ID-01: Cook has it as R+18; its current incumbent Walter Minnick won in a squeaker in 2008 thanks to a combination of Democratic headwinds and a poor candidate, and as neither condition is going to be replicated in 2010, he’s currently tacking hard to the center.  Minnick has thus already voted against the ‘stimulus’ and cap-and-trade, and he might even vote against health care rationing; impossible to guarantee, of course, given that he’s a Blue Dog and thus inherently untrustworthy to anybody.  The DCCC will still support him, also of course; taking money from progressives and giving it to equivocators is what they’re there for.

Against him is Vaughn Ward.  Iraq veteran, strong on fiscal conservatism, had a good second quarter – this was a pretty good pick/matchup by the NRCC, in my admittedly biased and amateur opinion.  He’s also something very interesting: a former McCain campaign staffer whom, as Soren Dayton notes here, has received campaign contributions from Todd Palin’s parents.  Somewhat suggestive, at the very least; and if Sarah Palin goes on the stump for candidates anywhere in 2010 it’ll be in places like ID-01.  So keep an eye out on this one.

And contribute too, of course.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.