UPDATE: An inquiry is out with the White House about what President Bush’s response will be to this invasion of an American ally. Note that it’s 10:30 PM in Beijing, so this may take some time to get.
Putin Says ‘War Has Started,’ Georgia Claims Invasion (Update1)
By Henry Meyer and Ryan Chilcote
Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) — Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said “war has started” in the breakaway region of South Ossetia while Georgia accused Russia of “a well-planned invasion” and appealed to world leaders for help.
Russian “volunteers” are pouring over the border to help defend South Ossetia from Georgian forces, Putin told U.S. President George W. Bush in Beijing today, according to Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili accused Russia of “full-blown military aggression” after civilians died in aerial bombings and wide-spread fighting in and around the disputed region. The country of 4.6 million people is fighting “to secure its borders,” Saakashvili told Bloomberg Television.
More as we get it.
UPDATE: Georgia is, by the way and with our support, trying to join NATO (more here). There’s also resource – read: “oil” – issues involved.
Moe Lane
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On the first day of the Olympics
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 8:13AM EST (link)There is a shocker. I guess the world is in fact a dangerous place, who would have guessed?
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Olympic Invasion
Skanderbeg (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 8:41AM EST (link)Dave, more of an irony than anyone might realize!
I was in that region a couple years ago, and was in Sochi (RU), which is going to be hosting the (irony alert) 2014 Winter Olympics. (Sochi hosting the Winter Olympics makes about as much sense as Cannes hosting the Winter Olympics, but that’s another story.)
Sochi/Adler is right up against what’s supposed to be the Georgian border – but on the other side is another breakaway region – Abkhazia. Same story there as South Ossetia.
Was just reading the Fox report on it
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 8:49AM EST (link)Looks like Russia has bombed Sochi. Not a significant attack, but 3 SU-24s, I think. I might have read that wrong.
That is going to escallate things quick if they are willing to attack territory that is clearly in Georgia, not just the disputed area.
NATO is already on top of this, but who knows where it will go.
Not to make everything political, but the responses of the candidates will be interesting.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
No Blood for oil!
William_L Friday, August 8th at 8:52AM EST (link)Where are those hippies/troofers when you need them?
Good news for America, bad news for democrats
Bad news for America, good news for democrats
The really sad part about his Russian attack...
JadedByPolitics (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 8:56AM EST (link)is there is NO ONE who will do anything not NATO not the UN…Putin can bomb with impunity….there is no one but us with the teeth to stop it and liberals and Democrats will not allow that to happen.
This is only going to get a lot worse.
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Sochi/Tbilisi
Skanderbeg (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 8:57AM EST (link)Hmm, if Russian jets bombed Sochi, then they had vodka with their breakfast cereal. :-O
The Georgians are claiming that Russian jets bombed a military airbase outside Tbilisi and that they shot down two of the attacking planes; Russia denies all of it.
Fog of war….
They're both spectators. I want to hear from the President.
Moe Lane (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 8:59AM EST (link)It’s 10PM there, unfortunately.
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Russia is Weak...
Skanderbeg (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 9:06AM EST (link)I was going to make this a separate comment, but by timing I’ll just make it a reply.
It’s difficult to tell what’s going on, since often there is more heat in the press releases than action on the ground.
But don’t fall into the notion that the big Russian bear is just going to steamroll over little Georgia.
Georgia has quietly developed a rather effective military – which has garnered on-the-ground experience (another irony alert) in Iraq.
In contrast, the Russian military (aside from some parts of the air force) is in dreadful shape. It’s a ramshackle shadow of its old self, with decaying equipment and a “staff” of badly-mistreated conscripts. The sad part is that these poor guys may have the ill-fortune of being slaughtered as cannon fodder.
For the moment, the best parallel I can come up with is Croatia in 1995. The Croatian military quietly re-equipped and (much more importantly) re-trained to a very high state – and then easily evicted the Yugoslav (Serb) army units that had been occupying parts of Croatian territory. The revamped Georgian military may be trying to do something similar now.
Like I said
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 9:08AM EST (link)I probably read it wrong. I’m pretty good with geography, but not that region. I guess I’m about to get an education.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
So how does that play into their NATO bid?
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 9:13AM EST (link)I know that joining NATO requires that you have a sufficiently qualified and equipped military, for obvious reasons (if your going to be asked to help defend the rest of NATO, you need more than bows and arrows).
I don’t know if NATO has any explicit or implicit policy regarding dealing with a “breakaway region”.
To echo Moe though, Bush is getting one of those 3AM calls right now.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Map of Georgia
Skanderbeg (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 9:13AM EST (link)Yeah, crash course in the geography of the third troubled region left by the Ottomans….
Well, at times like this, image searching on “Map of xxxx” is useful. Here’s one to get you started:
That helps with the news reports, as you can quickly see South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Sochi/Adler is just off the edge of the map, right up against the border with Abkhazia….
NATO bid
Skanderbeg (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 9:20AM EST (link)Spot-on, Dave. You hit the nail on the head with their drive to join NATO – that alone tells you that they have been building up their military capabilities just for that effort.
For what it’s worth, both President Bush and “Prime Minister” Putin are in Beijing for the Olympics, and supposedly have already met to discuss the situation. As Moe says, we wait….
Another irony alert here is that South Ossetia is one of those “non-state state” issues that’s been festering for some time (recalling the ambiguous “Bosnian Serb Republic” of the mid-1990s). When I was in Sochi two years ago, you could see that tour operators were offering day trips into Abkhazia – you didn’t need anything more than already being in Russia to go (no Georgian visa/passport control – no Georgian control at all).
There’s also the Transdniestr non-state state that’s supposed to be part of Moldova. And there are others.
Ok, I think I've got the story right now
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 9:24AM EST (link)There is a Russian column moving toward Tskhinvali, the capital of the province. The Russians have also bombed Gori (is that in or out of the province? I can’t tell) and Tibilisi the Georgian capital.
So this has escallated outside of the province itself, but not hugely, yet.
Regardless, we have a shooting war inside the province.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Here's my amateurish take on the whole situation...
Cheetah772 (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 9:35AM EST (link)If I were in power, I’d prefer the US to take neutral stance officially. But in private, I’d find a way to support Georgia, at least by proxy. And by support, I don’t mean arms and military supplies, but twisting Russia’s arm to resolve this quickly as possible, and preferably in Georgia’s favor.
In fact, I think this is a perfect opportunity to let Russia bleed a bit, I have confidence in Georgian military’s ability to tie up Russian resources and manpower and draw the battle to at least either inconclusive or a decisive victory. On downside, it would give Putin a chance to muscle up Russia and get rid of unruly elements within Russian military if it fails to perform to Putin’s expectations.
The US could use this little war to sell the idea to every former Soviet bloc country by placing American missile defense systems on their soil is definitely a good one. If done correctly, the US could increase military cooperation between such countries as Estonia, Ukraine, Poland, and others. The goal of the US should be to deny Russia every opportunity to build up its forces and increase the neighboring countries’ cooperation on military matters at Russia’s expense.
I don’t and will never consider Russia a friend, but neither do I want to make her an angry enemy. I’d prefer to have relations between Russia and the US at an impasse…more of an impasse in the US’s favor. The US needs to drive home the message that the US is going to do whatever it takes to stay on the top, even if it means stepping on an old foe’s toes. Make no apologies for that.
None at all. Period.
Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
Defending our Ally?
Conservative_Heretic Friday, August 8th at 9:35AM EST (link)Long time lurker first time poster.
Since we have troops based in Georgia and we are their ally, is it reasonable to assume the US could get pulled into this conflict? This is an issue I am very ignorant on but undestand that there are many types of alliances. Thank you in advance for the answer.
Clearly another situation that calls for the profound expertise of The One nt
streetwise (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 9:53AM EST (link)No, the One is too busy being a celebrity! -nt
Cheetah772 (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:01AM EST (link)nt
Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
Strange, a breakout of armed conflict in an oil producing region
Brian Hibbert (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:03AM EST (link)and the price of crude has dropped more than $3.00/barrel.
Of course the dollar is rallying which may be dropping the dollar price of crude. Flight to safety, maybe?
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We have to be fair about this.
Moe Lane (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:08AM EST (link)People are on flights, away from phones, on different continents and time zones, and otherwise caught by surprise.
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Russian Planes downed?
Robert_Chamberlain Friday, August 8th at 10:08AM EST (link)It may be that the Russians will get a bloody nose, since they’ve recently been training w/ NATO (US troops are, I think, on Georgian soil). Also, the Georgians are saying that they took down 2 Russian jets already, which is very interesting, pending verification/release of the types of planes involved.
Also, Skanderberg, don’t write off the Russian military. True, they are a shadow of their former self, but much of their gear is still high quality. Not US standards, but still very high quality. Take some of the Russian fighters and fighter bombers that are in that region. Nowhere near the F-22, but still very respectable. Which is why its going to be interesting to see what, if anything, the Georgians shot down.
The one? I think he's actually "the zero" now
Joe_Schmo (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:11AM EST (link)with that new sign they have.
Take any "Planes downed" numbers with a pound of salt
JKH1232 (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:12AM EST (link)They are universally overstated. I’m sure there were press releases in the Italo-Tukish war that included claims of dozens of Italian airplanes shot down by valiant Turkish gunners, and the Lybians claimed they won the Gulf of Sidra shootout.
That said, I do expect Russia to get a bloodier nose than they expect to get, but I’m just betting a trend line.
If anyone doubts why McCain needs to be the next Commander in Chief
Darin_H (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:14AM EST (link)Please see Exhibit A this morning. Can we really afford to have someone with just about zero experience in the White House?
Even though they aren’t in NATO just yet, there needs to be some sort of show by the NATO countries that we will not tolerate this (not saying troops just yet).
A visionary coward says that anger can be power, as long as there’s a victim on TV – Flat Top, Goo Goo Dolls
a question Skanderbeg
pilgrim (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:14AM EST (link)Is there an interest by the rebels in this part of Georgia for a new country that supports Russia? Or do the rebels there want to become a Russian Republic? I’m thinking that Russia wants the latter, but I have not read enough about the situation to know what the rebels want.
Honestly calls to my mind
JoeH (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:16AM EST (link)Honestly calls to my mind the situation with Texas Circa 1835. It seems to me that Russia is pulling in these provinces with ethnic ties through open immigration. The only long term goal for this would be to eventually roll them back into Russia. As was mentioned above, they can now claim to be protecting their citizens living in the region as well.
Russian Planes
Skanderbeg (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:16AM EST (link)I agree on the planes (see my comments above on the air force being a partial exception to the rot).
But the army is in awful shape, and the morale-and-troop-quality situation is even worse. It’s mostly a conscript force of poor saps serving out their time and hoping that they don’t get swept up in something awful.
And the mistreatment situation has become so scandalous that even Vlad himself has had to acknowledge that they have a problem.
I agree fully that we can’t write off Russia in this. What I’m trying to make sure we understand is that we shouldn’t write off Georgia – based on the Russia-vs.-Georgia size differential.
My actual expectation is that there’s much less going on than the present news reports indicate. Posturing is very important for today….
Well, that depends.
JKH1232 (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:18AM EST (link)Yeah, the standard answer in a developing diplomatic crisis. Laughs
The fight right now is in a province that both Georgia and Russia claim. It seems that Russia has been de facto running the place through a rebel group with “Peacekeeper” tripwire. Georgia went on the offensive against the rebels in the province.
The Russian forces are being described as “Volunteers,” so the Russian government is trying to, diplomatically speaking, separate itself from the action. While there’s been some mention of the “58th Army,” Whatever the heck that is, the column that departed Russia is about 150 assorted AFVs, so it’s not a major incursion, either.
As it stands, the fighting seems to be currently limited to one area, and the Russian attack is currently limited. Basically, they’re in a position where they can disavow the whole thing, or escalate it. American direct involvement will depend on how the Russians act, I think.
Of course, if someone knows better, please say so.
Obama's position will be clear
bk (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:23AM EST (link)As soon as Bush and McBush state a position, The One will tell us that he believes we should do the exact opposite.
Well, the Dollar's rally may not be about Georgia.
JKH1232 (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:26AM EST (link)There’s been a ripple effect in the world economy from the Credit Crisis. Essentially, while we’ve been hovering on a recession, Europe, China and the rest of Asia’s about to run smack into it. Or, at least that’s what it looks like. The ECB just stopped raising intrest rates and said growth was a major problem.
When there’s economic trouble in the world, bet on America. At the end of the day, it’s usually the safe bet- and so, the Dollar rises, oil falls… etc.
An amateur’s analysis. Don’t bet on it, and there are smarter people to ask even here.
Open Question...
Skanderbeg (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:44AM EST (link)That’s a good question, and I really can’t offer anything beyond what we’re all reading. I don’t claim any special knowledge other than a brief business trip to the region a couple years ago and seeing (as mentioned) that entry to Abkhazia was basically treated as just moving around inside Russia (from a passport/visa viewpoint).
The only certainty is that these places are supposed to be territorially part of Georgia, but they are de facto of ambiguous status – if anything (see above), they seem to be more under Russian than Georgian control. But Russia has not bothered to just go ahead and annex them – even though they are geographically contiguous with Russia (n.b. – Transdniestr is NOT – only other border is with Ukraine). Complete mystery.
BTW, one of the sidelights of this situation is the near-hysteria it provokes up in the Baltic countries – I’m expecting a slew of panic about this from that quarter before the end of the day. For example, in the eastern part of Estonia (around Narva, on the border), the population is ethnically about 90% Russian – so they worry about the South Ossetia and Abkhazia situations setting a precedent for the peeling away of border regions for similar reasons….
US Military Personnel at Bombed Georgian Airbase?
Stinger808 (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:45AM EST (link)Stratfor:
The airbase is located east of Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital.
Rustavi TV is Georgian.
Moe, isn't that why Obama is supposed to be the One?
Cheetah772 (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 10:46AM EST (link)If Obama is going to be our anointed Lord, then isn’t he supposed to be omniscient?
Daniel 2:20 And he [God] changeth the times and seasons: he removeth kings, and setteth up kings: he giveth wisdom unto the wise, and knowledge to them that know understanding.
But but... what about teaching the RiNOs a lesson? (nt)
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Timing is everything
Robert_Chamberlain Friday, August 8th at 11:06AM EST (link)Moe,
You note an interesting point. The Russian timing on this is extremely interesting. The President is out of the country (and a lame duck thanks to a pending election), Congress is out of session, the Olympics are going on, and the world seemed generally distracted away from the Caucuses.
Just speculating, but it seems that this timing means that the Russians had this planned for a while. It seems ideally timed to allow for maximum inaction on the world’s part, while giving Russia enough time to conjure up an excuse (“We’re protecting our citizens, we swear”).
Maybe the One can solve this with personal unconditional meetings and understanding and healing….I hear (from him) he’s good at that.
Obama: This isn't the South Ossetia I knew... (nt)
Neil Stevens (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 11:08AM EST (link)RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
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“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder
Timing is everything
Robert_Chamberlain Friday, August 8th at 11:16AM EST (link)Moe,
You note an interesting point. The Russian timing on this is extremely interesting. The President is out of the country (and a lame duck thanks to a pending election), Congress is out of session, the Olympics are going on, and the world seemed generally distracted away from the Caucuses.
Just speculating, but it seems that this timing means that the Russians had this planned for a while. It seems ideally timed to allow for maximum inaction on the world’s part, while giving Russia enough time to conjure up an excuse (“We’re protecting our citizens, we swear”).
Maybe the One can solve this with personal unconditional meetings and understanding and healing….I hear (from him) he’s good at that.
And then..
chemjeff (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 11:31AM EST (link)And then he will change his position to support McCain’s, and when called on his flip-flop, will angrily declare that “it’s been my position all along…”
Early Political Responses
JKH1232 (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 11:42AM EST (link)Reuters is reporting McCain’s already called for Russia to withdraw and a Security Council meeting.
Short Report here.
I just hope .....
kchand Friday, August 8th at 11:46AM EST (link)…for the sake of the planet, that this does not distract the Georgians from keeping their automobile tires fully inflated.
——————–
The ‘N’ word is November! Nov 6, 2012 will be the next cleansing.
I just hope .....
kchand Friday, August 8th at 12:08PM EST (link)…for the sake of the planet, that this does not distract the Georgians from keeping their automobile tires fully inflated.
——————–
The ‘N’ word is November! Nov 6, 2012 will be the next cleansing.
Tit-for-tat
Wycoff Friday, August 8th at 12:30PM EST (link)While I think that there may more sympathy (or more indifference) for Russian claims in the Caucases and Dneister region (mostly because those areas are not as well known to the west, nor as they as well developed), I think that the Baltic states are completely off the table for Russia.
The U.S. and E.U. should make it clear that if Russia tries to land grab in the Baltics, then the E.U. (read: Germany) will take back East Prussia (Kaliningrad)
Tit-for-Tat
Wycoff Friday, August 8th at 12:38PM EST (link)While I think that there may more sympathy (or more indifference) for Russian claims in the Caucases and Dneister region (mostly because those areas are not as well known to the west, nor as they as well developed), I think that the Baltic states are completely off the table for Russia.
The U.S. and E.U. should make it clear that if Russia tries to land grab in the Baltics, then the E.U. (read: Germany) will take back East Prussia (Kaliningrad)
sorry for the double post- I initally responded to the wrong comment
Timing is everything
Robert_Chamberlain Friday, August 8th at 12:46PM EST (link)Moe,
You note an interesting point. The Russian timing on this is extremely interesting. The President is out of the country (and a lame duck thanks to a pending election), Congress is out of session, the Olympics are going on, and the world seemed generally distracted away from the Caucuses.
Just speculating, but it seems that this timing means that the Russians had this planned for a while. It seems ideally timed to allow for maximum inaction on the world’s part, while giving Russia enough time to conjure up an excuse (“We’re protecting our citizens, we swear”).
Maybe the One can solve this with personal unconditional meetings and understanding and healing….I hear (from him) he’s good at that.
the context
pennington Friday, August 8th at 2:01PM EST (link)I think those who talk about Russian timing have missed that fact that Georgia struck at South Ossetia first. I don’t think Russian timed anything.
There is North Ossetia (a Russian province) and South Ossetia (a Georgian province). The Ossetians are a separate ethnic group that comprise the vast majority of the population in South Ossetia. Georgians are a minority. The people of South Ossetia consistently supported their own independence, voted on it, and declared it, although it has not received international recognition. Nonetheless, since 1992, they have lived as a more or less autonomous province and their ties to Russia have deepened. Many South Ossetians are Russian citizens with Russian passports. Since he came into office, the current leader of Georgia, a nationalist, has continually threatened to invade and retake control of South Ossetia. He just tried it. It is true that Russia has been using the political unrest in South Ossetia to pressure Georgia not to join the NORTH ATLANTIC treaty organization; however, still, it’s not a totally one sided affair.
the context
pennington Friday, August 8th at 2:03PM EST (link)I think those who talk about Russian timing have missed that fact that Georgia struck at South Ossetia first. I don’t think Russian timed anything.
There is North Ossetia (a Russian province) and South Ossetia (a Georgian province). The Ossetians are a separate ethnic group that comprise the vast majority of the population in South Ossetia. Georgians are a minority. The people of South Ossetia consistently supported their own independence, voted on it, and declared it, although it has not received international recognition. Nonetheless, since 1992, they have lived as a more or less autonomous province and their ties to Russia have deepened. Many South Ossetians are Russian citizens with Russian passports. Since he came into office, the current leader of Georgia, a nationalist, has continually threatened to invade and retake control of South Ossetia. He just tried it. It is true that Russia has been using the political unrest in South Ossetia to pressure Georgia not to join the NORTH ATLANTIC treaty organization; however, still, it’s not a totally one sided affair.
The fact that a dollar rise has such an impact on oil
streetwise (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 3:21PM EST (link)is further evidence of the enormous, speculative movement of capital into the energy markets, distorting prices in the pursuit of a short-term gains.
5
Samuel Gilleran (Diary) Friday, August 8th at 3:43PM EST (link)I lol’d.
I hate the IRS.
All in all Russia is the world enemy...
AlexR Sunday, August 10th at 6:05AM EST (link)Do you want to make Russia an angry enemy or not, you can not change anything. Russia becomes the main enemy in the world.
Nobody called Georgia to stop fire, when they kill Ossetians, and bombing their capital. And when the Russian troops came to stop this, the world calls Russia to cease-fire…
The “World News” reporters work in Tbilisi or near… and no one wors in Tskhinvali or near. I don’t think they are cowards and afraid of the “angry Russians”, but they just doing they work – they display Russia as enemy. And there are no alternative viewpoints.
Freedom for nations, but not for the states!
All in all Russia is the world enemy...
AlexR Sunday, August 10th at 6:05AM EST (link)Do you want to make Russia an angry enemy or not, you can not change anything. Russia becomes the main enemy in the world.
Nobody called Georgia to stop fire, when they kill Ossetians, and bombing their capital. And when the Russian troops came to stop this, the world calls Russia to cease-fire…
The “World News” reporters work in Tbilisi or near… and no one wors in Tskhinvali or near. I don’t think they are cowards and afraid of the “angry Russians”, but they just doing they work – they display Russia as enemy. And there are no alternative viewpoints.
Freedom for nations, but not for the states!