I agree. and have agreed for a while. as anyone who has paid attention would have noted.

We will either be right and considered prescient, and sought out for our brilliant political prognostications and feted and paid vast sums of money to help others in their political endeavors…

or we’ll be considered hacks who just refused to acknowledge the obvious…

or neither of the above and we’ll be forgotten.

I’m banking on the first option (minus the lucrative and glorious payback)

I was struck by this paragraph by Sean Malstrom

Political Analysis is not a ’science’, it is a ‘black art’. It depends highly on what is going on the ground. My advantage is that I am not on a sound set in Washington DC, and I am not in a phone bank in Deleware. I can see what is going on in the ground around me (Texas, a state that doesn’t matter, or does it?) and have sources I trust on the ground in other states.

The scientists – with their polling data and regressions – clearly have one view and others have a differnet view based upon their personal experience.

We shall see who is right within a day.

The linked article talks about 538 site and how if PA goes to McCain, Obama will still win based on statistics and polling data.

Well, maybe yes, if all things remained equal. But they wouldn’t be because it would be indicative of movement to McCain that the polls missed — to that degree — that would almost certainly also be reflected elsewhere.

It’s safe to say if PA goes to McCain, the election is over for Obama.

That was the best one-page summary of everything I’ve thought about this election. The only thing that I could’ve added were numbers to the indeces. If the Bradley Effect is worth 5% at least ( according to Rush Limbaugh, et al), the PUMA effect is worth 1% at least, the Party ID oversampling is worth 1% at least, the Palin effect is worth 1% at least, then John McCain is ahead and has been ahead for a while.

Sean has some great on-the-ground information that’s deeper than the national trends that I can see as a relative neophyte observer. I’ve long thought that PA was a bell-weather for the “sea level” concept that he lays out and his analysis makes me very happy due to its thoroughness and conclusion.

“The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” Thomas Jefferson

Join the RedState Strike Force

Or, the inmates are not yet running the asylum – whichever you prefer.

Thanks for the link, that is some meaty analysis there, Moe.

voice in the wilderness.

I had already read it. You can always tell when someone really understands politics and this guy really understands what is going on!

I had just finished reading that article when I decided to see what was up over at RS. I was pleasantly surprised to see it on the front page to say the least!
Being that I live in Germany, I applied for my absentee ballot about 70 days ago. My voter registration card arrived safe and sound, but not my ballot. I called my county elections office back home and the office workers had me fax a ballot they emailed me. My questions are, how do I/Elections officials know that someone did not send back my mail-in absentee ballot? Also how do I know that my faxed ballot will be counted as I voted? Normally I would be more trusting, but stories of voter fraud have me paranoid.

I still don’t know if it’s true.

There is also an alleged problem at the intersection in Tampa causing traffic that may delay voters from going to election precincts on time.

Source:

[Eddie Adams Jr (R - Florida) Injured in Apparent Arson Sabotage, Media Completely Silent] (http://minx.cc/?post=277325)

description. It puts into words what I have sensed for a while now, particularly since the Joe the Plumber treatment. People are mad–mad at the media, mad at the government, and now really fed up with elitists in both parties who deign to tell them what to do and how to do it.

We’re mad as hell and we’re not taking it anymore. Hopefully, that means a McCain win as that would really be poking fingers in a lot of eyes.

I’m surprised to learn that.

I’m a “broken glass conservative” woman. I haven’t voted since Reagan’s second term and I’m in Texas so my vote won’t matter much, but I was out there the first day of early voting the moment the polls opened and I have spent the last few days making calls for “Team Sarah.”

Thank you so much for posting it. I agree that the people like me aren’t being counted and there are a hell of a lot of us out there. When pollsters call my house, they get hung up on.