Tonight’s Fox News Republican presidential candidate debate, the first held in Iowa, comes at a critical time in the race, as many of the announced candidates are facing existential questions, divergent strategic paths, challenging fundraising efforts, and high political stakes, and at least one likely major entrant appears ready to announce.

The pressure has been building in the Republican primary since the last debate on CNN in New Hampshire nearly two months ago.

Tonight, each candidate has their own opportunity to seize (in order of the stakes):

• Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN): The narrative around Pawlenty presently is that he could be out after Ames with a poor showing.  His own “Minnesota nice” persona was on display at the last debate when he showed weak instincts on Romney and health care.  Tonight he’ll be given ample opportunity to criticize Romney directly, on the stage near him.  Will he do it?  Will it seem sincere?  Will he seem desperate?  More immediately, Pawlenty has Bachmann as his primary threat in Iowa.  Tonight he needs to create contrasts with her in a way that is not so harsh that it turns off female primary voters.

• Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN): Iowa frontrunner Bachmann is on the cover of the most recent Newsweek, but has been under attack on a range of issues since entering the race.  She clearly has significant base support and performed very well at the last debate.  Will she be substantive tonight?  Will she have to answer for some past questionable statements?  How does she respond to attacks, made most effectively by Pawlenty to date, on have a “nonexistent” record in Congress?  Can she effectively explain how she could oppose ANY effort to raise the debt limit?

• Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA): After temporarily entering the “Mittness Protection Plan,” as Politico coined it, Romney is re-emerging.  He will likely be taking the most rhetorical fire tonight as currently he is the frontrunner and is not personally well liked by the rest of the field.  He will have to explain why he was so quiet during the debt deal, as well as be prepared to again differentiate between Obamacare and Romneycare.  His presence in the last televised debate was the most presidential, but he was not under attack.  Will his steadiness and stature be different tonight under withering attack?

• Businessman Herman Cain: Cain was the flavor of the month early in the race, attracting over 12,000 people to his announcement in Atlanta May 21.  Since then, Bachmann stole all the oxygen from him and, I suspect, his fundraising has stalled just as quickly as his media attention has.  Tonight, he needs a strong performance, where he clearly addresses the weak economy and debt crisis, and where he does not create new controversies, as he did on Muslims in his cabinet at the last debate.  If Bachmann falters, Cain could benefit.

• Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA): Santorum believed he could ride social conservatives to an Iowa Caucus win and then potentially the nomination.  The dream has died, primarily because of other stronger candidates who have entered.  Santorum has been the most direct in attacking other candidates and tonight he will bring the fire power, as he has reached a desperate stage in his campaign.

• Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): Paul could potentially win the Ames Straw Poll, giving him a major boost of media attention.  He will need to explain what he would do to fix the debt crisis, specifically, and be careful not to create a controversial moment that prevents him from a strong Ames showing.

• Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA): Gingrich cannot win the nomination and by now even he knows that.  For him, tonight’s debate presents an opportunity to make serious points and then be forgotten again.

• Former Ambassador and Governor Jon Huntsman (R-UT): Tonight is Huntsman’s first debate performance and he has said he will not compete in the Iowa Caucuses.  His campaign has not gained traction nationally or in the early states, and they recently had two high profile departures, one of which was painstakingly reported by Politico.  Tonight he must attack Romney directly, appear presidential and position himself as a conservative, to gain any sense of positive momentum.

The candidate casting the widest shadow on the field is Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), who will likely be mentioned tonight, either by the questioners or by the candidates, and who will take major steps toward an announcement this weekend when he visits the three early states.

The next debate, occurring the second week of September, will include Perry, and likely not include several of tonight’s participants.

Matt Mackowiak is a Washington and Austin-based Republican consultant and president of Potomac Strategy Group, LLC. He has been an adviser to two U.S. senators and one governor, and has worked on two winning campaigns.

I believe America is an exceptional nation, a beacon of hope and freedom for the rest of the world.

I believe the men and women who have served or are serving in our Armed Forces have preserved freedom for the rest of us, and we must always ensure they and their families are cared for. We will always be indebted to our military men and women for their devotion and sacrifice on behalf of our nation.

I believe the American dream is available to every person who is willing to work for it.

I believe that only in America could a boy born to a modest family in the Texas Panhandle, begin working with his father at age nine, put himself through Texas A&M University, and through an excellent public education, be able to run successful American businesses.

Fundamentally, I believe in limited government, protecting our social values, and adherence to the Constitution.

I believe we are a nation founded on Christian principles and that we should not shy away from our foundational beliefs in God.

I believe in peace through strength, and that our nation has an unmatched history of spreading freedom and supporting democracy around the world.

I believe energy security is imperative, both for economic growth and for national security. I also believe that we must increase American energy production, increase nuclear energy use for electricity generation, encourage energy conservation, and expand the use of renewable energy resources as they are technologically ready and economically attractive.

I believe individuals spend their own money better than the government.

I believe low taxes and fair regulation of employers is the best way to grow the private sector economy.

I believe the best social program ever created is a private sector job – these jobs provide families with housing, food, and education, they grow the local tax base, they end reliance on government assistance, and they contribute to growing our nation’s economic opportunities.

I believe record deficits and an overwhelming national debt are a significant threat to our economy and to the futures of our children and grandchildren.

I believe Congress should pass a budget, every year, just as our families and businesses do. If Congress is unable, or unwilling, to pass budgets that are balanced, they should have their pay cut for not doing the job they were elected to do.

I believe that education is best handled at the local level, which is most accountable and closest to the people.

I believe in term limits because we must return to the Founding Fathers’ notion of citizens serving their constituents for a short time, then returning to live under the laws they wrote.

I believe every life is precious and has a soul that must be protected under the law.

I believe marriage is between one man and one woman.

I believe the Second Amendment is a fundamental right guaranteed to all Americans.

I believe we face greater challenges as a nation today than at any time in recent history, and we must act now to stop the damage that has been done. If we do this, we will be able to restore America’s promise, prosperity and security for future generations.

If you believe as I do, will you join our team?

I hope you will consider making a generous investment or joining our $17 for 17 campaign so I may fight for these beliefs in Congress.

With Great Respect,

Bill Flores

Conservatives have long knives out for Gov. Charlie Crist.

While the political establishment in Tallahassee and DC is fully supporting incumbent Crist for the Florida’s open U.S. Senate seat over upstart rising star Marco Rubio, the clear conservative choice is emerging.

Crist was recruited to run and immediately endorsed by the Senate Republican campaign committee, led by Texas Senator John Cornyn. Although this support smacks of party bosses discouraging competition, Cornyn promised on November 4 that his campaign committee would not spend one dollar in the Florida primary.

On paper, Crist is a strong candidate. He’s a legendary fundraiser, has statewide name identification, resources and gravitas – all major advantages. But upon inspection, Crist’s vulnerabilities come into focus.

Conservative fears about Crist were confirmed on February 10 when he skipped a Cabinet meeting to famously hug President Barack Obama at a Fort Myers rally for the federal stimulus legislation, saying, “We know that it’s important that we pass a stimulus package.” Appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on February 22, Crist said, “Certainly this stimulus package, about $12.2 billion to Florida, will help Florida an awful lot.” On November 5 on CNN, Crist incredulously claimed that he “never endorsed the stimulus.”

Meanwhile, Crist’s point-man on the stimulus, Don Winstead, painstakingly tried to convince Florida lawmakers that the 29,000 Florida jobs “saved or created” by the bill so far was actually 64,300, employing tortured logic and self-defining “spin-off jobs.”

Apart from the stimulus, Crist is moderate on other key conservative issues. After campaigning as a “Jeb Bush” Republican, he’s governed as a liberal by signing legislation to create a statewide cap and trade system in Florida, increasing taxes and fees on tobacco products, DMV services and court fees, only recently reversing his former opposition to offshore drilling, refusing to say that abortion should be illegal (he’s described himself as both “pro choice” and “pro life”), bucking Jeb Bush and supporting then-State Senator Kendrick Meek’s expensive mandate to reduce class sizes, supporting homosexual civil unions and backing Mel Martinez’s amnesty immigration bill. Crist even pushed to restore voting rights for some 750,000 ex-felons in Florida.

Consider this chilling example of selfishness and arrogance: Crist has selfishly injected himself into the politics of an independent regulatory agency, clumsily attempting to stack the deck to overturn a likely agency decision that he disagreed with. Crist chose to fire two sitting members of the Public Service Commission before they could rule on two rate proposals that would strengthen the state’s energy infrastructure, mostly for petty and political reasons. But the message was crystal clear to Florida government officials, even those at independent regulatory bodies. They have been put on notice that they must toe the line of the Governor or risk being professionally embarrassed, undermined or passed over.

Add to that the embarrassing revelation that Crist has set an extremely leisurely schedule since becoming Governor. The St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald recently reported that Crist takes about ten weeks off per year.

However, Crist is most vulnerable on Florida’s faltering economy, with an insurance crisis, 11% unemployment, and the highest foreclosures in the nation. As such, Crist’s public approval rating has fallen to 42 percent.

But the cause célèbre with conservatives is Crist’s vocal support of Obama’s stimulus bill. Reihan Salam writes in Forbes that by accepting all of the stimulus, “Crist has committed Florida to a fiscal nightmare, one that will lead to draconian tax hikes and spending cuts long after he makes a break for the U.S. Senate or finds some other comfortable sinecure thanks to the good graces of his many wealthy friends.” Imagine the irony that after signing into law $2 billion in new taxes and fees, Crist hosted a small business summit in Tallahassee last week.

The question is: why would Florida Republicans vote for someone who has supported anti-business policies and is blocking investment in energy infrastructure intended to prevent a utility collapse akin to California’s in the 1990s?

Floridians are beginning to realize that they have a real choice in the primary.

Marco Rubio, a 38 year old Catholic father of four whose parents fled Cuba in 1959, has generated significant excitement among the base as an “unapologetic conservative.” Articulate, energetic and good-looking, Rubio excites Republican voters. In recent weeks he’s stressed his conservative credentials on cable news and stated his opposition to a health care takeover and unrestrained government spending. National Review featured Rubio on its cover and he’s winning endorsements (former Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Jim DeMint and Sen. James Inhofe).

So where does the race stand?

Crist built a significant early lead of 30 points. Those polls have narrowed, and where voters know both candidates, Rubio and Crist are nearly tied with likely primary voters are trending toward Rubio. Momentum and excitement is with Rubio right now, as he overwhelmingly wins county straw polls and has significantly increased his fundraising.

The closed primary of Florida’s four million registered Republicans may result in turnout around 400,000 people.

As George Will wrote in a column supporting Rubio in the Washington Post, “Their primary will test whether the party has become so risk-averse that it flinches from interesting choices.”

Conservatives can send a message to Washington that they oppose backroom deals and to choose the best candidate.

In the Florida Senate primary, a clear choice is emerging and it will be a very unpleasant few months for Governor Charlie Crist.

Matt Mackowiak is an Austin and Washington, D.C.-based GOP political and communications consultant and founder of Potomac Strategy Group, LLC, and was a Senate Press Secretary from 2005-2009.