Is 63 Million Votes a Mandate?


Checked in the context of history, the answer's "No"

Category: , , , , ,

RSS feed

6 Comments Leave a comment

Incumbency

I was a retread named Zombie Flanders / randomkid. Friday, November 7th at 2:46PM EST (link)

I think the key thing here is to think about challengers vs incumbents. There have been a lot of bigger landslides, but the biggest ones are for incumbents. In terms of non-incumbents, in postwar times, this was bigger than 2000,1992,1976,1968, and 1960 and smaller than 1980,1988 (though HW was veep), and 1952. It is the biggest vote for a non-incumbent in 20 years, and if you count the veep as a pseudo-incumbent, the largest since 1980 with Reagan.

Also, it seems bigger given recent history. People said “mandate” after Bush in 2004, so they’ll say it after Obama now.

 

65 million, not 63 million, and still counting

Reaper0Bot0 (formerly Han_Pritcher) (Diary) Friday, November 7th at 3:08PM EST (link)

Obama – 65,132,302 53%
McCain – 57,185,339 46%

Is it historic? No. It’s by no means the largest margin of victory. But it was absolutely not small. He’s ahead by just about eight million votes, and again, they’re still counting.

In Response . . .

mailloux (Diary) Friday, November 7th at 4:41PM EST (link)

2006personoftheyear & HanPritcher:

I see both of your points and appreciate you folks sharing your thoughts. It’s always helpful to get different angles, especially with data.

Yes, Obama’s vote margin was healthy, but I still think it falls far short of the expectations surrounding his campaign. Several outlier polls even put him ahead by up to 15 points. And, in no small part due to his messianic image, some thought this would be the mother of all blow-outs, and thus, an indication that he’s got a resounding mandate for a sea change far to the left.

In my post, I also wanted to stress the 1932 election of FDR. He too was not the incumbent and the US was experiencing an economic crisis at the time. FDR’s margin of 17.7% in the popular vote was far more impressive than Obama’s 6%. The media has hammered away at the idea that the 2008 crisis is just about as bad as the Great Depression (as an aside, my local paper in Wisconsin featured a picture from the Great Depression of two children eating salted lard sandwiches issued by the government . . . this was the weekend before the election and in context to the 2008 financial crisis. Thank God, we are not reduced to eating salted lard sandwiches and hopefully we won’t be. As I write this, you can still buy, at a very reasonble price, a Cheese Mountain Pizza at QuickTrip Gas Stations and wash it down with a mind boggling choice of beverages.). This was the pre-election message the media pushed because it was harmful to the incumbent party. Obama was to be the cool headed savior, already compared to the likes of Lincoln and Kennedy, that was supposed to sweep in and save us with a new New Deal. In my humble opinion, the vote margin of 6% doesn’t indicate that the public looked at it in quite the same way.

Again, thank you for your excellent comments and for reading my post.

Take Care,
mailloux

 
 

Mandates don't exist. Period

Republican_Michigander (Diary) Friday, November 7th at 6:33PM EST (link)

At least since 1930′s. Those that claim mandates always tend to overreach and fail. Reagan was close but lost the senate in 86. Bush lost in 06 after 04. Clinton lost in 94.

Less Government, More Freedom

http://republicanmichigander.blogspot.com

 

Landslide, no: Mandate, yes.

ClassicConservative Saturday, November 8th at 12:34AM EST (link)

20 House seats, 6 Senate seats, and +7-8 million on his opponent… thats kind of a distinguished win.

I’m not going to lie, if McCain and the GOP achieved that I’d be calling it a mandate.

Landslides and mandates

Erik and Kipalee Bakken Sunday, November 9th at 4:08PM EST (link)

A landslide usually means nearly all the land is sliding, doesn’t it? Not 54%-56% of the land. If the Packers win 21-14 against the Vikings, nobody calls it a “blowout.” Let’s save terms like “mandate” and “landslide” for times when it really warrants it.