Even Jay Cost has noticed that someone is going to be wrong, because the polling variations this year are outside of the standard deviation. Polling averages are by definition going to be wrong, because we don’t have outliers on both sides of the deviations.

The only way the polls are right this year is if Democrats have a historic turnout differential against Republicans. And betting on things that have never happened before is generally not a smart strategy.

VA:
Survey USA 10/19 O 51 M 45
Public Policy Polling 10/22 O 52 M 43
Rasmussen 10/16 O 54 M 44
Mason-Dixon 10/21 O 47 M 45

Are just a couple of examples. For many more, check out the right sidebar of fivethirtyeight.com. I’m not saying McCain won’t win these states, I’m just saying that it’s pretty bold for someone to come out and say definitively that he WILL win these states.

MO: Mason-Dixon 10/23 O 45 Mc 46 Mc+1, same result in Suffolk poll

FL: Rasmussen & Mason-Dixon both have Mc +1

OH: rasmussen Mc 49 O 47 Mason Dixon Mc46 O45

NV: I have not seen polls since 10/16

CO: Genuinely up for grabs & one Obama could win (I said that above)

VA: Looking for some new polls on this one as well.

The Mountain State is WEST Virginia. Virginia is the Old Dominion. As a native Mountaineer I couldn’t let that go unchallenged.

Ed joked that he’d have to start charging Governor Palin the confiscatory State income tax, she’s been here so long.

Once again, taxing the people that provide the economy is the liberal response. Rendell should be thanking the McCain Palin campaign for spreading the wealth around in Pennsylvania and generating economic activity in his state.

The best way to be prescient is to predict everything in the subjunctive: then your editor can quote you after the fact for a jacket blurb, and – ta da! -you really ARE prescient!

Obama spent something like $50M trying to win Florida, and it is money all flushed down the drain.

The demographics for the state are Panhandle is Red (with a little Blue around Tallahassee), Jacksonville is Red, Space Coast is Red, Naples area is Red, Miami and Gold Coast is Blue. The swing areas are the I-4 corridor running across the state from Tampa, through Orlando, to Daytona. To win Florida, you have to win the swing districts in the center of the state. The other areas balance out.

If Obama can’t get the majority of the votes in the center of the state, he can’t win the state. That is why he has gone dark. He rolled the dice, spent a fortune here, and came up snake eyes.

I wouldn’t be putting much faith is a poll that is badly flawed in three different dimensions. If I had the inclination I could do the same analysis of NH polls, but I expect I would find similar results.

The truth is that CO, Iowa, PA and NH are toss ups right now. OH, FL, VA, NC, IN, MO, and NV will be going to McCain. NM and WI will go to Obama. All of these states are very close, so these predictions are assuming no further surprises.

Obama must win PA and two of the other tossup states. McCain wins if he takes PA or any two of the other three tossups (might need that 1 EV from Maine with a NH win).

Watch where the campaigns are right now, that tells you where the fight is. Obama keeping Biden off the campaign trail is killing him, since McCain/Palin are covering twice as much ground as he can, and a Palin rally is as big a deal as a McCain rally. He also lost FL when he threw the temper tantrum with the Orlando TV station. All the swing voters are in the Orlando corridor and he can’t win here without those votes.

This guy is a leftwing hack from way back. I am telling ya, these guys are starting to get nervous.

By the way, have Rove’s marbles gotten rattled or something. Indiana going to Obama. Really, I mean he’s off his rocker if he really believes that.

He’s becoming another Morris. They’re are both rudderless boats in a storm. They go where the MSM winds take them. They’re lost.

Also, your assertion of McCain winning NH seems a stretch, considering it’s been over a month since he’s led in any polls there, and quite a few have Obama ahead by double digits. Your assertion that Iowa is “possibly” up for grabs is bold as well, considering it’s been a month and a half since McCain’s even been tied in any poll there; and just about every recent poll has Obama up by double digits.

He used to run Hotline, Which was also run before by Craig Crawford Of CQ a Wacko Leftist & Vaughn Ververs who is now with CBS who is a Wacko Leftist getting the picture here

Chuck went on to say that Obama could lose Pennsylvania and still win because he was picking up CO and VA.

Uh huh. So Obama could lose PA, a blue state, yet he would win two red states?

Chuck went on to state that Obama could win the election without winning Ohio, florida and Pennsylvania.

This seemed like a big admission to me — that Ohio and florida are gone, and that Obama could lose PA as well.

I base my understanding of the campaign by where the candidates are campaigning. Obama? Colorado, check. McCain? Iowa (?) and Ohio. Palin, Florida and North carolina. Biden? no public events, Wilmington DE. Help me out here — is this the third or fourth time that Biden has been pulled off the campaign trail due to his inability to deliver a speech or talk to the media without screwing up? Yet he is touted in the media as a sign of Obama’s great judgment and Palin is a disaster. Really?

This is a very close election, and despite what you are hearing, McCain is going to win. There are only a few states up for grabs — Colorado, New Hampshire, the 2nd ME, possibly Iowa.

Nobama will pick up NM and perhaps Iowa. McCain picks up NH, 2nd ME, and wins. No, McCain is (probably) not going to win Pennsylvania (oh he may win it, but he isn’t going to “win” — Fast Eddie rendell will “find” some votes in Philly) and Nobama is not going to win Virginia.

Like I always say — Obama cannot close the deal.