Thanks to all RedStaters who participated in the inaugural Primary Preference Poll – Pick 4.

LEGALESE:  The following results are descriptive statistics about the set of RedStaters who followed directions when participating in the poll (no hanging chads considered here).  This is not a scientific poll.  This is not generalizable beyond the description of the participants…  But it is fun and a bit intriguing, if I say so myself.  Thanks for participating!  Please look to participate in the next survey:  likely mid-late June.

Redstaters were invited to participate in a one-minute survey (through SurveyMonkey) to indicate their first, second, third and fourth picks for the Republican presidential nomination from among the following candidate options (alphabetical order):  Michele Bachmann, John Bolton, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.

Of 105 responses received during the week of May 22-28, 2011, the vast majority (102) followed the directions for inclusion in the poll results.  (For the 3, next time please do not enter the same name for two different placements).  For the n=102, the first choice of participating RedStaters was:

Top Choice results:

But what happens if Sarah doesn’t run?

Using the 2^nd choice of those whose first choice was Sarah Palin, the candidates who gain from her absence are:

[For these Redstaters, Sarah Palin’s entry would take out almost all of the oxygen in the room for Bachmann, Bolton and Santorum – and lessen the first choice appeal of Cain.]

Adjusting the results to reflect the race without Sarah gives us the following Top Choice results:

Let’s cut the data some additional ways to consider the possibilities… 

Liked (or at least considered) by many:

Who, among the 102 respondents, did they name as being in their Top 2, Top 3, or Top 4?

Named in Top 2:

Named in Top 3:

Named in Top 4:

2^nd Preferences of supporters of candidate X:

We saw how Sarah supporters in this survey would move if she was not in.

Who are the 2^nd choices of some of the other candidates’ supporters?

Those who chose Herman Cain (29 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Tim Pawlenty (24 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Mitt Romney (6 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Michele Bachmann (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Jon Huntsman (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Gary Johnson (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose Ron Paul (3 voters) also liked (2^nd choice):

Those who chose John Bolton (1 voter) also liked (2^nd choice):

Iterative Elimination:

What happens to the results when the lowest vote getters are systematically removed such that their 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th choices must come into play? 

Based on the Top Choice results, Gingrich and Santorum are automatically eliminated due to receiving no Top Choice votes.  Round 2 is conducted based on also eliminating Bolton as the lowest vote-getter.

Top Choice Results (Round 2):

Based on the results of Round 2, the lowest vote-getters – Bachmann, Huntsman, Johnson and Paul – are eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 3):

Based on the results of Round 3, the lowest vote-getter (Romney) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 4):

Based on the results of Round 4, the lowest vote-getter (Pawlenty) is eliminated:

Top Choice Results (Round 5):

But my candidate wasn’t in there!?!?

I know, I know…  Who to include?  Who to exclude?  Due to this concern, I did have an extra question regarding who should have been included on the survey list.  Results:

I will take this feedback (combined with upcoming news reports and prospective candidate announcements) into account in future survey activity.

Thanks and Invitation

If you were one of the 102, thanks for your participation!

If you weren’t, I hope you will participate in the next Primary Preference Poll – Pick 4.  The next poll is likely to launch sometime during the week of June 19^th.   Keep an eye out for it!