The man is a true conservative superstar.  I understand he took a drubbing at the hands of Ted Strickland five years ago, but Blackwell wasn’t just fighting the biggest Democratic wave in twenty years, he was also fighting an internal party still run by insiders and supports of disgraced ex-Gov. Bob Taft.  I live in Virginia, but one of my cohorts in my local YR group worked in Ohio in 2006 and said that Blackwell was never the candidate any GOP insider wanted and he had crash his own party just to win the nomination.

But aside from electoral success – which includes three other statewide victories and serving in government at the federal level and even at the UN – Blackwell is a candidate that is right on the issues of the day and is really an unflappable conservative.  He’s run on those ideas when his own party didn’t want too and he ran on those ideas when the country and his state were furious with his party.  He proved in defeat that he wouldn’t pander or waiver to win.  He ran in 2006 on the issues and ideas that won in 2010 for so many others.

I like Josh Mandel, and even Blackwell expressed admiration for the young treasurer in David Cantanese’s post about this at Politico.  But, to me, Blackwell deserves a chance to become a conservative leader on the national stage while the wind is at our sails after so valiantly carrying our standard when the wind was against us.

Here is the PPP Poll.

(And yes, I know its a Democrat firm, but they were pretty dead-on in 2010)

Most of my blogging centers around Virginia, notably Northern Virginia where I live so I have a pretty good grasp of the potential candidates and what makes them tick.  There is a large field of potential candidates, and most of them are very good candidates.  I will try and present this as best as I can, but I do have my biases.  Something to remember when thinking about internal politics in the GOP – the “establishment” cannot always be defined as being squishy or moderate, as many are just as conservative as any tea party.  Its more about status and time-served in the party.  Its a strange world not as easily defined as other states with a more easier map to navigate.

The Front-Runner:  Former Gov. and Sen. George Allen

Allen is literally the godfather of the modern Republican Party in Virginia.  His election as governor 1993 was the epicenter of the the eventual takeover of the state by The GOP.  He was a wildly popular governor and helped recruit and nurture many young delegate and state senate candidates who have gone on to bigger and better things (most notably Gov. Bob McDonnell who came into the House of Delegates in 93, and Lt. Govenror Bill Bolling whom Allen helped recruit for the state senate in 1995).   Allen is beloved by many in the states most active circles.  He will have the name recognition, the money, and the institutional support of the GOP insiders.  Many have been toiling away in Republican politics since the 70s and 80s and Allen’s win still reverberates with them from 1993.

He, of course, comes with serious baggage.  While he was a wildly successful governor, his tenure in the Senate was defined mostly by a desire to run for president rather than anything substantial.  He loaded his reelection team with national Republicans like Mary Matalin and Ed Gillespie.  But then “maccaca” happened and Allen basically was branded as a racist, and in the toxic atmosphere of 2006, he lost a razor-thin election to Sen. Jim Webb.  But “macacca” exposed something else about Allen.  He remains a man enamored with a Virginia that really doesn’t exist anymore.  He embraced a cowboy image, with a chaw in his mouth and boots on his feet, he speaks with heavy football analogies that border on silly sometimes, and he’s not really someone who’s new to the state understands.  Virginia Republicans won in 2009 by winning the Northern Virginia (NOVA)-Richmond-Hampton Roads axis.  All three statewide candidates represented these areas with McDonnell from Hampton Roads, Bolling from Richmond, and Ken Cuccinelli from Northern Virginia.  While many activists love and respect Allen, these areas have a high population turnover rate and Allen might have a hard time connecting with these voters.  There is a serious strain in the commonwealth that a conservative with the right message could use to beat Allen.  He also represents the Republican era of 2000-2006 that has been damned by Tea Party and newer conservative activists.  I am against Allen in this election . . . I feel his time has past and there are more proven conservative candidates without his substantial baggage.

The Iconoclast:  Delegate Bob Marshall

Bob Marshall has carved out his own world in his tiny corner of Prince William County in Northern Virginia that he has represented in the House of Delegates since 1993.  He’s an interesting guy with an interesting story.  An arch social conservative, his sister is a Hollywood actress.  For years, Marshall was considered something of a crack-pot, a one-man crank in the House of Delegates willing to say no on principle no matter who he upsets.  He’s equal parts Ron Paul and Pat Robertson.  He first entered statewide politics in 2006 when he co-sponsored and lead the fight for the Marshall-Newman Amendment that defined marriage in Virginia as between a man and a women.  In 2007, when the GOP was desperate for a victory on transportation passed a bill that created unelected regional commissions with the power to tax.  It was held by many GOP leaders as a breakthrough that would allow Republicans to run on.  It also contained traffic abuser fees that went into the thousands of dollars for basic traffic offenses.  Marshall immediatly sued, arguing it was unconstitutional.  The state supreme court agreed with Marshall and invalidated the law.  In 2008, upset that Jim GIlmore wasn’t suffeciently pro-life (he was okay with 1st trimester abortion), he made a quixotic run for the US Senate, and he almost pulled off the upset.  Since then, he has taken on Gov. McDonnell for borrowing against the state pension fund and the use of fees to balance the budget.  He is working on another amendment that would ban the practice of insert fees to as shadow tax increases.  He sponsored Virginia’s law that outlawed a health care mandate, the law that is the basis of Ken Cuccinelli’s lawsuit against Obamacare.  He’s almost been the catalyst for many of Cuccinelli’s decisions, being the member that requests such papers.  He might be the most conservative member of the House of Delegates, a person who is loved by pro-lifers, home school advocates powerful within the party, limited government interests, Tea Partiers, and Campaign for Liberty types.  Yet he is constantly endorsed by the Sierra Club for his anti-developer stances in his district.  He has a compelling life-story with some serious highes and serious lows (his son died in a car accident).  He’s a serious man who is driven strictly by a strict constructionist view of the Constitution, and he doesn’t care which party is in his way when he thins he is right.

But he’s not without his flaws.  Marshall can be awkward in public, he’s not a polished orator nor is does he seem comfortable with the attention on him  Hidden away nicely in the House of Delegates, Marshall has made his mark mostly behind the bigger names like Cuccinelli and others.  In his race against Jim Gilmore in 2008, he wasn’t as good of a glad-hander.  Marshall wants to talk about the things he feels are important, and he lacks the back-slapping nature of more polished pols.  He also is notorious for not being able to raise money.  He could have taken Gilmore at the 2008 convention had he raised some serious money and built an organization to get the folks there.  He is also a divisive social conservative who is outspoken in his views.  He made news last year by seeming to insinuate that disable kids were God’s punishment for abortion.  Its NOT what he was saying, but the left and the media grabbed ahold of it (his point was that abortion can have lasting effects that can hurt future pregnancies).  He has a bit of a gadfly reputation – part brilliant constitutional thinking, party crazy uncle at Christmas.  Marshall is a man I highly respect, and think he would be one of the most conservative senators if elected, but he needs to prove he can put together the political nuts and bolts the match his admirable principles.

The Up-Start:  Prince William County Chairman Corey Stewart

Stewart is a new face and rising star in the party.  He runs Prince William County in Northern Virginia that has a population close to 400,000 and growing.  He was a local supervisor before becoming chairman.  His signature issue has been illegal immigration.  PWC had a serious problem and Stewart enacted a program called the Rule of Law Resolution that made it mandatory that local police check the immigration status of people arrested and turn them over to ICE.  Local Democrats, liberals, and some squishy Republicans worried that Prince William would become a county of hate.  Stewart argue that the big crime and gang problem necessitated this, and it has worked.  Crime is down and Stewart was overwhelmingly reelected as Chairman in 2007.  Stewart has proven he can take the heat, as the Washington Post has continually lambasted him, even comparing him to a third-world dictator.  He is young and very charismatic.  He is also willing to throw some elbows, having already gone on local television calling Allen a “mediocre senator.”  In 2008 Stewart jumped into what was an open lieutenant governor’s race, but dropped out when incumbent Bill Bolling announced he would run for reelection in 2009 instead of challenging then AG McDonnell for the nomination.  Since then, Stewart has initiated what he calls the Rule of Law Campaign, a statewide drive to enact Arizona’s immigration law in Virginia.  Its also Stewart’s vehicle to go around the commonwealth and spreading his name around.  It has gotten him on Fox News and CNN, among other national outlets.  He also made local news by leading an effort on the Board of Supervisors to refuse Obama stimulus money to hire teachers, because the funds were one-time only and would force the county to pay for it in the following years.  His past background is as an international trade lawyer with a degree from Georgetown in foreign service.

Stewart best resembles many of the young Tea Party candidates like Mike Lee and Marco Rubio that took down incumbent or establishment backed candidates.  It remains to be seen if he can swim in these waters, having never experienced this kind of campaign and media scrutiny before.  Will he be a Lee or Rubio and thrive, or will he be a Buck or Miller and have his focus blurred by the bright lights of the big leagues.  He’s an untested talent looking to leapfrog over a whole lot of people that might not like it.  He also might be chewing from the same steak as Marshall, as both are from Prince William County and both are looking to win with conservatives.  But Stewart is looking to run as the next generation, as a Cuccinelli-style new conservative with no ties to the Big Government Bush Republicanism of the 2000s.  He’s already talking about Allen’s time having passed, and is positioning himself not only as more conservative, but as a different generation looking to win on the backs of not only the Tea Party but new conservatives who look to folks like Ken Cuccinelli as their hero.

The Tea Partier:  Jamie Radtke

Putting a potential wrench in the plans of both Marshall and Stewart is the rumors floating around that Jamie Radtke will run for the Senate.  Radtke is the outgoing chairwomen of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots, and effective organization out of Richmond that put together a fall convention that had almost 3,000 people show up.  She cut her teeth in the 1990s serving on the Senate Foreign Relations staff under Jesse Helms and has worked in conservative grassroots politics for years.  She was thought to run for the state senate this year, but it seems her focus has shifted.

The problem is I’m not sure how successful the Tea Party was in Virginia.  Of the four contested races by Republican challengers, only Keith Fimian in the 11th won with Tea Party support.  In the 5th and 2nd, the couldn’t get together on a single candidate and allowed establishment-backed candidates Robert Hurt and Scott Rigell to win the nominations.  Part of the problem also is that Virginia’s state party has been historically very conservative, so its a state party that really is fertile for a Tea Party revolt across the state.  The Tea Party Patriots flexed some muscle with their convention, but I’m not sure how much that will account for electoral success in the state.

The Dark-Horse:  Bert Mizusawa

Mizusawa ran in the crowded 2nd district primary, losing to Scott Rigell.  But Mizusawa came out of nowhere and his personal story and campaign enamored him to many voters, even those who didn’t vote for him.  He’s currently a Brigadier General in the Army Reserves, owns a law degree from Harvard, and was a small business owner.  He does not have any political elections other than the 2nd district primary, but has a sterling military record and a good disposition that could create a very compelling candidate.  He’s a serious man who has served for years and earned awards including the bronze star, silver star, and legion of merit.  He also served as a congressional staffer in the 1990s.  I don’t know much else about Mizusawa because he’s from Virginia Beach and that’s not an area I know as well.  But he is a serious candidate with an impressive background of service to his country and could look very attractive if Republicans get tired of professional politicians attacking each other.

So hopefully this helps RedState World in looking at the upcoming Virginia race to either defeat or replace Jim Webb.  I am a Corey Stewart man right now, just for full disclosure though Bob Marshall is someone I have immense respect for.

So I’m playing a bit of fantasy football with this right now, but here’s a look at some conservative candidates I’m hoping jump in and bring the Senate not just to the GOP, but to a constitutional conservaive majority.  And since I’m not an expert on every state, how about some help?

California:  Dianne Feinstein – Chuck DeVore.  If we are going to go out, might as well go out on our sheild.

Deleware:  Tom Carper – UNKOWN.  Heard rumors of health problems, maybe this opens up.  I doubt O’Donnell can make another run, but perhaps congressional candidate Urquardt?

Florida:  Bill Nelson – Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll.  Have heard nothing but amazing things about her.  She’s young, African-American, and appears to be quite conservative.  Was apparently on Charlie Crist’s short list for Senate.  Look for botb LeMeuix and perhaps Rep. Buchanan to jump in?  But Carroll, like Rubio before her, could be a rock star and prove that conservatism knows no color.

Hawaii:  Daniel Akaka – Gov. Linda Lingle.  While she’s no right-winger, Gov. Lingle was elected overwhelmingly to two terms as governor in the bluest of states.  Akaka is an odious senator, pushing essentially racial segregation for natie Hawaians.  But this could be one of those races where Lingle could get side-swiped by an unkown conservative.  It feels like it.  Watch for Akaka to perhaps retire.

Maryland:  Ben Cardin – UNKOWN.  I live in the DC suburbs but I can’t think of anyone who would want to take on Cardin and probably lose.  Maybe EJ Pipkin will be back for another run, maybe Ehrlich’s running-mate Mary Kane?

Michigan:  Debbie Stabenow – Rep. Candice Miller.  I like her a lot, always have.

Minnesota:  Amy Klobucher - State Rep. Tom Emmer.  I have a feeling the DFL machine will sinch the gov’s race for Dayton, but Emmer is a great conservative and I hope he stays with it.  Its tempting to think Michele Bachmann, but I’m not sure how she would play statewide.  Its not her conservatism, so much as perhaps her style.

Missouri:  Claire McCaskill – Sarah Steelman.  She took a pass last time to let Roy Blunt win the day, so I think its her time.  I love Jim Talent, but rematches historically don’t go well.  Steelman is fresh and conservative. 

Montana:  Jon Tester- UNKOWN.  I have no pulse on Montana GOP politics.  I’d be interesting if Marc Rocciot got in, but I doubt it.  Steve Daines and Neil Livinington are the names I hear but I know nothing abouth either one.

Nebraska:  Ben Nelson - Jon Bruning.  I like what I’ve seen from him, especially that he’s part of the suit to overthrow Obamacare.

New jersey:  Bob Menendez - State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr.  Thought he was a great candidate last time, and with Christie’s momentum in the state he could do some things.

New Mexico:  Jeff Bingaman - Lt. Gov. John Sanchez.  Sanchez as ran twice now statewide and is 1-1.  New Mexico Republicans look ressurgent in 2010 and the state is always in plan in a presidential year.  Sanchez is young and hispanic, and could pull off the upset.  Wouldn’t be suprised if Bingaman retires as well.

New York:  Kirsten Gillibrand – Rep. Chris Lee.  Not sure if he’s up for it, but I think Gillibrand is beatable running on her own against a well-funded opponent.  Lee has a good congressional record.

North Dakota:  Ken Conrad – Unkown.  with Hoeven and Berg’s wins, he has to see the writing on the wall.  I just don’t know who has the marker.

Ohio:  Sherrod Brown – Ken Blackwell.  Would love to see Blackwell get a fair shot in a better climate at a real Senate seat.  Like Carroll in Florida, he would I think get enthusiastic support across conservative circles, and he has the experience to run.

Pennsylvania:  Bob Casey – Tom Ridge.  It might be a hard sell to some conservatives, and despite Toomey’s win the actual conservative bench in Pennsylvania isn’t that deep.  Ridge is a deeply respected figure in the state and I think would run away with it against Casey.  But again, he would probably get hit with a primary.  Then again, so did Corbett.

Rhode Island:  Sheldon Whitehouse – John Robitaille.  Let it be know, if the NGA spent some money in RI Robitaille might have pulled the upset once Caprio crumbled.  Lets see what he can do with full support of the party.

Virginia:  Jim Webb – Corey Stewart.  Many of you might not know Corey, but I’ve met him and know folks on his staff.  He’s an up-and-coming conservative leader who has cut taxes and now is leading a statewide initiative to fight illegal immigration call the Rule of Law Campaign.  More famous names are out there, but Stewart is the real deal and someone you all need to google and check out.  Its also likely that Webb will retire and Tim Kaine will run.

Washington:  Maria Cantwell – Cathy McMorris Rogers.  PLEASE no more Dino Rossi.  Rep. Rogers is a good conservative and I think would be a terrific candidate.

West Virginia:  Joe Manchin – UNKOWN.  Unless he screws the pooch and Obama makes him vote for something bad, I think Manchin is tough to beat.

Wisconsin:  Herb Kohl – Paul Ryan.  Another retirement watch, but after seeing Walker and Johnson win, Sen. Kohl can’t be pleased and might be content to spend the rest of his days watching his Bucks play.  Expect Feingold to run again if Herb retires.

Republicans worth challenging – Luger by Marlin Stutzman, Carker by Marsha Blackburn, KBH by Michael Williams, Hatch by Jason Chavitz.  I think we should leave Brown and Snowe alone, based on the nature of their states.  The only GOP retirement watch would be Jon Kyl – and I would suspect a very ambitious Ben Quayle might jump.

Thoughts?

Its a harder question than it seems.  Tancredo could have gotten into the GOP primary and didn’t, and Dan Maes won it fair and square.  And I don’t like the way Tancredo sort of sat outside and just made threats.  Us conservatives have been scornful of losing candidates who wont’ step aside, and Tancredo didn’t even get into the primary himself.

But there are other forces at work here in Colorado.  The choices in the GOP primary of governor were like those of a death row inmate being asked what way they want to die.  Both candidates are fatally flawed, but especially McInnis.  There are so many important races in Colorado (Buck, Frazier, Gardner) that chaos in this races does nothing but hurts.  Tancredo has proven to be a legitimate candidate who has flown past Maes in the polls and, according to Rasmussen, is only 8 points behind Hickenlooper.

But most of all, Tancredo is a conservative.  And while Maes is as well, he’s clearly a fatally flawed candidate who won a fatally flawed primary.  And its clear there is a right tide rising in Colorado up and down the ballot, I think we need to make the hard choice now and support Tom Tancredo for governor to win a race we can still actually win.

Thoughts?

A new batch of polls have come out regarding the congressional races in Virginia from ccAdvertising that show Republicans leading in three of the four major races:  VA-2, VA-5, and VA-11; as well as coming close in VA-9.

I want to focus on the 11th because that’s my home area, Northern Virginia.  Conventional wisdom is that this district has gone Democrat, and that seemed to be the case from 2001-2008, just like the rest of Virginia.  But the district was draw for former Rep. Tom Davis and George W. Bush won the 11th in both 2000 and 2004.  The district is compose of central, western, and southern Fairfax County as well as the western parts of Prince William County.  But after 2006 (Davis’s last reelection), the district went decidedly blue in state offices as well in local elections to the State Senate and House of Delegates.  In 2008, Fairfax County Board Chairman and local Democratic mainstay Gerry Connolly won big over political novice, businessman Keith Fimian.

Just one year later, however, Fairfax swung back to the Republicans.  Bob McDonnell won the 11th in his gubernatorial race, and won Fairfax County overall.  We picked up several delegate districts that we lost in 2005 and 2007, as well.

Fimain had to get past count supervisor Pat Herrity, son of a local icon, in the congressional primary and did so largely on the backs of new, energized, angry, grassroots voters and the local tea party.  But the question remained, could he come back from a ten point loss just two years earlier to win?  It seems the answer is "yes . . . almost."  Keith is inching every-so-close and I call all here in RedState Nation to once again rise up and help a true conservative to win this seat that a year ago nobody thought was within reach.  Here is the poll results:

• Fimain: 42
• Connolly:  37
• Undecided:  21

The poll tells me two things . . . 1)  Connolly is in serious trouble, and 2) Fimian still has some work to do to get the victory here.  Connolly has held office in Fairfax County since 1995 and is a well-known quantity.  He isn’t the most popular guy, even among Democrats because he’s basically a bully.  But he’s a tireless campaigner who’s not afraid to get dirty, can raise tons of money, and most of all he wins.  Its not good that a month before an election, someone with Connolly’s deep local roots has so many people undecided.  But it also means Fimian hasn’t totally convinced them that he’s the man.

But for the first time in his career, Connolly hasn’t had control of his electoral fate.  The Fairfax County Board is only a ten-member body with one at-large elected chairman.  He could push and pull as he wanted and impose his will.  He can’t in Congress.  Connolly has struggled to come to terms with the Obama-Pelosi agenda famously complaining about "spilling blood" for Obama and then saying he opposed the Bush tax cuts on principle but would vote for their extension.  The district was thought to be Democratic because of all the federal workers in the district and the relatively low unemployment in the district.  But he just seems to have lost something, like he’s not in control any more.  His shots on Fimian aren’t landing, and he’s flailing to the center claiming he’s an independent voice after spending the better part of 25 years as a Democratic insider both as a congressional staffer, a local government official, and a congressman.

He beat Fimian two years ago on social issues.  He lambasted Fimian for belonging to Opus Dei and claiming his pro-life stance was out of touch with Northern Virginia.  Fimian’s campaign was oftentimes off message and a mess.  Not this year.  A tough but resounding primary win got him into shape and helped him shape a general election message.  He’s a combination of Bob McDonnell and Ken Cuccinelli.  Fimian in his past life was the CEO of US Inspect, the home inspection company.  He talks nonstop about creating jobs by lowering taxes, getting government spending under control, and on his website he says "I will introduce legislation in Congress to repeal it." And this isn’t just a short-term conversion, throughout 2009 Fimian was still running and holding small town halls about Health Care, even leading a rally against it in front of Connolly’s local office.  At events I’ve attended Fimian often describes that he will be a bull in a china shop in Congress.  I think candidates like this are the one’s we need to support.

Keith does have personal wealth but Connolly has raced money at a feverish pace and Keith will need the entire county’s help to close this out in the next 30 days.  The social issues that Connolly exploited two years are go are passe now.  If there is one thing that keeps Northern Virginia from turning 100% blue, its taxes.  VA-11 is one of the wealthiest districts in the country, and Congress’s complete inability to pass a budget and failure to secure the Bush tax cuts are very hot issues here.  Day after day, FImian has been hammering Connolly on taxes and the budget, and its working.

Please consider helping to defeat a Pelosi toady and sending a true conservative to Congress.  Please think about giving Keith Fimian some money.

I don’t live in New Hampshire, but I think coming off the news today that the Manchester Union-Leader has endorsed attorney and conservative Ovide Lamontagne its time for conservatives around the country to rally around him and not miss a chance like we almost did with Joe Miller.  New Hampshire doesn’t strike me as a state that you need a ton of money to do well in, and while there are businessmen and attorney’s general in the race, I see Lamontagne as the sort of candidate steeped more in conservative ideology and real-world experience rather than climbing state political office one by one.

Not that I have a problem necessarily with Kelly Ayotte, who I respect as well.  But I see her as just another senator, willing go along and get along.  She would vote well enough on most issues, but can we trust her or Bill Binnie for that matter to resist falling to the pressures of Washington – the wants and needs of the leadership, the deal-making, the spending, the earmarks?  Who knows . . . maybe she turns into Lady Thatcher but I doubt it.  Binnie is a non-starter – pro choice who’s doesn’t seem too keen on overturning Obamacare.

There is precedence in New Hampshire – Gordon Humphrey.  He ran a conservative, shoe-string, mid-term campaign that caught everyone off guard.  Humphrey beat a sitting senator, which is different from Paul Hodes, but nonetheless the state seems to be one that is always ripe for insurgency.

I hope to see everyone going all in for Ovide Lamontagne for US Senate!

Interesting since Didier is big with Ron Paul/Campaign for Liberty supporters as well.  I don’t know, this is a pretty bold move because the national GOP went ALL-IN to get Dino Rossi to get into this race against Patty Murray.  The latest poll for Rasmussen , however, has both Rossi and Didier beating Murray.  This, along with Alaska, I think are going to turn into big time insider vs. outsider races to end the primary season.

I personally like Didier a lot, another guy who’s lack of traditional experience is a plus and who’s running as an unabashed conservative.  Rossi is a great candidate too, but the guy appears to be a bit shop-worn and the state of Washington had two previous chances to elect him and they chose otherwise both times.  And while Rossi was likely robbed in his first race, he got beat pretty soundly.

Which is the best candidate?  Though I don’t live in the state watching governor’s races across the country is something of a hobby of mine because its these races where we get a look at the nuts and bolts of a state and what is really going on locally.  This has seems to have been a sleeper race with all the noise on Artur Davis’s disastrous run on the Democrat side.

Quin Hillyer at American Spectator has a piece out praising former State Sen. Bradley Byrne as a true conservative reformer (as well as AG candidate Luther Strange).  He paints State Rep. Robert Bentley as a tool for the local Alabama Education Association who has worked hard to stop Gov. Bob Riley’s school choice initiatives.  Byrne’s name has been out there a little while, but what does anyone know about Bentley?

You can’t come away from looking at Bradley Byrne’s political career and not be impressed, but I don’t know anything about Bentley.  This is a pretty important election because of all the insanity around the Gulf Coast, and Riley has done a very good job.

Any help?e

I have a decent following in Northern Virginia on my own blog, and last winter when rumors were swirling that local county supervisor Pat Herrity would run for Congress against Keith Fimian in a primary I decided it was Keith that was the true supporter of limited government and liberty.  Pat lined up every single major political player in Fairfax county and built his campaign on that support.  But I thought that Keith was still the better candidate, and worried that Pat was too establishment (which he is).  I was happy to see Fimian win his primary by ten points, and I think Fimian is a true candidate of the tea party and of the grassroots.  A fellow blogger in Northern Virginia caught Fimian at a fundraiser at a delegate’s house and he produced this video below.  Its nice to see a candidate who doesn’t just use boilerplate attacks, and instead articulates a vision and a reason for running besides beating Gerry Connolly.  So long as we have folks who have true principles, the winning will follow.

Keith Fimian For Congress

This new conservative movement has had some wins and some loses this primary season, but we are making ourselves heard and we are winning more than we are losing.  It was exhilarating to watch last night as South Carolina literally changed overnight with Haley, Scott, Gowdy, and Duncan overturning the status quo in the Palmetto State.

I agree with the editor’s comments in other posts about how important Mike Lee’s victory was in Utah for the party.  On my personal blog that I do from Virginia I have long talked about the only way for the Republican Party to regain the trust of the voters is to stop nominating the same people (or their allies) that betrayed our principles and lost the faith of the country.  That meant Bennett and Bridgewater had to be beaten, that meant Trey Grayson had to be beaten.  They all might be conservative enough, but its not just about that.  Up here in Northern Virginia that played out in our congressional race for VA-11 where Keith Fimian beat down Pat Herrity, a local supervisor with the support, backing, and pedigree in the local political establishment.  So with Haley, Angle, Paul, Rubio, and Lee through to the knockout round (to borrow a World Cup phrase), what’s next?

Obviously, Colorado.  Ken Buck is clearly the superior candidate in every way to Jane Norton.  In principle and in background, Buck must be the next man conservatives rally around and help win.  It seems that the work has been done and must be kept being done.

But past Colorado, I’m interested in two other western states – Arizona and Alaska – ironically the two states represented on our presidential ticket last year.  In Arizona, I’m inclined to support John McCain less and less than I was before, but I have a hard time convincing myself that JD Hayworth is the “consistent conservative” based on his record in Congress of spending, the deals with Jack Abramoff, and his wife.  If Hayworth was such a strong conservative, why did he lose a district he shouldn’t have?  McCain can be a huge pain, but he’s been a consistent leader against most of Obama’s priorities and you always know what your going to get with him.  I would love to see someone like Hayworth replace McCain, but I’m not sure I want Hayworth to be the man.

Not a lot has been said about Alaska, but Lisa Murkowski is not a senator I particularly respect.  Whereas Sarah Palin went out and earned everything she has ever owned in politics, Little Lisa got everything because of her father.  But that’s sour grapes, in the Senate Murkowski has proven she is not the conservative she claims to be.  When Erick talks about Republicans who work against conservatives, I think a case could be made that Lisa Murkowski is in that category.  Is Joe Miller a reliable opponent?  Is he someone that conservatives and hoist upon our shoulders and carry to victory in August?  I think he’s worth investing in.  Like Utah, Alaska is a conservative state that we should be able to find the correct candidate to run.  It does have a stronger Democratic Party than Utah, but not in this race.

Thoughts?

I’ll be honest, I have a bizarre fascination with the US Senate campaign of Linda McMahon in Connecticut.  And most of that comes from my 20+ years of being a fan of professional wrestling.  No really.  I know it sounds strange.  On top of that, the thought of Vince McMahon being that close to actual power is makes me laugh given his on screen persona.   There is no question that despite what her business is and how its perceived, by all accounts she has been a hugely accomplished business women.  And like a typical business person, she has played both sides of the political aisle when it comes to contributions.  She was from the research I did a clear supporter of Gov. Jodi Rell and was a member of the state board of education.  Believe it or not, this kind of stuff was reported on wrestling websites as well as political ones.  But she has been successful.  For those who don’t know, the WWF (as it was then known) was largely a northeastern regional wrestling promotion before Vince McMahon took it over from his father and expanded into the other territories and made it national company.  He also was a pioneer of pay per view.  But from the beginning, while Vince was the promoted, it was Linda running the business and the company exploded in growth especially in the 1980s and the late 1990s.  Its kind of hard to take it seriously I know, but if you forget what the product is you can’t help but come across as impressed by her business acumen.

I think the biggest problem for her is being taken seriously, but she clearly is being taken seriously by Connecticut Republicans.  And my theory right now is that more than anything Republicans need new candidates who aren’t tainted by the last 20 years.  Despite whatever successes Republicans had in their reign from 94-06, it ended badly.  Nominating retreads from that era won’t help us . . . its hard to be the party of sound and limited government by electing and elevating politicians who were there when the wheels came off.  Its why I worry about Dan Coats, Mike Castle, and Mark Kirk.  And its why I worry about Rob Simmons.

Oddly, I’m okay with them being moderates if they win the nomination fair and square.  I think the theme of the midterms will be chaos, and Republicans will win not because of the Democrats or Obama but because we have nominated new candidates with new ideas.  That process has been done in Utah and Kentucky, and looks like it will be done in Nevada and Colorado coming up.  Linda McMahon seems to fall into that category, someone new and different who might be able to help bring a new identity to the GOP separate from its still terrible brand.

Its hard to both separate Linda McMahon from her industry and her past DCCC donations.  But given her background, he money, the state she is running in, and he "newness" as a political brand maybe she’s worth taking a chance on.  I think so.

What do you all think?

US Rep. John Boozman, lost in the headlines from Kentucky and Pennsylvania, won an overwhelming victory in the Republican primary over Gilbert Baker and Jim Holt.  Its an impressive feat given the state’s primary-runoff structure.  And as the Democrats in Arkansas and nationally go to war over Lincoln and Halter, its critical now that the primary is over that all Republicans all over the country swing behind Boozman, who now has the chance to really give us a pick-up whether Lincoln or Halter is nominated on June 8th.

Arkansas has always been a tough nut to crack for Republicans running for federal office.  For whatever reason, moreso than almost any other southern state, Arkansas has clung to its old Solid South Democratic party.  As far as I can remember, Tim Hutchinson is the only Republican since Reconstruction to get elected to the US Senate.  For years Lincoln and Pryor have sat there as we struggled to find good candidates and issues to beat these guys.

The civil war between Lincoln and Halter, combined with Boozman’s electoral success in the state, makes this as prime a pick-up opportunity as we have in the country south of North Dakota.  I know Boozman might not be everyone’s first pick but, like Mark Kirk, he won.  Its time to get behind the next senator from the state of Arkansas.

John Boozman for Senate

The Weekly Standard links to an article by David Freddoso that in the wake of Mark Souder’s resignation from Congress, the best man to take the job just might be former Senate candidate Marlin Stutzman.  Many on this blog and others grew to love and admire Stutzman and his fresh blood campaign.  He did great given what he was up against.  Not only did the GOP establishment support Dan Coats, but he was an established politician in the state with deep roots.  It wasn’t the same as Crist, Coats had some conservative bona fides he could look too.

But Stutzman could clearly win the war despite losing the battle.  And while there has been open talk of Stutzman jumping back into the hunt in 2012 when Dick Lugar’s seat is up, a term in Congress could help establish himself as a tough new blood conservative in DC – the belly of the beast.  But will he sacrifice some of his outsider persona if he were to go to Washington?

Either way, the Souder resignation is a sad thing (but its nice to see a politician take responsibility for his actions), but if it means getting someone like Stutzman into a more prominent office would be a great silver lining.

This quote is at the heart of the legal argument Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is using in his (and other state AGs) lawsuit against this health care monstrosity.  He also argues that while the act of buying insurance IS commerce, the act of NOT buying insurance is not commerce so how can the federal government regulate something that doesn’t happen as part of interstate commerce?

I would also like to add that Cuccinelli is proof that its so important for conservatives to stay in the Republican party and fight.  There were a lot of influential people that wanted nothing to do with him running statewide.  Manny moaned that he would be a drag on the ticket, that he would hurt our chances in 2009.  Well, elections matter and arguably his was on the most important in 2009, even moreso than Christie, Brown, or McDonnell.  But if conservatives didn’t fight, we wouldn’t have this now.  So to all out there in states like Indiana, Kentucky, Florida, California, and New Hampshire (along with countless congressional districts) keep fighting, and keep fighting within the Republican Party.  Because if we fight we win, and if we don’t you will still be a force of power to deal with.

Here is a good video of Attorney General Cuccinelli explaining Virginia’s objections to this law:

Ken Cuccinelli on suing the federal government from Beehive Video on Vimeo.

One of the centerpiece campaign planks that Gov-elect Bob McDonnell ran on in 2009 was support of oil exploration off the shore of Virginia.  McDonnell, smartly, wants to use the eventual profits from the offshore drilling to help pay for badly needed transportation improvements across the Old Dominion.  A state seeking ways to pay for its own infrastructure without taking strings attached federal money?  Weird, I know.  There is a lot of promise off the coast of Virginia for oil, enough so that an agency called the Minerals Management Service, which falls under the umbrella of the Department of the Interior, to include Virginia in a bidding process to begin offshore drilling in 2011.  It was the only east coast state on the list.  Naturally, outgoing Gov. Tim Kaine has requested that the drilling be delayed.  The DCPost Virginia Politics Blog has covered this and has McDonnell’s letter to Interior Secretary Ken Salazar (which is where I got this info).

What is interesting is what Salazar and the Obama Administration will do about this.  McDonnell will hold office until January 2014 so the date for drilling, supposedly 2011, will fall in the middle of McDonnell’s term (for those who don’t know, Virginia term limits its governors for just one term).  His campaign was centered on a theme of Virginia finding ways to pay for its problems itself by other means past just tax increases.  Mark Warner skyrocketed taxes in 2004 and that was suppose to solve everything but year after year Virginia has had larger and larger budget shortfalls, all the while the actual state budget has increased.  So higher taxes have clearly not worked because they don’t go to what they are for.  The transportation trust fund that was created has been repeaditly raided for other things, and both Govs. Warner and  Kaine have played deceptive shell games with their state budgets moving money back and forth that we really don’t have.  The largest parts of the state – Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads – are starving for real transportation improvements and a sustained revenue stream to make it happen.  Tax hikes haven’t worked, regional tax authorities were unconstitutional, and federal bailouts will only have a short term effect before leaving important work uncompleted as senator after senator steals money for their state.  McDonnell has long advocated that profits from oil exploration off the Virginia coast should go to transportation, as well as creating much needed jobs.

I suspect that President Obama and Secretary Salazar will decline Virginia’s request.  First of all, Kaine opposes it and he remains a powerful voice in the Obamasphere as DNC Chairman and Obama would not want to a) go against his hand-picked party chairman and b) reward a new Republican governor across the Potomac who’s election was seen in some ways as a rejection of Obama in Virginia.  More importantly, the Obama Administration has made it clear they are not interested in oil drilling or nuclear power and instead are forging ahead on making America energy independent through Green initiatives.

There are three wild cards in the story.  The first two are Sens. Warner and Webb.  Webb is up for reelection in 2012 and this could be a major issue that Republicans could use to pummel him, while Warner’s first year as a senator as been one of agonizing decisions by a politician who prides himself on his centrism in a chamber were he is a the mercy of far left liberals who are twisting his arm hard and he has generally fallen in line.  Neither would want to go against Kaine’s stance either, though Webb might.

The other wild card is Virginia’s new attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli.  Cuccinelli is a staunch federalist who talked openly and often in his campaign about the need to return to a balance of power between states and the federal government.  Cuccinelli is itching for a reason to challenge the feds on something that he believes would infringe on the rights of Virginia.  What he will do as Virginia’s top lawyer will be interesting.

Below is Gov-elect McDonnell’s letter to Secretary is below.

Read More →

This from Politico caught my eye:

“As far as what’s happening in specifically Florida — we made a decision to endorse Gov. Crist at his request. But we’e really not involved in the primary,” Cornyn told Manu. “That’s up to the voters in Florida.”

When he asked Cornyn, “But you are at least raising and spending money for Crist?” Cornyn shot back –
“No, we won’t be doing any of that until after the nomination. Our job is to elect Republicans so voters in Florida will have a chance to sort that out.”

Cornyn elaborated on those comments to ABC’s Rick Klein early Wednesday, telling him: “We will not spend money in a contested primary… There’s no incentive for us to weigh in… We have to look at our resources. . . . We’re not going to throw money into a [primary] race leading up to the election.”

This basically is to me Sen. Cornyn walking back the NSCC endorsement of Crist, though I don’t know what “at his request” means when the endorsed him, but whatever.  If this is true, it looks like the true victory of ’09 was making the national party understand what is happening out there and we won’t stand for candidates to be annointed rather than chosen.  And this is all about NY-23, as Virginia and New Jersey our candidates had a united party behind them.

As for Charlie Crist, if this is true its a huge blow.  For him to get through this primary with Marco Rubio, he needs the national party pushing and pushing, using all its money and leveridge within the state.  If Cornyn has woken up and decided to stay out, this is a big deal.  Make no mistake, and I think I’m simply following the leaders on this blog, but Florida is the next battleground and this one we have a full running start.  Perhaps with Cornyn seemingly backing away, the playing field in this one will be even.

Read these numbers and sleep well tonight.

2nd District

• McDonnell: 61.8%
• Bolling:  56.4%
• Cuccinelli:   57.5%

5th District

• McDonnell:  61.4%
• Bolling:  60.6%
• Cuccinelli:  61.6%

11th District

• McDonnell:  55.1%
• Bolling:  51.7%
• Cuccinelli:  52.1%

-The 2nd and 5th are really winnable.  In the 2nd a wide-open primary is headed Scott Rigell, Chuck Smith, and Ben Loyola.  Also, moderate State Sen. Ken Stolle returned home tonight winning election as Virignia Beach sheriff, and he made a previous attempt when Thelma Drake won this seat.  Virginia Beach Mayor Will Sessoms is also talked about.  Lastly, two new delegates were elected in VA Beach in Ron Villanueva and Chris Stolle (brother of Ken), as well as incumbent Del. Sal Iaquinto.  This is a wide-open race, and as long Republicans don’t go nuclear on each other we should get a strong candidate hardened by a tough primary ready to steamroll Rep. Nye.  Remember, Bob McDonnell’s old House of Delegate district and political base is in the 2nd District, he’ll make sure this is handled correctly.

-The 5th district is the most winnable of all of them.  State Sen. Robert Hurt, who’s district is entirely in the 5th, has announced and is the front-runner.  But he’s vunerable to conservative primary challenger.  As a member of the House of Delegates, Hurt voted for the 2004 Mark Warner tax increases.  But there doesn’t seem to a serious challenger outside of Albermarle Co. Supervisor Ken Boyd, and a couple of lesser-known candidates in Lawrence Verga and Michael McPadden.  BTW, this is Creigh Deeds is district.

-The 11th the lines are drawn, Gerry Connolly vs. Keith Fimian II.  K-Fim did a great job starting from absolute scratch in 2008, the local party in dissary by losses of two state senate seats in 07 (only Cuccinelli survived), the abandonment of local kingpin Tom Davis, the cement shoes names George W. Bush, and the explosion of support for Barack Obama.  Its a different race this time around, Bob McDonnell won Fairfax County, the states most populous.  The most liberal precincts in Fairfax are in the 8th district, while the 11th includes portions of the more conservative Prince William.  What makes this election interesting now is that Bob McDonnell has shown Keith Fimian how to win.  Connolly will have two years of bad votes to explain and no Obama on the ticket.

-One last thing to remember about the Virginia 3 elections next year.  These three candidates will be alone on the ballot.  No presidential headwinds, no popular Senate candidates, nothing.  Nye, Perriello, and Connolly will be on their own 12 months after Bob McDonnell steamrolled through 2 of the 3 distircts and outright won all three.  Lets hope the NRCC can get their act together for Virginia and make sure we use this McDonnell victory as a road map and an energizing momentum builder for these races.