Full disclosure: this is all going to be as-I-think-of-it-opinion, I have no interest in interrupting the narrative flow by looking for links, and so I freely admit that it would be fair to discount or dismiss the results accordingly.
The Democrats are in for a bad election cycle, to the point where people are actually talking about the Democrats losing the House – and starting to hint that maybe, just maybe, it’s not entirely bizarre to suggest that the Senate might be technically in a position where the Republicans could take control of it. Long since past time that this happened to this party, to be sure: but why?
I think that it’s for a pretty simple reason: the American people subscribe to a pretty simple political mathematics. They divide our political class into Those Idiots Running Things and Those Idiots Out Of Power. Then they modify it with (I Hate Those Guys). Typically speaking, election cycles depend on which party gets the modifier. For example:
- 2002 (post-9/11): Normally a time for Those Idiots Out Of Power to win seats, but being at actual war meant that (I Hate Those Guys) continued to apply to the Democrats.
- 2004: This is where (I Hate Those Guys) began to shift away from Those Idiots Out Of Power. As I recall, House gains were largely from redistricting; if Those Idiots Out Of Power had put up somebody better than Kerry, the race would have been a heck of a lot closer.
- 2006: At this point, Those Idiots Running Things had officially gotten the (I Hate Those Guys) designation. And we got shellacked in Congress.
- 2008: Interesting case, here: the holding of the Presidency by the GOP meant that we got to be still treated as Those Idiots Running Things (I Hate Those Guys), instead of Those Idiots Out Of Power (I Hate Those Guys). The more I think of it, the more I think that maybe that saved us seats.
So now it’s 2010, and the Democrats are finally being seen as both Those Idiots Running Things and getting the (I Hate Those Guys) modifier. As witness to that latter, look at the two gubernatorial elections last year and this year’s Senatorial election. But don’t look at the win, per se: look at what the Democrats tried to do to our candidates.
- In Virginia, Bob McDonnell was subjected to a full-court smear attempt over language in a twenty year old thesis – one that was enthusiastically supported by one of the top five newspapers in the country.
- In New Jersey, no Democrat ever referred to Chris Christie in a sentence without also referring to George W Bush.
- In Massachusetts, they tried… everything, really… to torpedo Scott Brown. Massive amounts of money, smear campaigns, personal appeals by the President, allegations of prejudice on Brown’s part, you name it, it was there in concentrated form.
All of these things were done because in 2006 and 2008 they worked. They worked fine, as a lot of former Congressmen and Senators could tell you. But they worked because American voters had decided that the Republicans deserved to be tagged with (I Hate Those Guys). That’s shifted… and it’ll be slow to shift back, because unless somebody waves a magic wand right now the economy and the mood of the country will still be rotten in November. And the Republicans will profit from it… for a time.
No permanent majorities, folks. Until one party learns how to stop having to take a turn at having to submit to being (I Hate Those Guys).
Moe Lane
PS: Actually, yes, it is fair. The Democrats cheerfully took advantage of this situation when it was affecting the Republicans. So… karma. It’s what’s for dinner.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Patty Murray in trouble
johnt Friday, January 29th at 2:04PM EST (link)in Washington. She better start rounding up those misplaced, warehoused votes now, and do a little canvassing in the graveyards, plus some walk-around money to the bums in ACORN.
She has always been one of the dumbest people this side of kindergarten failure, but what do you have to know to steal an election?
“a man’s admiration for absolute government is proportinate to the contempt he feels for those around him”. Tocqueville
The Secretary of State found threw out 50K
hickorystick (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 11:52PM EST (link)voters off the rolls after 2004, may they Rest in Peace. What indication do you have she is in trouble though?
The C++/ J-Script Nomenclature Makes Me Wonder
Repair_Man_Jack (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 2:09PM EST (link)If I want to delete instances of DEM, is there an App for that?
” I side impenitently with the human race against the modern reformer.” – C.S. Lewis
Deleting Instances
dwander Friday, January 29th at 2:23PM EST (link)Why can’t I just delete one instance of democrat and get rid of the whole thing?
Should be a simple process and I get my database completely cleaned up and maybe even rationalized. (Or is that normalized?)
The garbage collector will clean up after them this Nov
6eorge Jetson (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 9:18PM EST (link)nt
555
dwander Friday, January 29th at 10:23PM EST (link)I almost lost my beer on the screen! What a great use of garbage collection.
I think it's simpler than that...
D.T. Dickinson (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 2:17PM EST (link)Voters seem to vote in Dems when Dems a) largely speak about moving to center AND b) Repubs fail to do much of that for which they typically stand.
Then, the opposite happens when voters realize Dems do not actually move to center but to the left…buyer’s remorse, and usher in the Repubs again.
I think the (I Hate Those Guys) tag remains on all politicians, in general.
- D.T. Dickinson
“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victim may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.”
C.S. Lewis
Classic...
bclarkj Friday, January 29th at 2:20PM EST (link)“PS: Actually, yes, it is fair. The Democrats cheerfully took advantage of this situation when it was affecting the Republicans. So… karma. It’s what’s for dinner.”
(Karma comment) Best laugh I’ve had all day. Thanks!
Greedy Republicans or Stupid Democrats
Change Jar Conservative (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 3:03PM EST (link)One of my Democratic friends said that people got tired of Greedy Republicans and so replaced them with Stupid Democrats.
I opined as how I wished there were Republicans we could send to Washington who would not do stupid things to the budget etc ( i.e. be non-Greedy Republicans).
He said this type of Republican was as rare as an intelligent Democrat.
********
Formerly know as “Oz” in these parts
We have a rare chance to run and elect a critical mass
6eorge Jetson (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 9:21PM EST (link)of small govt-conservatives that will have a mandate to govern as small govt conservatives.
It’s time to be sure we send Rubios and not Crists to Washington.
kowalski pointed out that it will be a small m "critical mass" in Nov
6eorge Jetson (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 9:23PM EST (link)as opposed to the critical Mass of this month.
Up on my Federalist soapbox
DerKrieger (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 4:14PM EST (link)Maybe I’m wearing rose colored glasses but I honestly believe our entire system of governance would improve if we devolved power back to the states where it belongs. The federal government has become “too big to fail” and when it does fail it wreaks havoc on not just the US economy but on the world economy. If the federal government were reigned in and much of the federal government’s domestic spending returned to the 50 states, the federal government could concentrate on the few things its actually supposed to do. Politicians in both parties are loathe to admit they’re pet programs are mistakes and instead of repealing them they tinker about the edges or make the program even more statist. This hubris punishes all Americans.
Mistakes at the state level don’t necessarily have to impact the entire country and states are able to be more flexible and model themselves after states that ‘get it right’. States are even free to figure out what’s best for them. A one size fits all government clearly isn’t working. We Arkansans aren’t like our Left Coast brethren so why should we fight it out in DC when we could agree to disagree and govern locally?
The Leftists loathe federalism for one simple reason; federalism allows for escape. If a state fails under the crushing burdens placed on it by Leftists people are free to leave. When the Left’s agenda is nationalized, there is no escape. Thus under a Federalist system the Left cannot succeed. They can only fail as the producers flee and the state is left with only the moochers.
So not only musy we work hard to elect conservatives to federal office we must work as hard to elect federalist conservatives to state legislatures and governorships. The new governor of VA just happens to be a federalist.
http://www.law.virginia.edu/html/news/2007_spr/mcdonnell.htm
“In questions of power, let no more be heard of confidence in man, but bind him down from mischief by the chains of the Constitution.” – Thomas Jefferson
“I cannot undertake to lay my finger on that article of the Constitution which granted a right to Congress of expending, on objects of benevolence, the money of their constituents.” – James Madison
Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” — John Locke, 1690
5!
6eorge Jetson (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 9:24PM EST (link)That’s five factorial.
I am beyond tired of this national soap opera-nt-
hickorystick (Diary) Saturday, January 30th at 12:14AM EST (link)A SUPERNATURAL twofer
benrush (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 4:30PM EST (link)The Boston massacre.
Kennedy is expedited to his PERMANENT destination and the US is rescued from the ABYSS.
We are no longer staring down the MARXIST steamroller.
PRAISE THE LORD
Simon Templar
simontemplar Friday, January 29th at 4:43PM EST (link)Yes, you have just described the independent voter who has girated back and forth for the last 35 years bringing us everything from Carter to Reagan to the complete fake and dangerous radical we have now. Perhaps we need a true conservative who can speak like a populist and really mean what they say..in other words talk like a democrat but deliver conservative solutions to age old problems and be willing to not be bought off by any group.
No RHICONS please
noislaocommie Friday, January 29th at 4:51PM EST (link)Let’s hope that this vacuum of discontent does not bring in a large herd of Rhicons.
This article describing rhicons is a scream:
http://lamecherry.blogspot.com/2010/01/rhicon-republicans.html
Hi, noislaocommie.
Moe Lane (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 6:53PM EST (link)Don’t spambot.
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
Moe- This same link is also posted on another diary
Scope (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 7:06PM EST (link)and it’s more than a waste of time.
Rep. biggest problem is enormous fear of being called
renny (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 7:10PM EST (link)one of the -ist’s: racists, bigots, sexists, classists, and/or ageists (?),
I hope now with Obamanation having destroyed the pejorative of “racist” that Reps. can proclaim themselves fiscal conservatives and BE PROUD OF IT.
Reps. get sandbagged by the nitwit MSM constantly whining that Reps. need to be more compassionate, more bi-partisan, more caring, and more rolling over and playing dead. Dems. are NEVER bi-partisan. Daschle made a career out of declaring no matter what Bush did: “It’s dead on arrival.” How bi-partisan was that?
Maybe this time around the MSM has finally shot itself in the temple enough that it can’t play cheerleader unequivocally quite as much (new poll says no one trusts it), and Reps. can finally forget all the mud slung at them for filibustering the Civil Rights Act (the Southern Dixiecrats did that) or for laughing when women were added to it (I must say it was likely a really laughable moment) and STAND ON PRINCIPLE:
If you can’t pay for it, you can’t have it.
Great Post Moe
Whitehorse (Diary) Friday, January 29th at 11:12PM EST (link)There are no permanent majorities – it’s going to take work & by that I mean work at staying true to conservative Republican values & principles. Rove was as wrong about the permanent Republican majority as the Dems are about the permanent Dem majority.
Reminds me of the old joke
Finrod (Diary) Saturday, January 30th at 12:15AM EST (link)“Politicians are like babies’ diapers: they should be changed often, and for the same reason.”
Let’s get down to brass tacks here. How much for the ape?