White House predicts 3.5% growth by year’s end.


I am sure that they *mean* well.

The White House is promising solid economic growth by the end of this year:

White House Sees 3.5% Growth by Year-End, Exceeding Forecasts

May 11 (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration projected that the U.S. economy will expand at a 3.5 percent annual rate by year-end, a rebound that would be almost twice as strong as private forecasters expect.

[snip]

As early as the end of this year, GDP may rise at a 3.5 percent annual rate, the same pace projected for all of next year, helped by a $787 billion stimulus package, the administration said in the report today. That’s more optimistic than the 1.8 percent fourth-quarter growth estimate in the monthly Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey released May 10.

Of course, this White House promised ‘only’ a $1.2 trillion dollar deficit this year; it’s now going to be $1.8 trillion, and probably rising. And it calculated an 8.1% unemployment rate for 2009 (last month’s was 8.9%, thanks largely to government seasonal work*). And then there’s this (via here):

stimulus-vs-unemployment-april

Let me explain really quickly what that graph means. The solid blue line represents what the incoming Obama economic team calculated would be the unemployment rate if the ‘stimulus’ was passed; the light blue line represents the unemployment rate if the ‘stimulus’ was not passed. We passed the ‘stimulus’. The red triangles represent the actual unemployment rates for March and April.  As you can see, passing the stimulus has so far had no effect on the unemployment rate.  So you can believe the administration’s current predictions of economic growth by year-end all you like. Or you could start assessing your options.

Hey, take your time.

Moe Lane

*Census.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.


Category: , , ,

RSS feed

13 Comments Leave a comment

This begins to prove the point

Jack_Savage (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 2:39PM EST (link)

The stimulus package never was anything more than political payoff, bailing out states and organizations that had no ability or intention to make the difficult choices needed to stay solvent. One wonders why the Obama administration is doing this – maybe to reduce the deficit on paper, or try to cheerlead the economy the way they savaged it for so long. Who knows.

 

And the Reason is?

jimmuy8 (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 3:04PM EST (link)

Pixie dust and Unicorn farts–that’s what’s gonna drive this train.

“if the financial system begins to function more normally”

Yes, yes. That’s what’s dragging the economy down. You’ve been telling us that since September. You know: Several TRILLION dollars ago! (Which you said would have solved this a long time ago.)

So, basically it’s: “If everything goes back to the way it was, we’ll have the growth we used to have.” Dang that’s smart! Holy crap, how many Ivy League diploma’s does one need to say such super genius stuff?

“The administration expects “housing starts to reach bottom this year and to begin a robust recovery as relative housing prices stabilize,” today’s report said.”

Yes, because 1/3 of all mortgages being upside down; record bankruptcies, record credit card defaults will all go away once “relative housing prices stabilize.” What you’re saying is: “So what if you owe $50,000 more than your house is worth–once it stops losing value, say when you owe $70k more, you’re gonna be rich man, RICH! And then you’re going to go out and buy 2 or 3 more houses. It’s science, look it up.”

“The Federal Reserve’s “novel” policies of extending funds to banks to boost liquidity and purchasing short- and long-term Treasuries also will help underpin the recovery, the White House said.”

Yup, “novel” is the word. Others might say stuff like: Melting down the printing presses printing so much money, so fast. Still other might say: I’ve seen this scheme before except we called it “check kiting” and it was a crime. Another term might be “robbing Peter to pay Paul.”

When I was younger, doing a bit of mechanic work, you could get an engine to fire and run for a bit spraying ether or dumping a bit of gas in the carburetor–dangerous as hell. But, the engine would fire and run for a bit. With no gas in the tank or getting to the carburetor, it’d soon die. And often, it’d backfire and shoot flames from the carburetor. Not a good spot to be if you’re the one “priming the pump.”

That’s where we’re at now: 0bama’s telling us if we’d just dump a bit more gas in the carburetor this ol’ engine is gonna fire up and run like a champ. He’s behind the wheel cranking the starter and telling us to climb on up there and dump another cup of gas in the intake.

 

I think the decimal was in the wrong place

JLenardDetroit (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 3:28PM EST (link)

I think they meant 0.35%…..

or maybe they meant 35% growth in Government under Obama over the next 2 years.

Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”


(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)

 

Here's a photo from the press conference

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 3:36PM EST (link)

By year-end, the US economy will economy will expand at a rate of…

Three Point Five Percent!!!

 

Hope and pocket change. nt

Common_Cents (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 5:10PM EST (link)

Obama=Golfer in Chief, Leading from, behind, the Back Nine.
Leaders don’t create movements. Movements create leaders. Get involved. Your future depends on it.
Govt “invests” YOUR tax money for POLITICAL return rather than economic return.

 

We may have a period of growth that is 3% plus, but that's off of a shrunken economic base

red_oakster (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 5:19PM EST (link)

We’ve had a severe recession accompanied by a huge declines in economic activity. There is likely to be a pretty significant growth rate in just recovering from the downturn. A proverbial dead cat bounce.

The real issue is not whether the economy expands at a 3.5% rate, but how durable that 3.5% is. And this is where Obama’s trouble lies. First, without strong incentives for economic growth, 3.5% expansions don’t last long. And Obama’s huge tax increases after 2010 will kill the incentives necessary for investing and entrepreneurship.

And without smart incentives and robust economic growth, 10% unemployment rates don’t melt away. 10% or even 7% unemployment rates are a huge drag on consumer spending and on the economy. And if, after that dead cat bounce, economic growth settles in at a fragile 1 or 2 per cent, jobless rates will remain high and painful.

The better argument for conservatives is about the lack of incentives and the “employment recession” that Obama’s policies will cause, not whether the economy grows at fast pace for awhile.

Melting a recession

Spiral (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 5:47PM EST (link)

And without smart incentives and robust economic growth, 10% unemployment rates don’t melt away. 10% or even 7% unemployment rates are a huge drag on consumer spending and on the economy.

You make a great point. Many people believe (or used to believe) that Obama and the Democrats will be bailed out by “the business cycle.”

But this assumes that reasonably rapid economic growth is normal, that once excess housing stock and worthless mortgage backed securities are digested, jobs and growth will return.

The problem, as I see it, is that Obama and the Democrats are not through kicking the economy when it’s down. They are gearing up for a right hook to jaw with their health care plan, a left jab with cap and trade, and punch to the gut with higher taxes on corporations.

The economy won’t stay in recovery for long if they get their way.

Yup

red_oakster (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 6:02PM EST (link)

And even if Obama fails to get those increases passed by Congress, he’ll raise cap gains and income taxes by letting the Bush tax cuts expire.

 
 
 

Obama's spending is a sedative, not a stimulus

Spiral (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 5:35PM EST (link)

Massive government spending does not stimulate the economy. On the contrary, it is a sedative to the economy. If the economy were left unmolested for a year, it would recover and bring prosperity. Instead, Obama and the Democrats have decided to intervene in a very negative way.

It’s a mistake to call the economy we are experiencing a depression or a recession. This is an Opression.

 

He can dream of a 3.5% rate

itrytobenice (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 7:11PM EST (link)

But it’s a lot more likely to come in at -3.5%.

Of course, that will be all George Bush’s fault.

Proper grammar saves lives.

Let’s eat Grandma.
Let’s eat, Grandma.


Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots

 

by year end

10ksnooker (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 7:29PM EST (link)

Which year?

 

more like 0.35%

char (Diary) Monday, May 11th at 8:11PM EST (link)

and that if we are lucky. Thank goodness for the stimulus, if we hadn’t passed 785 billion in spending then we would have had something like 0.1% growth.

 

The economic forecasts

Adjoran (Diary) Tuesday, May 12th at 3:47AM EST (link)

which predict half the growth Obama foresees are using some optimistic assumptions.

At the rate Obama is destroying capital formation, we could be in for a long, dark night indeed.