True, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. But if a polling sample is a true predictor (which any random sample greater than 900 data points should be withing a reasonable confidence level) of the universe that it should represent, then that difference is already accounted for. In other words, there is no need to weight a sample for that which it should already reflect. Those polling organizations who do weigh their samples to “account” for a greater number of Democrats are actually severely distorting the results.

The PPP poll is an outlier compared to the more accuate and respected polls I mentioned. And as I pointed out in my diary, it goes against the trend that Gov. Palin’s favorables have followed since November of last year.

Interesting choice of words – “rehab” – for “a big Palin fan” to use. The governor is doing exactly what she needs to be doing – taking care of business in Alaska and getting her ducks in a row. Would mentoring by someone who knows the issues well (such as Fred Thompson) benefit her? Surely. But doing one’s homework is a far cry from being in need of rehab.

- JP

Having been a ground pounder, telephone voice and an outreach coordinator during the McCain/Palin campaign, I can assure you that more people were enthusiastic about her than him. It was not uncommon to hear comments such as “Can’t we put her at the top of the ticket?”, “I am voting for him because of her.” and other support found for this woman. The rally numbers also speak for themselves. Whenever she was at a rally, the crowds grew. So don’t think she doesn’t have public support.

I just clicked on this “poll” through the link at AOL and had to chuckle since the response by AOL members discredited the headline in its entirity. My point about reflecting current public sentiment is since when has the media accurately reflected current public sentiment on anything that does fit their own agendas?

The left can spend all their time screeching about Palin, I hope they knock themselves out doing it. If she chooses to run in 2012 (which I truly, truly, truly hope she does) all the whining and screeching will be old news and they will look like bitter little people rehashing nasty, petty stupidity.

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

http://tinyurl.com/58ha9z

Rasmussen and Pew were the most accurate. PPP didn’t even make the cut.

In the polling for the Wisconsin Democrat presidential primary, Jonathan Singer wrote, “… as I’ve noted before PPP doesn’t have the best track record thus far in the primaries (in fact it seems to have one of the worst)….”
http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/18/132412/242

Berwood Yost of of The Floyd Institute’s Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College wrote of PPP’s polling inaccuracy in the Pennsylvania Democrat primary, “Three of the four polls conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP) were biased and all were biased toward Obama.”
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/predictive_accuracy_of_the_200.php

Bob Orr wrote, “PPP’s sage, Tom Jensen, active democrat, recently did a series of articles, published by papers around the state giving his analysis of the governor’s race and who was doing what and why. This kid and PPP have a political agenda, and the mainstream media acts like the poll was performed by the twelve disciples. Oh, by the way, the Associated Press doesn’t report PPP’s results because it only reports polls that they consider reliable.”
http://www.blogorr08.com/2008/01/you-can-fool-all-of-people-some-of-time.html

- JP

1. This is a Democratic pollster. Democrats will quit hiring them if they can’t be trusted to produce good numbers. One thing candidates do not want are cooked polls – those are useless. Now with this poll, where there isn’t any real election at stake, there could be a desire to play around, but still, for the most part reputations for accuracy and good polling are vital to all pollsters.

2. Stan Greenberg is one of the most respected pollsters in Washington. He’s a high quality professional.

3. Other recent polls, such as this CBS/NYT poll earlier this month, have shown Democrats with a 10 point advantage in voter identification. A 44-33 spread sounds about right to me, based on history and recent election results.

4 & 5. You don’t like the results. That hardly makes it bogus. Pollsters tend to get different results, especially on hypotheticals such as this one. Greenberg’s numbers shown Palin’s negatives within the margin of error of both the polls you cite to say Greenberg is clearly wrong. The only real difference is that Greenberg finds lower favorables for Gov. Palin. That doesn’t strike me as so radical a difference to support the claims you make.

6. Doesn’t mean the numbers are wrong. But you do correctly point up the dangers of letting polling drive candidate selection, forgetting that there will be a campaign, eventually. My own sense is that if an Obama/Palin election were held today, Obama would win handily. I’m a big Palin fan, and I think she was treated horribly unfairly in the last election. But the reality is what it is – she’s got a lot of rehab to do, and given her young age, my sense is she’d do best to win re-election, serve out her second term, and wait for 2016 or later.

I think this poll has Palin’s present situation just about right. What it points up is that a) Palin may not be our most electable candidate in 2012, and that b) to claim that mantle, she has some work to do. This poll is like any other poll – a snapshot of where we are today. Fortunately, there’s lots of time to change the situation, and the Administration is making a hash of things fast. But if you want to get where you’re going, you have to be honest about where you are. This poll looks pretty honest – part of the mosaic, along with other polls that may be more favorable to Palin in particular or Republicans in general, not to mention all the other bits of info out there.

What’s more, they are so lacking in confidence in their results that they think to scour the web for criticism of their results and attempt to defend themselves. I guess they figure their readers aren’t smart enough to decide whether to trust their results or the “deluded wingers” here.

People who post blogs like that on behalf of a polling firm cannot be taken seriously as professionals reporting any kind of “facts.” The whole thing has no credibility. I guess we shouldn’t be surprised the AP reports this as though it did. Of course, I don’t think PPP ever has been a very reputable polling firm. I haven’t seen their track record for REAL elections, but I’m betting it’s quite poor.

The question and its timing are also a problem, and that’s where the real “delusion” lies. It’s one thing to question favorability. It’s another to make an “election” after we just had one and to include a candidate who has likely never even thought about running. The responses are no more than an approval rating with no possible basis in reality. It’s not even a remotely realistic question, and it is of no practical use to anyone. How about asking about real candidates in real upcoming elections.

While it is true the percentage of Democrats among voters is significantly higher than that of Republicans, I doubt that it is as high as they make it. More significantly, I don’t believe for a second that there are that few independents compared to Democrats.

You’re right that this poll is years to early to be meaningful, but unless you can convince Nate Silver to write an article denouncing it, I’m going to believe that it reflects current public sentiment within a few points.

PPP polls were denounced by right-wing bloggers during the election and they turned out to be accurate then; you’ll have to do more than run through the same set of arguments to convince me (or a lot of other people) that they are somehow wrong now.

Contrast the crass insensitivity and arrogance of Obama, clearly indicated by his comment on Leno, with the class of Sarah Palin.

Clearly the Left noted her appeal, and are out to eliminate the threat- and her treatment last Fall was pure character assasination. Liberals’ double-standard sexism is appalling; she’s “dumb” because she’s a happy and attractive Christian, who enjoys being a mother? Real feminists need to be angry, wear combat boots, no make-up, short hair, and live alone in a studio apartment in the East Village? She’s not the right kind of example because she doesn’t support affirmative action… but instead went out there and just kicked butt?

Democrats are plenty afraid of Palin coming-back at them in 2012 with a dynamic and complementary VP like Bobby Jindal… or visa versa. And they have plenty of reason to fear her. Palin is the most popular governor in the country… are all those people idiots? Alaska was a pretty corrupt system until she stepped in. Her reforms took on entrenched politicians (inc. Republicans), a mafioso-style union boss, and Big Oil.

Wouldn’t it have been nice if Obama had been principled and brave enough to confront the corrupt Chicago Democratic Machine? Or shady political operators like Tony Rezko? Racist preachers? Instead of doing business with every last one of them?

Even though others campaigned for Saxby Chambliss in GA last December, Sarah was brought in as the heavy-hitter to close the deal… as she did on the way to a vital GOP victory. Chambliss said, re. campaigning with Palin: “We packed the houses everywhere we went. And it really did allow us to peak and get our base fired up.” He went-on to call her “dynamite”-

Chambliss heaped praise on Palin, saying she has a “great future” in the GOP, adding that “I can’t overstate the impact she had down here”. Said the Senator- “All these folks did a great job coming in”… but when she (Palin) walks in a room, folks just explode.”

So, the DNC’s friends will be discrediting Palin and claiming condescendingly that she is a “joke” for the next couple years- precisely because they know the opposite to be true. She has been highly successful in life while ignoring the left-wing feminist model… this helps to explain the extra dose of venom in the attacks.

Go get em, Sarah- and don’t mind the press, nobody will be listening to them anymore after the pending Obamamania implosion.

http://reaganiterepublicanresistance.blogspot.com/2008/11/palinjindal-2012.html

Sarah and the rest of us will overthrow the Fake King when the day of reckoning comes forth.