A new Siena Poll shows that Tedisco’s early lead seems to be eroding. Now to be sure we don’t know if these polling results are accurate and we don’t know what turnout will be like on election day. Tedisco could end up winning by 25 but I think it is a predictible result when you run a insider politician in a atmosphere (especially amongst conservatives) where big spending Washington politicians are so disliked.

It is too funny that the Republican is a career politician, earmark king, running ads attacking his opponent for being a “big businessman” “wallstreet” guy who give bonuses to executives. It is like twilight zone stuff.

To top it all off the Democrats process of picking their candidate was open and involved meetings with all interested candidates in which they sat down at a restaurant with each one for a significant amount of time to find their best candidate. Republicans on the other hand had a closed door process which seemed phony from the start where the county chairmen voted based on whether the prospective candidate had friends in their county.

So here we are just over two weeks away from a special election with a candidate who won’t take a position on anything including the stimulus bill (which on that issue puts him to the left of representatives like Castle-DE, Gerlach-PA, and Kirk-IL who all have lifetime ACU rating of less than 63 and represent districts much more liberal than NY-20). And a candidate who lacks principled anything and representes the opposite of principled conservatism.

So as a member of the 20th district I have been struggling with what to do. Do I vote for someone who stands against some basic core conservative principles (which I have done before) but in addition who’s reason for these positions are based on political calculations rather than core beliefs (which I have not). And the answer is no. I know that some people will say “how could you” and push arguments about our numbers in the house and so on. But the reality is that if we are to make a comeback the next real chance for that is in Nov. 2010 not in 2009 via the NY-20 Special Election. By that time we will be able to find a prinicpled candidate to fight the Democrats and Obama. This is the best long term result. And even though the short term prospect of victory by Tedisco may be appealing to many it would be worse than a band-aid on a severed limb because while a band aid may not further hurt the severed limb a Tedisco win would further stomp on any claim to conservative principles that the Republican party has.

There will be many well qualified and admirable candidates who would face off against Scott Murphy in 2010. Right now we need to be patient and disicplined not careless and self defeating. By sending another big government porker to Washington.

 
UPDATE:Here is the Picture

I was driving into law school through the city of Albany, NY and I saw a public middle school sign flashing the words “All Hail President Barack Obama” and it brought a wierd feeling over me.  It just didn’t sound right.  It sounded and looked cultish and reminded me of the chants given to ruthless dictators like Hitler and Kim Jong Ill.  Now I know we have a song called “Hail to the chief” and that All Hail is a expression of acclamation.  But i have never seen it in all my life like that, on a sign in this country.  Maybe I’m nit picking too much but I never would expect a public school to be telling their students to All Hail a politician no matter who he or she is.

On a different angle aren’t the schools always complaining about how they constantly need more money.  Isn’t a giant electronic sign like this one a little pricey and overboard.  Isn’t there a cheaper way to remind people who the President is and when PTA meetings are being held.

Finally, I called up the school and got the secretary I asked who I could talk to, to complain about the sign and she insisted that she could take my complaint but as soon as I started complaining she tried to tell me that I had nothing to complain about and started lecturing me on free speech (it is scary that our public education employees don’t know that the first amendment free speech right is meant to stop the government [the school, in this case] from censoring the people, not to allow the government to use our money to espouse their views).  On a final point I asked if they ever said anything like this for President Bush and as you can imagine she said NO.  So our taxpayer money (its all of ours since they most likley get federal funding) is used to praise a President depending on what party he is in.

Let me start this post with a full disclosure. I am addicted to polls. I can’t wait for new polling data to come out and when it does I take it all in for a few minutes and them immediately want more polling. I check the RCP Average multiple times a day. I follow the Gallup and Rasmussen Tracks everyday, and when Gallup has McCain doing worse than Rasmussen I rationalize in my head why Gallup polling stinks. Heck I even read commentary about polling. But the other day I realized something. Polls at this point in the game are completely meaningless, and when the election gets closer they still won’t be all that useful.

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I posted this a while back at Real Clear Politics and Conservative Politics 101.

Some of it seems to be happening, and other parts can still happen, National Security did become a big issue again in mid-august but not because of the War but rather the Soviet Union. Also I missed the Energy Debate, but my Veep picks still look ok. So for the record here is some thoughts about the race from early July.

Not saying that this is how it is going to play out but if certain things happen what follows could be a likely scenario.

Let’s start in mid July.

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Obama can’t pick Biden because he looks like a crook, and at the same time looks like he should be on the top of the ticket instead of Obama.

He can’t pick Sebelius, because any woman except Hillary would send Democrat women into a frenzy, plus she gave a response to the state of the Union that could have been given by a skeleton robot.

He shouldn’t pick a General or Sam Nunn because the overwhelming compensation for his lack of experience will shine through.

He can pick Kaine, but it would be a big mistake because it would result in a no experience ticket.

Bayh or Jack Reed seem most logical. Both have experience but don’t come off as Washington insiders. Though I don’t think Reed offers any electoral help, while Bayh could get Clinton’s people on board, which could translate into Clinton voters for Obama.

Hillary? At this point, why not?

Darkhorse pick that would make a lot of sense. Senator Ken Salazaar from Colorado. Why? He is from a swing state that Obama needs, plus Salazaar won there in 2004 not the best Democrat year. He is Hispanic which could instantly increase Obama’s Hispanic support. His brother is a Congressman from another Colorado district to help at the grassroots level to win CO. And finally he has been in the Senate for since 2004 without spending half of that time campaigning for the White House, so while he doesn’t have an abundance of experience he is not a newcomer, and he was Attorney General of Colorado for 6. Experience without D.C. He won’t pick him most likely but all and all and interesting choice.

Finally, its probably going to be Bayh

After proof reading this it seems like every candidate should be on the top of Obama’s ticket. I mean even Ken Salazaar who many would consider under experienced to be President spent 6 years before the Senate running a Statewide Justice Department while Obama spent his time organizing communities(doing nothing) and being a State Senator (which only requires a pulse, and some corrupt Chicago pols on your side).

I posted back on June 19th that Obama was wrong in thinking he had a chance to win Mississippi in November because his argument was based on false facts. He claimed that Mississippi was 40% black but only voted as 25% of the population. This was his rationale for putting the state in play; if he could just get African Americans to vote their proportion of the population he would have a 40% built in head start. The problem was, and is, that Mississippi is only 36% black and made up 34% of the voting population in 2004. Meaning Obama’s plan to turn them out to vote their proportion would mean just a 2% increase, hardly enough to flip a 20 point Bush State.

Moving on to Evangelicals Obama’s team encounters the same problem; he claims he can win over many evangelicals but by definition these people he intends to win over hardly seem to be the evangelicals he needs, if evangelicals at all.

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As a dog owner this is a sad story for me, but at the same time I can’t help to be completely infuriated. A young man and his girlfriend were speeding down a highway in Texas trying to rush their dying dog to a vet clinic in time to save his or her life. Well, along came the highway patrol to pull them over for speeding (which is completely reasonable) after the car pulled over at the police’s request the man driving jumped out of the car screaming and explained to the officer that their dog was choking and he needed to get him to the vet hospital.

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It has amazed me as to how much Republican politicians, analysts, and pundits continue to concede the point that this is a Democratic year and we will be lucky if we make it out of this election with some dignity.

The reason its amazing is because it’s just not true!

Republicans better start acting like winners, and start showing the American people why their ideas and beliefs are the only way to pull the U.S. out of this so-called malaise.

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I don’t know if this has been mentioned yet but it is the first I am hearing about it. The Gang of 10 which include 5 Republican Senators and 5 Democrat Senators have angered conservatives by adopting an energy policy proposal that is everything Nancy Pelosi wants with a sprinkle of drilling for Republicans. It is a slap in the face against all of the conservative House members who have been working so hard to have the American people identify Republicans with solving the energy problem by drilling. Where does the corruption come in?

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Off of the top of my head the Georgian-Russian conflict has taught us a few lessons and exposed to us a few truths.

Number 1 is that sometimes countries don’t always listen to what we say or do what we ask. President Bush has told Russia to draw back their troops to the contested territories and yet Russia has refused. Now I’m not 100 percent sure how Barack Obama would ask Putin and the Russians any differently than our current President did, but the notion that just sitting down and talking to our enemies will solve international conflicts has just been blown out of the water.

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Thats the slogan that is on the bumper sticker that adorns my car and I can’t explain how sincere that thank you really is.

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Driving around the suburbs of New York City gas is very expensive, the price of gas at 4.25 a gallon doesn’t catch many New Yorkers eyes as it would say in Maryland or North Carolina.( where on a recent vacation I saw gas as cheap as 3.62) The high prices are starting to have an affect on how people view driving. For example my mom points out how she fills up her Toyota Corolla less often then her old Nissan Pathfinder, and my girlfriend’s dad is looking to buy a small car in addition to his truck to drive around when not on a construction job. But to conservatives this behavior should be expected, I mean we are always saying the markets will work, and this is an example of how demand goes down when price goes up.

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