It’s coming. The tidal wave of anger that swept Republicans into power in 1994 looms on the horizon as Democrats announce their retirement one by one. In my own home district, Congressman Bart Gordon recently declared that he would not seek re-election. Gordon generally wins by wide margins, but in a district that favored McCain by 25-points over Obama, perhaps the Congressman saw the proverbial writing on the wall.
The Cook PVI rates TN-06 as R+13. Maybe that’s why no Dems have filed papers to replace Gordon.
It looks like the real fight will be in the Republican primary, where six challengers must fight it out for enough votes to make it to the general election: State Senator Diane Black, retired General Dave Evans, businessman Gary Mann, businessman Kerry Roberts, State Senator Jim Tracy, and former Rutherford County Republican Party Chair Lou Ann Zelenik.
Right off the bat, I don’t think Gary Mann or Dave Evans have a shot. With all due respect to both candidates, Evans has been in the race since last February and has raised pennies to the dollars that the other candidates have raised, and for whatever reason, Gary Mann’s race was over before it started. (No pun intended: Mann used to be active in the racing community.)
By eliminating those two candidates, voters must decide between the establishment choices (Black and Tracy) and the grassroots candidates (Roberts and Zelenik).
Voters aren’t particularly happy with “the establishment” these days. Despite their name recognition and fundraising ability, it will be tough for Senators Black and Tracy to connect with the grassroots, which is particularly important, given that there are two vocal tea party groups in the district: the Middle Tennessee Tea Party and Sumner United for Responsible Government.
Not only that, but both Senators voted for a $1 billion budget increase last year, a message which will sour voters who understand that wreckless spending got us where we are today. Senator Black sponsored legislation that paves the way for toll road construction in Tennessee; something she calls “alternative road construction.” Mind you, Tennessee instituted a pay-as-you-go system for road construction in the mid-1920s.
Grassroots and tea party types - those who edged Doug Hoffman toward the finish line in NY-23 and those who called voters in Massachusetts and donated money to Scott Brown - have only two options.
Lou Ann Zelenik ran unsuccessfully in 2008 for State Representative. In what many called a dirty campaign, Zelenik auxilliaries personally attacked her Republican primary opponent, Joe Carr, who won the nomination and the general election. Shortly thereafter, she began building a tea party movement through the Rutherford County Republican Party. Early tea party protests in Murfreesboro were sponsored and organized by the local GOP, of which she was the Chair.
Kerry Roberts has been quietly meeting with voters since he announced his candidacy in December. He owns several bicycle shops in Nashville and lives in the northern part of the district. If he can prove himself a competitive fundraiser, then I think his message will resonate with the most number of voters. As Roberts says, people don’t want to send politicians to Washington to “solve” the problems that politicians created.
One thing voters know: TN-06 is on the front lines of the battle for the GOP to take back Congress.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Dan McLaughlin
Out of my district.
Steph C (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 11:05AM EST (link)Do you have a preference which of the last two? Roberts or Zelenik?
Roberts needs a website.
“[I]f the public are bound to yield obedience to laws to which they cannot give their approbation, they are slaves to those who make such laws and enforce them.” –Candidus in the Boston Gazette, 1772
Hillbilly Politics
He's got one.
Matthew Hurtt (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 11:07AM EST (link)My personal preference is Kerry Roberts. He’s working out the website issues, but his Twitter account is pretty active: http://www.twitter.com/kerryeroberts
“It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people’s minds.” – Samuel Adams
It does not say much.
Jim Tomasik (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 11:31AM EST (link)Maybe its a new site and he has not had time to spell out where he stands on things.
I wouldn't be so quick to count Dave Evans out.
janis (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 11:09AM EST (link)While it’s true that he has been in the race a lot longer than all the others and doesn’t have much money, he’s not looking to make a career out of politics and that’s a change from the others. Also, his campaign manager, Edward Phillips, was the campaign manager for Joe Carr, who, as you pointed out, beat Zelenik.
Dave Evans has been endorsed by a number of veterans’ groups, including Iraq War Veterans for Congress, and a couple of others. If voters are looking for an honest guy who understands the anger against incumbency and overspending, as well as security issues, and who is foursquare for families, traditional marriage, and pro-life, then Dave Evans is as good as it gets.
Good analysis.
NightTwister (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 12:26PM EST (link)Glad to see these diaries getting attention.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
Republicans should win this one
gemimail Monday, January 25th at 2:10PM EST (link)We rate this district as having a 73.2% chance of going Republican at http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144. While no Democrats have announced yet for the race, seven are said to be considering it: Ashe, Bragg, Hargrove, Hood, Pratt, Syler and Womack. What is your opinion on the chances for any of these guys of offering real competition?
I have gotten to know Lou Ann Zelnik
toni100 (Diary) Monday, January 25th at 8:26PM EST (link)and she is a tireless campaigner in the likes of Michelle Bachmann. Lou Ann is self made in the construction business with an engineering degree from Vanderbilt. She was extremely successful in her construction business and that hard work paid off for her. In personal talks with Lou Ann I found her to be conservative through and through. I’m a right winger and have found her to be solid. There’s been a whisper campaign going around with the Republican power brokers here in Middle TN saying Lou Ann is ‘crazy’ but the boys on the ‘Hill’ seem to use that descriptor for most of the Republican female legislators. I was extremely disappointed to learn that my 2 state legislators had been in on the campaign and a friend gave them a stern word to knock it off. Lou Ann has been dominating in her fund raising and working her butt off since last spring before the bottom fell out for Bart Gordon which is when all the other contenders joined the field. Lou Ann was at every tea party rally in the area, has been to about every county function that I’ve heard about and this has been going on since last February. As for Kerry Roberts, never seen him except at one Center Right Coalition meeting. That’s it. Jim Tracy is just an opportunist who is milktoast. He’s bland and not that hard a worker in my opinion. He also campaigned last year with a Democrat—–not to be trusted. Diane Black leaves a bad taste in my mouth due to her drive to bring in toll roads to the state for a bridge in her district. She opened the door wide open for TDOT and the Dems to exploit the use of toll roads. Even though the bill passed was limited, the door is opened.
So, there’s my two cents.
http://www.bearcreekledger.com
Twitter – http://twitter.com/Toni100
Franklin,TN (Middle Tennessee)
Formerly a MN resident
Bart was on MMX FLEX list of 50 MUST GO in 2010
mmx_flex (Diary) Tuesday, January 26th at 10:51AM EST (link)It doesn’t take a lot of digging to find out that Bart is out of touch with his district. He voted for the failed stimulus (where are the jobs, Bart?) and cap&trade (do the good people of the TN-06 really want their electricity rates to “skyrocket?”) and his district actually gave McCain 62% of the vote.