The rise of Bachmann, the emergence of Perry, the presence of Palin, and the slippage of Cain & Pawlenty.

Thanks to all RedStaters who participated in the late June 2011 Primary Preference Poll – Pick 5.

LEGALESE:  The following results are descriptive statistics about the set of RedStaters who followed directions when participating in the poll (no hanging chads considered here).  This is not a scientific poll. This is not generalizable beyond the description of the participants…  But it is fun and a bit intriguing, if I say so myself.  Thanks for participating! Please look to participate in the next survey:  likely sometime in August.

METHODOLOGY:  RedStaters were invited to participate in a one-minute survey (through SurveyMonkey) to indicate their 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th picks for the Republican presidential nomination from among the following candidate options (alphabetical order):  Michele Bachmann, John Bolton, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.  NOTE:  I did not foresee Thaddeus McCotter announcing his candidacy.  Thus, the potential for his support at this time was not registered.  Nothing against Rep. McCotter, but at this stage in the process, I do not see this omission as significantly impacting these results…

I am happy to announce that participation grew from the inaugural poll in May (105 responses yielding a sample size of 102) to the June (June 26–July 2) polling set of 147 responses (yielding a sample size of 146).  I hope we continue to grow RedStater participation as the primary season heats up!

For a review of May’s results, see here.

For the 146 who accurately participated in their preference submissions, the first choice of participating RedStaters was:

Top Choice results:

But what happens if Sarah Palin doesn’t run?

Using the 2^nd choice of those whose first choice was Sarah Palin, the candidates who gain from her absence are:

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Sarah Palin gives us the following Top Choice results:

But what happens if Rick Perry doesn’t run (but Sarah Palin does)?

Using the 2^nd choice of those whose first choice was Rick Perry, the candidates who gain from his absence are:

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Rick Perry gives us the following Top Choice results:

But what happens if neither Sarah Palin nor Rick Perry run?

Using the 2^nd (and sometimes 3^rd) choice of those whose preferences were Sarah Palin and/or Rick Perry, the candidates who gain from their absences are:

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without both Sarah Palin and Rick Perry gives us the following Top Choice results:

Cutting the data some additional ways to consider the possibilities…

Liked (or at least considered) by many:

Who, among the 146 respondents, did they name as being in their Top 2, Top 3, Top 4, or Top 5?

[Main takeaway:  Sarah Palin’s Top Choice support is strong but additional support is not wide-spread.  Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry have the widest appeal among RedStaters at this time.  Herman Cain and Tim Pawlenty rise as Sarah Palin fades.]

Named in Top 2:

Named in Top 3:

Named in Top 4:

Named in Top 5:

2^nd Preferences of supporters of candidate X:

We saw how Sarah Palin and Rick Perry supporters in this survey would move if they were not in.

Who are the 2^nd choices of some of the other candidates’ supporters?

Those who chose Michele Bachmann (25 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Tim Pawlenty (15 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Mitt Romney (12 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Herman Cain (6 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Ron Paul (6 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose John Bolton (4 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Rick Santorum (4 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Jon Huntsman (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Gary Johnson (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Newt Gingrich (1 voter) also liked (2^nd choice):

Iterative Elimination:

What happens to the results when the lowest vote getters are systematically removed such that their 2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th choices must come into play?

Based on the Top Choice results, Gingrich is the first candidate eliminated due to being the lowest vote-getter.

Top Choice Results (Round 2):

Based on the results of Round 2, the lowest vote-getters – Huntsman and Johnson – are eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 3):

Based on the results of Round 3, the lowest vote-getter (Santorum) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 4):

Based on the results of Round 4, the lowest vote-getter (Bolton) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 5):

Based on the results of Round 5, the lowest vote-getters – Cain and Paul – are eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 6):

Based on the results of Round 6, the lowest vote-getter (Romney) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 7):

Based on the results of Round 7, the lowest vote-getter (Pawlenty) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 8):

Based on the results of Round 8, the lowest vote-getter (Palin) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 9):  (FINAL RESULT!!)

But my candidate wasn’t in there!?!?

I know, I know…  I’ll get Thad McCotter in there next time.  That sneaky fellow!

I’ll try to keep an eye out for other potential candidates as well…

Thanks and Invitation

If you were one of the 146, thanks for your participation!  If you weren’t, I hope you will participate in the next Primary Preference Poll.  The next poll is likely to launch sometime in August.  Keep an eye out for it!