Good Stuff Happening in Arizona!


We have good stuff happening in Arizona in the races for the House of Representatives. Very good stuff.

Arizona currently has eight House seats and they are currently split 5D/3R. That’s about to change in 58 days. We have two districts that are pretty effectively Gerrymandered into liberal seats – one held by Ed Pastor and one by Raul Grijalva. Pastor represents CD04 and has been in Congress for 20 years. Raul represents a district in Tucson that is significantly to the left of the district that sends Nancy Pelosi to Congress and he’s routinely noted as the most liberal member of Congress. He was the primary sponsor of ObamaCare and he’s made a name for himself here in Arizona by repeatedly calling for boycotts over SB1070. Those two Critters will be Members of Congress until (and after) the Lord comes back.

There are however, three other seats that should flip this election.

  • CD05 – Harry Mitchell.
  • CD01 – Ann Kirkpatrick.
  • CD08 – Gabrielle Giffords.

American Action Forum polled competitive districts in the West August 23-29 and here’s a snapshot of their results for the three districts in question:

I find the snapshots from this polling to be really encouraging across the board.

For all three races there are some very consistent results.

  • Right/Wrong Track consistently favors the Challengers.
  • The issue of the Economy favors the Challengers and it’s not likely that the job market is going to improve any time soon in Arizona. As a side issue related to Jobs, Arizona Democrats are calling for boycotts of the State because of SB1070. Boycotts of a State where tourism is a major industry are not helpful.
  • Then there’s Illegal Immigration. While it was cited by a relatively small number of voters as “major” issue it was typically the #2 issue raised. Here in Arizona, “Illegal Immigration” is a code phrase to two things: SB1070, which is favored by about 70% of Arizona voters and the lawsuits that have been brought by the Obama Administration. It’s interesting to note that the State is projecting that it will cost about $1MM to defend the DoJ suits. We’ve already raised about $3MM mostly from out-of-state donors. Without asking. Thank you.
  • With respect to the question of what is most likely to influence their vote, voters in all three districts highlight the same four things and all of them favor the Challengers.
  • Did I mention ObamaCare? Well, the voters did. All three Democratic incumbents FOR ObamaCare. All three Republican Challengers want to repeal it. Voters in all three districts STRONGLY OPPOSE ObamaCare in greater numbers than voters who support it in any manner. By a lot. Did I mention that all three Democrats voted for, and are quite pleased with, their support of ObamaCare?

Now then, with respect to the individual races.

First of all, and the closest, Giffords v Kelly. Jesse Kelly is a former US Marine in his first political outing. He beat John Paton to win the nomination even though Paton is a former State Senator, is a conservative with a good legislative record and had a huge edge (just like Giffords does now) in both name recognition and money. Paton endorsed Kelly immediately after the election. The really amazing thing about Kelly is that he’s effectively tied with Giffords even though 41% of the voters in his district either don’t know anything about him or have never heard of him. Jesse can win this race but he needs some financial help. Hopefully both Governor Brewer and Senator McCain will find the time to campaign for Jesse and will help him financially, Lord knows McCain can afford it and they’ve both got the time given that both will win their races by big double digits. Jesse is on the right side of every issue that is of concern to CD08 voters and Giffords is simply wrong. She does have lots of money though. Did I mention that Jesse could use a few bucks? If you’re like me and you live in a district where there really isn’t a race (I’m in CD03, John Shadegg’s old district and Ben Quayle should win going away), send Jesse some money.

In both the remaining districts, the Republican Challengers have a decent lead, again given that their name recognition isn’t all that great. David Schweikert has a six point lead and half the district don’t know him.

And then there’s Dr. Paul Gosar. If I was Ann Kirkpatrick I’d be on suicide watch. 70% of the voters don’t know about him and he’s got a six point lead with 47% of the vote. There’s really not much to say after that except “Go Gosar!”

Every one of these districts should be represented by not just a “Republican”, but a solidly conservative Republican in the next Congress.



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21 Comments Leave a comment

Very good news. Very good diary.

itrytobenice (Diary) Monday, September 6th at 1:18PM EST (link)

And very good snark here: Those two Critters will be Members of Congress until (and after) the Lord comes back.

And btw, I’m *crazy* happy with our new crop of military candidates. My initial prejudice in every one of these cases is that a man who’s willing to lay down his life for our country is trustworthy to govern it without using his office for self-aggrandizement. (Wow, I spelled that right in my first shot. So proud of self. ;-) )

Proper grammar saves lives.

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Schweikert has 77% name ID

conservativeviews Monday, September 6th at 7:52PM EST (link)

Just correcting the record, you put that half the district doesn’t know Schweikert, but according to the poll you cite he has 77% name recognition. http://americanactionforum.org/files/AAF%20AZ%2005%20Memo.pdf
Of the three Arizona races, Schweikert has the best shot. Not only is he 6 points ahead of his opponent, but he is polling a whopping 50% of the vote, not 40% or so. That means there are hardly any undecided voters, very little room left for Mitchell to catch up. And according to an article from one of the most astute politicos in town, the Democrats aren’t going to bother putting much money into this race; maybe the other two, but this one is a goner. http://www.espressopundit.com/2010/09/dnr.html

I Agree - Of The Three, AZ-05 Is The Closest To a 'Shoo-In'

IJB Monday, September 6th at 9:35PM EST (link)

Schweikert has already run once, and while sometimes “2-time loser” syndrome sets in (e.g. that’s why a lot of people didn’t want Mike Sodrel running in IN-09 again…), in Schweikert’s case it works to his advantage because he’s known in that district already and everything he said about Harry Mitchell has proven true. And undecideds will *NOT* break towards Mitchel – the 45% he’s currently got is probably his “ceiling”.

AZ-01 looks next best – I was a little worried that the rural make-up of that district might allow Kirkpatrick to pull a fast one, but it looks like they’re on to her, so I think she’s likely gone.

The toughest one is AZ-08 – Giffords talks out of about eight sides of her mouth, so it’s going to take a well-financed, disciplined campaign to take her down, in the ‘swingiest’ of these three districts. But, in the end, I think she’ll probably go down too (though, probably by the smallest margin – it may end up being a 50%-48% result in AZ-08…)

 

No and yes.

mbecker908 (Diary) Monday, September 6th at 9:53PM EST (link)

I didn’t comment on “name ID”, I commented on people’s opinion of David. Name ID comes from the total of people who like him (fav) + don’t like him (unf) + have no opinion of him (nop). And you’re right, that’s 77%. To me, the much more important number is fav compared to the number of voters who said they would vote for him.

David will win. So will Gosar. Jesse Kelly needs money and he’ll win.

 
 

Good news from Pinal County, AZ too.

deano64 (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 1:02PM EST (link)

For the first time ever in the history of Pinal County the Republicans hold the registered voter advantage! So that’s the first time since 1875 (I think somewhere around there). I think that’s pretty amazing! I think we also have a very good chance to flip the State Senate seat for LD 23 from D to R.

Precinct Committeeman before it was cool.

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.”
Alexis De Tocqueville

 

AZ Will Be A Blowout For Republicans, but

crosley (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 1:25PM EST (link)

I think Republicans will pick up at least 2 of the 3 Congressional races, (Kelly being the weakest) but I honestly think Quayle could blow what should have been a shoo in for Republicans. You know it’s a bad sign when a partisan Republican like myself is uncertain whether they can pull the lever for him, and I’m not alone.

Primary voters made some bad decisions. Had Paton won the nomination, it would have been a shoo-in for a pickup for Republicans.

The problem I have with these picks is I can’t honestly see any candidate having a different voting record once in Congress. Was Kelly more conservative than Paton? Possibly, but I doubt the two would have cast one vote any differently, and Paton was unquestionably a conservative.

You might as well pick the strongest one that can actually knock the Democrat off.

In case you hadn't noticed crosley, the primary is over.

mbecker908 (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 3:30PM EST (link)

And, like it or not, we go to war with the army we’ve got. Rehashing and whining about the result isn’t just counterproductive or stupid, it’s idiotic.

I live in CD03 and supported Pam Gorman. I’ll proudly cast my vote for Ben Quayle.

In CD08 John Paton is supporting Jesse Kelly and I would suggest you do the same.

Conservative in the primary, Republican in the general. If you don’t get that go post at HuffPo. And feel free not to dirty up any of my diaries with this crap.

 
 

Serenity now

crosley (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 3:58PM EST (link)

I agreed with you on nearly every point, I just added that Kelly wasn’t our strongest candidate, a point you also conceded in your post. Would I vote wholeheartedly for Kelly if I lived in that district? Of course, but it’s worth mentioning why we have an uphill battle there.

My issue with Quayle is not ideological, he has a very questionable past (something Erick Erickson brought up) he’s immature, and has never voted in a single local election. I’ve seen Quayle and met him, and I’d be embarrassed to have him as my Congressman. I usually vote on Party, but this time it’s a bridge too far.

Why even have a diary with comments, did you just want everyone to write “I agree”? Are no other conservatives from Arizona allowed to give their opinion?

crosley I've certainly had my disagreements

deano64 (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 8:56PM EST (link)

with mbecker908. But one thing we will never disagree on is this: Conservative in the primary Republican in the general! What don’t you get about this? Paton didn’t win the primary so quit crying about it and support Kelly. Quayle is also now our guy like it or not so we need to support him too. If you don’t want to get on board and support Republican candidates you really aren’t welcome here. I’ll be voting for a certain Senator whom I really dislike but sometimes that’s just the way it is. It certainly beats the alternative.

Precinct Committeeman before it was cool.

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.”
Alexis De Tocqueville

5, Deano. Just 5. (nt)

IJB Tuesday, September 7th at 9:03PM EST (link)

I'm not arguing otherwise

crosley (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 10:48PM EST (link)

I’ve always been for the strategy of voting Republican in the general election, I’ve been through a lot of elections where my first choice didn’t win, but I still voted for the eventual nominee (like McCain).

But every once in blue moon, I can’t just check the name with an (R) after it, similar to what happened in NY-23 where Scozzafava was the Republican nominee. Were conservatives wrong to back Hoffman? I’m not telling conservatives to not vote for Quayle, I’m just saying I personally can’t, and I think an easy district for Republicans to win will be much harder.

I don’t think it’s out of line to lament the fact that Republicans would have been much more likely to have a clean sweep in Az and had to expend fewer resources had better candidates been picked when we’re discussing the election dynamics.

Yes you are.

mbecker908 (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 11:44PM EST (link)

I honestly think Quayle could blow what should have been a shoo in for Republicans. You know it’s a bad sign when a partisan Republican like myself is uncertain whether they can pull the lever for him, and I’m not alone.

And yes, it’s totally out line to lament…

The primary is over. Get over it.

And by way of example, I happen to detest John McCain. Everybody knows that. Right now I’m going out of my way to find positive things to say about him that I happen to think are true. I’ll do the same for Quayle. And if they come up short in the next Congress I’ll criticize them on an actual, factual basis. Until then, they’re on my “Hero Wall” right along with Scott Brown and both of the ME Girls, all of whom will vote for the Republican as Senate Majority Leader.

 

crosley, comparing these races to NY23 is

deano64 (Diary) Wednesday, September 8th at 11:58AM EST (link)

comparing apples and oranges and I actually find it disingenuous of you. Everyone knows NY23 was a special election where the local Republican establishment chose the candidate. In these AZ races Republican voters made their choice. If you can’t respect that you need to go find a site that encourages crying and whining about our own candidates. We are here to support Republicans and help get them elected even when they are imperfect or we didn’t get our “guy or gal”.

Precinct Committeeman before it was cool.

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public’s money.”
Alexis De Tocqueville

 

Ben Quayle = Dede ScuzzyFuzzy?

eburke (Diary) Thursday, September 9th at 9:44PM EST (link)

Are you serious?

a) Please list the GOP insiders responsible for Quayle’s nomination.

b) Please list the issues on which Ben Quayle is to the *left* of his opponent.

Failure to do so indicates that you need to get over it and quit whining, or go post over at the HuffPo or be a KosKid.

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

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Oh, and btw...I supported Sam Crump in the primary. -nt-

eburke (Diary) Thursday, September 9th at 9:44PM EST (link)

“All that need be done for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”

Unified Patriots

 
 
 
 
 

Disingenuous Democrats

awake Tuesday, September 7th at 8:12PM EST (link)

Just for the sheer fact that Democrats have shown to be dishonest and in it for themselves rather than truly representing their constituents, we should be casting our votes to a more conservative candidate. I live in AZ and all last year I wrote letters, faxed one page notes and emailed missives to our state representatives about the spending and programs which trespass on our rights. I’ve stood in protest in front of their offices and had gone to town hall meetings. It was clear to me that NONE of them want ed to hear from the voters yet it’s the voters they are to represent. In other words, there’s either a serious backbone issue or a rapacious need to line their pockets. Either way, they’re not what we the people want as our representative. It is behavior the people of my state don’t possess nor do they tolerate.

 

Well 'Beck being back to a 6-2 advantage in the AZ Delegation is going to be pretty nice

Richard Mullins (Diary) Tuesday, September 7th at 11:58PM EST (link)

over here in Texas, we hold a 20-12 advantage and hope to change it to at least a 22-10 or even better than that. 22-10 would be 2/3 Republican in the delegation and would more reflect the state as a whole.

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Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.

Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.

 

Shooting a metaphor across Your boy Mccains bow

OccamsRazor (Diary) Wednesday, September 8th at 4:00AM EST (link)

Turned out well after all, eh?

 

my thoughts

lovethetruth Thursday, September 9th at 6:26PM EST (link)

I hear you saying that this is the army we are stuck with. I agree we are forced to toe the line and support them. But, I do not like it and do not agree that it is necessarily good. How do we defeat liberals if they have joined the Republican party, split the vote and made the ticket? That is really just pulling us further and further left– just a little more slowly.

This last two years has been terrible. The last forty years brought us to this last two years. Forty years of saying no to liberals only to have them overrun the nation by this very tactic. While toeing the line may get republicans elected, it will not get conservatives elected. I want to see a plan that will defeat liberals completely.

Have a nice day in your dream world.

mbecker908 (Diary) Thursday, September 9th at 8:40PM EST (link)

And if you really “lovethetruth” you’d not be writing this drivel.

Unless conservatives run as Republicans they will not get elected. Period. And not every general election candidate will be a conservative. Ever. For example, here in Arizona we did not run a credible primary candidate against John McCain. We had a couple who could have given him a real run and JD was never on that list. Next time around, hopefully, if McCain decides to pull a Strom, we’ll have a credible candidate and a plan to win.

Then there are states like Maine and Massachusetts. Don’t plan on getting anybody much farther to the right than the current incumbents from those states.

The critical things, in order of importance are really quite simple. Total numbers of elected Republicans. Number of principled conservatives. Ability to impact the leadership and the agenda.

 
 

I spent Sunday at the Coconino County Fair at

Flagstaff (Diary) Thursday, September 9th at 8:22PM EST (link)

the Republican booth. Paul Gosar was there for an hour or more, and he’s spoken to us several times. He’s the real deal, a conservative with the speaking ability to make our case and who will make it.

Better yet, he’s not a lawyer, but a dentist. And he’s organizing events with the other seven candidates that he defeated to meet the public and spread the Republican word.

“The press is so powerful in its image-making role that it can make a criminal look like he’s the victim and make the victim look like he’s the criminal. If you aren’t careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed and loving the people who are doing the oppressing.”– Malcolm X, Audubon Ballroom, December 13, 1964