Comments on: CA-10 Open Thread.

By: californiasam

californiasam — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:17:37 +0000

This year: Garamendi – 53, Harmer – 43.
In a district that is so gerrymandered and so heavily democratic – this is fantastic.

By: IJB

IJB — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:07:50 +0000

Not a Earth-shattering as some of us hoped. Still, not bad.

But, by my back of the envelop calc, a “generic” Congressional vote in this D+11 district in 2008 would have been something like 64-33. (The national percentage House vote in 2008 was 53-44, so D+11 gets you 64-33.)

So that means the pro-GOP swing here in 2009 was 11 *back* (i.e. away from the Dems!).

So, if someone wants to have some fun, they should figure out what the House numbers would look like if the GOP did 11% better than their 2008 totals in every House district in the country – I imagine that would swing at least 50 House seats to the GOP!

By: Mayhem

Mayhem — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:52:53 +0000

It was a 10 point race after all. 53-43. I’d say that is an excellent finish.

By: Leopard1996

Leopard1996 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:42:10 +0000

When it was Arnold, who was playing governor with an effing R after his name.

Moderation and “bi-partisanship” has served us so well.

By: JLenardDetroit

JLenardDetroit — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 08:34:29 +0000

Congressional District 10

100.00% (264 of 264) precincts partially or fully reporting as of Nov 4, 2009, 12:13 a.m.

Candidate Votes Percent
John Garamendi (Dem) 66,311 52.98%
David Harmer (Rep) 53,441 42.69%
Jeremy Cloward (Grn) 2,314 1.85%
Jerome “Jerry” Denham (AI) 1,435 1.15%
Mary C. McIlroy (P&F) 1,672 1.34%

By: JLenardDetroit

JLenardDetroit — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:08:21 +0000

more long drawn out wrestling than any real knock-out.... (hope the right code came over from HockeyFights.com - figured NJ was right)

By: DONTTREADONME

DONTTREADONME — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:48:30 +0000

but by only 200 votes, I wonder how hotly contested this will be in the courts and I wonder about those mysterious ballots that will show up tomorrow.

By: SteveLA

SteveLA — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:33:41 +0000

california_red

Like your analysis, sounds about right for the mood of the electorate out in CA and I tend to think you’re calling it pretty well.

I’m still wondering what will happen with the Governors race with Moonbeam vers who knows. If the economy stays in the tank will the Republican use that fact as a club over the head of the Donks, it’s anyone’s guess.

By: Third Street

Third Street — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:27:36 +0000

We can win this thing.

Yes we can.

By: JLenardDetroit

JLenardDetroit — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:26:02 +0000

in the morning… it will be light out … Mr. Smarty-pants lol

By: california_red

california_red — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:25:19 +0000

When examining the CA-10 results keep in mind that this is a district that went for Obama 34+ in 2008. The registration is +18D. The district has been D since 1994. And the D candidate is the Lt. Governor of the freaking state, in statewide office or in the Federal government for over 20 years. The Democrats had to put a prize fighter up to take on a relative unknown. I think the D’s will carry it narrowly, but if you look closely you will see great weakness in the Democratic ability to hold thier seats. There is no way the seat should even be competitive, except that the Democrats have been acting like crackheads since last November.

By: snowshooze

snowshooze — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:24:29 +0000

Dirtbag!
You old guys all go to bed at 8…
lol!
Mark

By: DONTTREADONME

DONTTREADONME — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:17:31 +0000

smile you clicked on the link now keep on watching it and let me know in the morning.