House Minority Leader John Boehner made a comment late last week that raised an eyebrow or two:
When pressed for a number, Boehner said he believed the GOP could win as many as 100 seats in this fall’s elections.
“At least 100 seats,” Boehner said when asked how wide the playing field for districts is. “I do,” the top House Republican answered when asked if he thinks there are 100 seats in the U.S. “that could change hands.”
Much as I hate to contradict Rep. Boehner, we must fight inaccuracy in all its forms. There are not currently one hundred Democratic-held seats that could change hands, and he should have known better than to claim that in this media atmosphere.
There are currently only ninety-nine.The chart below compares data from two Cook Political Reports: the former is the first one Charlie Cook did after Election Day 2008, and the latter is the latest one, as of 8 AM Monday morning, 05/03/2010. Cook divides up seats by the below rankings, plus two more (“Safe Democratic” and “Safe Republican”). Essentially, if a seat shows up on the list, the seat ‘could change hands’ under the right circumstances.
| 11/13/2008 | 4/29/2010 | Difference | ||||
| Cook Rank | Dem | Rep | Dem | Rep | Dem | Rep |
| Likely D | 28 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Lean D | 18 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Dem TU | 2 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 24 | 0 |
| Rep TU | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 |
| Lean R | 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 |
| Likely R | 0 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 2 | -12 |
| Total | 48 | 34 | 99 | 17 | 51 | -17 |
| Total, Comp | 20 | 10 | 62 | 5 | 42 | -5 |
So, two things from this chart:
- Boehner was being almost perfectly accurate. 99% accurate, at least, and according to at least one respected national political prognosticator. Between a third and half of the Democratic caucus have non-safe seats (as opposed to less to one-tenth of the GOP caucus); and almost 40% of Democratic-held seats are seriously vulnerable (the Republican equivalent is 3%). And this is six months in.
- The situation has steadily decayed for the Democratic Party. Not much to say about that, except that there’s been no sign that the erosion has been reversed, stopped, or even slowed down.
So that’s why Boehner said that. Allahpundit’s a little worried that only getting, say, 55 when we appear to be talking about 100 will make our victory look smaller than it is; to which I say, we’ll just have to live with that, and I suspect that we’ll bear up well under the strain. After all, a 55 seat shift will mean that the House Democratic leadership roster will look like their caucus had a bout with the plague…
Moe Lane
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
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There's 253 Dem Seats...
jcincy Monday, May 3rd at 9:17AM EST (link)… according to wikipedia.
A lot can happen between now and November.
“Providence has given to our people the choice of their rulers, and it is the duty, as well as the privilege and interest of our Christian nation, to select and prefer Christians for their rulers.” — John Jay
Actually, By My Count, There Are *Over* 100!
IJB Monday, May 3rd at 9:20AM EST (link)If the national swing the the GOP is 8%, there’s something like 116 currently Dem-held seats that the GOP would be capable of picking up (assuming they won all of the available options). (Now I haven’t looked at all of these districts to double-check that the GOP has candidates in all 116; but, this year, I feel pretty confident that there probably are close to that…)
And it’d be even more than 116 if the swing is more than R+8%.
120 has been my number for a while
Darin_H (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 11:15AM EST (link)and yet I still don’t see the Senate flipping (though we’ll gain 8 seats to make it darn close and take it back in 2012).
But still – 120 seats. i.e. HALF of the Democrat seats will go bye bye.
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Senate Majority
massconservative Monday, May 3rd at 3:17PM EST (link)Just curious on the Senate rules in terms of majority. I keep hearing that the Republicans must flip 10 seats to gain the majority.
As I understand it today there are 41 Republicans, 57 Dems, and 2 independents (who caucus with Dems). Wouldn’t that mean that the Republicans would only have to pick up 9 seats to be the Majority party? (50 R, 48 D, 2 I). If it is 10 and not 9 why is that?
Tiebreaker
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 3:23PM EST (link)Joe Biden breaks ties.
We need to go +10, but right now we’re looking at +7 as a realistic upper bound I think.
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Nope - RCP Has Us a +8 In The 'No Tossups' Scenario (nt)
IJB Monday, May 3rd at 3:32PM EST (link)Not what I'm talking about (nt)
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 3:45PM EST (link)RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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That said
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 3:24PM EST (link)+9 would be enough if Joementum flipped. Whether we want him is another matter.
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Didn't he vote for HCR
earlgrey (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:00PM EST (link)No way! We don’t want that!
Senate Majority...
jcincy Monday, May 3rd at 3:49PM EST (link)Unfortunately, it depends how many turncoats show up after the election. Party affiliation means little to some of these Senators. It’s all about power.
To get a majority, the Republicans must hit at least 51 with an R behind their name. The “I”s and the current VP side with the Dems. (And unfortunately, so do a couple of the Rs).
So not only do we need 10 seats… but replacing a few wishy-washy Republicans would go a long way to bringing order to the upper chamber.
“Providence has given to our people the choice of their rulers, and it is the duty, as well as the privilege and interest of our Christian nation, to select and prefer Christians for their rulers.” — John Jay
"...over 100"
akuzma Monday, May 3rd at 3:30PM EST (link)“That number seems a bit high to me. How many Senate seats do you think the Republicans can win?
Lets make sure
abeldred (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:21AM EST (link)that there is no remedy for the “plague” that will afflict the Democrat Caucus. It is incumbent on all groups conservative to insure victory in November. We must come together as AMERICANS to defeat the tyranny and evil in our midst. Should various Conservative groups decide to splinter off because they can’t find a “pure” enough candidate, we will defeat ourselves. While we need to be discriminating in evaluating the voting records and principles of each candidate, clearly we must move to a united stand once all of the primaries have concluded.
I can't understand your graph and how you got to 99 nt
houstoneagle (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:27AM EST (link)“We preach the conservative gospel of individual liberty and choice and point out the only choice the Democrats want you to have is whether or not to kill a baby.”–Erick Erickson, D-Day 2010
reading further...
houstoneagle (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:30AM EST (link)what does “total, comp” mean? And I see the 99 but what about the -17?
“We preach the conservative gospel of individual liberty and choice and point out the only choice the Democrats want you to have is whether or not to kill a baby.”–Erick Erickson, D-Day 2010
The -17 represents the shift in GOP not-safe seats...
Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:43AM EST (link)…between November 2008 and now. In short: we’ve cut our vulnerable seats in half while the Democrats have doubled/tripled theirs.
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thanks but what does "comp" mean nt
houstoneagle (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:58AM EST (link)“We preach the conservative gospel of individual liberty and choice and point out the only choice the Democrats want you to have is whether or not to kill a baby.”–Erick Erickson, D-Day 2010
"Competitive." NT
Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 10:43AM EST (link)NT
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thank you kind sir
houstoneagle (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 5:48PM EST (link)Things are definitely trending our way. It’s a shame that some are using this site to advocate for armed rebellion when we are on the cusp of peaceful democratic means to stop Obama’s agenda in its tracks through takeover of Pelosi’s gavel.
“We preach the conservative gospel of individual liberty and choice and point out the only choice the Democrats want you to have is whether or not to kill a baby.”–Erick Erickson, D-Day 2010
Don't threadjack.
Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:10PM EST (link)Don’t argue with me about it, either.
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Ok, but suppose
tngal (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 1:42PM EST (link)someone on the dem side whose not scheduled for re-elect until 2012 throws their hands up in disgust or otherwise leaves office, it could force a state to hold a special election in Novmber even if they hadn’tt planned on one.
Remember – the FL 19 race was ti fill the Wexler seat who moved in to the O adminstration. The PA 12 is to fill the seat of murtha (deceased), and HI-01 to fill Abercrombie’s spot whose running for gov. Lots of possibilities on how we might get another special election called to coincide with the November races. .
Plus, we can dream that someone over there will pull a Parker Griffith and switch in mid-stream. If O keeps pushing it might just happen.
(Alright maybe not the 100 Boehner’s dreaming of but hey, he’s dreaming big)
I'm Betting On at Least 2 Special Senate Elections Before 2012...
IJB Monday, May 3rd at 3:07PM EST (link)…Due to deaths or resignations.
So, yeah. good point.
(Can you *imagine* what a Special Senate Election in WV in 2011 will look like if the Senate is deadlocked 50-50 after November?!…)
50/50 isn't a deadlock
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 3:25PM EST (link)50/50 just means Joe Biden has to stay in town for important votes.
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Think About It Neil...
IJB Monday, May 3rd at 3:31PM EST (link)Let’s say it’s 50-50 after November – you’re right: Joe Biden would give the Dems nominal control of the chamber.
Then someone like Byrd dies in 2011 – the Dems would be down to 49 seats, and if they *fail to win* that Special, the GOP would go up 51-49 after the Special Election and would retake the Senate.
That’s why any special Senate elections in 2011 are likely to be a war of nuclear attrition(!!) between the parties – the odds of the Senate being 51D-49R, or even 50D-50R, after November are quite good right now, which means both parties will put *everything* they have into any Special Senate Elections next year!
yeah neil, and what about NY 29
tngal (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 8:08PM EST (link)this is the Paterson debacle where he has absolutely refused to call a S.E. to fill Eric Massa’s seat. I saw last week where the GOP is threatening to sue but by the time it gets thru court it’ll be november anyway.. Oh come on now. Aren’t we close to 100 yet? IJB has the calculator out and bookies in Vegas are drooling.
How close are we?
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:18PM EST (link)It’s early. I have Cook showing us +20, but he’s conservative about his picks and there’s a long way to go.
At this point in 2008 he had D+5 and they ended up +21.
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It's Only +20 Right Now...
IJB Monday, May 3rd at 10:53PM EST (link)…Because most states haven’t even gotten through the primary process yet.
Once many more GOP general election candidates are settled on, and things like fund-raising and general election aptitude can be properly appraised, the number of districts that Cook rates as “competitive” will surely increase.
Yup (nt)
Neil Stevens (Diary) Tuesday, May 4th at 10:40AM EST (link)RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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Moe, realistically I think we might see 44 to 45 seats
kyle8 (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 6:16PM EST (link)change hands, which would be about double the usual for the out of power party in a mid term election. But we might not do as well in the Senate.
Not trying to squash anyone’s hopes but although the GOP is set to win pretty big, things will tighten up before November. and remember the Donks still have a lot of built in constituencies.
Also, if any race is close, they will try to steal it.
“Nothing works like freedom, Nothing succeeds like liberty”
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well if they are anything like the UK Tories (and they are)
Doc Holliday (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 6:23PM EST (link)they will find a way to minimize their momentum and get the least they should have got.
Molon Labe!
I'll Take The 'Over' (nt)
IJB Monday, May 3rd at 8:01PM EST (link)We all hope you win that bet -nt
Doc Holliday (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:26PM EST (link)Molon Labe!
It's weird, kyle8: everybody who looks at this stuff...
Moe Lane (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:36PM EST (link)…seems to have the same reaction: “What? It can’t be that bad.” I mean, I know that it’s bizarre to think that we’re on track to have an epic-level flip of the House. Surely the Democrats will correct course.
Surely.
Yup.
Any minute now.
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agreed moe. There's only 2 ways we can p/u that many seats
tngal (Diary) Monday, May 3rd at 9:52PM EST (link)Either the dems do nothing from here on out or….the dems do something. If they do nothing, we’re in a cakewalk.
And if they do something…anything…force a crappy bill (all their bills are crappy) put out false ads against opponents.. (sure bet to occur) …downplay a major event( (like the ft. hood terrorism)..ignore our allies (israel)…infighting (list too big)..hmmm did I miss anything? Whatever they do we can throw it right back at them.
They can stop right now in the middle of the road and we’ll run them over. If they continue down the same road they’re on, we’ll…run them over.
Mission Accomplished
elrayb (Diary) Tuesday, May 4th at 10:43AM EST (link)he sparked discussion and added fear to the already shaky Democrat Party and maybe he is counting seats that will change to new Democrats as well. Or he was looking ahead to improving current projections, at least he is being aggressive and that is good to see for once.
We need to be more on the offense instead of in defensive mode all of the time, there are outlets to get the message out and we need to use them.