…Dorgan.
If Hoeven gets in, Dorgan’s toast.

I am more optimistic

I think we are winning North Dakota and Illinois too and I have hopes for NY ( Gillibrand) CA, WI, and even IN

See http://www.redstate.com/paint_it_red/2009/12/21/a-look-at-20-senate-seats-2010/ for details. Is WA your mystery long shot?

Please say it’s Patty Murray. I will love you forever.

The d’s don’t seem to have anybody high profile in the race for Obama’s old seat.

How about him?

Ben Nelson is not up until 2012.

Yeah, no way… We don’t even have anybody to run against him. But I can dream… Poor New York.

the thing that sickens me the most is Republican politicians who come up with some excuse NOT to run when their country needs them.

any GOP politician who passes on running for office when they are either even or favored should be derided and despised as a traitor to the cause of liberty.

I don’t care what their excuse is, our country is on a critical course and every patriot MUST step into the breach!

Any number of Cook’s “safe” Dem seats could be competitive if the right candidate gets in, and Dorgan’s an obvious enough choice that it wouldn’t merit a laugh, so I’ll guess Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, with the entry of Tommy Thompson.

If Cook is guessing up to R+6 then you can count on a six-seat pickup as an absolute minimum. I’ll bet we get eight.

I am tired of winning by default. Each side misrepresenting Americans and doing damage and the other side wins by default.

I want REPS to give us something to vote FOR, not to just vote against the unprecedented damage DEMS are inflicting on America.

If we become complacent the “elected elites” in DC will keep playing political games and attending cocktail parties while America suffers.

R+3?!
Pul-lease.

I’ll go on record now – after the 2010 elections, the Republicans will have a comfortable majority (i.e. more than 25 out 50) of Governorships, just like they did after 1994.

The difference is – this time, having that many R Governorships, will *kill* the Dems in the coming redistricting.
Pity that. Not! (Heh…)

I usually a pessimist, but I think Republicans will pickup closer to 40 seats in the House, and probably a minimum of 6 in the Senate (depending on recruiting). If Republicans did a stellar job of recruiting, we could probably pick up 8-10 in the Senate.

My only “worry” is what Erick was talking about where Obama might regain his popularity (like Clinton after the ’94 elections) as a check against the Republican Congress if 2010 is a blowout. I’m guessing much of Clinton’s comeback though was due to the roaring economy, something I just don’t see in the years ahead.

I would like to see RedState use it’s grassroots muscle to try and recruit/draft electable Republicans in these Senate races.

You got my hopes up with all the predictions of beating back the Obamacare bill, when I should have just stuck wtih the math. 60 seats is 60 seats.

Don’t forget that Republican canddidates will not only be running against the Democratic candidates, but against the media as well. And, against a federal government that can and will hand out the goodies to cultivate votes for Democratic incumbents.

is it Massachusetts?

A lot is going to happen in a year, and the polls will likely fluctuate.

I will go on record predicting a net gain of 1 Senate seat and 12 House seats for Republicans.

for predictions! They’re always fun . I agree with the earlier comment, the thing we have to worry about most is taking total control of Congress with super-narrow majorities that arent capable of actually getting things done, but ARE capable of being a great big target for Obama to use in his re-election campaign, just like Clinton did in 1995-96. As a practical matter it would be much better for us if we held the other side to bare minimum majorities so they couldnt get anything done, but as the majority party they would still be the ones getting all the blame for everything, and then we score a huge landslide win in 2012 and recapture everything at once with the kind of huge majorities that the Dems have now.

Of course thats the practical way of thinking, but as a fan of winning I want us to just win in a BIGTIME landslide, and take everything . Quite frankly, I think its highly likely at this point that we will take the House, and as for the Senate its flip a coin time, my best guess is we get maybe 8 or 9 seats but come up a little bit short of a majority, but certainly winning it all is a possibility. If Congress is under split control, which is I think the most likely scenario right now, that would still mean the Dems have majority control of Washington and we should still be able to set most of the blame on them, if we have effective leadership (which sadly we dont have right now, gonna need to get some by next year). So if I had to pick hard numbers right now (without actual races in front of me to go point by point on, just going big picture here) I’d say GOP +48 in the House, and +9 in the Senate.

The “throw them all out”, ” no difference in any of them” mindless stuff that Glen Beck, in his attempt to protect himself and look non-partisan, has helped to propagate.
It plays to the very brain dead emotionalism that has gotten us into this mess. The Repubs truly leave much to be desired, and Get Along Bush was no Calvin Coolidge, but we could wind up with next to nothing in ’10.
There are differences worth voting on, to oppose only because someone is an incumbent is an indication of a lobotomy gone bad.

Does Brown have *any* chance of winning this? If so, let’s get after it as that would throw a huge monkey wrench into all the Dem plans on HCR or anything else.

I’m OK w/supporting a longshot ’cause ya never know who’s going to come out and actually vote in the middle of January in MA but it’s at least gotta be that and not totally hopeless.

Anyone from MA that can give us some rationale, grounded-in-reality assessments of what’s going on in that race?

Praise the lord and pass the ammunition.
All of us RS people have to dig in and do everything possible to convert the elections of 2010 into a TEA PARTY TSUNAMI.
We need 40 in the house which is doable. I think we may get a few more than that. The senate is a lot harder. We need 11 to negate Biden´s vote.
That means good candidates have to be recluted in IN and WI to have a chance.

I am concerned the right will get all giddy with various polls and speculating on how many seats gained while MISSING THE WHOLE LESSON once again. We need to focus on getting real conservatives elected, not just gaining seats. Just gaining seats will kick the can down the road yet again while America gets sold out by both parties. I could see a few, or even more than a few current Republicans privately hoping that health care passes for their own career boost. A net less for America.

The GOP should have a group called CONSERVATIVE Republicans based on their voting record. Something like a bluedog designation. A special designation within the Rep party.

1. That will show there is a difference within Rep party
2. Will incentivize more conservative voting
3. Will help to put pressure on RINOs to get with the program
4. Won’t give RINOs cover.

Unless the 2010 elections result in a watershed moment like 1994 where Republicans take over at least the House, we are likely finished as a country. Even if we took the House, Republicans are too meek to make a difference. They just will not play hardball like the liberals. And when you look at the leadership in the Senate it really is a lost cause. Something has to happen to at least change the leadership in both bodies if we are to have any chance of changing things at all.

Republicans will be able to block a few more procedures if they make gains but do not get the majority but the inertia will still move left. And two more years of this will result in the destruction of the country we know.

We need to face facts. We now have a congress and senate and executive branch that will ignore the very oath they all take to protect and preserve the Constitution. They all know it is just mouthing words and they have no desire to take the oath seriously.

Think about it…….every representative and senator comes into office with an agenda to spend money. No longer is lower taxes and government leaving us alone a winning strategy to get elected.

We have met the enemy…..and it is US!