But, as you’re not really debating the points I’ve made, I’m moving on.

There seems to be a recurring theme, that if we can just manage to get our butts kicked badly enough this round, that will set us up for some smashing victory down the road.

There were at least a few I saw in 2006 who thought a Democratic victory in Congress would teach wayward Republican congresscritters a lesson, and with Democrats in power the public would see them for who they really are. That supposedly would result in invigorated Republicans storming to victory in 2008. And then a few pushed similar silliness in 2008.

Now with Democrats firmly in control, we’re tempted to pat ourselves on the back for a “great victory” whenever the damage Democrats inflict can be limited to something better the worst case scenario.

Sure I’m glad that another huge “stimulus” probably can’t happen, but the first one already has locked into place long term damage to our economy that will take many years undo. Sure, McCain probably would have appointed some airhead squish to the Supreme Court, but I still would have preferred that to Sotomayor.

Defeating Obamacare now is the best chance, far better than hoping to undo it later.

The problem with the mentality of “Lets get our butts kicked now so we can win big later” is that later keeps getting deferred, and we keep seeming to need more butt-kickings under that theory.

Obama, Dems Prepare to Move Against American People on Health Care

Based on this, a 30-35 seat gain is probably about the minimum that I’m expecting (provided present trends hold up).
(And it’ll be more than that if Rasumussen’s Generic Ballot holds up as R+5 or more by election day…)

The Senate is a whole other kettle of fish that I’m not going to even try to make any judgment on until next Spring, at the earliest…

In this scenario, Obama would be trying to veto a bill that cuts off funding for a program that is ALREADY UNPOPULAR.

If Obama shuts down the government over that, he’ll be looking at 15% popularity ratings in no time flat, and a permanent protest rally outside the White House.

I *dare* him to try that.

You can spout all this purist cant, but that sort of purism assures that there are only a handful of districts in the Country where you could get elected and those attitudes assure that if you held an elected or appointed executive position, you’d have a short and unhappy career.

At best I predict about twenty two seat pick up in the house, and maybe four Senators, not enough to really change the Democratic majorities but enough to make their attempts to change the country a lot harder.

Yeah, I know, the constituencies who keep electing the likes of Barney Frank and John Kerry are really dying to elect a Republican, but have been voting Democratic only because the Republican nominees haven’t been conservative enough. And if we could just get a true conservative as a Republican nominee for Senate in Maine, maybe we could flip that seat from Democrat to Republican.

Become a Republican Party precinct committeeman now.

50 per cent of the PC slots nationwide are unfilled.

Moderates control about 50 per cent of the elected slots, Conservatives the other half.

Want to change that?

Become a PC NOW. Get into the real ball game.

Or stay on the sidelines as a bench warmer.

Thank you.

ColdWarrior

www.theprecinctproject.wordpress. com

So is that what you base your claim on, that you think the Republicans will have 67 Senate seats and 290 House seats in 2011 if Obamacare passes now?

No, don’t count on many “moderate” Democrats voting to repeal Obamacare after the 2010 election, In any major election sweep, the centrists/moderates/squishes of the losing party, i.e. the ones in districts/states that are at least somewhat competitive, are mostly the ones being displaced by winners of the other party. That dynamic is why the current Democratic majority has a hard time finding even a dozen Republicans to support their bills (while struggling to keep a larger number of their own squishes from defecting).

If we get a big win in 2010, most of the Democrats you have any hope of voting Republican will have been replaced by Republicans. To get the 2/3 vote to override Obama’s veto, it will have to be done almost exclusively with Republican Senators and Representatives.

Also, nightmare scenario (just typing aloud), picture a 2nd term BO with a majority. Point taken.

My original point was only that if the Dems pass this with no GOP crossover votes, and bare minimum majorities (losing even most of their own Dem “centrists” in the Congress on the vote), that the “this will never be repealed” meme goes right out the window – the people will *demand* that it be repealed under those circumstances. The Obamacare program will never even be implemented under that scenario – it’ll be strangled in the crib.

(And for those that doubt this – look up the catastrophic medical plans that the Dems attempted to pass in 1988 & 1994. Never heard of them? Well, that right there tells you that not all government programs that are passed end up being eternal…)

Personally, I’m pissed that this country is having this discussion at ALL.

Let us lock shields now however, dig in our boots, and push with all our heart. Let us move the Overton window as far right as possible.

Congressional districts are so gerrymandered into guaranteed Democratic and Republican seats, that the number of seats that can swing to either party in even the most sweeping landslide is extremely limited. In a very optimistic scenario, we could win a significant majority in the House (but not much better than 1994), and maybe a slight majority in the Senate given what seats are up for election this cycle.

But there’s no way we would have enough to repeal Obamacare, requiring 2/3 votes in both houses voting to override Obama’s veto. The most we could do is try to starve the program by not appropriating as much money as it needs.

But that tactic is tailor made for Democratic media spin. We’d see sob stories of suffering ladies on Obamacare needing a hip replacement or their arthritis medicine, but having to suffer excruciating pain because those heartless Republicans won’t appropriate the money. Eventually Republicans in swing districts and purple states (i.e. the ones who flipped the congress from Dem. to Rep.) would buckle under the pressure and vote the money to let the poor suffering lady get the treatment she needs.

The best chance is holding our ground, stopping Obamacare now. Failure now makes any attempt to take back the lost ground a much longer shot.