It has been established that Barack Obama is a celebrity without portfolio, to combine lines from Lindsey Graham and former Democrat Joe Lieberman. The latest Gallup tracking poll, the one which recently had Obama up by nine points, “has moved back into a statistical tie,” with Obama up by only one: 45% – 44%.
The latest three-day average confirms that Obama was unable to solidify the significant lead he briefly enjoyed among registered voters at the height of publicity surrounding his weeklong visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and Europe… [and] the presumptive Democratic nominee has been losing ground.”
Desperation?
The John McCain campaign has kicked the Axelrod Show and its ditzy, celebrity candidate where it hurts, and the campaign manager, Plouffe, is accusing everyone of being Karl Rove and demanding $5 to get Obama’s message out that he is not — “nu-huh” – an empty celebrity. That he in fact has substance and stuff and is not just a pretty face.
In the face of these new attacks, you can help demonstrate that a movement funded by grassroots supporters giving only what they can afford is ready to take on the Republican fundraising machine and its onslaught of negativity.
Obama is vulnerable here, as he has shown little substance and almost no original thought so far. His peeps know this, so it seems they want to fight back in some way, no doubt involving a terribly hubristic proclamation. The irony is, the money will go toward further projecting Obama’s celebrity image and papering over his lack of a leadership skills and substance. The promise of a free Hopechangehope for every working class household, and all that.
And now, the Axelrod Show has had to throw yet another Obama campaigner under his bus.
But the show must go on. After all, it is not quite August yet.
Moe Lane
Steve Maley
Dan McLaughlin
Neil Stevens
Daniel Horowitz
And that's registered voters
jimmuy8 (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 1:26PM EST (link)Not likely voters. And the likely voter model a few days ago showed McCain in the lead when the registered voter model had Obama with 49.
Like I’ve said: Obama’s wall to wall media adoration (apotheosis) and he can’t get above 45%? The guy should be at 55%. That’s got to scare the few rational Democrats left.
My problem...
Mark Kilmer (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 1:37PM EST (link)with the LV vs. RV, per these polls, is: What’s the difference between a voter claiming to be registered and one who Gallup thinks, for whatever reason, will likely vote? The factors which make on likely to vote change with the particulars of each individual election, anyway.
My faith in these surveys goes as far only as to say that no one is obviously running away with the vote. At least not yet.
President Carter was leading by a large margin over his oppponent in 1980. I wonder when Carter broke 50%.
Oops, he did it again...
CSUFBomb (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 1:38PM EST (link)…when the pimply-faced mailroom clerk strolls into the boardroom and tries to convince everyone that he’s ready to become CEO, it’s only a matter of time before the adults ask for a resume.
–
“We want great men who, when fortune frowns, will not be discouraged.” – Colonel Henry Knox
Theme Song Suggestion - "Celebrity"
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 1:46PM EST (link)Brad Paisley’s “Celebrity”.
Playing it would mock Obama’s celebrity status and drive home the message that Obama is Hollywood – an empty suit. It’s also a catchy, clean country tune that would resonate with much of Red State America.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEPe4fZNf74
“Yeah when you’re a Celebrity
It’s adios reality
No matter what you do
People think you’re cool
Just cause your on T.V.
Being a Celebrity…
Yeah Celebrity!”
It only works in the movies.
NightTwister (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 1:59PM EST (link)The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter. – Winston Churchill
This is what Obama is hoping for...
Attack Mode (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 2:06PM EST (link)….I know it may seem weird but really this is what he preaches….the little guy getting his chance to shine by getting rid of the big business fat cat….I wonder how many times Obama watched this movie.
“Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper” Peter Griffin…Family Guy
conform and celebrate diversity….or else!!!
Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger
“I’ll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust” Justatron paraphrasing Obamessiah…yes I love it that much.
Mark, if you really want to know
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 2:13PM EST (link)Here is a link to an analysis of the Gallup LV model. It is one of the few that is openly published.
As for your question regarding factors contributing to likely vs registered, the fact is that no they actually don’t change every election. Every election, someone claim that “this election is different”, but it has yet to pan out. Example is “this is the year the youth vote will turn out”. Every two years we hear that, and we are still waiting.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Obama is now screwed
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 2:19PM EST (link)He is now significantly trailing in how people will really vote, and that is without any Wilder effect factored in.
Expect to see him start doing some really weird things out of desperation. If those don’t work, his next option will be firing campaign staff. This is where being a rookie is going to really hurt him, he doesn’t know how to deal with running behind, and he is likely to instinctively make serious mistakes.
I’m downgrading his chances of winning the general election to 25%. McCain has found the sweet spot to beat on Obama like a drum.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
The Primary "Likely Voter" Screen Is Past Voting Behavior
IJB Thursday, July 31st at 2:19PM EST (link)At least, that’s my understanding of how they screen “likely” from “not likely” voters.
Most of the people around here have probably voted in every primary and general election going back years, so most of us would qualify as “likely voters”.
But if the pollster asks, “Did you vote in 2004? In 2000? In 1996?” and the responder answers no to any/all of those, they usually get downgraded in the “likely to vote” category.
After that, they may look at something nebulous like “enthusiasm”. But I know past vote behavior is the primary screen.
The commercial drew blood and wasn't all that well produced.
spainishirish (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 2:22PM EST (link)The theme resonated even though the commercial is not explicit enough in equating Obama to the other vapid celebrities. I don’t know if it can be done, but four Obamas playing at the Hollywood Bowl circa 1965 to adoring fans juxtasposed against the Berlin speech would seem a good follow up. Perhaps the Beatles weren’t vapid enough so maybe screaming fans at a Britney concert would make a better analogy.
As an anecdote, this is the first commercial from either the primaries or the general I have heard discussed in my office, and even Obama supporters can’t really do much more than spit or hiss about it. The substance–the total lack of qualification–isn’t lost on anyone.
As for “likely voters,” I believe Gallup asks a series of practical questions (“When was the last time you voted?” “How often do you vote?”) to derive that demographic.
I'm not saying...
Mark Kilmer (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 2:31PM EST (link)that “this election is different”; rather, what motivates people will be different with different emphases, and that is not particular to this election. Each one is different.
There’s the African American vote big this time, the youth vote, and the vote of those motivated in the other direction. McCain will get most of the vote of those who consider terrorism to be a threat which must be dealt with realistically.
What will motivate you to vote? What motivated you in past elections? Why won’t you vote? Etc.
I’ll see what Gallup is up to.
Perfect theme song Swamp_Yankee! n/t
Vegas_Rick (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 2:42PM EST (link)n/t
“God is great, beer is good and people are crazy.”- Billy Currington
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge.
Perfect theme song Swamp_Yankee!
Vegas_Rick (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 2:43PM EST (link)Another might be Carly Simon’s “You’re so vain.”
“God is great, beer is good and people are crazy.”- Billy Currington
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge.
Dunno
MikeO Thursday, July 31st at 2:49PM EST (link)The “adios reality” part throws a monkey wrench into it. I don’t think Senator Obama and reality have ever been in the same hemisphere together, and I don’t see how it’s possible to say goodbye to something you’ve never met.
great stuff
phxg (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 3:42PM EST (link)I don’t buy the Youth Vote theory. Kids never vote in any substantial numbers.
BTW, Love the “a celebrity without portfolio” quote. I’m gonna use that frequently.
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. –Aristotle
great stuff
phxg (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 3:43PM EST (link)I don’t buy the Youth Vote theory. Kids never vote in any substantial numbers.
BTW, Love the “a celebrity without portfolio” quote. I’m gonna use that frequently.
It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. –Aristotle
Over 1 Million Views
jimmuy8 (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 4:09PM EST (link)Of the “Celeb” ad on YouTube. His “Troops” ad, the one where he made fun of Obama for blowing off the troops, has just over 400k. This thing is really blowing up–McCain definitely scored a direct hit on the Good Ship Obama.
And again, thanks to Hillary for showing just how easy it is to beat Obama like a cheap drum over experience.
And we haven’t even gotten to the “John McCain was staring down Vietnamese torturers back when Obama was staring down Fruit Loops over Saturday morning cartoons.”
The Gallup LV accounts for this
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Thursday, July 31st at 4:15PM EST (link)All of those factors you mention are accounted for through a measure of voter enthusiasm. A point is assigned to them if they are highly aware of the nature of the election and engaged.
The point of the LV model is that every election the reasons for voter enthusiasm changes and the groups that are enthusiastic change as well. But it is the enthusiasm itself that contributes to the likelihood they will vote, which is what they use to make the determination.
The funny thing is that the Gallup model already gives the youth vote an extra point in the LV model, which negates the argument that “this year they will show up and vote for Obama”. The Gallup polls have credit for the youth vote already built in, which has been one of the historic criticisms of their model.
I’ll withhold final judgement until I see the Rassmussen tracking poll, but I suspect there is panic in the Obama campaign right now.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy