Race Tied In Gallup Poll, here’s why

Moe, the other thing to look at is the generic congressional polling over at RCP. The GOP has closed most of the huge gap of last summer.

This may take a while to show up in polls for specific House and Senate races, but the bump from the Republican convention and the Palin nomination is definitely having a down-ballot impact.

McCain had Obama dead to rights and pulled back his attack commercials and would not respond to individual attack ads. They knew how to get ahead but it looks like they were lost once they got there.
They are still refusing to answer attack ads against them. Mitt Romney had to be told today by the media that Obama was the second largest recipient of Fannie/Freddie money.
With the financial crises going down everywhere not one ad talking about Obama receiving all of that money. No ads about the fund raiser in California and Obama being out of touch.
There is more then enough time for Obama to turn this into a 45 State rout.

I agree that the lipstick comments were handled badly, McCain and Palin should have shrugged it off. Go back to the spirit of the Celebrity spot, people love a good laugh, especially at the Big O’s expense.

Since the convention we’ve really seen a poor job of it, as Jerminator’s link suggests. We seem to be missing the point the Democratic playbook/ad machine is in its full formulaic swing now. That formula being:

Focus Group Buzzword + McCain quote/vote + Bush image = ad

From the ads and talking points from the Democratic surrogates I’ve seen/heard the past 10 days, the buzzwords that elicit a negative response from the margin are the same they’ve always been: negative ads in general (the he’s running the nastiest campaign ever argument), big oil, and lobbyists. That’s why we see shifts in the polls, while still well within the margin or error, towards Obama. Those buzzwords work on the undecided/unsure/independent voter that will be the difference in the campaign.

What I have not seen (and I am teaching during prime time this semester so maybe I’m missing it on tv) is a strong principled response from McCain on the air. The same ideas that got us a bounce from the convention, and looked so positive on tv during that time can do so once again. But we have to stay strong with the message, and with our attacks – just make them about stuff that will interest people. For instance, Obama’s stance on education, and his ties to the NEA can easily be attacked – we don’t have to focus on something like sex ed for kindergartners when school choice and basic curriculum reform is on the table. We need to talk about how Obama’s tax “cuts” are really anything but. How the Democrats bear responsibility for the current economic crisis, and how capital gains and business tax increases will only make it worse. These issues are there, and will resonate in the middle. I just have not seen them played effectively to date by the McCain team.

1. Being blindsided by the tactics of Charlie Gibson. He’s a confirmed leftist. If Obama has the brains to tell Bill O’Reiley no editing, the McCain people should have been able to do the same.

2. Not fighting back fast and hard against Palin attacks. If they don’t do a better job and run some ads and do some very aggressive refuting in interviews, this could get very nasty.

3. New Tone: McCain saying Obama had a fine record as a community organizer. And Karl Rove “admitting” both sides have gone too negative in the campaign.

4. Why no mention of Born Alive? I thought picking Palin might be a sign Obama might actually have to answer for this.

I’m afraid Republican political dim-wittedness might be striking again.

Its been a tough few bad days for McCain due to economy which sadly will hurt him and all the press stories on how nasty McCain campaign has been

The McCain camp needs to stay on offense and start hitting Obama as being friends with corrupt people like Ayers, mocking people in rural towns with his words on god and guns, and how he was against surge in Iraq which has proven to be a success.

Just a few days ago everyone was chattering about what a bunch of geniuses were running the McCain campaign.

The post convention bounce was expected to come down, that’s why they call it a “bounce”.

We are 48 days out, that is an eternity. This race could go back and forth several more times.

This is not the time for panic or a circular firing squad.

Sheesh!

The national polls are nice to see some swings overall, but doesn’t matter in the end. It comes down to those swing states where all the focus should be at this point. The last batch of swing state polls (Rasmussen/Fox News) were a good sign for McCain.

My biggest worry right now is the economy and the way the McCain campaign has handled it. Regardless of your opinion on the “fundamentals are strong” statement, it wasn’t a smart political statement.

If I was the McCain campaign, I would have Governor Romney doing the talk show circuit. While some may like Ms. Fiorina, I don’t find her to perform well in the media. Governor Romney works the media much better and has an aura to him that makes you trust what he says on economics. He has been grossly underutilized and is vitally important if the party wants to gain some ground from those worried about the future of our economic system.

my read on the polls is that they are basically where they were four weeks ago.

obama’s bounce lasted about a week, and mccain’s lasted about three weeks.

the race is tight and if it were held today it could easily go either way. at this point, the outcome will be determined by the debates and each party’s ground game.

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Bob
Dui In California