Don’t try to sound smart with an improper “whomever.” Only one sin per post should be tolerated. You must pick one or the other.

and I was able to interpret that the only poll that matters is the one on Tuesday. Also, I got the clear impression from passersby that spitting on said sidewalk is rude. Prognosticate all you want, these polls are so fubar’d there is no meaningful way to interpret them IMHO.

I disagree with your analysis mainly because I don’t think Obama is going to win Virginia.

I have never, in all my times working elections, seen such a high level of volunteer participation and commitment.

McCain supporters are determined to get out the vote here.

I just returned from a poll observing/ballot integrity meeting at the HQ here. Normally, we have to beg people to do this. The group was so large we couldn’t fit them into the center, we had to stay out in the halls. And, by the way, guess what group was a good sprinkling of the volunteers? PUMAs.

We have long ago learned to dismiss the polls done before the first Tuesday in November…there is only one that counts.

So buck up, get down to a Victory Center and make some calls or work the polls, and help get out the vote.

“Here is a Sunday update to my election analysis, using the most recent RCP information. Assuming BO overpolling 1 pt.”

Wow. Do you have an advanced degree in statistics?

Next time to be more effective you should write something like this:

“Here is a Sunday update to my election analysis, using the most recent RCP information. Assuming BO overpolling .09765 pt divided by the square root of 1.765 in Kerry states and multiplied by pi in Bush states.”

It would be just as useful and yet much more impressive.

I would add, however, that if we see the high conservative turnout that you suggest could make the difference in key places, that McCain could still win without Pennsylvania.

You’re predicting a one point Obama win in Virgina, for instance, and a three point win in Colorada, but a four point win in Pennsylvania.

McCain, according to your predictions, has a smaller gap to bridge in Colorado and Virginia than he does in Pennsylvania. And there are arguably more conservatives that could turn out in Colorado and Virginia than in Pennsylvania. If McCain takes Virginia and Colorado but loses PA, and your other predictions are correct, then he’s got 270 EV and the White House.

You are giving numbers for New Hampshire that favor Obama more than the current Rasmussen numbers for Maine. Four and eight years ago people were doing the same thing. In both cases, the eventual margin was 9000 votes.

New Hampshire will likely be very tight no matter who wins. However, note that in 2004 Bob Smith was campaigning for Kerry, and Kerry’s Massachusetts machine was essentially local. In 2006, many Republicans essentially boycotted the election. Neither is the case this year.

That doesn’t mean McCain is the favorite, but it does mean that McCain has not been wasting his time today in Manchester and Nashua rallies with Curt Schilling.

and diss all over your Wheaties, but just exactly what are you basing all this ‘in-depth’ analysis on?

Did I miss the part where you explained the statistical rationale for the ’1% overpolling’ of his holiness, or why the undecideds will break as you claim? Or is your methodology of the same school as the rest of the MSM pollsters–i.e. whatever you deem it to be?

That’s a lot of wasted bloviation there, bub.

Or do you do it for the “hope?”

‘Cause a diary like this is nothing more than pure Obama agitprop, Eeyore junk.

If you are sincere, sorry. And delete this defeatist junk. Why? Because all it does is perpetuate the whole “we’re doomed, 0bama will win” crap. Further, it adds nothing of value.

Jeez, I mean, really: don’t buy what 0bamamedia is selling and don’t sell it either.

We got an election to win–reading animal guts is not prediction.