Somebody call up Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook (ooh, Charlie had this one as Likely Democratic): they need to adjust their Democratic DOOMWatch lists again.
Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry to retire
Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, according to three sources briefed on the decision.
Berry will become the sixth Democrat in a competitive seat to leave in the last two months but the first to announce his retirement since the party’s special election loss in Massachusetts last Tuesday.
Speculation was rampant after his comments a couple of days ago; note that politicians routinely deny that they’re going to retire until they actually do. Presumably, there’s always the hope of a convenient asteroid strike or something as a game-changer. It’s a shame, in its way: we were all going to really enjoy watching Berry lose that race. As the video at the link shows, the man was seriously off of his game. When you can’t even remember your own farm subsidy shenanigans…
Moe Lane
PS: It looks more or less like Rick Crawford for AR-01, on the GOP side. Check him out.
Crossposted to Moe Lane.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Should we expect to see more of this? nt
Steph C (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 7:33PM EST (link)“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics
Here is hoping
proudgop (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 7:40PM EST (link)Other names are being floated on GOP side
State Sen. Johnny Key (R), state Rep. Davy Carter (R), businessman/’84 GOV nominee Woody Freeman (R) and businessman Chris Fowler (R) as possible candidates
Finally, Arkanasas may have a Republican delegation in DC
Here is hoping to a lot more retirements: Spratt SC, Skeleton MO, Peterson MN, Boswell IA to name few
We Also Need Both D's in WV To Retire, and Boucher of VA-09
IJB Sunday, January 24th at 9:05PM EST (link)All of those are rumored as possible retirees.
If all three retire – we’ll be cooking with gas!!
Good luck with that.
Steph C (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 9:09PM EST (link)Byrd ain’t going anywhere and Rockefeller will die there as well.
“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics
I Meant The Two House Members in WV
IJB Sunday, January 24th at 9:12PM EST (link)As for Byrd… well to be blunt about it – he won’t be with us much longer.
No, but they'll embalm him
Steph C (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 9:49PM EST (link)and prop him up in a corner somewhere because he’s such a reliable vote.
j/k
Seriously, if it’s going to happen this is the time for it to happen. Maybe Byrd will be content to die at home where so much is named after him, surrounded by all he loves (memorials to himself)>
“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics
I think he was referring to Rahall and Mollahan in WV.
hones Sunday, January 24th at 9:21PM EST (link)If Boucher throws in the towel, it’ll be an absolute slaughter in Virginia.
WV's Delegation
Jim Mullins (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 9:40PM EST (link)Alan Mollohan (D, WV-1) has filed to run for releection, as will Nick Rahall (D, WV-3). Our filing period ends at midnight, Saturday, January 30.
Due to his ongoing scandals, Alan Mollohan has lost his fundraising capacity and is also nearly broke personally, having spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on legal fees. There is a crowded Republican primary in the 1st District. Former Delegate David McKinley, a Wheeling architect, businessman, former House of Delegates minority leader, and former state party chairman, is our strongest candidate against Mollohan. Here is an article about his candidacy.
In my district, Nick Rahall is in far better shape, with no current scandals and about $1.4 million cash on hand (not to mention a large, inherited fortune). I am supporting Conrad Lucas for this seat. Rahall is vulnerable due to Obama’s War on Coal and the increasing Republican leanings of southern West Virginia. The 3rd Congressional District of West Virginia produces more coal than any other congressional district in the United States. Although Rahall voted against cap & trade, he did so only after sitting at the bargaining table with Nancy Pelosi, Ed Markey, Henry Waxman, and the other bicoastal tree huggers, rather than leading the opposition to the bill. His NO vote (and Mollohan’s) came only after Nancy Pelosi secured the votes she needed to pass the bill. On health care, Rahall has often and publicly stated that he would like to have a Canadian-style single-payer health care system–but is a formidable debater. I’ve met all 3 announced Republican candidates, but Conrad Lucas is the only one who can stand toe to toe with Nicky Joe. For those who would say Conrad Lucas is too young to run for Congress, he is a year older than Nick Rahall was when he was first elected to Congress in 1976. This is one of those races where a longtime incumbent without any current major scandals will be sewpt out by the coming political tsunami.
–James M. “Jim” Mullins, Jr., Esq.
The Law Offices of James M. Mullins, Jr., PLLC
West Virginia Citizens Defense League
Mollohan Fundraising Article
Jim Mullins (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 9:43PM EST (link)Link.
–James M. “Jim” Mullins, Jr., Esq.
The Law Offices of James M. Mullins, Jr., PLLC
West Virginia Citizens Defense League
Rahall would make you Logan County? nt
Steph C (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 9:44PM EST (link)“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics
West Virginia ratings
gemimail Monday, January 25th at 12:08PM EST (link)We have Mollohan listed at an 11.2% chance of losing to a Republican, but all politics is local so a scandal makes a big difference which mathematical models cannot handle. We have Rahall at -7.3% so he is not in our table of districts in play at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=296&Itemid=1130. Again local conditions could quickly change that.
Connolly is a better bet than Boucher
gemimail Monday, January 25th at 12:18PM EST (link)We have Connolly (VA-11) at a 52.5% chance of going Republican while Boucher (VA-9) is at 37.9%. We are being conservative because the Republican candidate for governor got 66% of the vote in this district last November. Our reason for caution is the Boucher had no opposition in 2008 and won with a 35.6% margin in 2006. See http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144 for a by state list of vulnerable Democrats.
I will say this...
Jonah Shumate (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 9:07PM EST (link)Woody Freeman is actually working on Rick’s campaign.
The rest will fall in to place.
A lot more Republicans will file now
gemimail Monday, January 25th at 11:54AM EST (link)We had Berry listed as impossible at -16.2% chance (not possible) of going Republican and now have it at 74.1%. Likewise we had Vic Snyder at 32.7% and now have it at 81.9%. Both of these guys had no Republican opposition in 2008. But then they both voted for Pelosi care and committed political suicide. Losing a long term Democrat incumbent is a huge game changer. See “Dynamics of Open Seats” at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=367&Itemid=1205 for an analysis. We have Mike Ross (AR-4) listed at 35.6% but he had the good sense to vote no on Pelosi care.
Why...
nvrepub (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 7:38PM EST (link)don’t these “Blue Dog” Dems vote like Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS)??? If they’d essentially vote like Republicans, in red districts, they’d probably last. What is wrong with them – seriously?
Berry voted
proudgop (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 7:41PM EST (link)I believe Berry voted for stimulus, Obamacare, and cap and trade if I am not mistaken
Correct.
zbigreddogz (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 8:54PM EST (link)In fairness to Berry, especially seeming as how we won’t have him to kick around anymore, his district WAS very D leaning up until recently. Bush barely lost it in ’00 and barely won it in ’04. McCain won it overwhelmingly in ’08. This is unlike Taylor, who’s district has always been very R at a Presidential level.
“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson
Yes, Moe, that's the only downside to all these retirements.
janis (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 7:42PM EST (link)Watching them lose on election night was something I was really looking forward to! But I’ll take every retirement among them as the same thing and enjoy it accordingly.
It's more fun, but less effective.
zbigreddogz (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 8:51PM EST (link)The D’s will now have to pour lots more money into trying to keep the district…and likely still lose. So it’s a double wammy, it’s a domino effect. Puts more races into play.
“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson
we're just getting to enjoy it now over 10 months instead
thurman Monday, January 25th at 12:03AM EST (link)That’s how I like to think of all these retirements
Plus, even a Blue Puppy incumbent has some name recognition– far easier to let them retire and scramble to field someone new instead
He Joins Snyder; Has Ross Made It a Clean Sweep nt
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 8:22PM EST (link)nt
Rick Crawford
Brian_Roastbeef (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 8:22PM EST (link)I have to say, seeing that its a race in the south, I was kind of hoping it was the Nascar Truck Series driver.
After looking at his site for a while though, I can’t say that I’m disappointed. Looks like he’ll be a strong candidate for us.
Either he starts raising money or
jfindl2 (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 8:27PM EST (link)we find somebody else. Last FEC report had him with 38k in the bank in an uncontested Republican field, I’m willing to give him time to get more money now that he isn’t facing a, relatively, popular incumbent with over 500k in the bank. He looks like a solid conservative but there should be lots of solid conservatives in a district McCain won with 59% of the vote.
I’m a little retread, short and stout. I have no life, I reregister and pout.
Exactly.
zbigreddogz (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 10:52PM EST (link)I’m 100% sure we can get someone who will do a better job, someone with more connections and better fund raising skills.
“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson
He'll probably run for mayor of DC again
WarEagle01 (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 8:31PM EST (link)nt
“A wise, doughy leg with rich tingly experiences will always reach better conclusions than will a more tanned, muscular leg that hasn’t felt those thrills.” –Chris Matthews’ Leg
“The alternative to the awful extremity of abortion is the indispensable joy of introducing this flawed world to someone who might make it better.”–John Hayward (AKA Dr. Zero)
You're kidding, right? -NT-
discerningconservative (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 8:33PM EST (link)Don't sweat it: it's apparently an Internet tradition...
Moe Lane (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 8:43PM EST (link)…to confuse the two every time there’s a post on Berry.
Alas, the tradition dies in November.
The Kim Kardashian of blogging.
Check out my blog at http://moelane.com/.
http://moelane.com/filthy-lucre-filthy-lucre/
http://twitter.com/moelane
My (combined) wish list.
Are we sure about that? Have they both ever been
The_Gadfly (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 1:50PM EST (link)in the same news photograph at the same time?
He/they both strike me as the double dipper sort so I’m not putting anything past them/him.
I mean, if it is an internet tradition we should get some mileage from this shouldn’t we?
This is a triple wammy, actually.
zbigreddogz (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 8:56PM EST (link)1. They’ll have to try to defend the seat and pour lots of money into it.
2. It’ll certainly thin out the Senate primary, some of the Senate candidates will probably run for Congress instead now, which makes it a lot easier for…
3. John Boozman to get into the Senate race, which basically puts the nails in Lincoln’s coffin.
That’s gotta hurt.
“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson
Nice analysis
jfindl2 (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 9:00PM EST (link)Only question is if any of the candidates in the race have homes in the 1st district?
I’m a little retread, short and stout. I have no life, I reregister and pout.
Donno for sure, but they can move
zbigreddogz (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 10:49PM EST (link)And even if that’s not the case, if Boozman gets in, that opens up his district as well. At least SOME of the 9 (!!!) candidates for Senate have got to live in one of the THREE open districts.
Of course, I think Tim Griffin deserves the nomination in Snyder’s seat. He’s the one who was gutsy enough to get in when everybody was saying Snyder was unbeatable, and he was the one who raised a bunch of money, scaring Snyder out of the race.
“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson
Tim
davidmeeks (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 6:39PM EST (link)zbigreddogz,
For full disclosure I am running against Tim in the 2nd CD.
I jumped in July when everyone thought Snyder was unbeatable. Tim was recruited by the NRCC and jumped in about the time a private poll showed a “Strong” Republican challenger could beat Snyder. The NRCC has backed Tim from the very start and is hosting fundraisers in DC for him even though it was understood that the Party doesn’t get involved in primaries.
(Yes, I did contact the NRCC and tell them I was running and had several conversations with them.)
No doubt he did scare Snyder out of the race, and he has raised alot of money.
However in the last poll that was taken that had Tim and I in the race Tim was down to Snyder by 1 and I was down by 3. I had less name recognition then Tim did.
So the people of the 2nd District have a choice. Someone like me was a Washington Outsider. A common man who is a conservative or someone like Tim who is backed by the establishment and has all the political connections.
I am not saying that being part of the establishment automatically makes you a bad person. However at this time can we take a chance on an establishment person when the establishment (from both parties) is largely responsible for the mess we are in now.
Until then people need to realize there are other good conservatives in this primary. They also need to realize the NRCC is sticking their nose in trying to influence the outcome.
David Meeks
http://whoisdavidmeeks.com
Here to Serve,
David
If Boozman gets in
proudgop (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 9:18PM EST (link)we will probably see a lot movement of people dropping out
I mean would Baker get into open Synder race?
I hope not
zbigreddogz (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 10:50PM EST (link)I think Griffin deserves it, as I state above.
But he could run for Lt. Governor if Halter runs for House or for Senate. He could also move to one of the other two districts that’ll be open in that scenario.
“At the top there are no easy choices. All are between evils, the consequences of which are hard to judge.” – Dean Acheson
I like Griffin too
proudgop (Diary) Sunday, January 24th at 11:22PM EST (link)plus, he has shown great fundraising
Its shame all these people are running in this Senate Race though; I believe Arkansas has a lot state wide office races this year too and perhaps Republicans can get some and rebuild party
Boozman is sounding like he wants in
jfindl2 (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 1:04AM EST (link)http://www.cleveland.com/world/index.ssf/2010/01/since_win_in_massachusetts_gop.html
and
http://tolbertreport.com/2010/01/21/rep-boozman-considers-senate-race/
I bet he will announce he will announce in a couple of days.
I’m a little retread, short and stout. I have no life, I reregister and pout.
some get it and some do not
wbb1950 Sunday, January 24th at 11:32PM EST (link)Massachusetts is only the beginning:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=662R2awSwPQ
It's about time AR really went red
mbauer (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 12:25AM EST (link)Our federal legislative seats have been some of the most consistently Democratic seats in the country. When the South started voting in Republicans, Arkansas just never followed. Republicans haven’t been the majority House delegation from Arkansas since… probably post civil war reconciliation. In that same time span, I think we’ve had exactly 1 Republican Senator for one term.
I’d almost bet even money right now that all 4 AR house seats are Red in 2011 (implying 3 of them flipping) and we take Lincoln’s Senate seat on top of it. I sure would like to slap that “regional party” crap back in the liberal’s face when they are only represented in the NE and within 50 miles of the pacific ocean.
Cook was full of crap on this rating even before Berry dropped out
Third Street (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 3:12AM EST (link)as he is on so many others. Never use a single, aberrant electoral cycle like ’08 as a baseline for future results, Charlie.
Hard to believe that only one cycle ago Ark.’s entire delegation ran unopposed.
“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” –Wilkins Micawber, “David Copperfield”
Another potential GOP contender for AR-01
teamronmiller Monday, January 25th at 8:30AM EST (link)Princella Smith, currently a communications director for GOP congressman Joseph Cao (R-LA), has had designs on this seat in the past and with this news is seriously considering a run. There are two Facebook sites encouraging her to run. More on Princella here:
http://www.politico.com/click/stories/0909/a_rising_gop_pr_star.html
Ron
================
Ron Miller
GOP Candidate for Maryland Senate, District 27
Sign up for Team Ron Miller email updates – http://www.teamronmiller.com/
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So, is this a tacit admission by the Dems
The_Gadfly (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 1:41PM EST (link)that they KNOW all the Lame Stream Media polls are slanted in their direction?
This is an all time great quote from The One to Marion Berry
Jack_Savage (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 3:02PM EST (link)Writes ADG reporter Jane Fullerton:
Berry recounted meetings with White House officials, reminiscent of some during the Clinton days, where he and others urged them not to force Blue Dogs “off into that swamp” of supporting bills that would be unpopular with voters back home.
“I’ve been doing that with this White House, and they just don’t seem to give it any credibility at all,” Berry said. “They just kept telling us how good it was going to be. The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, ‘Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.’
We’re going to see how much difference that makes now.”