Marist: Rudy Leads Gillibrand, Trails Cuomo


Over the last few days, speculation concerning Rudy Giuliani’s plans for 2010 has run rampant.  I have seen stories variously claiming with certainty that Rudy will run for governor, that he won’t run for governor, that he hasn’t decided whether to run for governor, that he will run for Senate, and that he hasn’t decided anything yet.  Provided that Rudy hasn’t already made up his mind and is just being coy with everyone, this poll released today from Marist (.pdf) may perhaps be informing his thinking. 

It indicates, among other things, that Rudy would plaster current sitting governor David Paterson.  However, Paterson is pretty much a dead man walking at this point, and the general assumption is that Andrew Cuomo will get the D nomination.  Against, Cuomo, Rudy currently trails by 10, 53-43.  Both men are relatively widely-known quantities in New York, so it’s difficult to imagine a radical shift in either’s favor. 

On the other hand, Rudy’s path to the Senate appears substantially easier.  First, the Marist poll indicates he would easily win a hypothetical primary against Pataki (71-24), and that he holds a substantial lead (54-40) over Gillibrand. This would seem to indicate that if Rudy enters this race, it would promptly become one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities in 2010, perhaps better than NV, AR, CT or DE. 

In talking to several New Yorkers, most of them would prefer to see Rudy run for the Governor’s mansion, where his talents would be put to a more direct use.  However, as a matter of pure political calculus, Rudy can doubtless see where the easiest path back to elective office lies. And if he has designs on a run for 2012 or beyond, the Senate might be the best place for him to mend fences with the portions of the national GOP electorate that cost him the 2008 primary, as well.



RSS feed

21 Comments Leave a comment

love Rudy

angryred Friday, November 20th at 1:34PM EST (link)

Bronxite here!! Wonderful man but tends to be liberal on social issues. Might not be so great in the Senate bc of that. (baby in arms; typing with one finger)

1-20-13 Hope for Change

The country needs this guy...

writeblock Friday, November 20th at 5:25PM EST (link)

Rudy has a background in fiscal issues. He knows what needs to be done to turn the country around again. He did it in NYC, cutting spending, firing bureaucrats, lowering taxes, restructuring agencies, fighting crime, selling off municipal properties, facing-down the race-hustlers demanding favoritism for minorities, blowing off the NYTimes…He also knows how the CIA and the FBI and the Department of Justice function.

Nobody has that kind of record–not Pawlenty, not Romney, not Huckabee. The only one who comes close to being that kind of scrapper is Sarah–who fought the establishment and won. She’s a doer like Rudy–a real reformer, not just a talker–though Rudy excels in articulating the conservative vision. My dream ticket would be Rudy and Sarah in 2012.

 
 

I would back him for a Senate seat.

antisocial (Diary) Friday, November 20th at 1:43PM EST (link)

Though I must say he is not really a man with good vision. As an administrator he is great. But nothing better than picking up this Senate seat.

Obama Doctrine – Boot On The Throat
—————————–
What is to be done?
——————————
No. You can’t – Moe Lane
——————————
The Emperor has no clothes!!!

 

Big Rudy Fan

crosley (Diary) Friday, November 20th at 2:29PM EST (link)

I still think Giuliani would have made it a much closer race than McCain did in 2008. He’s not a perfect conservative, but the issues he’s strong on he’s a gladiator that’s not afraid to back down.

Giuliani has supposedly said he’s not running for Governor, and he’d probably lose against Cuomo anyway.

He really should run for the Senate though, he’d destroy Gillibrand.

 

Rudy

wgsampson Friday, November 20th at 3:40PM EST (link)

is solid on fiscal, law and order and defense issues. I don’t know his record on gun control, but he is definitely a social libertarian. Can conservatives get much more in New York (state wide)?

He is a great administrator, and could campaign on that record. Furthermore, in light of the KSM nightmare, he would remind everyone what a great leader (executive) he was on 911. Couldn’t he beat Cuomo with that?

Where would he be more valuable – the Senate or the Governors Mansion?

 

Governor is a no; here's why...

The Only Woj Friday, November 20th at 4:09PM EST (link)

Former Staten Island Borough President Guy Molinari, a close Giuliani pal, said the former mayor has shared doubts with him for weeks about running for governor.

“What he said to me is that he doesn’t think he’s going to do it,” Molinari said about a conversation earlier this month with the former mayor. “It just didn’t make any sense to him.”

Molinari said the ongoing circus in the state Senate, combined with Democratic Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver’s iron grip on Assembly matters, had convinced Giuliani that a Republican governor would have little ability to get things done quickly in Albany.

“The big drawback for him was – could I really be effective?” Molinari said. “He saw too many hangups there. He’s not running for the title, that’s for sure.”

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/11/19/2009-11-19_former_mayor_rudy_giuliani_to_announce_plan_to_run_for_us_senate.html#ixzz0XR5qg8R2

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/11/19/2009-11-19_former_mayor_rudy_giuliani_to_announce_plan_to_run_for_us_senate.html

 

The Senate is a better fit.

writeblock Friday, November 20th at 5:08PM EST (link)

He’d fulfill the rest of Hillary’s original term–and be set up to run again in 2012. I hope he goes for it.

I don’t buy that Rudy can’t get through the GOP gauntlet because of his social views.

Two points need to be remembered: he had always been reasonably sympathetic to GOP positions on social issues and was never a fervent opponent; and the country is in much more peril this time around–peril that requires exactly his kind of capabilities.

Rudy is an executive genius. He gets the impossible done–despite media opposition, despite political opposition, despite racial politics. All this was thrown at him while he was mayor–but he got the job done just the same. Before that as US Attorney he broke the back of the Democratic political machine in NY, sent corrupt Wall Street billionaires to jail, and sent the heads of the NY mafia to prison for long terms. Before that he was Asst. Attorney General under Reagan. He has intimate knowledge of how the federal system functions. There never was a candidate in our time more qualified for the top slot. Instead we gave the nod to McC. And then there was his cool-headedness on 9/11…

I could never understand why we should have insisted that a blue state big city candidate like Rudy was supposed to appeal to farmers in Iowa or evangelicals in SC when our opposition would be primarily in blue states and in the big cities.

Rudy polled remarkably well nationally against both Obama and Hillary, leading by around 5 or 6 points. He also polled well among the GOP rank and file across the board. He just could never get traction in those small states. Yet he was leading in polls against Hillary and Obama in places like CT and NJ and PA and FL–where there are huge Italian-American populations–the Reagan big city ethnic Democrats, a bloc as big as the black vote and the soil out of which Judges Scalia and Alito have sprung. It was crazy to have ignored this potential in order to appease voters who inhabited the South and wheat belt mostly–regions already in our pocket. What kind of political sense did that make?

I completely agree

DavidSage (Diary) Friday, November 20th at 7:54PM EST (link)

Giuliani made some horrible strategic decision in his campaign, but he would have been a much stronger candidate against Obama had he won the nomination.

Most of the problems he has with social conservatives are moot when it comes to real public policy goals. Appointing strict constructionist judges takes care of about 90% of the agenda for social conservatives, something I have no doubt he would do.

At the end of the day, my first priority is a conservative that can actually get something done, and Giuliani has shown he can implement conservative solutions in one of the most liberal cities on Earth. Other contenders like Huckabee and Romney talk a great game, but have achieved almost nothing.

If Rudy wants to make another run for the White House, he needs to knock off Gillebrand in the Senate.

 

Rudy was kneecapped by a cheap political hit job in late 2007

Finrod (Diary) Friday, November 20th at 11:50PM EST (link)

There were all kinds of cheap-shot accusations against him in October-December of 2007, and it knocked him out of front-runner status. He tried delaying entry until Florida in an attempt to restart his campaign, but by then McCain and Huckabee had momentum, and Rudy couldn’t get anywhere in Florida either.

IMHO, some Dem operatives that saw him as the biggest threat in 2008 were behind it, and that’s why we got stuck with McCain, since Rudy’s former supporters had to go somewhere.

Let’s get down to brass tacks here. How much for the ape?

He's a RINO

samdallas (Diary) Friday, November 20th at 11:53PM EST (link)

Don’t let them play you.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz (nt)

IJB Saturday, November 21st at 12:19AM EST (link)

I can judge him quite fine enough for myself, thanks. (n/t)

Finrod (Diary) Saturday, November 21st at 3:26AM EST (link)

.

Let’s get down to brass tacks here. How much for the ape?

 

And samdallas

mbecker908 (Diary) Saturday, November 21st at 7:36PM EST (link)

you’re an idiot.

 
 
 
 

Yes!

raydawggie Friday, November 20th at 5:28PM EST (link)

Rudy is a great politician who showed exactly how to govern a Democratic big city from the right. He may be a moderate, but he’s about as conservative as can get elected in NY. I’d love to see him take down the empty suit that is Gillibrand. And then he’ll be in a perfect position for 2012. I can see the campaign posters now.

Giuliani 2012 – it won’t be the first time he’s cleaned up someone else’s mess.

 

Rudy would better than lap dog Gillibrand

redpens (Diary) Friday, November 20th at 6:14PM EST (link)

he’ll destroy her. He has more principles, Gillibrand votes how Obummer tells her to vote

 

I want Rudy to take on Schumer.

shadowtax (Diary) Friday, November 20th at 7:34PM EST (link)

I know it is foolish. But the KSM terror trial needs to be a major issue in the Senate race in a serious way. I haven’t heard anything from Schumer on the matter, but I want to drive him into defend NY or defend the Obama Administration. If Guiliani wins, I want it to be attributed to a strong issue like that rather than because he was better than a lightweight candidate. These two heavyweights should slug it out in the biggest fight in the history of ever. Has anyone polled that match up?

Also, I’m hoping that maybe there are some Dems that would like to see Schumer fall. Would Cuomo prefer that for any reason? Anyone out there who wants to be king of the NY Dems?

My Guess (And It's Just a Guess) Is That Rick Lazio Will Run Against Schumer...

IJB Friday, November 20th at 8:25PM EST (link)

…And effectively be the sacrificial lamb to Schumer, while Guiliani likely slaughters Gillibrand in the other NY Senate race. (Though, in 2012, I think Rudy’s chances at reelection would dim considerably, running as he would be on the same ballot with Obama.)

Lazio probably has nothing to lose in running – after all, in 2010, there’s an outside chance that even Schumer’s act will have gotten old to New Yorkers, and he may bet booted as a result. If I was Rick Lazio, I’d probably give it a shot…

Rudy's chances in 2012...

writeblock Friday, November 20th at 9:14PM EST (link)

He wouldn’t want a second Senate term imo. He’s not that kind of politician. Rudy is an executive, a doer, not a team-type guy. I don’t think he’d enjoy being a senator. But it would make a great lauching pad for the highest office–and he would destroy Obama’s chances for a second term. It would be like Reagan picking off Carter. Rudy is strong in the NE–traditionally Democrat territory. In 2007 and 2008 he polled very well in places like NJ, CT and PA–against both Hillary and Obama, usually ahead by about 5 or 6 pts.

 

Lazio

proudgop (Diary) Saturday, November 21st at 7:53PM EST (link)

Lazio is running for Governor; he already announced

 
 
 

Senator Rudy

Castor (Diary) Saturday, November 21st at 10:15AM EST (link)

I voted for Giuliani in the primary although he was not the perfect conservative on social issues. He could take down Gillibrand in a New York minute. With Rudy it´s a sure pickup of a senate seat. If Lazio will go against Schumer and the economy still in the tank , an upset is entirely possible depending on the condition of the economy in Octiber 2010.That would be a twofer!

 

Not a Perfect Conservative, Not a Conservative At All

Superheater (Diary) Saturday, November 21st at 7:27PM EST (link)

I still think Giuliani would have made it a much closer race than McCain did in 2008. He’s not a perfect conservative, but the issues he’s strong on he’s a gladiator that’s not afraid to back down.

How? BHO didn’t run against McCain, he ran against George Bush. Rudy was brought down to PA to “help” Rick Santorum against “where’s Bobby” Casey and Santorum was hammered. Rudy would’ve been painted as “pro-choice” Bush, animating the left and generating even more Conservative antipathy than McCain.

Moreover, given a shot to influence the national stage, he recommended Bernard K. Not sound judgement.

I agree though that he’s not a “perfect conservative”, he’s not a conservative at all.