Meet fourteen worrying Democrats.


List extrapolated from here from Reid Wilson:

Candidate District PVI Cook Rating
Mike Ross AR-04 R+7 Likely Dem
Allan Boyd FL-02 R+6 Likely Dem
Alan Grayson FL-08 R+2 Toss-Up
Suzanne Kosmas FL-24 R+4 Lean Dem
Sanford Bishop GA-02 D+1 Safe Dem
Bill Foster IL-14 R+1 Lean Dem
Frank Kratovil MD-01 R+13 Toss-Up
Ike Skelton MO-04 R+14 Lean Dem
Earl Pomeroy ND-AL R+10 Lean Dem
Dina Titus NV-03 D+2 Toss-Up
Mike McMahon NY-13 R+4 Lean Dem
Michael Arcuri NY-24 R+2 Lean Dem
Chris Carney PA-10 R+8 Lean Dem
Ciro Rodriguez TX-23 R+4 Likely Dem

…and the reason that you can tell that they’re worrying is because everyone on that list commissioned a poll in the last three months of 2009. Reid explains why this is interesting:

Some political professionals advising their clients have told them to hold off conducting polls until this 3-month period, when the health care debate calms down. Dems saw a demonstrable drop in support during the final half of the year, thanks to health care, and polling during such a turbulent time gives unnecessarily worrying, or inaccurate, results.

Which last may or may not be true; but it still begs the question why these fourteen are worrying. Aside from the fact that they’re all in competitive districts.  And that all but one of them is in a race rated as competitive.  And that more than half of them are already at serious risk of losing their jobs.  And that it’s turning out to be a bad year to be an incumbent Democrat.  Other than that, no worries, yes?

Yes, ‘worry’ is an interesting word, ‘isn’t it?  It originally meant ‘to strangle,’ you know.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.


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The trajectory is all good.

IronDioPriest (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 6:54PM EST (link)

Now in the mean-time, if we can just help the GOP establishment understand that the people are going to guide them along, and to trust us.

No more Dede Scuzzies or endorsements of Crist when Rubio’s campaign hasn’t gotten off the ground. Let us guide you, or pay the political price.

“If we finally fail in this great and glorious contest, it will be by bewildering ourselves in groping for the middle way.”

-John Adams, 1776

Join in the conservative forum discussion at “It’s About Liberty”: http://www.itsaboutliberty.com

 

Arcuri is right to worry.

Brian_Roastbeef (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:14PM EST (link)

Richard Hanna has decided he would run again in NY-24. In 2008, as an incumbent (Arcuri won the seat in ’06) Arcuri only beat Hanna 52-48. This is in New York State in a heavy Dem. year, with a still widely liked Barack Obama on the ticket.

In 2010, a Republican year with Obama hurting Democrat incumbents more than helping, an unpopular Democrat governor in Albany, and the specter of Obamacare hanging over mid-term elections, Arcuri is not in any sort of position that I would envy. He has to justify the extreme left Pelosi agenda to the moderate-conservatives in economically struggling Rome and Utica.

Richard Hanna is one of the few good points for the GOP in this state right about now. I hope he gets some financial support from the national party, because this seat should be an easy pickup opportunity.

 

In other, even better news

In The Hook (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:18PM EST (link)

h/t to Geraghty over at the Campaign Spot. Apparently the GOP is adopting a modified version of Dean’s 50-state strategy. Except instead of a heavy top-down organization, this strategy is emerging organically by candidates doing great fundraising work on their own. Oh the parallels to capitalism’s apparent chaos actually creating efficiency versus socialism’s apparent order creating inefficiency are strident…

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2010/02/expanded-playing-field-126-gop-house-candidates-have-100kplus.html

For those who don’t want to bother with the link, here’s the skinny:

…126 House Republican challengers — that’s those running in open seats or against Democratic incumbents — reported having at least $100,000 in their campaign accounts. Forty-two of those have at least $200,000, and 10 have at least $500,000.

There’s some overlap in competitive primaries. But the numbers generally support the view voiced by Republicans that they expect to put between 80 and 90 Democratic-held seats in play.

“Hello? You play to win the game.”
Support conservatives that can win.
http://www.marcorubio.com

 

Oh and check my favorite challenger's stats..

In The Hook (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:19PM EST (link)

Allen West, running against Ron Klein in the FL-22 race for the second cycle in a row, has $707,000+ and no debt. I think it’s time to put this one on the “races to watch” list.

“Hello? You play to win the game.”
Support conservatives that can win.
http://www.marcorubio.com

Oh, I want him to win.

itrytobenice (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:33PM EST (link)

That guy is a tea party hero!!

Proper grammar saves lives.

Let’s eat Grandma.
Let’s eat, Grandma.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

The problem

chabsentia Saturday, February 6th at 12:54AM EST (link)

The problem is that the people are gullible ,mosinofrmed and uninformed. Thr politicians dont resond because the majority of voters have been returning 90% of the incumbents for the last twenty years. They dont think that November will be any different and they are probably right. You have to be gullible to think that tax cuts are responsible for the economic mess instead of a Housing and Credit bubble.

 
 

Klein should lose

gemimail Wednesday, February 3rd at 2:11PM EST (link)

We rate the chances of his doing so at 61.2% at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

 
 

My Congressman to hate, Ciro D Rodriguez is worried

Richard Mullins (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:33PM EST (link)

by rights he should since the Republican Party of Texas has a target on his back. I’ve been hope for a long time he would be gone(I had to start dealing with him in 1997, lose a primary in 2004 and when I get redistricted in 2006, I had to deal with him again. Thank goodness, I live in a Safe Republican seat[TX-02]). The last time I saw him in person he didn’t seem worried at all. In fact, he was quite giddy.

Richard Phillip Mullins BlogThe Squash Satire SiteNews on Happy Jet Airlines
Rmullins Pics
Rpmullins Twitter

Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.

Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.

We seem to have a decent candidate against Rodriguez

zbigreddogz (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:36PM EST (link)

Quico Canseco has a lot of money and seems to be running a vigorous campaign.

I know he lost the primary last cycle, but he seems dedicated and this is a year in which he could easily win. Hope he does.

“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson

Well he won the Primary for TX-28 in 2004

Richard Mullins (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:46PM EST (link)

before I got redistricted to TX-23. That year it went down to August before the Democrats knew how that going to have a candidate(Runoff between Ciro D Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar). He was doing a slow start then but I’m sure he’s kicked in to high gear. I keep a link to his Campaign site on my main blog. There is nothing better than to see Ciro have to walk to work. Hehehehehehehehe. It’s just really funny.

Richard Phillip Mullins BlogThe Squash Satire SiteNews on Happy Jet Airlines
Rmullins Pics
Rpmullins Twitter

Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.

Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.

 
 

How does Ciro lose?

texasgalt (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:50PM EST (link)

Wow, with Del Rio, Eagle Pass and North San Antonio in his district, a loss by
Rodriguez would be another shocker. Madame Pelosi is sending him the cash.

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Well the Bulls' Eye's on him

Richard Mullins (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 8:02PM EST (link)

Courtesy of the Republican Party of Texas. I think I’m keeping my eye on TX-23 and TX-29. Both could flip with the right help. BTW, TX-23 had Bonilla for years and getting Republican votes in Uvalde is hard too. Most of North San Antonio and Helotes is easy to get GOP votes, provided we get good turn out. The sticking point is always the Democratic machine of South Bexar County. Get good Donk turnout there and it’s going to be hard. I know that the lay of the land very well since I lived there for years.

Richard Phillip Mullins BlogThe Squash Satire SiteNews on Happy Jet Airlines
Rmullins Pics
Rpmullins Twitter

Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.

Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.

 

Quico Censeco is running and can self fund

zbigreddogz (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 10:43AM EST (link)

Yes, he lost the primary last time, but he seems to be a hard working guy and given the year he could do it I think.

“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson

 
 

We say Rodriguez will likely lose

gemimail Wednesday, February 3rd at 2:15PM EST (link)

Chances are 55.6% that he will lose. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

 
 

Add Chet Edwards, TX-17

texasgalt (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:39PM EST (link)

Blue dog Edwards barely squeeked by last time. Republican businessman Bill Flores is building support and has own money. Edwards is a long termer sitting in the most Republican district in the country.

Flores takes on several other Rs in debate tonight, streaming live at kbtx.com
at 7 central.

http://www.billfloresforcongress.com/

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Yah, it was a shame.

zbigreddogz (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:41PM EST (link)

The only thing that saved him was the year. He ran against someone who nobody thought had a chance and outspent him badly and still only won 53-47 or so.

“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson

Edwards will go down in TX-17

cmw (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 11:37AM EST (link)

Edwards own FEC statement lists polling too, and we know hat one of the questions was, because one of our supporters got a call. His last question was specifically directed at Rob Curnock, who he clearly is afraid of in 2010, and with good reason.

Rob Curnock is the one who stood up when no one else would. Curnock came within a few points of losing when the party and big money donors (like Flores) decided to put their money elsewhere. Too bad they didn’t come on board in 2008, because it would have made a difference. None of the other 4 guys even lifted a finger to help — they didn’t donate, put up a sign, call people, anything.

Curnock’s grassroots organization might just win the primary outright on March 2 in a 5-way field. That would actually be a blessing, because then we could stop the inside baseball and infighting and get on to the business at hand, beating Chet.

http://www.WithRob.com/

http://www.colinwitt.com/

We agree

gemimail Wednesday, February 3rd at 2:16PM EST (link)

Chances are 77.8% that he will. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

 

Curnock, TX-17?

texasgalt (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 10:21AM EST (link)

OK, fine. But it will take more than the 100K he raised last time to beat the 9 term Edwards. There is a hill to climb for any candidate because Edwards often fares far better in the off year elections. This time SHOULD be different.

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Heath Shuler, We're Comin' for YOU!

snopercod Tuesday, February 2nd at 7:44PM EST (link)

Announcement: The Asheville Tea Party has taken the fight for good government to the next level by forming the Asheville Tea PAC. In the next two months, we’ll be selecting from a number of small-government, constitution-loving candidates to run against Pelosi’s big-government (‘blue’) lap dog, Heath Shuler.

The candidates debate will be held on March 5th at A-B Tech in Asheville and so far, Heath Shuler has declined to participate, just like he declined to meet with his constituents in a town hall meeting last August. He’s apparently decided to hide behind the bleachers rather than jump into the game.

We hope Shuler will man up and attend the debate along with his challengers for the NC-11 seat.

This is a tough one

gemimail Wednesday, February 3rd at 2:20PM EST (link)

Chances are only 26.8% that Republican will win. On the other hand chances that Kissell (NC-8) is toast are 58.4%. Price in NC-4 is also a long shot at 13.5% of his losing. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

Care to explain your numbers?

Neil Stevens (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 10:30AM EST (link)

You go all thre way to three sig figs with them, so you must have some seroiusly accurate data to work with, no? Share it.

RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules

Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.

“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder

Gotta love any reference to sig figs. Heh (nt)

kyoufuu (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 10:37AM EST (link)

“There are more instances of the abridgment of the freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments of those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations.” — James Madison

“I swear by my life, and my love of it, that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine.”

 
 
 
 

Add Melissa Bean, IL-8

kevhead62 Tuesday, February 2nd at 9:35PM EST (link)

She avoided meeting with anyone during the August recess since she knew the vast majority of her constitutents were against the House Obummacare bill, which she voted for. I believe there are a lot of angry voters in her district that will be sure to vote for the opposition candidate.

Interesting

proudgop (Diary) Tuesday, February 2nd at 10:18PM EST (link)

Yet, none of them released their polls like we recently saw with Republican challenging Moran in VA or Congressman Dent of PA did??

Usually if your internals are so great you like to brag

 

A Decent Chance Here

gemimail Wednesday, February 3rd at 2:23PM EST (link)

We calculate chances of Republican winning at 38.8%. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

 
 

We Have to Disagree with Charlie Cook

gemimail Wednesday, February 3rd at 3:48AM EST (link)

Candidate District Chance Going Rep
Mike Ross AR-04 50.2%
Allan Boyd FL-02 38.6%
Alan Grayson FL-08 73.5%
Suzanne Kosmas FL-24 54.2%
Sanford Bishop GA-02 None
Bill Foster IL-14 50.7%
Frank Kratovil MD-01 95.4%
Ike Skelton MO-04 None
Earl Pomeroy ND-AL 37.6%
Dina Titus NV-03 67.6%
Mike McMahon NY-13 17.1%
Michael Arcuri NY-24 74.9%
Chris Carney PA-10 60.7%
Ciro Rodriguez TX-23 55.6%

Nine of these have every reason to be very worried. But there are 51 others who should also be very worried. See http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=296&Itemid=1130 for a complete list and how worried they should be.

I agree that there are a heck of alot more then 14....

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 5:14AM EST (link)

because I have been calling it since the summer when the TEA Parties geared up and I saw the ANGER in the populace that there is going to be a 80+ seat flip. This idiot in charge will have NO CHOICE but the deal with Conservatives come January of next year….NO CHOICE!

that depends on how consolidated we are

theoneandonlyfinn (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 5:27AM EST (link)

If we follow the Brown example and what looks like a begrudging one out of Illinois-
we try to get as conservative a candidate as possible in the primary (like Rubio).
If not, we vote R, regardless.

If this is the pattern we will likely get 40-50 seats in the House. Probably more if the environment remains THIS sour for the Democrats.

The bottom line is no matter what if it has an R....

JadedByPolitics (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 5:38AM EST (link)

behind its name after a PRIMARY it gets elected! The Democrats have found that they CANNOT get done what they want because they have “different” types of D’s and WE must be just as accommodating with the R’s…..WE will have our Conservative Caucus and it will be LARGER then the RINO Caucus IMO so WE will take what WE can and leave the rest on the FLOOR!

This is a WAR for the very LIFE of our country and WE cannot sit out ANYTHING EVER again and if one does so they have NO RIGHT to complain about the socialists/communists/marxists in our midst.

Exactly right, Jaded.

realskinny (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 1:50PM EST (link)

11-2-10 is the last chance to save the Republic.

 
 
 
 
 

Let me give analysis for the Florida districts in this list

Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 9:23AM EST (link)

Kosmos – History, she lost with the release of the latest budget that cancels the Constellation program.

Grayson – Anyone calling this a toss up is insane. He is insane, and despite the fact that Fantasyland is in his district, the central Florida voters don’t like being represented by someone who is actually insane. He will lose, and lose badly.

Boyd – Allen has a chance of pulling this out, since he voted against cap & trade and healthcare. For him, it is all about how much of a wave he is swimming against. He hasn’t personally made mistakes, he is just saddled with a D next to his name. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him switch parties.

“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy

I almost hate to see Grayson go. (HUH??)

mikerazar (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 10:50AM EST (link)

Every time he opens his filthy mouth, thousands of independents join us.

On the other hand, when he loses, Rachel Maddow will burst into tears. OK….I see my error. I hope he gets CRUSHED.

We have a nation to save, people.

 

Here is the analysis:

gemimail Wednesday, February 3rd at 2:25PM EST (link)

Florida 2 Allen Boyd 38.6%
Florida 8 Alan Grayson 73.5%
Florida 22 Ron Klein 61.2%
Florida 24 Suzanne Kosmas 54.2%

See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

Well, that is their analysis...

Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Thursday, February 4th at 10:06AM EST (link)

But I didn’t find their methodology. I assume it is some combination of approval, registration advantage and the healthcare vote.

I disagree with their Kosmas number, it is too low. It isn’t factoring in the impact of the Constellation budget bomb that dropped this week. To be fair, Kosmas can pull this out if she is able to save Constellation from the axe. But that is her only chance.

Klein I’m going to wait and judge when I start tracking the Florida house races for this cycle. This is West’s second time up against Klein, and he is better funded with wind at his back this time. However, Klein had $3M in the bank at the end of the last cycle. That is a huge money advantage.

Boyd’s only problem is that he voted for Pelosi to be speaker. For him it will all come down to how much of a headwind he is up against. If the election were today, he would probably lose, but November is a long way away.

I hope Grayson is renting his house in DC.

“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy

 
 
 

Add Gary Peters (MI-09)

dadofsix Wednesday, February 3rd at 10:14AM EST (link)

The district is currently Dem +2 (Cooks ‘Likely Democrat’), but there is a lot of Tea Party action on the ground. I was at the Lapeer County (just north of MI-09) Tea Party meeting last night, and there was a lot of fired up people to work against Peters.

Hasta la vista baby…

Praise be to Jesus Christ, now and forever!

Yes and Schauer, too

gemimail Wednesday, February 3rd at 2:28PM EST (link)

Michigan 7 Mark Schauer 80.3%
Michigan 9 Gary Peters 58.1%

See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144.

 
 

Bayh is not a shoe-in

Maggie_in_Indiana (Diary) Wednesday, February 3rd at 12:19PM EST (link)

He’s actually gotten some bad press for not answering phones or emails. He joined with McCain then voted to increase the spending cap. Moron.

Maggie in Indiana

Hostettler is only three points behind Bayh

gemimail Wednesday, February 3rd at 2:31PM EST (link)

See “The Sky is Really Falling” at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/ for an analysis of the Senate races.

 
 

Notice what Reid said...

martyinaz Thursday, February 4th at 11:38AM EST (link)

about the “turmoil” over Health care? What happens when thr Republicans relent and agree to a watered down version? Voters have a short memory, forgive and forget. And you can darn well bet that the DemocRATS will take credit for ANY Health care bill that the President signs. Watch out. This could back fire and we are left with the Left In Congress. The next “big stink”, will be Cap & Trade. The Republicans had better get ready to capitalize on that one. How many Republicans think that Al Gore’s fairy tales about AGW are true? They had better get educated on it and oppose it vigorously.

Dems are not releasing any polls for themsleves

proudgop (Diary) Saturday, February 6th at 1:35AM EST (link)

Yet, our guys are

Scott Tipton challenging Salazar in CO 3 released poll

http://www.votetipton.com/_blog/In_the_News/post/Tipton_neck-and-neck_with_Salazar

Salazar 46%
Tipton 44%