Health care reconciliation is an exercise in futility.


Ed Morrissey sums up his major counter-argument thusly to Andy McCarthy’s argument that progressive Democrats are ready to trade control of Congress in exchange for imposing health care rationing on the populace:

Andy may be right that Democratic leadership has made the decision that political oblivion is an acceptable cost for a one-time remaking of America that Republicans will find difficult to reverse in the next session.  However, I suspect that this strategy doesn’t account for the fact that the people who will actually have to end their careers may not appreciate getting forced into marching off a cliff while the leadership stays safely in their rear-echelon bastions of San Francisco and New York City.

…and I’d like to add my two cents: it won’t work anyway.  People like to talk about how government programs and agencies never die, once instituted, with the Great Society and the New Deal being the most used examples.  What’s not mentioned is that both of those programs were popular.  People wanted a Social Security program.  They wanted Medicare.  They do not notably want this monstrosity of a health care bill*.  And if the Democrats decide to (and manage to) force it down our throats anyway, Republican legislators will find a way to shut it down in January 2011.  The government has had over two and a quarter centuries to develop bylaws, operational procedures, codicils, and whatnot; there is always going to be a legislative fig leaf, suitable for framing and rationalization.

I consider this bill dead.  But if the Democrats are so determined to resurrect it, fine: we’ll just prune their internal power structure down to the roots in November and kill the bill again in January.  In fact, that sounds kind of fun.

Moe Lane

*They like individual aspects of the bill; but they don’t want the whole package.  But don’t let me stop anybody from advocating their particular religious beliefs.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.


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Did people really want Medicare?

rbc Saturday, February 27th at 12:41PM EST (link)

I think I agree with what you’re saying, but I thought that Ronald Reagan fought hard against the creation of Medicare by calling it socialized medicine, and it was denounced by the American Medical Association and others.

Reagan wasn't pres. when Medicare was created

renny (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 4:04PM EST (link)

It was done by Johnson and a Dem. Cong. but with Rep. bipartisanship in 1964–it was promoted as a monument to JFK who had just, been assassinated the previous Nov., 1963–despite being fought by the AMA and cons. across the nation.

You are both right! nt

mikerazar (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 9:44PM EST (link)

We have a nation to save, people.

 
 
 

Right-On, Moe

reaganiterepublicanresistance Saturday, February 27th at 12:48PM EST (link)

If passed, a pledge to repeal ObamaCare would likely become the litmus test for GOP candidates- most people would be demanding it one would think

 

I hope you are right, but

earlgrey (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 12:52PM EST (link)

Everything I read is pretty gloomy.

Now people who used to say I was over -reacting are agreeing with me about the dangers of Obama.

 

Double 'Right On!' Moe

IJB Saturday, February 27th at 12:58PM EST (link)

You get at the heart what the Chicken Littles on our side miss – no program like this has even been passed in this way. No bill this massive, and this unpopular, has ever been passed AGAINST the wishes of the American people.

There is NO parallel to SS, Medicare or even the Great Society.

If, by some miracle, this passes (and I don’t really think it will), it will be repealed by a GOP Congress so fast everyone’s head’s will swim.

There will be a POPULAR MANDATE to do so. Even if Commie Obama attempted to veto an outright repeal (which would probably plunge his approval numbers into the 30s), there is very little he could do if a GOP House DEFUNDED the program. (What’s Obama going to do – shutdown the Government and deny seniors their Social Security checks to try and keep a single program afloat that 60% of the electorate HATES?! That would be a laugh!)

Zeroing out funding for a program basically makes it a ghost – it’s like it never existed. If all else failed, the GOP could do that, until they could pass a formal repeal after a GOP President is elected.

The Dems are kamikaze to even go forward with this at this point. But you can’t tell a Leftie when they’re being suicidal, I guess!…

 

They're counting on it not negatively impacting the folks for 4 or 5 years.

Vegas_Rick (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 1:04PM EST (link)

But I think Moe is correct. WHEN we get the reins back we’ll simply point out the disaster on the horizon for seniors and others who will pay through the nose for reduced access and quality.

“God is great, beer is good and people are crazy.”- Billy Currington

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge.

 

obama, reid and pelosi got a full body slam for their lies on Thursday and don't have the VOTES. NT

bobojake (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 1:37PM EST (link)

Ya know what? there is only one reason

77redcounties Saturday, February 27th at 1:43PM EST (link)

this Nobamacare has not passed, they simply do not have the votes. All these deadlines, we will pass this next week, no next week , no next week, if they had the votes why would they not pass it? Wisdom says if ya got it , do it, they don’t have it.

Oklahoma. 77 counties, all red last election, only state in the union with not a single blue county. We are not only fly over, we are fly around.
The art of government is to make two-thirds of a nation pay all it possibly can pay for the benefit of the other third.
Voltaire

 

Republican legislators will find a way...

stratdaddy Saturday, February 27th at 2:09PM EST (link)

And so will the states. Ballot initiatives aimed at protecting the individual’s right to choose their own health care seem to be popping up everywhere. Just a quick google turned up proposals in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota (really?), and I’m currently investigating what’s up in Michigan. Our filing deadline for legislative proposals is May 26, kind of tight if nothing is organized yet, but doable. Federalism just might be making a come back. It’s been noted elsewhere, this is a solid 10th amendment issue. The states are well within their rights to just say no to Obamacare.

 

re: health care

neoavatara (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 2:29PM EST (link)

Control of the House is essential. We can starve the program to oblivion if need be. The power of the purse is important. And the public will be on our side for this…we give them a choice of tax increases or health care, the debate will end quickly.

www.neoavatara.com/blog

 

Sure thing

Thomas_Hauber Saturday, February 27th at 2:51PM EST (link)

If the Dems decide to try reconciliation they will ensure a switch of the house to the Republicans. And probably loose at least two more senate seats.

 

I hope you are correct...

neomom Saturday, February 27th at 3:04PM EST (link)

But, I really think they don’t care anymore, they’ll do it anyway.

 

Pelosi's aides are saying

earlgrey (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 3:16PM EST (link)

They are ” reasonably confident” they can pass the bill. I am clinging to the hope that democrat congresscritters will do the right thing. How is that for desparate?

When you work for "Stretch" Pelosi

undergroundconservative Saturday, February 27th at 9:42PM EST (link)

you tow her line or get canned. “Reasonably confident” leaves a lot of room for “interpretation” and, translated, means “not likely.”

If the toadies were “reasonably confident” as you or I would mean it, as in we’re “reasonably confident” that the sun is going to rise tomorrow morning, they would be giving you the timeline for the vote to be taken, not a bunch of doublespeak.

“Reasonably” allows for the “extraordinarily unlikely” (when talking to Stretch, anyway) event that some unforeseen calamity (like the the yet unseen memo on VA, NJ, and MA) ends up interefering with her generational fantasy of socializing the USA.

Mmmm, yes, elections DO have consequences!

Take heart in their c.y.a. language!

 
 

On Rush the other day

izoneguy (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 3:24PM EST (link)

A patent attorney/medical doctor (what a combo) was saying that many of her doctor clients were quitting their medical practice. She said the developers of meds were cutiing back to the bone in anticipation of ObamaCare.

The socialists realize the destruction that ObamaCare will bring and they are feeling fine. Now those of you looking for a qualified doctor that is still in business by 2012 may not feel so fine.

The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.

 

Moe Lane is optimistic about health care, but they aren't stupid, so what's up?

archer52 Saturday, February 27th at 3:40PM EST (link)

I wish I could share Lane’s optimism. The issue here is that for some reason beyond good sense, the leadership is still forcing healthcare onto the nation. They know something we don’t. They have gone beyond the “bluff” that federal politicians usually try in order to rope in weak-kneed pols like McCain and Snowe.

Can the Democratic leadership persuade enough selfish politicians to end their careers? That is the question and only the actions of the likes of Nelson and Lincoln will tell.

They probably couldn't convince them to end their careers

Leopard1996 (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 3:55PM EST (link)

But they could convince them that their careers will only take a temporary hiatus, while this bill starts doing it’s work and then when the mechanisms that are in this bill ultimately collapse, they will be looked at to be the saviors and then the only option will be single payer.

“The accumluated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the whores and politicians will look up and shout, “Save Us!”….and I’ll look down and whisper, “No”…The Watchmen

 
 

Two points on this:

eburke (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 3:46PM EST (link)

a) if they had the votes, they’d be in session at this moment passing the steaming pile; and,

b) legislation passed via reconciliation cannot be permanent in nature (that’s why it’s always been reserved for budgetary-type legislation). That is why the death tax ‘reform’ and Bush’s tax cuts are expiring in 2011. Not only will large chunks of this reform not even be *eligible* for reconciliation (and there better be GOP senators standing there with ‘point of order’ inquiries till the cows come home or November 2 which ever comes first), but even whatever *might* pass under reconciliation will by necessity have an expiration date.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

The scary part isn't the reconcilation piece

jaykali (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 3:54PM EST (link)

The scary part is that the senate bill could be passed today if they had the votes and that’s bad enough. And that doesn’t have anything to do with reconcilation tho I agree that the house does not and will not have the votes.

Reconciliation still plays into that.

The_Gadfly (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 6:03PM EST (link)

If they had the votes to pass the Senate version, they would have already. The House wants changes to the bill, which is why they are talking reconciliation.

As I see it, there are two problems with the current situation:

1) Unless you are driving Charlie Sheen’s car from The Wraith, playing chicken is never a safe game.

2) All of the discussions by polls professional and amateur assume a rational counterpart. The Big 0, Pelosi, and Reid are not rational. The open question is whether or not there are enough rational people among the elected Democrats to make this approach productive.

On the bright side, I think Moe is right that we might be able to repeal it if it passes. Which might turn out to be brighter than we expect because it could be the tipping point for repealing other crap that doesn’t work.

 
 
 

I do think it would be hard to undo if it gets 'did'

jaykali (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 3:52PM EST (link)

We are not going to be able to get the same President to sign a bill that undoes all or some of the bill after he signs it into law and it will take supermajorities.

The moderate democrats are being purged and will be replaced by republicans in the next election. To overturn the health care bill we’d need a republican president and a fillibuster proof senate and that’s not easy to do. There aren’t going to be 10 moderate democrats left to sign on to a repeal, the only ones left will be liberals even if it’s in the low 40′s that’s still enough for a fillibuster.

All that being said I will not worry ab that right now bc I think reconciliation for a bill like this is not going to happen bc they don’t have the votes in the house. You are going to start hearing muttering from various factions in the house come out and say they can’t vote for the bill, it will only take a few but it will probably be several and that means it’s dead. Give it a couple weeks tops.

As little chance as there is right now to get this thing

eburke (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 4:12PM EST (link)

passed, there will be even fewer votes for this thing in the House if House members aren’t convinced that the Senate will ‘improve’ it via the reconciliation process. The ability to get the Senate bill through the House depends on having enough House members believe that the Senate will ‘fix’ it during reconciliation.

Considering how low in esteem the Senate is to many of the House “progressives”, that is one of many reasons why SanFranNan ain’t got the votes right now. She’s walked them off the plank a couple of times now. Don’t think they’re too interested in sticking their necks out again.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 

I agree, As long as Obama rules, we'll be stuck with the taxes if not the healthcare for the next three years. Is that the goal?

archer52 Saturday, February 27th at 4:48PM EST (link)

The taxes come first, then supposedly the benefits. That means more money goes into the empty coffers of the fed. govt., which is a good thing for them. The argument they will make in four years is that we have been paying into the system for years, are we willing to sack it and not get anything back? (Remember, “free” is a powerful tool for persuading weak minded greedy people to vote for their favorite politician.)

So, they win by getting the extra cash, AND they put themselves in a good position for arguing keeping something in effect.

 
 

No one will see the "benefits" of Obamanationcare until 1213

renny (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 4:13PM EST (link)

because all that kicks in immediately is the fees, taxes, and surcharges that are needed up front for several years so the Dems. could lie and say the costs wouldn’t bankrupt the nation, when even though there are 3-4 years of accumulated revenues/payments ahead of time, even the CBO has always come close to $1 trillion in the first years, no matter how the numbers are finagled. Medicare was underestimated by 9 times within three years of its operation and has done nothing but increase ever since.

Therefore, voters will not immediately see any positive results they might somehow like and appreciate after the bill(s) passes, so they’ll forget the Dems. acted in deliberate, arrogant, sneering, intransigent denial of the people’s will and fall in love with the total invasion of the most personal aspects of their lives by the federal gov’t.

And no bill/law can commit a future Cong. not to change law, ergol the touted idea that once O’care passes no one can change the law in the future is a lie.

That's why they are desparate to pass now, for the money.

Common_Cents (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 4:45PM EST (link)

Do people actually think they’ll really fund health care even if it passed? The money collected in the few years even before benefits kick in will be used to fund other crap. We’ll be in a crisis from day one of benefits kicking in, in this case, a double crisis.

Obama=Golfer in Chief, Leading from, behind, the Back Nine.
Leaders don’t create movements. Movements create leaders. Get involved. Your future depends on it.
Govt “invests” YOUR tax money for POLITICAL return rather than economic return.

 
 

"Republican legislators will find a way to shut it down in January 2011."

Dave Saturday, February 27th at 4:29PM EST (link)

Not unless they get enough seats in both houses to override Obama’s vetoes they won’t, and that is not mathematically possible next November as only 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection.

The first real crack the repubs are going to get at CommieCare will not come until January of 2013 (almost three years from now), and then only if they don’t manage to screw things up and get blown out in the 2012 election.

Given the total lack of leadership that is still present in the GOP just nine months out from a midterm election, one that is quite possibly the most important in our nation’s history, I am not exactly optimistic.

If this hideous thing does manage to become law, it will be so bureaucratically entrenched by 2013 a track-hoe the size of Mt. Fuji will be unable to rip it out.

-Dave

Our elected representatives have failed us.

Are you the Dave from Newsbusters?

earlgrey (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 5:09PM EST (link)

Just curious

earlgrey,

Dave Saturday, February 27th at 5:37PM EST (link)

Yep, that would be me.

-Dave

Our elected representatives have failed us.

Ok. I feel like a nerd now

earlgrey (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 6:39PM EST (link)

Guess I have been reading too much of this stuff.

 
 
 

Ah, The 'Chicken Little' Contingent Arrives, On Cue (nt)

IJB Saturday, February 27th at 6:09PM EST (link)

I guess I am a bit of a Chicken Little or Eeyore too, but

earlgrey (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 6:44PM EST (link)

I will say this. We as a nation have been accepting progressivism for far too long. If (and that is a huge IF) we can get away from the Obama/Pelosi/Reid 3-way rule without too much damage, than we have a real chance to speak for conservative values.

As a conservative, even I am shocked at the corrruption and meaness of unchecked liberalism. Keith Olbermann has pracitcally turned himself into some kind of cartoon character = too bad to be believed.

This had to happen to wake america up, but the question is did we still miss the bus.

 

Okay, IJB, suppose you tell us how the repubs would shut it down

Dave Sunday, February 28th at 3:15PM EST (link)

…assuming ObamaCare passes, without the votes to override Obama’s vetoes?

Just putting more republican fannies in the seats isn’t going to be enough.

-Dave

Our elected representatives have failed us.

Try Reading All The Comments To a Diary, First, And Then Get Back To Us

IJB Sunday, February 28th at 6:59PM EST (link)

I spelled out exactly how to do that upthread.

But you seems to be more interested in whining about how “nothing can be done”, so go ahead an have at it, and leave the tactical planning to the rest of us…

I am too busy trying to save my economic ass to read entire threads

Dave Thursday, March 11th at 2:34AM EST (link)

Should CommieCare pass, there will be no repealing it come January of 2013.

-Dave

Our elected representatives have failed us.

 

I will ask you just once more, IJB

Dave Thursday, March 11th at 3:04AM EST (link)

Just how will the repubs repeal CommieCare once it becomes law., 2.5 years hence?

Ain’t gonna happen.

Never.

-Dave

Our elected representatives have failed us.

 
 
 
 

our best hope

sta46 Saturday, February 27th at 8:09PM EST (link)

lies with Bart Stupak.

That is true, but I am not sure that he

earlgrey (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 8:20PM EST (link)

Will vote against this bill. He supports national health care and this is it. Another thought. How many of the dems are mad at Obama for pushing this.

 
 
 

Healthcare cannot be changed after passed?

phototiger Saturday, February 27th at 6:12PM EST (link)

I recall reading, in either the House or Senate version of the healthcare bill, language that said that it would be irrevocable and that it couldn’t be repealled once it was passed. Unfortunately, I can’t find that now (and if you know where it was, please let me know), but that seems childish as well as unconstitutional, as I see it.

Yes, that is unconstitutional. No politician can pass a law that cannot be repealed.

archer52 Saturday, February 27th at 6:44PM EST (link)

If it was possible, I’d pass one say no more glib, black, lawyers from Haaarvard can run for President. For that matter, no lawyers could be in Congress or in the White House. We’ve allowed that for too long and see where it has gotten us.

I can't say I don't understand your sentiment,

Lycurgus Saturday, February 27th at 8:19PM EST (link)

but we do need people who have some experience with how the laws function writing the laws (especially the federal criminal laws)… while there are doubtlessly horrendous side effects of having attorneys write the laws which govern themselves, ultimately we shouldn’t look to excluding good men with solid convictions merely because many people within their profession have the moral fortitude of John Edwards.

If to please the people we offer what we ourselves disapprove, how then shall we stand? Let us raise a standard to which the wise and honest can repair; the rest is in the hands of God. ~George Washington

 
 

harry reid

sta46 Saturday, February 27th at 7:58PM EST (link)

put a clause in the senate bill which states, in part, that the commissiom (translate death panels) need a 67 vote super majority in the senate to be repealed.
i’m really surprised the repubs haven’t made more of this little factoid.

 
 

I think this monstrosity will be

nancylee Saturday, February 27th at 7:09PM EST (link)

Tied up in court for a while if it passes. There’s a lot in it that doesn’t pass the constitutional test if you ask me.

I’m still scared to death of it. I think this is O’s way of attacking the older citizens who are the most likely to vote against his Utopian plans.

anything which consumes 1/6 of our total economy

sta46 Saturday, February 27th at 8:07PM EST (link)

should be a cabinet position rather than an appointee..
my $$$ is on the marxist appointing Ezekiel Emmanuel who signed onto a position paper last January supporting eugenics and assigning Quality points to each person “applying” for a procedure. the paper says flat out that if you are old you will get nothing because any $$$ spent on a procedure for you would be a waste because you are going to die soon anyway.
Also there would be no $$$ for babies because ” the State doesn’t have anything “invested in them’ till they are older and have been to school” etc. Also, you can kiss goodbye any $$$ for special needs. they would not be able to “contribute” enough to ” society” to make them worthy of any extra $$$.
This is right out there, folks, in black and white and available for you to read for yourselves..

 

The problem with that

Menlo (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 10:15PM EST (link)

There is a lot in the federal court system that doesn’t pass the constitutional test either.

Federal judges are no better than Congress in determining Constitutionality.

“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter

 
 

They don't even have a bill yet

Menlo (Diary) Saturday, February 27th at 9:50PM EST (link)

It’s a bit too soon to tell, so I give it at least a 50/50 chance. I suspect the house will need the reconciliation bill modifying the Senate bill (a sort of “trigger” mechanism) to be fully voted on before they vote for the Senate bill.

If such a bill ever comes out, then I would guess passage is inevitable. The solution, as I’ve said before, is for all of us to commit to not buying or accepting anything called health insurance or paying the fines. Do note that the senate version bars the federal government from doing anything to those who fail to pay fines.

“The ultimate touchstone of constitutionality is the Constitution itself and not what we have said about it.” -Felix Frankfurter