And I don’t mean that as a joke.

The way all of the polls are trending now, Dems are only picking up 3/4′s of their own registered voters. Assume the best–that they get a full 3/4 of their registered 36% number and that is 27% at best for Coakley. Add in 1/3 of the 51% registered Independents (unenrolled) and you only get an additional 17% for a total of 47% tops.

Add in the 2% that the Libertarian, Kennedy, is polling and that leaves 51% for Brown. And that is an absolute, best-case scenario assuming all registered Democrats vote and all Independents show up at the polls who would vote Democrat.

That isn’t going to happen. The “likely to vote” number for Coakley supporters is 60% as opposed to 80% for Brown supporters. Independents show up on election day a lot less than do registered Dems or Republicans, and I’d bet that Independent Coakley supporters are much less likely to vote tomorrow than Independent Brown supporters. Turnout will also be reduced for Democrats, who aren’t enthused and see polls saying it doesn’t matter if they show up to vote or not.

Factor that in and I’ll second your prediction. I would not, at this point, be surprised to see a double-digit resounding win for Brown of at least 54% of the vote, with Coakley in the lower 40s.

And with those kinds of numbers, I do not see the House Democrats falling all over themselves quickly approving the Senate version of health care. I see a lot of people objecting to a lot of things and suggesting they go back to the drawing board.

which takes the money from your credit card and places it in your account. Once you have this account collateral, you can begin making trades.

You trade directly with other intrade customers. Intrade takes a commission for the transaction, but has no stake in the outcome (other than it wants to be sure you have enough to cover your losses).

I see the last Brown price is $71. That means one customer agreed to have his account credited $29 if Brown wins, or debited $71 if Brown loses. Conversely, the other customer that took the other side of the trade would be debited $29 if Brown wins or credited $71 if Brown loses.

Thus, like in futures markets, no money is put down up front, other than sufficient collateral that ensures losses can be covered. Further, this crediting/debiting doesn’t occur all at once at the end by the exchange, but rather as prices vary/close each day. (Which reduces risk for the exchange, since there is a daily settle-up.) Also, you don’t have to hold your position to the election’s determination if you can sell or cover your position to another custormer at the price the two of you agree upon. The difference between the price you agree upon and the last closing price will be the amount you will be credited/debited that day.

To engage in a trade, you can enter a price for someone else to hit (I BID $70 to buy Brown, or ASK $72 to sell/short Brown.) You can leave that bid or ask outstanding for a specified time, or leave it until you cancel it. Alternatively, you can look at the outstanding bid or ask offers and hit one if you want to trade immediately.

That’s the long answer. Now that the mechanics are clear, the short answer to your question, who sets the initial price, should be clear. The first two customers that agree to take the opposite sides of a trade at the price they (asynchronously) agree upon.