The NRCC released this ad today for the IN-2 open Congressional seat. It’s the first ad they’ve produced for a Congressional race this cycle, so they must think the seat is winnable for the GOP. In 2010, Democrat Rep. Joe Donnelly barely won re-election. Former State Rep. Jackie Walorski came within one point of flipping the seat. Walorski is running again in 2012, and she has one of the most renowned grassroots networks in the entire state.

As the ad states, Brendan Mullen does not live in Indiana and hasn’t lived there in many years (he was handpicked by the Democrat machine in South Bend). The majority of his money comes from out of state (Jackie gets near 90 percent of her money from within the state). Unsurprisingly, the labor unions comprise a major part of his fundraising.

Here’s hoping a home-grown Hoosier will knock off a D.C. insider and pick up another seat for the GOP in 2012!

Here’s Jackie’s webpage if you want to learn more about her: www.standwithjackie.com

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Conservatives in Indiana are going to have a stellar year. 2008 was an aberration, and you can be sure that Barack Obama will lose the Hoosier State in 2012. People here are absolutely sick of this stuff. Under the leadership of Gov. Daniels, Indiana is the island of sanity in a bleeding Midwest. Because the Dems have screwed up so drastically, the 2010 election will see Republican comebacks all across the state ballot.

The 2010 goals for Indiana Republicans are threefold:

1. Win back Evan Bayh’s Senate seat.
2. Win back the Indiana State House of Representatives.
3. Win back the 3 US House seats lost in 2006.

I have no idea who will win the Republican Senate primary in May, but I can tell you that the winner will most likely be the next Senator from Indiana. So, if you want Marlin Stutzman to be that man, now is the time to donate to him. Brad Ellsworth kissed the Senate seat goodbye with his November and March votes for healthcare. He’ll get a good chunk of Evan Bayh’s campaign money, but it won’t matter. This seat is ready for the taking, and it will be taken.

The Indiana House of Representatives is also ready to flip red. Gov. Daniels got most of his reforms through in 2005 and 2006, when the General Assembly was briefly controlled by Republicans. In 2006, Dems won back the House and they have been thwarting him ever since. The Indiana State House of Representatives is one of the most competitive legislative chambers in the United States. Both parties control it off and on, and rarely ever with more than a 5 or 6 seat majority. It will tip to the GOP in the coming wave this November.

Finally, the three Blue Dogs that were elected in 2006 (Ellsworth, Hill, and Donnelly) all have enormous targets on their backs. They have played the moderate game well, but they all fell in line when Pelosi gave the order. Indiana is always the first state to report on election nights, and in 2006, the loss of 3 competitive districts foreshadowed the rest of the night. 2010, however, will be just the flip. 2010 will be for us what 2006 was for the Dems. These three districts will flip red.

In IN-2, the NRCC has recruited a very strong candidate in State Rep. Jackie Walorski. NRCC has been trying to get her to run for several cycles, and she finally decided now was the time to do it. If you don’t know much about Jackie, check out her webpage (www.standwithjackie.com). Mike Pence just endorsed her this week, and Mitch Daniels and Marlin Stutzman have already done so.

In IN-9, Mike Sodrel is running against Baron Hill for the billionth time (he beat Hill in 2004, and he’ll do it again this year).

IN-8 is known as the “Bloody Eighth” because of its vicious contests. This is Brad Ellsworth’s district, so it will be an open seat race. The Dem and GOP primaries in this district still need to play out, so we’ll have to see how they transpire. State Rep. Trent Van Haaften is the likely Dem nominee.

Even if it isn’t the endgame, reconciliation is still a major piece of this puzzle, because House Democrats are factoring it into their vote.  If reconciliation looks like a non-starter, then the House Democrats are not likely to pass this monster.  If 50 Democrats come out in support of the bill “fixes,” then the tide turns and Pelosi will be able to marshal the troops.

That’s why this whip-count from OpenLeft is worrisome.

The Democrats are close.  We must keep a keen eye on Harry Reid and the reconciliation negotiations.  Keep pressuring your Senators to come out against the reconciliation process.  Public opposition by Democrat Senators will deter Democrat House members from voting yes.

Multiple sources are reporting/hinting that Pence is beginning to test the waters for a Senate bid.  According to this Politico article, Rep. Mike Pence is now seriously considering a run against Evan Bayh in 2010.  Hotline also has this article reporting the same thing, and that Pence will meet with NRSC staff soon.  Last night on Hardball, Pence name was also floated as a possible challenger to Bayh.

As a Hoosier myself, I’ve grown increasingly frustrated at the field of candidates the GOP has running for Senate in Indiana right now, especially given the conservative political environment and the particular vulnerability of Bayh this cycle.  Mike Pence is probably the only Republican in Indiana that would instantly make this race a toss-up, and he’s the only one who has the national fundraising capacity to challenge Bayh’s $13 million war-chest.  By the fall, I strongly believe he would be the favorite in this race.

I’ve wrote a diary here about this race a few weeks ago, if you would like more background.

Run, Mike!  Run!

The prospect of Scott Brown winning in Massachusetts on Tuesday is simply mind-boggling.  I mean… Massachusetts! Teddy’s seat! The Irony-of-All-Ironies may very well occur a few days from now.  The most glorious display of cosmic justice evah might play out right before our eyes.  If Brown wins, you will tell your children and grandchildren where you were the day the Republic was saved from tyranny.

For this reason, I have decided (personally) to absolve Scott Brown of any RINO-ish votes he may have to make in the future (assuming he wins), in order to keep peace with his voters.  In my view, this one vote to stop healthcare will forever clear his slate.  Even if he becomes worse than Olympia Snowe down the road, I will always look back at what he did to stop Obamacare and I will withhold my judgment.  As far as I’m concerned, we will be square.

Mr. Brown, I wish you all the best next Tuesday.  Out of 300 million people, fate may have destined you to save the Republic.  That is an enormous responsibility, but an easy task.  It only takes one vote.  If you hold true, history will rank you among the great New Englanders who stood fast against tyranny.

Godspeed.

Think back, if you will, to December.  There were any number of procedural moves that the Senate GOP could have employed to delay the vote on healthcare until January (roll call votes, bill readings, unanimous consent objections, etc).  As history will forever record, Mitch McConnell not only rejected that strategy, he silenced those Republicans (Coburn, DeMint) who wanted to fight.  He had the ability to delay the healthcare vote, and chose to play nice instead.

The terrible consequences of McConnell’s decision could become even clearer next Tuesday.  If Scott Brown makes history and win’s the people’s (not Teddy’s) Senate seat, the Democratic Machine will assuredly delay the certification process to keep him off the Senate floor during the final vote on healthcare.

Do a little deductive reasoning with me.  If McConnell had delayed the healthcare vote last December, the Senate would still be working on their bill.  Nancy, Harry, and Barry would not be crafting the final language behind closed doors (as they are right now), because the Senate would still need to pass their version.  I could be wrong, but it stands to reason that a Scott Brown win under those circumstances would, most likely, have meant certain death for the healthcare bill.  A delay in the vote last December would have given Brown plenty of time to be certified and sworn-in before the final vote.  Instead, the House and Senate are busy working on the final language, and time is running out to stop them.

If the Minority Leader had done his job in December, a Scott Brown win would probably have given us a greater opportunity to kill the healthcare bill.  As it stands now, even with Brown victory, the Democrats seem ready and willing to pass healthcare by whatever means.

The folly of McConnell’s decision to bend over and grab his ankles is now clear.  The heat should be turned way, way up on the Minority Leader if Scott Brown wins and the Democrats still manage to find a way to pass healthcare.

I say all of this to prove a point, though.

Mike Pence has a unique opportunity to elevate his national profile and, simultaneously, to further the conservative agenda.  The 2010 Senate race in Indiana is that opportunity.

The current political environment in America is anti-incumbent and very sympathetic to conservatives’ message.  Indiana is no different.  While the Hoosier State went narrowly for Obama in 2008 (the first time in 44 years that a Democrat presidential candidate has won Indiana), he will not take it in 2012.  In 2006, Democrats won 3 congressional seats from Republicans, taking the State’s delegation from a 7-2 GOP advantage to a 5-4 Democrat edge.  It is likely that Republicans will take back some of these seats in 2010.  The Republicans are also likely to take back the Indiana House of Representatives next November, giving the GOP total control of State government once again.

Basically, Indiana is ripe for the picking, if conservatives want it, and that includes Evan Bayh’s Senate seat. As it stands today, though, Bayh is likely to be re-elected to the Senate.  Why, you ask?

The Bayh family is a strong institution in Indiana.  Much like the Carnahans in Missouri or the Cuomos in New York, the Bayhs have been involved in almost every level of State government.  Evan’s father, Birch Bayh, was a State legislator in the 1950s and a United States Senator from 1963-1981.  Evan himself was Secretary of State and Governor for many years.  In 1992, 1998, and 2004, Evan was elected statewide with more than 60 percent of the vote.  His telegenic face and conservative image has made him very popular in Indiana.  Evan also has nearly $13 million in the bank, which is probably the biggest obstacle to a Republican victory.

There are several Republicans already vying for this Senate seat, including businessmen Richard Beheney and Don Bates.  State Senator Marlin Stutzman is also in the race, and former Congressman John Hostettler announced his candidacy in December.  While all of these men have conservative credentials, none of them have the name recognition or fundraising capacity that Mike Pence does.

If Mike Pence got into this race, he would instantly make it competitive.  Major polling firms would begin surveying Indiana, and they would find a very close contest.  Political analysts would move the race from “safe Democrat” to “toss up.”  Evan Bayh would get very nervous and would begin voting against Harry Reid every chance could.

Many in Indiana believe that Mike Pence has his eyes set on higher office, either succeeding Mitch Daniels in 2012 or perhaps even Barack Obama.  Others say he wants to stay in the House so he can become Speaker some day.  I would argue that if Pence wants to run for higher office someday, then it is in his best interest to run for Senate right now.  If he wins the Senate seat, then he will instantly become a contender for President, in 2012 and beyond.  If he loses, then he becomes a strong favorite for Governor in 2012.  Both offices would be major stepping stones to the White House.  Bill Kristol said as much in his Weekly Standard blog post, “Draft Pence!”.

The bottom line is, if Mike Pence does not jump into this race, it is likely that Evan Bayh will win.  Bayh won’t win with 60+ percent of the vote, as he has for many years, but he will win nonetheless.  No offense to the other candidates, but they probably do not have what it takes to beat Bayh.  I may be wrong.  Maybe the conservative wave this November will be so strong that even Evan Bayh cannot be spared.  I hope so, but I doubt it.

Mike Pence’s conservative message will resonate well in Indiana.  If he jumped into the race, Pence would be able to fundraise nationally and take that message around the State.  Given Bayh’s cash advantage, Pence is our best shot to bring big money into the race.

2010 is probably the best chance we’ll ever have to take out Evan Bayh.  If we can’t beat him in this environment, then we never will.

Congressman Pence:  Run for Senate against Evan Bayh.

As we all know, in just three years time, the Republicans have lost 15 Senate seats.  Fifteen.  After such a devastating loss, any rational person would think that it’s time to change coaches.  Whether Mr. McConnell is directly responsible for all the GOP’s ills is not the point.  He is the leader.  That means he is accountable for the good and the bad.  He gets the blame and the credit, regardless of the cause.

As if earning the weakest possible minority weren’t enough, Senator McConnell has now lost the healthcare debate.  From the outset, the odds were against us.  However, given the disunity in the Democratic caucus, an opportunity presented itself to complicate Senate procedure enough to tip this debate fully into 2010–an election year.  Throughout this process, Mr. McConnell failed to utilize a single procedural tool at his disposal.  That is unacceptable.

The healthcare debate is the key issue that divides our two sides.  Nearly every other issue ties back to it somehow.  We have always feared that a day would come when the Democrats finally hit the button for universal healthcare.  Perhaps we thought (naively) that that day would never arrive.  Well, it has, and our Senate leader was nowhere to be found when delaying tactics were desperately needed.  If he won’t fight for keeps in the most epic battle of our time, when will he?

It is time to hit the refresh button on the Senate GOP leadership.  I believe Mitch McConnell stands indicted as a failed leader.  He has failed us electorally, and now he has failed to stop the Democrats from achieving eternal power through this healthcare bill.  I urge conservatives everywhere to start demanding that a new Republican leader be elected in the Senate.  If Mitch McConnell doesn’t have the decency to step aside himself, then the issue must be forced.  What should have been done after the 2008 election must be done now.

We are about to lose everything.  There must be accountability.

You may remember Joe Donnelly as the squish who beat Rep. Chris Chocola in the 2006 Democratic Sweep.  (Chris is now the president of the Club for Growth.)  In fact, 2006 was a particularly horrid year for Indiana Republicans.  Going into election night, Indiana had a 7-2 GOP advantage in its congressional delegation.  By the end of the night, the Democrats had won 3 seats and held a 5-4 advantage, which it still has to this day.

Since 2006, Joe Donnelly has played the moderate role well.  In 2007, Congressional Quarterly rated him among the “ten most independent Democrats in Congress.”  The American Conservative Union gave him a 44 rating for the same year.  Joe often trumpets his moderate-conservative image within the district, and, indeed, he does often find himself at odds with Nancy Pelosi, the Cap and Trade bill being a recent example.  He has a pro-life voting record, and he is one of the better Democrats on the immigration issue (NumbersUSA gives him an “A” grade).  But when it comes to spending issues, Donnelly has proven to be a true porker, earning just a 7 percent rating from the Club for Growth in 2008.  He also voted in favor of the stimulus bill last spring.

So, why is this race significant?  Because Indiana’s 2nd District is ripe for picking. 

The 2nd District is exactly the kind of district that the GOP has been losing for the past couple of cycles.  It is a mix of urban, suburban, and rural.  It has a strong base of middle class, blue collar voters that have been hit particularly hard in this recession.  The 2nd District went for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, but flipped to Barack Obama in 2008 (The victor won roughly 55 percent of the vote each time).  It is currently rated as R+2.  The 2nd District is a case-book swing district, and it is one that the GOP needs to win back if it is going to have new majority.

Think of Jackie Walorski as Indiana’s version of Michele Bachmann.  She has earned the nickname “Wacky Jackie” from local liberals, because she irritates them so much.  And why not?  Jackie is a passionate social and fiscal conservative.  Over the summer, she travelled the State campaigning against socialized healthcare, and even travelled to D.C. to personally pressure Joe Donnelly.  She is a leading defender of the 2nd Amendment, an advocate of energy exploration, and is strongly pro-life.  She fits the district well, with her Hoosier folksiness, her practical approach to solving problems, her strong work ethic, and her excellent communication skills.  A visible politician in the South Bend media market, Walorski already has broad name-recognition in the 2nd District.  Walorski is also a proven fundraiser, which, I assume, is one of the reasons the NRCC has pursued her so heavily.

IN-2 will be tough for both candidates, and I think the national dynamics will make it close.  A pro-life Democrat fits nicely into the mainstream of this district, so Joe Donnelly is well-liked personally.  That said, he is not going to win 67 percent of the vote again, like he did in 2008.  It appears 2010 is shaping up to be a repeat of 2006, only in the reverse, and Donnelly knows it.  There is just as much anxiety in Indiana as there is elsewhere, and that will bear fruit come next November. 

Jackie Walorski is probably the only conservative in northern Indiana with enough name recognition and support to win (with the exception of Lou Holtz, perhaps).  She will be a strong challenger.  For that reason, conservatives should watch IN-2 closely.  In 2006, it was a bellwether for the Democratic Sweep.  In 2010, it could prove to be the same, only for the Republicans.  If she decides to officially jump in the race (and I assume she will), Walorski is just the kind of conservative candidate that RedState should get excited about. 

Here is a video of her speaking at a rally against President Obama during his visit to Wakarusa (Elkhart County, IN) in August: