than think he is qualified to be President. I think that says a lot about the “Anti-Bush, Anti-GOP” sentiment as opposed to the love for Obama.
• Over half think that they are better off (19% or the same 34%) than they were 4 years ago. That surprises me, honestly, and bodes well for McCain.
• 44% of GOP in the poll favor Universal Healthcare, even if it means higher taxes.
  Analysis of the Big Integer poll below:

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As Adam mentioned, there are two new Ohio polls are out today. The Insider Advantage poll has McCain up 1, 48-47 and the StrategicVisionpoll has McCain up 4, 48-44.

Looking at the InsiderAdvantage poll, there seems to be a few noteworthy items:

• First, it was 503 LV on 9/10, within the MOE.

• Obama wins 18-29 by only 14 points, McCain wins 30-44 by 20 points, and Obama wins 45-64 by 8 points. If McCain can come within 14 points in the under 30 group, I would think he’ll win Ohio handsomely, as that was Bush’s MOV in that group in 2004. Bush did win the 45-59 group by 5 points, so there is potential for Obama to do well, but I don’t see it that he’d be up 8 in that category.

• The African American and Hispanic breakdowns are either wrong or very strange. Obama is winning the AA vote by only 2-1 margin with only 71% accounted for in the poll. Obama is, however, shows as winning the Hispanic vote 88-9. That seems extremely high. For comparison, Bush received 16% of the AA vote and 35% of the Hispanic vote. I suspect an error, and that the numbers should be reversed.

• The sampling seems weighted to Democrats too heavily, as McCain is winning 91% of GOP, 15% of Dems, and is up 51-34 among independents (17 points!!). If McCain wins independents by 17, I think he’ll cruise, as Bush lost independents by a 59-40 margin. That would be a 46 point swing. Also, in 2004, there were 40% GOP and 35% Dem (25% Independent), but how much that number has changed, now, I don’t know.

The StrategicVision breakdown below the fold:

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A new Quinnipiac poll in today’s Cincinnati Enquirer shows Obama up 49-44 over McCain. A few highlights(Edited to show 5 point lead instead of 3):

· The poll was of 1,367 likely voters taken from 9/5 (Friday) – 9/9 (Tuesday).

· McCain wins over 34 years old by a few points, but loses the 18-34 vote by 64-33%. Will the “Youth Vote” materialize?

· They asked what chance do you have of changing your vote, and 15% overall said they might change their vote. McCain’s supporters said their minds were made up more often (85%) than Obama’s (81%).

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