For many years now, Byron Dorgan has sailed comfortably to re-election in North Dakota despite his liberal voting record in one of the reddest states in the union. This year, however, Dorgan has been one of the key Senators responsible for shepherding Obamacare through the Senate. A recent poll released by Zogby indicates that if popular Governor John Hoeven challenges him, Dorgan may be dead in the water:
UTICA, New York - In a potential 2010 election match-up Republican Governor John Hoeven leads Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan 55% to 36% with 9% undecided. Senator Dorgan, however, leads another possible challenger, Republican Duane Sand, by a similar margin, 60% to 28% with 10% undecided.
Twenty-eight percent of likely North Dakotan voters support the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama compared with 62% who oppose the proposed legislation, including 48% who strongly oppose the bill. A plurality of respondents believe that both North Dakota Senators Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad support the proposed bill.
Unbelievably, the numbers get instantaneously and significantly worse when voters are informed of Dorgan’s support for the bill:
When asked how a vote by Senator Dorgan in support of the healthcare bill would impact their potential vote for the Senator in the 2010 election, 12% of likely voters say they would be more likely to vote for Senator Dorgan as a result, while 40% would be less likely.
…
When likely voters are told that Senator Dorgan supports the legislation his support in the potential horse race against Governor Hoeven slips to 31% with 61% preferring the Governor and 8% undecided.
That’s a pretty easy 30-second campaign ad to generate an instantaneous 30-point gap against the incumbent. Privately, Hoeven’s people seem to indicate that Hoeven has no interest in going to Washington, but if Hoeven throws his hat into the ring, Dorgan clearly has two choices: abandon Obamacare or start preparing his retirement plans. Given that most Senators have a remarkable sense of their own self-preservation, I can bet which one Dorgan would choose.
Steve Maley
KnightsofMalta
Dan Spencer
Moe Lane
Dan McLaughlin
All About Recruiting
DavidSage (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 2:23PM EST (link)It’s infuriating such a liberal Senator is representing such a conservative state, but Republicans haven’t been able to recruit a quality Republican to beat this clown.
I think the game is up though with this dying breed of Democrats pretending their conservatives at home and then voting like liberal Senators from Massachusetts when they’re in D.C.
The next few election cycles, you’re going to see a huge purge of Senators from the Red States. The way the Senate is set up, Republicans should have a comfortable majority.
The Republican Party should give Hoeven ANYTHING he asks for if it will convince him to run. Democrats are much better at convincing quality candidates to run.
Hoeven
Daniel Horowitz (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 2:29PM EST (link)Someone needs to lock him in a room until he agrees to run!! He would make the Dems wet their pants.
In all seriousness I don’t blame him if he has no interest in leaving ND to go to the swamps of DC.
With that said, you make a good point about the Senate being tailor made for Republicans. Being that every state has equal representation and there are more red states we should easily have 60+ R’s with over 50 of them being solid conservatives.
And The States Are Incredibly Cheap To Run In
DavidSage (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 2:46PM EST (link)These Red States that have Democrat Senators, like North Dakota, have incredibly cheap media markets. A million dollars can easily make or break an election there. A million dollars in a state like California is a rounding error.
There’s about 10-15 “deep” Red States that go Republican at the Presidential level by 10-20 percentage points EVERY election, yet the have liberal Democrat Senators representing them. So you have a very receptive audience that clearly has a conservative majority.
If we had a Soros-type character for our side with some deep pockets, you could really do a lot of damage by having a “Red State Senate Project”, and have an easy 60 seat majority in the Senate. You’re talking about having a lock on one of the branches of government for generations.
I would much rather spend resources on states like South Dakota and Montana than waste $30 million trying to chase a single Senate seat in an expensive blue-state like California that at best is a long shot. You could completely fund 10 Senate campaigns in rural red states with that kind of money, and have much better odds of actually winning.
That's a good point
aesthete (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 2:59PM EST (link)and ties into a point that Art makes often: we should abandon the blue states to their own devices, and work on running our states effectively and making inroads into purple states. I’m not sure how I feel about that idea, but the fact that media markets for those states are so cheap does add some substance to that concept.
The act of defending any of the cardinal virtues has today all the exhilaration of a vice – G.K. Chesterton
Conservatives Should Be More Strategic About Donating
DavidSage (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 3:47PM EST (link)I understand the impulse of living in a state and wanting help raise for funds for the hometown Republican challenger, but your money would go a lot further by trying to knock off Democrats that are currently interloping in true Red States.
For example, if I lived in state like California, I personally would set aside whatever funds I would want to give to a Senate challenger like DeVore, and instead throw that money towards Senate races in Arkansas or North Dakota. If conservatives started being more strategic about this, you could funnel millions of outside money into more winnable states where the dollar goes much further.
I’m not saying to completely abandon blue states, but unless there’s a special circumstance where the incumbent is incredibly unpopular and vulnerable (like say Dodd in Connecticut) I would first focus resources on winning all the inexpensive, conservative red states, then move on to hunting in the purple states.. Also, remember that a Republican from a Red State is usually going to be a much better conservative than one from a Blue State. Blue State Republican senators are usually in the mold of Olympia Snowe. I would much rather have a Republican Senator from North Dakota than one from California.
I guess we can write off Scott Brown, then
The_Rebel (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 5:27PM EST (link)http://www.redstate.com/swamp_yankee/2009/11/28/meet-scott-brown-do-you-believe-in-miracles/
But do you really think he will join a Republican filibuster?
ericstenner Monday, November 30th at 2:56PM EST (link)He seems to have really clearly stated his support for a public option. Even under the scenario you are talking about, how likely is it that he would kill the bill?
No, but...
Mike (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 4:01PM EST (link)…he could start sneaking in amendments that would gut the bill entirely.
For example, if he allows two or three things in this bill that royally piss off the progressive caucus, the Progs are on record for being against the bill entirely. So let slip a few amendments that they don’t like, and the bill implodes.
He doesn’t have to filibuster. His kill-shot would be much quicker and cleaner.
One can only hope...
Aaron G Monday, November 30th at 3:14PM EST (link)While in my college days I thought it was great that so “backwards” a place as my home state had “progressive” representation in Washington now that I’m older and wiser I realize these yahoo’s need to go. Unfortunately, we’re creatures of habit and our deep scandanavian roots make us complacent and wanting to avoid conflict. Yes we Dakotans will talk a good game about the corruption in DC but then go and vote for the same reps we always have because they bring home the farm dollars. Also, if you look at the county by county breakdown the state is deep red until you get to the far east where Fargo and Grand Forks flip blue. Unfortunately, this is also where about 1/6th of the population lives.
I’m hoping this is the year the rest of the state finally wakes up and realizes that all 3 of our reps need to go. Hoeven would also be a shoe in because people like him and while he’s served the state has thrived (though this rightly should also be credited to our fairly conservative state congress and the oil boom in the west part of the state.) However, if Hoeven would run and take Dorgan out at long last I suspect there would be a sudden shift in the mindset of Pomeroy and Conrad as they would see they’re next.
Lame Duck Equals
OneCleverCookie Monday, November 30th at 4:09PM EST (link)Lame Duck equals a vote for ObamaCare unfortunately. A lame duck has no incentive to do the peoples will, instead this political animal is willing to scuttle the system in hopes of profiting from the chaos that ObamaCare will inflict on the citizenry.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.”
Winston Churchill
This is why Hoeven needs to be vague.
jeffreywturner (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 4:48PM EST (link)He should drop hints in some interviews that he is considering a challenge to Dorgan, even if he has no intention of actually doing so.
He should indicate that Dorgan’s actions over the next few months will determine if he thinks he should run.
Either way, Hoeven needs to wait until the last possible moment to announce for sure if he is going to run. This way, Dorgan will be coaxed into placating Hoeven by sinking Obamacare.
“Life is too short, can’t we all just eat pork and kill some terrorists?”
If nothing else, just to spook Dorgan
crosley (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 6:11PM EST (link)All Hoeven needs to do is make a few head fakes, and I could see Dorgan voting both against cloture and ObamaCare. If I were Hoeven, even if I had no intentions of running, I would play head games with Dorgan just to rattle him and hopefully score another vote against universal health care.
It’s Hoeven’s Senate seat if he wants it, Dorgan would get crushed, especially with the fallout since the 2008 elections towards the Democrat agenda. Republicans should offer Hoeven any chairmanship he wants if he runs.
My guess is though if Hoeven announced he was running, Dorgan would probably announce his retirement and make a nice salary as a lobbyist.
Dorgan doesn't appear to follow the people's will
bk (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 5:09PM EST (link)so whether he’s a lame duck or not he’s going to vote for it. The only question is whether that vote turns him into a
lamedead duck or whether people in ND keep blindly voting him in no matter how liberal he votes.Silver Bullet for Obamacare?
1stRichard (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 4:26PM EST (link)Scott Brown for U.S. Senate, MA special election date is January 19, 2010, that’s 81 days from now, subtract holidays and ….
Anyone have any predictions on how long Obamacare is going to be in the Senate?
http://brownforussenate.com/
What are the current polls?
Kyle-MI (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 4:40PM EST (link)I don’t have much hope for the land of Ted Kennedy, but anything may be possible.
polls?
1stRichard (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 7:39PM EST (link)I am not going according to the polls but what is going on is more important. Winning this election should be easy, give conservatives a reason to fight, show the unenrolled there is a difference and do not play in the socialist sandbox. The hard part seems to getting the campaign to do something, as they are slow to reply to conservative questions and a heavy dependence on phone banking only. The unenrolled here are clearly fed up with the tax and spend liberals and surprisingly some of the moderate liberals are fed up as well. I think if they know Brown is in the race they will vote for him but I have not seen any TV advertisement for brown yet. I see Sholley and Fleitman at the conservative grassroots events and having fundraisers out this way but not Brown. Robinson is in the primary against Brown, Robinson is a pro gay marriage progressive/liberal that shouldn’t even be in the GOP. If Brown is not elected it would be because someone here didn’t have the act together and not because of the land of Ted Kennedy. However, there is a chance someone could step in and get this campaign going.
1stRichard, I think your math is off, or did I miss
throwback59 Monday, November 30th at 4:38PM EST (link)something. I believe the election is 50 days away. The sooner the better.
Oops…
1stRichard (Diary) Monday, November 30th at 6:30PM EST (link)Ok, I was trying to find speculation Obamacare is going to be in the Senate and add at the same time, my bad
There is Hope
guyaverage (Diary) Tuesday, December 1st at 2:24AM EST (link)that The Government Takeover Of Healthcare will be a salient issue. In the recent past, the Old Media has propagandized for The Establishment Left in such an effective way because the issues in DC were not as immediately life-changing for the average citizen as are the products of Barack Obama’s administration and the Leftist Majority in Congress.
http://guyaverage.blogspot.com
again---is there a way to undo
dudette Tuesday, December 1st at 5:30AM EST (link)the whole healthcare mess if this boondoggle passes? ALso can citizens sue Mary landrieu for their share back of the $300mil. bribe????
Be proactive folks
proudgop (Diary) Tuesday, December 1st at 9:02AM EST (link)If you want Hoeven to run like I do send his office an email indicating you want him to make the race. Let’s bombard him!
governor@nd.gov