I commented sometime ago about how worried Obama was about Penn. It did seem a bit strange that based on the external polls, both the Obama and McCain campaigns have been spending so much time and resources there. This little nugget you report adds some perspective.

The Obama campaign might have done that to get their people back to work.

Sean Quinn over at fivethirtyeight.com reported that in PA:

What we’re seeing on the ground with volunteering, especially with public polls showing double digit leads in Pennsylvania, is that the “flake rate” for volunteers is higher. “Flake rate” is the term for how the percentage of people who sign up to do a canvassing or phonebanking shift, and then don’t show up. It tends to happen when a candidate’s supporters get complacent. And it can happen in a hurry.

The Real Clear Politics poll aggregator still has a clear Obama lead in the state, but one that has declined a few points recently.

Whats your gut feeling on PA?

I am curious, any redstate members from PA??? If so what’s it like on the ground there regarding GOP grassroot efforts. Is McCain making any progress in the Murtha districts?? Scranton??? Philadelphia suburbs??? And also what about the traditionally red counties. Is there greater turnout there??? I would appreciate any reply.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/15/05041/703

Suburbs, outside Philly. Chester County. (Very affluent area) Highly republican, Also, big population of mexican (mushroom workers) and moving south, very rural. Driving to work, all I see are McCain signs. A few Obama. There is a democratic office something or other in town from here, I believe the closest Republican one is about 20 miles.

In the mushroom area where I assume to be very Dem, all I see are McCain signs. Last election, alot Kerry. I cheer ever time I pass through.

In my store, I have had a “Vote” box just for fun and to do some polling on my own. Been up about 2 months. The customers seemed to like it. So far, 57 votes McCain. 13 votes Obama.

Actually Joe Bidens house is about 10 miles from here. It doesnt seem to have made a bit of difference!

Alot of people I talk to say that they couldn’t believe Obamas and Murthas comments about clinging to our guns, us being racists and rednecks. I think those comments really affected the PA voters. With the exception of Philly and Pittsburg, I believe the people of PA are overwhelmingly for McCain. Even Philly, to me, is not exactly off the charts Democratic and I have no info concerning Pittsburg. Again, I think the demeaning comments struck a cord here!

he says there’s no way it won’t go McCain; you can read all his posts over at FR

As many early States that go into either contenders column matters in the overall outcome (see: Voting Psychology, Bandwagon effect). For that reason, if the State of PA were to lean to going for McCain/Palin you can rest assured the MSM will be slow to call it to prevent any positive Republican sway (as I go into detail in: Why MSM calls/reports when States go Blue).

We must continue the good fight in pointing out all the issues including Why the country cannot afford an Obama Surrender Doctrine/Dividend. Obama’s arguments get dumber and dumber as we get down to the wire trying to shake his “spread the wealth” comment and now having to dodge Biden’s latest reasoning why Obama should not be President in letting the cat out of the bag on Obama “will be tested” remark (alot of Diaries here on that one).

What good is it to gain PA if we lose Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and North Carolina?

I really am concerned about this tunnel vision on Pennsylvania. It is a state that has reliably voted Democrat nationally even if it is close in the count. I would worry more about states easier to hold like North Carolina and Virginia.

I live in Allegheny County, and Democrats are leaving the Obama ticket in droves. I think there is enthusiasm with the young and in the Squirrel Hill/Oakland crowd for him, but many older Democrats that are talking are supporting McCain. Different reasons, some better than others, but of the Union Democrats I know, I’d say a majority are voting for McCain and these are their supervoters.

I was at the Johnstown Rally for Palin and the McCain Rally at Robert Morris. Having been to my share of Republican events, what continues to strike me is how many women have been coming out. If it is indicative, I think the story that no one is telling but that may prove decisive is that Republican women are inspired.

In the general area, it seems like McCain is making gains in the surrounding counties. I see a ton of signs in Westmoreland County and Butler County, where I have been spending some time.

It seemed even more pronounced in Johnstown as Murtha continues causing problems for the Dems.

McCain yard signs are EVERYWHERE. To the point that if I see a Obama sign, I really take notice.

I spend most of my time however, in a very rural small town part of the county though.

The rally at Lehigh U, was supposedly PACKED, although I couldn’t make it due to work.

Here’s the link. They’ve only done one poll previously (ever, actually), back on Sep. 18, which seems a lifetime ago now, but back then they had PA tied, 45-45. Actually they’re polling all the Big Ten states, so it’ll be interesting to see where they have OH MI IN WI MN IA all coming in; the only one not within 5 points in their previous poll was IL.

McCain shouldn’t give up on Colorado, he should give up on getting the Hispanic vote. As usual his attempt to reach over the isle has done no good. He won’t win their votes. He could gain on the immigration issue.

He should go after Obama on the illegal alien drivers licenses, heathcare for illegals, lack of a border fence and everything else that will happen if Obama gets in office. It would also help expose the pro amnesty Senate wannabes.

Woohoo! Only 11 more points to go!

PA Polls

Yard signs are a notoriously unreliable indicator.

It also doesn’t mean much that McCain is winning in a given area, unless that area is metro Philly or Pittsburgh. Bush lost in 2000 and 2004 and yet carried just about every county outside of Philly, Pittsburgh and Scranton-Wilkes Barre.

The issues are how big turnout will be in the urban areas, who wins the suburbs, and how close Obama can keep to McCain in the rest of the state. In other words, it’s not whether McCain is going to win around Harrisburg or along I-80 (he better), but how big he wins around Harrisburg or along I-80.

You know it’s not a blowout because both campaigns are contesting the state actively. One campaign can be mistaken (as McCain seems to have been in contesting Iowa so much), but probably not both of them. This is a state that can still be won or lost.

One interesting thing about Pennsylvania is that it’s not an early voting state. There are absentee ballots, but of the traditional “I won’t be in my home precinct at all on election day” type. That’s going to put real pressure on both sides – but especially Obama in the urban areas – to get their voters to the polls in that narrow time window and have the withstand the long lines.

Obama is well organized and active all across the state, including the red areas. In the rural areas I’ve visited, the McCain people are pretty well organized as well, but more in a grass roots way.

However, McCain could:

1. Say he has learned his lesson on immigration (he says he got the message).

2. Admit his stance nearly cost him the nomination.

3. Warn voters that Obama and the Democrats running for the house and senate have such an extreme position on immigration that it threatens the security of this nation.

Drivers licences, no border security, voter fraud, in state tuition, healthcare for illegals, increase in work visas (as unemployment is going up), an end to e-verify will all be law unless someone in the Whitehouse or the Senate is there to stop them. It is a popular stance to take. Even Harry Reid was for eliminating citizenship for anchor babies when he first ran for reelection.

showing him with only a 2 point lead I think he would be spending alot more time here. I’m not even sure of the last time he was in PA. Rendell my be correct however in being pessimistic about the polls for Obama. It kinda shows a sense of taking PA for granted from Obama. Living in Central PA my whole life, I know there are indeed a lot of people who won’t vote for a black man. Not a majority, but enough that could make the difference.

why McCain is still targeting Pennsylvania is because of that lack of early voting that you mentioned. The fact that he may be behind there doesn’t really matter until people are actually voting, and since they wont vote there (other than absentee of course) for another 9 days gives him a maximum chance of victory. Of course I still think Michigan was even MORE winnable than Pennslyvania, but they made their choice so hopefully they can at least win this one.