Is there any recent polling that matches him up against Minnick? You’d think that Idaho should be our turf, but Minnick has been smart about his votes. If we don’t get rid of him now, he may stay there a LONG time.

Raul Labrador didn’t win last night. It was more of Ward imploding. Ward was touted by the NRCC as a rising GOP star. But a series of gaffes sunk him despite having more money than Labrador. Minnick is proving to to a tough opponent, He raised more than $1 million and has the Tea Party Express behind him!

Labrador had trouble raising money in the primary. It will be a tough race. Minnick is not Vaugh Ward.

There is much to be said of Vaughn Ward’s monumental implosion, but Raul Labrador was the conservative candidate. This is a very conservative district that has a history of voting for some of the most conservative members of Congress over the past 50 years: Jim McClure, Steve Symms, Larry Craig, Helen Chenoweth, Butch Otter, Bill Sali.

Bill Sali’s defeat was a convergence of factors: a) he barely won a quarter of the vote in a 6-way fractured primary, b) he won the general election against a fairly liberal candidate by only 5% in one of the most Republican districts in the country, c) there was no love lost between him and some power-players in the Idaho GOP establishment (Bruce Newcomb, Mike Simpson, etc) d) he had a tendency to seek out media attention which was often spun negatively at home, e) in 2008 he had to run with Obama at the top of the ticket that brought a lot of Boise liberals to the polls for the closest presidential election in Ada County in modern history, f) he ran against a former Republican and successful business man in Walt Minnick.

The only factor that Raul Labrador shares with Bill Sali is that he is running against a former Republican and successful business man….but now that former Republican has voted for Pelosi for Speaker, supports eliminating “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”, etc. It wont be a cake walk for Labrador. He has no money. He is Hispanic (Puerto Rican when most Idaho Hispanics are of Mexican decent and only make up 7+% of the population). He is a Mormon and the Idaho Mormon population is concentrated in the 2nd District. Idaho has a long history of anti-Mormonism, particularly in the 1st District. In short, Labrador is a solid conservative like Bill Sali but without his baggage. Labrador’s only establishment “enemy” is Butch Otter because he opposed Otter’s big-spending road plan–and Otter’s support is pretty weak because people view him as having gone soft on his life-long libertarian/conservative views.

Finally, Idahoan do not appreciate being told who to vote for. They repudiated the establishment support of Sali in 2008, they repudiated Sarah Palin’s support of Vaughn Ward a few weeks ago and they will repudiate this Tea Party Express group’s endorsement of Walt Minnick.