If we can’t win against a Democrat in a Republican leaning district who made a statement like that (in NY of all places), our party is in big trouble. I think it’s likely Tedisco will win, but the fact that it’s even close is unsettling.

A victory by Tedisco will be a loud shot across the boughs for Democrats. This seat has far more consequences than one additional vote inthe House. You will see a much more timid Democrat Congress, with less unity, if Tedisco wins. Obama’s agenda won’t be rubber stamped so quickly. You’ll start seeing a lot more “maverick” Democrats speak out against his agenda, etc.

If Tedisco loses, it will enormously embolden Democrats. They will think they’re invincible.

http://www.redstate.com/streetwise/2009/03/30/if-you-have-had-enough-vote-tedisco-a-message-for-ny-20th-cd-voters/

Tedisco-51.6%
Murphy-48.4%

Why? – It’s all about turnout.

Even though polls supposedly show it close (and I’m not too comfortable relying on polls on the congressional district level), the turnout advantage should heavily favor the GOP – basically, Republicans have every reason to turn out now, and Democrats have almost no reason to turn out (see: 2006-2008 political period, but now flip it upside down).

I expect Tedisco will win it with a 5% or more margin.

That being said, if the Dems do somehow manage to win this, it goes beyond a disaster – it would be a catastrophe. I shudder to even think about that possibility.

But I don’t think it’ll happen.

Remember if he wins, he is a politician. No matter how good he is now, in 10 years if hes still in the house he will more likely be a target of this forum, rather than an ally. Look at the populist rhetoric he has used during his campaign rally. He is fanning class warfare just as much as democrats. Id rather have a Tedisco than a Murphy any day, but a good conservative who attacks productive class when the government is standing right in front of him with its hand in the cookie jar is kinda disheartening.

The reason why this race is close as it is because Tedisco instead of running against an out of control congress while targeting Queen Nancy, he ran against wall street and his poll numbers plummeted in a republican district.

I really have no idea how this will go

Obama, Gillibrand, Murphy vs Guiliani, Tedisco

Its going to be great day in NY tomorrow so I suspect more turnout then some think

I think this has a lot to do with Gillibrand too cause if Murphy wins it only helps her