There are several interesting developments in that poll–downright fascinating if they hold.

but since they are three-day rolling figures he hasn’t leap-frogged him yet. Give it a day or two.

On a semi-tangent, I always like how “experts” talk about margin of error. (Disclaimer: I have a math degree.) If MOE is 4.5 and the lead is 4, pundits will say it’s within the MOE as though it’s in effect a tie, when it could just about as easily be a blowout as a tie. By the same token, if the lead is 5 it’s assumed to be golden when it could just about as easily be a tie as a blowout. And at any rate national numbers don’t matter – only state numbers do – so it’s meaningless to some extent no matter what.

I don’t see a thing there that is negative to McCain. Amazing. It’s like all of a sudden someone’s been putting IQ-building serum in the U.S. water supply.

here

A noticeable decline in those claiming to be Dems. Excellent.

As someone with at least some statistical background, I’d like to see the polls presented more in the terms of a distribution. It would give me a better understanding of the breakdown.

Rassmussen has been trending in this direction on a slow glide slope for the last 3 weeks.

I’m starting to be redundant, but without any positive action by Obama, this slide will continue. Three weeks ago, the soft support was with Obama. Two weeks ago they went back to undecided. Now they are starting to decide for McCain. We should see a final halt with McCain at 48/49 and Obama at 45/44 prior to the Denver.

After Denver, expect a modest bounce for Obama, followed by a swift reversal to 2 to 3 point McCain lead after Minneapolis. From there on, it is all about whether Obama can find a narrative that works with the swing voters. If the race doesn’t have a dramatic incident that changes the election (like a terrible debate performance by one of them), then this election will be won by McCain by 3 to 6 points, and around 290 EVs.

If this is the start of a minor trend, we can hopefully get off the defensive on the Electoral College. We have to win the vast majority of the current swing states to get 270. Meanwhile, Obama is trying to pick off several other states (like Nevada, Montana, Alaska, and heaven forbid Georgia) that keeps us highly on the defensive.
If PA, MI, and NJ were at least in play, it would give us so much more wiggle room.

Right now I believe we HAVE to win- FL, NC, MO, NV, OH, VA (all valid toss up states) and one more state that currently polls towards Obama with at least 5 EV e.g. CO or NM. That’s also assuming no other state somehow slips away.

If we deviate from that, then our only shot is to pull out a win in MI or PA. But a few more points nationally (or just state polls catching up) will likely give us as many opportunities to 270 as the Dems. What I’d give to make Obama go on the defensive in NJ…

{Don’t bother responding: his lack of ability in that regard was what got him banned last time. – Moe Lane}

That’s a 2 pt gain from yesterday’s results. Unless McCain has a better day today, then tomorrows survey will be back in the 4-5 pt range.

WWW.Gallup.com