Neil

I’ve been in the technology segment of the CA economy for over 30 years and would also point out that the technology types are not going to be big fans of Fiorina ether. She did not exactly do a great job with running HP or integrating Compaq/DEC into HP.

If anything, people working in technology fields are not all that dogmatic on issues like abortion, more leaning to libertarian point of view. I don’t see her doing well with my demographic ether way, no matter how she comes out on abortion.

The winning issues for the next few election cycles in CA for Republicans in my view are not social ones anyway, it’s fiscal restraint, dealing with the state’s illegal aliens in an intelligent manner and issues that effect the pocket book.

If there is a “wedge” issue brewing, it’s the initiative to define citizenship as meaning being born to legal residents of the state, which I support for no other reason than to force the issue into the courts to get resolution of the question. How or if R’s back that the initiative will be a major breaking point and point of contention that Donks will try to exploit.

What do we know about her on the issues at all?

Money isn’t entirely fungible. Nor is effort.

The best way to maximize what we’ve got, and to maximize our chances of winning, is to contend in every race, every time.

It doesn’t mean the RNC or other organizations should pour money into every race equally, but you don’t pre-emptively surrender.

That mentality is exactly why we’re stuck with Boxer in the first place. Part of why CA is solid Democrat is that Republicans haven’t put any resources into the state for the past 20 years. We can’t expect CA’s votes when we dismiss them as sour grapes. That’s shrinking the electoral map. It’s not working.

CA has no entrenched political culture. Only nitwit transplants think of it as some hippy paradise. That myth explodes once you start looking for affordable living space. And it has a consistently low voter turnout. CA offers room for progress.

10 years ago a Democrat President winning with North Carolina or Indiana was unimaginable. Democrats competed anyway, organizing rallying points for the small pockets of liberalism in NC & IN. There’s no guarantee that CA will likewise flip. But we need a sustainable political movement in our largest state.

While it would be a large investment to wage a campaign in California to take Boxer down, it would also be a large sink for the Democrats if they have to spend time and resources to defend the seat. Your point about getting more bang for our buck in CT, DE, NV, etc is well made and I’m in total agreement with you but I don’t think we should totally write off California if it looks like Fiorina’s competitive.

I don’t know; maybe my judgment’s just clouded by the gleeful vision of me doing a happy dance around my living room while Fox covers Boxer’s concession speech on election night next year.

First, Boxer is far more vulnerable than Feinstein, who overall has a reputation for being a “moderate” Democrat and tends to have broader support. Boxer is viewed as far more liberal and her political base is more narrowly centerd in the Bay Area.

That said, while the Presidential trends have gone strongly Democratic, 2010 will represent more of a general referendum on Democratic-dominated governance and will be a let-down from the excitement of 2008.

In particular, what remains unknown is how strong of an anti-incumbent feeling there will be.

We also see with the special election on the initiatives that the voters did not want to go along with business as usual. Depending on the performance of the economy and peoples perception of federal and state governance, and especially what Boxer becomes associated with in the voters minds, it is within the realm of possibility that enough voters may decide they’re willing to try something different that they will at least giver the Republican challenger a hearing.

At that point, the candidate has to make the best of his opportunities.

Certainly it’s uphill, but if Boxer continues to come up with precious video moments, a suitable Republican could have some strong openings.

I’m not advising a massive party infusion at this time, unless the numbers start to look favorable, but I certainly would not want the party to stand in the way of donors investing in this race.

In other words, a lot could happen between now and Nov 2010 – either favorable or unfavorable.