The online left has been busy selling the narrative over the last several month that the Democrats’ electoral problems are due to problems with their base. The theory being touted by the leading luminaries of the leftist fever swamps is that if only Democrats were more liberal, they’d be doing better in the polls. The only problem with this theory, of course, is that it represents the exact opposite of the truth.
See Exhibit A, a poll conducted by Mason Dixon released Sunday showing Incumbent Democrat Congresswoman Dina Titus tied with relative unknown Joe Heck in the race for the Congressional seat in NV-3. You may never have heard of Dina Titus before; that’s because her district is one of the more reliably Democrat districts in the entire country – Democrats have an 18 point registration advantage in this district. In keeping with what you would expect from a representative of such a heavily Democrat district, Rep. Titus voted “Yes” on all three of the major prongs of the Democrat legislative agenda for this year: Yes on the Obama Stimulus, Yes on cap-and-trade, and Yes on Obamacare. Furthermore, Dina Titus does not have any major corruption or personal issues driving up her unfavorables like Jon Corzine did or like Chris Dodd does. It also can’t be that voters are punishing Titus for the failure of the Democratic legislative agenda in general; the House passed all three measures and Titus was a contributing factor to all three.
The only reasonable explanation of the evidence here is that even in this heavily Democrat district, the policies currently being pushed by Obama and the Democrats are simply not popular. The Mason-Dixon poll indicates that Obamacare is currently opposed by residents of the district by a margin of 47-41. Although crosstabs aren’t available for this poll yet, Mason Dixon claims the respondents are appropriately weighted for the district’s party registration, which leads to the conclusion that Titus (like Corzine and Deeds) is getting clobbered among independents by a huge margin. The problem is not that the American people don’t know what the Democrats stand for; the problem is that they have seen clearly what the Democrats stand for and they don’t like it.
The online left is pushing the “you’re unpopular because you’re insufficiently liberal” meme for a very transparent reason: they are attempting to force through as much of their legislative agenda as possible during this two-year window, and are willing to sacrifice large numbers of elected Democrats to accomplish it. If I were a Democrat interested in keeping my job, this poll would make me very nervous about following their advice or about cloaking myself in Obama’s policies. Marching in lockstep with Obama might have looked very smart for Democrats 6 months ago, now it looks to be a road to electoral defeat.
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
NV 3
proudgop (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 10:52AM EST (link)I don’t believe NV 3 is reliably Democrat it has 33,000 more registered Dems but Obama won it big last time
Republican John Porter was ousted last cycle by Titus who ran for Governor against Gibbons ( might of been some buyers remorse seeing Gibbons is so unpopular)
I think John Heck is great recruit for us
NV-3: I Tend to Agree; Party Registration Means Little
Swamp_Yankee (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 11:14AM EST (link)A Republican won the last three elections in a row. Heck is a highly reguarded. Party registrations can be misleading like they are in the South.
Yes, NV-02 Only Has a D+3 PVI
IJB Monday, December 7th at 11:20AM EST (link)That means it somewhat “leans Dem”, but is not a “solid Dem” district.
Some of us think the GOP may be able to pick off up to D+5 districts next year – a D+3 district is definitely vulnerable in a GOP ‘wave’ election.
The poll was apparently weighted
Leon H. Wolf (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 11:22AM EST (link)At very close to D+18. If that isn’t accurate, Titus is in more trouble than the poll indicates.
————
We can’t stop here. This is bat country.
Then yes she is
proudgop (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 11:34AM EST (link)and so is Reid
this district is a huge chunk of Clark County and if Dems don’t do well here they lose statewide
PVI Is Different From Party Registration Numbers
IJB Monday, December 7th at 11:39AM EST (link)PVI tracks how people actually vote in elections, as opposed to who’s registered in which party. So Mason-Dixon, as they should, weighted for the latter.
Still, there are likely districts out there where the D’s have a clear party registration edge, but the district’s voting patterns tend to come out as more of a ‘wash’ because the ‘Independents’ in the district are more GOP-leaning. I’m guessing NV-02 is one of those. (And, I mistyped – NV-02 is actually D+2 PVI, not D+3…)
In any case, I agree with yours (& others’) overall thesis here that this is a winnable district for us, and that the Dems should be looking at their polling results in places like NV-02 and NH-01 and having alarm bells go off.
But, you know the Dems & the nutroots – they won’t take the hint.
Demographics aren't everything
KevinM Monday, December 7th at 11:50AM EST (link)proudgop and Swamp_Yankee are right on this and Mr. Wolf has some errors. As stated, republican Jon Porter held this seat and was defeated by Ms. Titus as part of the Democrat Sweep that occurred last year. To Call Joe Heck an “unknown” is a mistake. Until last year, both he and Ms. Titus were Nevada State Senators. Like Jon Porter and other Nevada Republicans, he lost his re-election bid.
If someone from the area
Leon H. Wolf (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 11:59AM EST (link)Wants to write a diary that is from the perspective of someone more familiar with the district, I’m happy to update my post and link to it. I may front-page it.
————
We can’t stop here. This is bat country.
It's a real stretch to call Jon Porter a Republican. nt
Vegas_Rick (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 12:31PM EST (link)“God is great, beer is good and people are crazy.”- Billy Currington
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.” Calvin Coolidge.
Yep, he was part RINO
KevinM Monday, December 7th at 12:39PM EST (link)He was one of the few republicans that supported the expansion of SCHIP that was part of a futile attemp (in my opinion) to keep his seat in last year’s election.
Are you trying to say there isn't a GOP wave coming? (nt)
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 12:06PM EST (link)RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder
No-one has/is saying that (that I've seen)....
JLenardDetroit (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 1:38PM EST (link)however, it would seem that Senate Republicans are intent on MINIMUAL(ZING it as much as possible with their PATHETIC strategy – following “Senator Aricept” (John McCain) off the Cliff…
Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”
Follow @JLenardDetroit
(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
“The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)
I was asking proudgop (nt)
Neil Stevens (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 2:34PM EST (link)RS contributing editor, technical administrator, and “a hardy variety of crabgrass.”
Read the RedState Posting Rules
Unlikely Voter: Poll Analysis, Election Projection.
“I rejoice that America has resisted.” – William Pitt, the Elder
"Marching in lockstep with Obama"
penguin2 (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 11:01AM EST (link)Going right off the cliff. I have seen polls out that show a decreased expected Democrat voter turn-out projected for 2010, and their fine Leftist leadership is screaming that they need to pass Health Care, in order to rev up their base to turn-out and vote. Somewhere in there is a disconnect.
IMO, I don’t think their base really cares that much about these bills, they only cared about making history in a presidential election. The real tragedy in all of this; if HC passes and we do not repeal it and undo the damage, it is the poor and minorities and the most dependent groups of society that are going to feel the worst effects of it, starting with Medicaid and Medicare.
Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. – Benjamin Franklin
When Good stands up to Evil, Evil blinks. – Vassar Bushmills
Conservative Education: Suggested Reading List
Activists Taking Action: Unified Patriots
Here is what can happen when you march in lockstep
izoneguy (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 11:04AM EST (link)North Korea currency change sparks panic
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8394987.stm
The point cannot be made often enough: Modern liberalism, as embodied in the Obama presidency, is the defender of the status quo. And the status quo is a road to economic ruin. Political forces cannot redistribute the wealth that the economic system does not produce.
The Lefty base of the Dem party sounds just like the
janis (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 11:32AM EST (link)lib-moderates in the Republican Party: You have to move to the left in order to win!
Regardless of the polls showing that the majority of Americans don’t agree with abortion policies, that the majority thinks that the Dem party can’t be trusted with national security, don’t like their stand on taxes, the economy, etc., the Left is still screaming for more liberal policies as a winning strategy. And so are way too many on the right. Both parties are out of phase with the American public.
Incumbents on both sides should be lying awake at night reevaluating their career objectives.
Wish we were closer to shore!
azaeroprof (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 11:44AM EST (link)Right now, there is a potential tidal wave growing. I just wish the elections were less than 11 months away, as that is an eternity in politics and the stimulus was (intentionally) weighted for 2010 to artificially prop up the economy.
Being an engineering nerd, I took the changes in the generic ballot polling (since the actual numbers are somewhat dubious). I combined the generic ballot polling by party with the recent poll about the probability of voting by party preference. Based on the 2008 vote and the changes from this fairly simple model, I predicted that if the election were held today, the GOP would pick up +69 seats in the HOR! And I don’t think my analysis was overly optimistic.
The big question will be how much of the current environment will still be prevalent next November.
If you look at polls of all types, you will see that the looney liberal
Tbone (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 11:54AM EST (link)position always hovers around 25%- 30%. Example, those who still strongly approve of Obama. You can add about another 10% for strong liberal leaners on policy issues and there it stops. It now enters the area of independents.
However, people don’t vote for percentages of candidates or policies, it is either yes or no. This is why people need sharp contrasts to make a decision. When you put up a RINO, there is insufficient contrast.
Polls show that people respond better to the sanity of conservative positions than the insanity of liberal positions such as high taxes or AGW or Obamacare.
Yet, the current Republican leadership consists of a lot of warm spit types that are perfectly capable of blowing the 2010 midterms. God help us.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
Amen, brother Tbone. Apparently the R's in
janis (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 12:01PM EST (link)leadership positions never bother to look at the same polls that we do. They still seem to think that they must be squishy to do their job correctly. What I wouldn’t give for leadership that actually LED!
Other than the "it's cool to vote for the Black guy" phenomena,
Achance (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 12:03PM EST (link)the real difference in ’08 was that there was no difference. Even with the Godawful headwind of anti-Bush, anti-Republican propaganda, too much of it true, McCain/Palin still could have won that election had the old fool not gone to his true nature and played “get along, go along” on the economic crisis.
McCain was so bland, vague, and inarticulate on issues that there really wasn’t much difference between his and BHO’s state positions on most things; basically, the middle didn’t know what either of them really stood for. If on that fateful day that he “suspended” his campaign, he’d have actually come out and stood for something, or in this case against something, it is at least somewhat likely that he’d be President today.
In Vino Veritas
5 Art!
azaeroprof (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 12:10PM EST (link)That was an undoubtedtly winnable campaign. He so fired up the base with his choice of Palin (yes, yes, I know). Then it seemed like he decided he needed to spend the rest of the campaign apologizing for firing up the base.
Well, all that and the fact that he literally endorsed BHO
janis (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 12:12PM EST (link)as president himself during the campaign. “Senator Obama would make a good president and I think he’s experienced enough for the job.”
Or words to that effect. Which just shows why JMac himself wasn’t qualified for the job.
Personally, Art when it comes to who we vote into office nothing really changes
Richard Mullins (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 12:19PM EST (link)And 2008 was only a side show for the never changing process. The Zombie effect worked quite well last year(that “Don’t vote against the Black guy” thing).
Richard Phillip Mullins BlogThe Squash Satire SiteNews on Happy Jet Airlines
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Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.
Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.
It helps that McCain
aesthete (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 12:24PM EST (link)doesn’t have any articulate vision for America, or overarching philosophy for what good governance looks like, beyond “bipartisanship” and “comity”; qualities which no one outside of a Senate committee gives a crap about.
The act of defending any of the cardinal virtues has today all the exhilaration of a vice – G.K. Chesterton
McCain, and McCainiac copy cats or admirers/followers, learned nothing from the last election
JLenardDetroit (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 1:14PM EST (link)shamefully. So I’ll repeat it yet again….
the Conservative Revolution, or Republican brand resurgence, will ONLY be repeated by Conservatives working within the GOP (and its Conservative Platform) and ensure its Leadership is controlled by fellow Conservatives!
Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”
Follow @JLenardDetroit
(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
“The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)
McCain never really had a chance to win
Tbone (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 1:26PM EST (link)because he is John McCain. He could not have made better decisions without being someone else. This is the danger facing the Republicans, they expect “better decisions” from those incapable of making them. We need to only support candidates who will make good decisions because that is who they are.
Envisioning when all that is Left is the Right.
"Cool Black Guy" Phenomena.
egonm206 Tuesday, December 8th at 6:37AM EST (link)Actually if McCain had won, America would have continued on the same path except not nearly as fast. Total control by the left is waking the great American “silent majority” finally up and come 2010 and 2012 America will have a chance to make a u-turn on the PC-liberal trends of the past 50 years.
So this breakneck speed of socialist change could actually become a blessing in disguise in the long run.
I hope they take the (you're not Liberal enough) advice line
JLenardDetroit (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 1:08PM EST (link)because we all know, that they fully well know, that it isn’t true and that they have to continue the trend of CCINOism. Lying about their true intent has helped them back into power by coopting Conservative rhetoric (as they still try to push the whole “Public Option” plan IS COMPETITION line of BS) and fooling just enough Middle-Road Mush-brains (Politically Brain-dead) to couple with Leftist voters (that know the Liberal/Democrats are LYING and are only CINO on the campaign trail – hence: CCINOism and) that know their actual voting pattern will be Pavlovian Blue-Dog.
Let us hope they fall into answering the demand of their loon supporters and go more Liberal — that, we know, as demonstrated Election after Election, is a loser — as clearly evidenced by their recognition and need to LIE on the campaign trial in order for them to get Elected. There is ZERO DISPUTE that the Nation is still Center-Right, the same DLC lies (CCINO) of Clinton, and on down the line, to have to get pretend to be what they are not to get themselves and fellow Liberal-Lefty-Loons elected.
and then, of course, there is that whole other problem (other discussion) of too many Republicans constantly moving Left (rather than to the Right as they should) that blurs that line and keeps handing Elections to Democrats. Until McCain is ousted and made example of, we will continue to fight that battle. But, again, that is not “this diary”
lol.
So…. GO AHEAD LIBERALS…. MAKE OUR DAY…. Please, go more Liberal!!!
Regards from NoMoTown (the MOTORlessCITY)
“Liberals, looking to do for? America what they’ve done for? Detroit! which is DESTROY IT!”
“I think, therefore I am Conservative”
“Conservative by choice, Republican by necessity”
“You can lead a Liberal to the Truth/Facts, but you cannot make them THINK!”
“Romney [No, not my first choice] does NOT have a MORMON problem. He has a, far too many Americans; these days; are MORONS problem!”
Follow @JLenardDetroit
(RS:Help) (JLD) (Hollyweird) (Brain-deads) (SPIN-cycle) (Obamaocare) (Party of kNOw) (Conservatism) (TEApeats) (respectful) (message) (Warning: Children Will Die!!)
Heil “O” Hell No Obamao is NOT MY PRESIDENT! “No U won’t”
I want “O” to FAIL (here, here, & whole Diary (Ofail) here, is why)
“The first Liberal was Satan” – a Rush caller (other Quotes)
Could indeed be a wave next year, but.....
swami7774 (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 1:59PM EST (link)….at some point the GOP must put something out there for voters to be “for”. Being not-the-Democrats gets us only so far.
Need something akin to the Contract For America.
Today, there is a name for the political doctrine that rejoices in scarcity of everything except government. The name is environmentalism.
Rush today analysed the evil twins, O'care and
redneck_hippie (Diary) Monday, December 7th at 2:21PM EST (link)climategate as really the same problem. Liberal Lies.
He just kept pounding on the same thing over and over. Liberal Lies.
All our candidates could do good by adding in the 3rd one, porkulus, and The Liberal Lies would take off. Being for something is all about what kind of government we should have. Being for principles is more important than specific plans when we have a rogue government out to destroy peoples’ lives. Character is something people “get” instinctively and we need to tie it to a limited government, freedom platform a la Reagan.
2010
sarge324 Tuesday, December 8th at 6:57AM EST (link)with all this nonsense making our lives in care of the government.and our freedom being pushed out of our lives.the fore fathers will help me vote .the press and the government lose sight of the people.liberals have taken over the press.they have not stop our right to vote ,YET.they will hear our voices in 2010.
"a Republic if you can keep it" Ben Franklin
GenEarly Tuesday, December 8th at 12:25PM EST (link)Make the choices between Washington,Jefferson,and Jackson. Notice Jackson was a Democrat who killed the National Bank (Federal Reserve)and Obama,Carter,and Marx.
The real fundamental debate is whether we have a functioning Constitution anymore. I would say barely, on it’s last legs as we cling to the 1st and 2nd amendments and long ago lost the 10th.
Surely a clear majority still favor freedom to government serfdom,but the choice must be clear. Republicans only mouth slogans for freedom while voting socialist. Nixon was not only a crook but a socialist as well. Ford, and Bush 1&2 were socialists,just look at what they did not what they “said”.
If they're shooting themselves...
soljerblue Tuesday, December 8th at 2:04PM EST (link)“The online left is pushing the “you’re unpopular because you’re insufficiently liberal” meme for a very transparent reason: they are attempting to force through as much of their legislative agenda as possible during this two-year window, and are willing to sacrifice large numbers of elected Democrats to accomplish it.”
It has been said in the past that when Dumb-o-crats have a firing squad they form in a circle. If the statists are in the process of shooting themselves, why complain? Surely there are things we can do to help the process along. A big one would be to get the attention of the GOP leaders to move them closer to real conservative positions. We want the midterms to be a political tsunami for the left, not just a few seats changing hands.