A new poll conducted by Magellan Strategies and released at the Louisiana conservative blog, The Hayride, shows Donald Trump ahead of Ted Cruz, who’s in a distant second. Marco Rubio in this poll does not meet the 20% threshold to gain delegates from Louisiana, which holds its primary on Saturday.

According to the poll, Trump has a 41-21 lead over Cruz, with Rubio at 15. That would be a big loss to Cruz, who entered Super Tuesday hoping to pick up a large portion of the south, long considered his best chance to perform well in this primary season. The Trump campaign, however, won over southerners, evangelicals, and those outraged at Washington D.C., effectively taking the wind from the Cruz campaign so far.

The Hayride-Magellan poll shows that Trump beats Cruz in every category except the 18-34 age group, which Cruz leads 28-27.

This, interestingly enough, contrasts strongly with the caucus that was held recently to determine who Louisiana’s delegates were going to be. Via Kevin Boyd at The Hayride:

While no delegates were allocated last night, it is interesting to see which candidates drew the most votes.

Here’s how the results turned out:

Ted Cruz: 45.4%
Donald Trump: 30.1%
Marco Rubio: 17.2%
John Kasich: 5%
Ben Carson: 2.1%

Is this what Saturday’s vote total will look like? Probably not.

However, what’s interesting about the caucus is that it is ultimately a test of organization and intensity. The Cruz campaign in Louisiana has lots of both. It’s also the campaign that has spent the most time here.

Louisiana is a closed primary state, which some had expected would have drastically different results for Trump, who could rely easily on crossover voting. The Hayride-Magellan poll, however, indicates that Trump has a stronger grip on base voters than some may have hoped…