Promoted from the diaries by Brian Faughnan.

Senate Update

Arkansas: Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) received bad news from a Public Policy Polling survey (8/21-24; 784 registered Arkansas voters). Against three virtually unknown candidates, Lincoln scores virtually even with them, and well below 50%. Paired with state Senator Gilbert Baker (R), Lincoln trails 42-40%; with businessman Curtis Coleman (R), Lincoln’s deficit is one point, 41-40%; against Afghan War veteran Tom Cotton (R), Lincoln takes the barest of leads, 40-39%. this is a surprising GOP conversion opportunity.

Colorado: Despite leading appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 42-39% in the latest Public Policy Polling study (8/14-16; 969 Colorado registered voters), former Rep. and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez (R) announced he would not run for the Senate. Former Lt. Governor Jane Norton (R) is telling media outlets and supporters that she will decide about her own candidacy in 30 days. Aurora at-large city Councilman Ryan Frazier and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck are the two official GOP candidates.

Illinois: Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (D) announced that he will challenge state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson in the Democratic Senatorial primary. Hoffman immediately hired Barack Obama consultant David Axelrod to plan his campaign. Republican Rep. Mark Kirk has the inside track to the GOP nomination.

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Senate Update

California: As expected, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) announced that she is forming an exploratory committee to determine her viability against leftist Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

Colorado: Public Policy Polling (8/14-16; 969 registered CO voters) again is reporting unfavorable numbers for appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Sporting a poor 31:38% favorable to unfavorable job approval ratio, Bennet trails former GOP Rep. Bob Beauprez 42-39%. He leads Aurora at-large City Councilman Ryan Frazier (R) 38-33% and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) 39-35%.

Florida (appointment): Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is narrowing down his list of prospective appointees to vacating Sen. Mel Martinez’s seat. Since Crist is running himself, he needs a person who will only serve as a caretaker for the final 17 months of the term. Surprisingly, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL-21) appeared on the list, but removed himself from consideration in order to remain in the House. Rep. Bill Young (R-FL-10), who is serving his 39th year in Congress, is also being mentioned. Young, 78, has already announced his intention to seek re-election to a 16th consecutive term in the House. Former Attorney General Jim Smith (R) and ex-US Attorney Bob Martinez (R) are also reported to be on Crist’s short list.

Florida (election): Two new Florida polls were just released. Rasmussen Reports (8/17; 1,000 likely FL voters; 470 Republicans) gives Gov. Charlie Crist a 53-31% lead over former FL House Speaker Marco Rubio in the Republican primary. Crist would lead Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17) 48-29% in a hypothetical general election. Rubio leads Meek by a similar 43-30%. Quinnipiac University (8/12-17; 1,136 registered FL voters) scores the GOP primary at 55-26%, Crist over Rubio, but did not poll the general election. For the first time, Quinnipiac detected President Obama’s job approval rating going into negative numbers. This particular Florida sample rated him 47:48% favorable to unfavorable. While the sample supports, 58-36%, the notion of a government health insurance program, by a margin of 35-62%, they oppose enacting a healthcare reform package in Congress that is supported only by Democrats.

Illinois: Chicago businessman Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., announced that he would not run for either Senator or Governor next year. This means the Democratic field will likely narrow to only two major candidates: state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson. The winner of the early February 2nd primary will almost assuredly face GOP Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10), who leads both Democrats in early polling. The 8/11 Rasmussen Reports survey (a small sample of 500 IL registered voters) has Kirk ahead of Giannoulias 41-38%; and leading Jackson 47-30%.

Kentucky: Survey USA just finished polling the Blue Grass State (8/15-17; 1,944 registered KY voters; 516 Republicans; 647 Democrats) and found GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson leading both major Democratic candidates. Grayson tops Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, the 2004
Senatorial nominee against retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R), 46-40%, and leads Attorney General Jack Conway (D) 44-37%. In the primaries, Grayson leads Rand Paul, son of US Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) and former presidential candidate, 37-26% on the Republican side. For the Democrats, Mongiardo enjoys a 39-31% lead over Conway.

House Update

FL-8: Florida House Speaker Larry Cretul is indicating that he will not challenge freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D). Republicans are not without a stable of candidates here, though, as former House Speaker and Senate Republican Leader Dan Webster and Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty remain possible candidates.

IL-10: Moderate Republican state Rep. Beth Coulson will announce her congressional candidacy on August 24. Her presence in the race gives the Republicans a shot at keeping one of their most marginal seats. Rep. Mark Kirk (R) is vacating to run for the Senate. Democrats have 2006-8 nominee Dan Seals, state Rep. Julie Hamos, and attorney Elliot Richardson.

IN-3: Dr. Tom Hayhurst (D), who challenged conservative Rep. Mark Souder (R) in 2006 (losing 54-46%), announced that he would seek a re-match in 2010. Last election, Democratic nominee Mike Montagano lost to Souder 55-40%, in what was originally touted as a competitive race. Souder, now tested in two consecutive elections, will begin this next campaign as the prohibitive favorite. The Congressman was originally elected in 1994.

MO-4: State Sen. Bill Stouffer filed congressional exploratory committee papers with the Federal Election Commission this week. Stouffer would represent the first significant challenge House Armed Services Committee chairman Ike Skelton (D) has faced in 28 years. Skelton, originally elected in 1976, has averaged 68.3% of the vote over 17 elections. The district is becoming increasingly Republican, however. John McCain scored a 61-38% victory over President Obama here last November.

NC-8: Former Rep. Robin Hayes (R) announced he would not seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D), the man who beat him last November. Republicans are hoping to recruit 2008 gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory into the congressional race.

PA-6: Two potentially strong Democratic candidates announced they would not seek the open congressional seat (Rep. Jim Gerlach running for Governor). State Sen. Andy Dinniman, commonly viewed as the Democrats’ strongest candidate, and 2008 nominee Bob Roggio now both say they won’t run for Congress in 2010. Former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer Doug Pike, at this point in time, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. State Rep. Curt Schroder and Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello are announced Republican candidates.

Governor Update

Florida: The previously referenced Quinnipiac poll (see Florida Senate election) gives GOP Attorney General Bill McCollum a 38-34% lead over Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink on the gubernatorial ballot test question.

Nevada: Federal Judge Brian Sandoval (R) announced that he will resign his seat on the bench in all likelihood to run for Governor. GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons faces martial difficulties, scandal, and big budget problems, which have driven his hard re-elect score to 11%. Rory Reid, son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and a Clark County Commissioner, is a possible Democratic candidate.

Pennsylvania: Montgomery County Commissioner and former US Congressman Joe Hoeffel (D-PA-13) is confirming that he is commissioning a poll to test his viability in the Governor’s race. The liberal Hoeffel vacated his congressional seat in 2004 to challenge then-Republican US Senator Arlen Specter, and was beaten 53-42%. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, state Auditor Jack Wagner, and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox are the leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Attorney General Tom Corbett and Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6) are the top Republicans in the race.

South Carolina: House Minority Leader Harry Ott (D) ended his gubernatorial campaign this week and endorsed state Sen. Vince Sheheen in the Democratic primary. Scandal-tainted Gov. Mark Sanford (R) is term-limited. Republicans will have a crowded primary, but the eventual run-off winner will be the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

Texas: Austin kooky liberal state Sen. Kirk Watson (D) announced that he will not run for Governor next year in order to seek re-election to his legislative post. Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison are doing battle for the Republican nomination. Former Ambassador to both Japan and Australia Tom Schieffer (D), brother of CBS news correspondent Bob Schieffer, and country singer Kinky Friedman are the only Democrats officially in the race. The eventual Republican nominee will be the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

Virginia: The Washington Post released the results of their Taylor Nelson Sofres poll (8/11-14; 1,002 VA adults) and they too peg Republican Bob McDonnell to a large lead over Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds. According to the poll, 54% of those surveyed would support McDonnell compared to 39% who favor Deeds. Surprisingly, by a margin of 47-45%, people generally believe the Commonwealth of Virginia is on the right track. Most state surveys are
showing heavy majorities believing things have gotten seriously off course. The Washington Post poll is the fifth consecutive study that gives McDonnell the lead.

Wisconsin: Gov. Jim Doyle (D) will soon announce that he will not seek a third term in office. Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton becomes the early leader among Democrats, but it is unlikely that
she will have a free ride on the Democratic side. Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI-3) is telling supporters he is considering a gubernatorial run. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Rep. Mark Neumann are battling for the Republican nomination. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI-1) announced he will stay out of the Governor’s race and seek re-election to the US House. The open Governor’s race remains in the Toss-up column for the next election.

Senate Update

Illinois: As expected, Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson, the first female ever to hold the position, officially announced her campaign for US Senate. She will oppose state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in the Democratic primary, scheduled for an early February 2nd. Appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D), who previously said he would not seek a full term in 2010, now humorously says he has not completely closed the door on a run of his own. The Democratic winner will almost assuredly face Republican Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10) in the general election. Both the Democratic primary and the November campaign will be highly competitive.

Kansas: A new Survey USA poll (8/7-9; 471 likely KS Republican voters) posts Rep. Jerry Moran (R-KS-1) to a 38-32% lead over fellow Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS-4) in their battle against each other for the Republican Senatorial nomination. This poll, as all prior surveys have done, forecasts a close race for the August 3, 2010 primary. The winner replaces Sen. Sam Brownback (R), who will be Governor.

Nevada: Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV-2) publicly stated that he will not challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) next year, but Nevada Republican Party chair Sue Lowden may. A new Vitale & Associates poll, financed by friends and supporters of Lowden who are unofficially drafting her into the race, gives the former Miss America contestant a 48-42% over Reid. The Senator’s favorable rating dropped to 39%, according to this same poll. The Leader is no stranger to close elections; three of his four victories have been with 48, 50, and 51% of the vote. Reid will definitely be on the ropes in this situation.

New York: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) has apparently dodged a competitive primary challenge. Both Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY-14) and Jose Serrano (D-NY-16) announced that they would not run for the Senate next year. The news is particularly surprising in Maloney’s case because she was actively taking steps to prepare for the race. Previously, Reps. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY-4) and Steve Israel (D-NY-2) had stated they would run, only to back away. Barring a strong primary challenger coming out of the political woodwork, Gillibrand will be in strong re-election position.

Pennsylvania: A new Rasmussen Reports poll (8/11; 1,000 likely PA voters) shows former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA-15) with a 48-36% advantage, marking the first time the Republican has claimed the lead against turncoat Sen Arlen Specter (D). Toomey also has the advantage over Specter’s Democratic primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7), 43-35%. This is the first poll taken after the highly publicized Specter town hall meetings that have featured hundreds of angry Pennsylvania citizens lashing out at the Senator over the healthcare issue. A preliminary RR Democratic primary poll (8/11; 423 likely PA Democratic voters) gives Specter a 47-34% margin over Sestak, but that’s down considerably from the original 55-23% mark found in Quinnipiac University’ mid-July survey.

House Update

CA-10: A new poll show California Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) leading the field for the September 1st special election to replace former Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D). According to Survey USA (8/10-11; 552 likely CA-10 voters) Garamendi places first with 26% of the vote, followed by Republican John Harmer with 18%, and then Democrats Mark DeSaulnier (15%) and Joan Buchanan (12%). Garamendi, a former Deputy Secretary of the Interior Department, won the endorsement of both former President Bill Clinton and ex-Vice-President Al Gore. The primary election will send the top Democrat and Republican to a November 3rd run-off election, assuming no candidate secures an absolute majority on the first ballot. The district is heavily Democratic, but with all of the front runners having upside down favorability ratings according to Survey USA, Harmer may have an outside chance if the turnout drops to a record low.

IL-10: A new Anzalone-Liszt survey (8/3-6; 405 likely IL-10 Democratic primary voters) conducted for the Dan Seals campaign, posts the candidate to a huge 63-8% lead over state Rep. Julie Hamos (D), who just recently entered the race. Attorney Elliot Richardson registered 2%. State Sen. Michael Bond, originally a candidate, withdrew from the contest in order to seek re-election to the legislature. Republican Mark Kirk is vacating the seat to run for the Senate. Seals has twice opposed Kirk, scoring 47% of the vote each time. This is a strong Democratic conversion opportunity, but the general election promises to be competitive.

KS-4: The open Wichita-anchored 4th CD is about to get two more candidates. State Sen. Jean Schodorf and oil man Willis “Wink” Hartman are making moves to enter the Republican primary race. Both state Sen. Dick Kelsey (R) and Republican National Committeeman Mike Pompeo are already official candidates. Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R) is running for Senate. Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle has the inside track to his party’s nomination. The eventual Republican nominee will be a prohibitive favorite in the November election.

NY-1: The adverse national publicity liberal Rep. Tim Bishop (D) received at his town hall meeting may have helped the National Republican Congressional Committee recruit their top choice as his opponent. Wealthy businessman Randy Altschuler (R) will soon become an official candidate and should have the resources necessary to make the general election competitive. The 1st district has a history of swinging back and forth between the parties. Bishop was first elected in 2002.

NY-23: Democrats chose attorney Bill Owens to be their special election nominee when Rep. John McHugh (R) is confirmed as Secretary of the Army. The eleven local chairmen whose counties make-up the 23rd district took almost twelve hours to choose among the various applicants. Gov. David Paterson (D) will have the authority to set the election as soon as McHugh’s resignation is official. The best guess is that it will coincide with the November 3rd regular municipal election. Republicans have already nominated liberal state Assemblywoman DeDe Scozzafava. Businessman Doug Hoffman is the Conservative Party nominee. This should be a close race. The Democrats’ obvious choice, state Sen. Darrel Aubertine, chose not to run.

PA-6: Former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer Doug Pike (D) may soon have company in the Democratic primary for the open seat campaign to replace Rep. Jim Gerlach (R), who is running for Governor. Retired businessman Bob Roggio, who held Gerlach to a 52-48% victory
in 2008, confirmed to reporters that he is considering running again. State Rep. Curt Schroder and Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello are Republican candidates. This will be a highly active campaign in both the primary and general elections.

PA-7: Former US Attorney Pat Meehan (R), currently a candidate for Governor, is telling supporters that he may abandon his statewide campaign and switch to the open 7th district congressional race. This would give the GOP a tier-one candidate in a district they lost to Rep. Joe Sestak in 2006. Businessman Steven Welch is already in the Republican primary. Democrats will likely field state Rep. Bryan Lentz and possibly fellow state Rep. Greg Vitali. If Meehan runs, this race could move from Lean Democrat to Toss-up.

Governor Update

New Jersey: In a three-way Quinnipiac University poll (8/5-9; 1,301 NJ registered voters) Republican former US Attorney Chris Christie still leads lefty Gov. Jon Corzine (D) by a 46-40% margin. Former state EPA Commissioner Chris Daggett, running as an Independent, takes 7%. In a straight head-to-head contest, the same sampling universe posted Christie to a 51-42% lead. Only 1% of those sampled rated the New Jersey economy as “excellent”, and an additional 7% categorized it as “good.” A full 92% rated it either “only fair” (47%) or “poor” (45%).

Utah: Gov. Jon Huntsman (R) resigned his position as he was confirmed by the Senate to be the next US Ambassador to China. Lt. Governor Gary Herbert (R) was then sworn in as the state’s 17th Governor. He subsequently chose moderate Farmington City state Sen. Greg Bell (R) to replace him at Lt. Governor. Herbert will stand for a special election in 2010 to fill the balance of the four year term, which expires in 2012. He must first qualify for the ballot at the party nominating convention, and then secure the primary election before running in November. Several Republican office holders are already looking at challenging Herbert. Salt Lake City Mayor Peter Corroon is the top Democratic possibility.

Virginia: Rasmussen Reports released the results of their latest poll (8/10; 500 likely VA registered voters) of Virginia’s gubernatorial race. Republican Bob McDonnell, the state’s former Attorney General, leads Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds 48-37%, continuing a string of surveys that post the GOP nominee to a substantial lead.

Senate Update

Illinois: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has a substantial lead in the Senate Democratic primary according to a new political poll. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (7/28-8/3; 387 likely Democrat voters) projects Giannoulias to be ahead of Chicago businessman Chris Kennedy, the son of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson 45-17-13%, respectively. Kennedy is not likely to enter the race, as he recently expressed more interest in running for Governor. Jackson has publicly expressed a desire to run, but has made no official announcement of candidacy. GOP Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10) appears to be unimpeded for the Republican nomination and gives the party a real chance to win in November.

Pennsylvania: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7) made his campaign for the Senate official. Earlier this week he held kick-off events and contrasted his record with that of party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter. The two will square-off for the Democratic nomination, and the winner will face former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA-15) in the general election. Though Specter has a better than 20 point lead over Sestak in early polling, this race will close. The Senator could be in trouble here, as he attempts to win the Democratic nomination for the fist time in his career. Specter barely winning the D primary sets up the best-case general election scenario for Toomey.

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Senate Update

California: In a very small sample Rasmussen Reports poll (July 22; 500 likely CA voters) Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) leads potential challenger Carly Fiorina (R) by only a 45-41% margin. Fiorina, the former Hewlett Packard CEO is likely to officially announce her candidacy in the near future.

Kentucky: Sen. Jim Bunning (R), after failing to raise sufficient early money to run for a third term, announced he would cease campaign operations and retire after the next election. Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson is the GOP candidate-in-waiting. The top two Democratic candidates are Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo. Prior to being chosen as Gov. Steve Beshear’s running mate in 2007, Mongiardo challenged Bunning five years ago and held the Senator to a scant 51-49% re-election victory. The KY-Senate campaign will now be rated as a toss-up.

Texas: Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who has been planning a Republican primary challenge to Gov. Rick Perry, is again saying that she will resign her seat in order to campaign full-time. Her leaving office could come sometime in August. If she does decide to vacate, Perry will then appoint a replacement, possibly Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R). A special election would then be called to fulfill the balance of the term. The seat next comes up for election in 2012. Two Democrats have already announced their intentions to run should Hutchison depart. Houston Mayor Bill White and former state Comptroller John Sharp are already raising money for a run. Republicans will be favored to hold the seat.

House Update

CT-4: Republicans had been attempting to recruit state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney to challenge freshman Rep. Jim Himes (D). With the new Congressman already raising over $973,000 for his first re-election, McKinney decided to take a pass on running for Congress.

HI-1: State Senate President Colleen Hanabusa (D), after considering a race for Governor, was in Washington to discuss running for the 1st congressional district seat being vacated by Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D), who is an official gubernatorial candidate. Former 2nd district Rep. Ed Case is already in the Democratic field. Honolulu city Councilman Charles Djou (R) is the consensus Republican candidate.

IL-7: Darlena Williams-Burnett (D), the Cook County chief deputy Recorder of Deeds, is the first person to officially announce her congressional candidacy. Seven-term Rep. Danny Davis (D) is vacating his seat to run for President of the Cook County Board of Commissioners. The winner of the Democratic primary will win the general election.

IL-10: State Rep. Julie Hamos (D) announced her congressional candidacy for the seat being vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R), who is running for Senate. Hamos joins state Senator Michael Bond and Dan Seals, the man who twice became the Democratic nominee against Kirk, attorney Elliot Richardson, and Republican businesswoman Patricia Bird in the field of candidates. This seat is a prime Democratic conversion opportunity.

LA-2: State Rep. Juan LaFonta (D) announced his candidacy against freshman Rep. Ahn “Joseph” Cao (R). A crowded Democratic field is expected as Cao won the heavily Democratic district against indicted former Rep. William Jefferson (D) in 2008. This is the top Democratic challenge race in the country.

MI-7: Last week former Rep. Tim Walberg (R), defeated for re-election last November by Rep. Mark Schauer (D), announced he would seek a re-match. According to Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA-22), a leader in recruiting GOP House candidates, indicated to Michigan leaders in Washington that attorney Brian Rooney, brother to Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL-16), will also soon be officially running for the seat.

MS-1: State Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) announced he will challenge Rep. Travis Childers (D) in the seat formerly represented by Sen. Roger Wicker (R). The Republican nature of the district suggests that this campaign will be competitive.

NY-23: Now that state Sen. Darrel Aubertine (D) declined to run in the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh (R) when the latter is confirmed as Secretary of the Army, the district’s eleven Democratic county chairmen stated that they will caucus sometime in August to choose a nominee. Eleven individuals have served notice that they want to be considered by the nominating committee. Last week the Republicans nominated moderate state Assemblywoman DeDe

Scozzafava. Gov. David Paterson (D) will schedule the special election once McHugh is confirmed and officially resigns the seat.

NC-7: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D), publicly considering a challenge to Sen. Richard Burr (R), instead announced that he will seek an eighth term in the House. Democrats appear to be coalescing around Secretary of State Elaine Marshall to oppose Burr.

UT-2: Rep. Jim Matheson, rumored to be considering either a Senate or gubernatorial race, will again run for re-election to the House. Matheson, a Democrat whose father was Governor, was first elected in 2000 and represents one of the most Republican districts of any Democrat in the country.

VA-5: Former Rep. Virgil Goode (R), who served in Congress as a Democrat, Republican, and Independent but was defeated in 2008, announced he would not seek a re-match with Rep. Tom Perriello (D), the man who unseated him by 727 votes. With a fresh candidate, the VA-5 campaign will be a top GOP conversion target.

Governor Update

Connecticut: State Sen. Gary LeBeau of East Hartford announced his candidacy for Governor against incumbent Republican Jodi Rell. The field will soon be getting crowded. Already raising money for a race are Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, Stamford Mayor Daniel Malloy, and former state House Speaker James Amman. Former Democratic Senatorial nominee Ned Lamont may also run.

Illinois: Democratic state Comptroller Dan Hynes, who is serving his third term in office, announced that he will challenge Gov. Patrick Quinn in the February 2010 primary. Quinn, elected as impeached Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s running mate in 2006, ascended to his current post when the former chief executive was removed from office.

Michigan: Former state Rep. John Freeman (D) announced his candidacy for Governor. Also in the Democratic primary race is state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, along with the favorite for the nomination, Lt. Gov. John Cherry. Former Michigan State head football coach George Perles is also expected to run. This general election race is rated as a toss-up.

New Jersey: The latest New Jersey statewide poll, this time from the Public Policy Polling firm, verifies that Republican challenger Chris Christie continues to

lead Gov. Jon Corzine (D). The PPP numbers (7/24-27; 552 NJ registered voters) again posts Christie at the 50% mark, the fifth consecutive survey to do so. The PPP ballot test shows Christie over Corzine 50-36%, including a 54-26% margin in the critically important Independent voter category. This race is to be decided in November of this year.

Virginia: A new Rasmussen Reports poll (7/27-28; 526 likely VA voters) gives Republican former Attorney General Bob McDonnell a commanding 55-40% lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds. The sample is skewed toward Republicans, meaning the margin is likely inflated. Still, McDonnell has the clear advantage despite this somewhat unrepresentative sampling universe.

Senate Update

Connecticut: A new Quinnipiac University poll (7/16-20; 1,499 CT registered voters) again reveals trouble for ethically-troubled Sen. Chris Dodd (D). The new numbers show him trailing former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT-2) 49-38%. He ties ex-Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R) at 42%; leads state Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R) 42-40%; and has only a five point advantage (43-38%) over anti-tax activist Peter Schiff (R). Dodd’s favorability rating, though upside down at 40:50% favorable to unfavorable, is actually four points better than what the May Q-Poll showed. Simmons enjoys a big lead in the GOP primary.

New Hampshire: Former state Education Board chairman and conservative leader Ovide Lamontagne is taking concrete steps to challenge moderate Attorney General Kelly Ayotte in the GOP Senatorial primary. Lamontagne has recruited two key former aides to presidential candidate Mitt Romney to run his fledging campaign. Sen. Judd Gregg (R) is retiring. The Democrats will nominate liberal Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH-2).

Louisiana: Public Policy Polling (7/17-19; 727 registered LA voters) published new numbers in the proposed Sen. David Vitter – Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA-3) match-up: Vitter leading 44-32%. Despite the prostitution scandal taint surrounding the incumbent, Melancon, rather surprisingly, has a considerably worse favorability rating than Vitter. The Senator posts a 44:36% positive to negative rating, while Melancon is upside down at 26:32%. In fact, a generic Democrat even fares better against Vitter than does Melancon, widely believed to be the Ds best potential candidate. Vitter only leads a generic Democrat 44-38%.

Pennsylvania: The latest Quinnipiac University poll in Pennsylvania (7/14-19; 1,173 registered PA voters) is showing high vulnerability for party-switching US Sen. Arlen Specter (D). In a trial ballot test against former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA-15), the veteran Senator’s lead has dropped to just a single point, 45-44%. Toomey even leads Specter’s soon-to-announce Democratic primary challenger, Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7), 39-35%. Specter has a 55-23% lead over Sestak in the Democratic primary (sample size: 512 PA Democrats from the original 1,173 respondents), but that will change once Sestak becomes better known. The Congressman already has amassed $4.2 million for his statewide campaign.

House Update

IL-10: Now that Rep. Mark Kirk’s (R) intention to seek the GOP Senate nomination is public, potential congressional candidates are beginning to make their moves. Dan Seals, the man that ran two close races against Kirk in 2006 and 2008 announced that he will again run for what is now an open congressional seat. He joins state Sen. Michael Bond and attorney Elliot Richardson as announced Democratic candidates. Highland Park city councilor Jim Kirsch said he may run, as did ultra-liberal state Rep. Julie Hamos (D), who does not reside in the district. State Sen. Susan Garrett (D), whom many believe is the Democrats’ best candidate, said she will keep her current position. On the Republican side, state Reps. Ed Sullivan and Beth Coulson are considering entering the race, while state Sen. Matt Murphy, a current gubernatorial candidate, may switch to the congressional campaign now that Kirk is running statewide. Businesswoman Patricia Bird is already an announced GOP candidate. This will be a hot, and very expensive, contest.

NV-2: Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg (D) who had already announced a campaign against Rep. Dean Heller (R), has now decided that she won’t make the challenge. Two-time Democratic nominee Jill Derby is also taking a pass for 2010. Heller is now a heavy favorite to win a third term, assuming he doesn’t challenge beleaguered Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) or Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D).

NJ-3: Despite forcing her out of the 2008 open seat congressional race, NJ Republican Party leaders are reportedly attempting to recruit state Sen. Diane Allen to challenge now-incumbent Rep. John Adler (D).

NY-23: Republicans this week nominated in caucus liberal state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as their eventual special election candidate when Rep. John McHugh (R) is confirmed as Army Secretary. The Democrats’ best potential candidate, state Sen. Darrel Aubertine, then announced that he would not run for Congress. The Democrats will caucus to choose their own nominee sometime later. State Democrats did not want to risk losing control of the New York Senate, where they maintain a slim 32-30 majority, since a Republican would have been favored in a special election to fill the Aubertine seat had the Senator been elected to Congress.

PA-15: As expected, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan (D) will challenge three-term Rep. Charlie Dent (R) next year. Dent has performed well in the marginal district, but Callahan will be a top-tier Democratic challenger.

SC-3: Former NFL football coach (Cincinnati Bengals; Tampa Bay Buccaneers) Sam Wyche, currently an elected member of the Pickens County Council, is testing the waters for a congressional run. With Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) vacating the seat to run for Governor, Wyche would join a crowded Republican primary in what will be a safe GOP open seat.

VA-11: Businessman Keith Fimian (R), who lost a 55-43% race to freshman Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) last year, will seek a re-match in 2010. Former Rep. Tom Davis (R) had represented this district for seven terms before Connolly converted it to the Democratic column in November. This will be a tough race for Fimian, as northern Virginia continues to move decidedly leftward, but he is a good candidate who has the potential of making this a competitive campaign.

Governor Update

Alaska: Even before Lt. Governor Sean Parnell (R) officially takes over for resigning Gov. Sarah Palin (R), he already has several 2010 opponents. State Sen. Hollis French (D) and former Dept. of Administration commissioner Bob Poe (D) both say they will run. Former losing Democratic Lt. Governor nominee and defeated congressional candidate Ethan Berkowitz (D) is also expected to soon enter the race.

Illinois: Dodging a bullet earlier this month when Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) said she would not challenge Gov. Patrick Quinn (D) in the Democratic primary, the new chief executive is not so lucky now. Three-term Illinois state Comptroller Dan Hynes (D) now says he will challenge Quinn for the party nomination. Quinn ascended to the Governorship after Rod Blagojevich (D) was impeached. Businessman Chris Kennedy (D), son of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who had been flirting with launching a Senatorial bid, is now also apparently considering running for Governor. It looks like the gloves are coming off in Illinois.

New Jersey: Another statewide poll again confirms Republican challenger Chris Christie’s lead over unpopular Gov. Jon Corzine (D). Strategic Vision, in a poll conducted July 17-19 (800 NJ registered voters), posts Christie to a 53-38% lead. Only 24% of New Jersey voters feel the state is on the right track, versus 62% who say the NJ government is off course. Corzine’s job approval rating drops to 35:55%, compared to President Obama’s 50:40% mark.

Ohio: Former US Sen. Mike DeWine (R), who was considering a run for Governor, has decided to enter the Attorney General’s contest instead. This gives ex-Rep. John Kasich a virtually clear path to the gubernatorial nomination in order to face-off against Gov. Ted Strickland (D) next year. With DeWine in the AG’s race and former Rep. Rob Portman running for Senate, the Republicans have their strongest possible statewide ticket.

Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac University also surveyed the Pennsylvania electorate about gubernatorial preferences in their current poll (see PA-Senate race above). Attorney General Tom Corbett has a 38-15-9% lead in the GOP primary when pitted against Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6) and former US Attorney Pat Meehan, respectively. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, state Auditor Jack Wagner, and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox are all within three points of each other on the Democratic side (16-16-13%). Surprisingly, the Republicans lead the generic question (would you prefer the Republican or Democratic candidate in the 2010 gubernatorial race) 38-37%. Pennsylvania, too, will be very interesting this time around.

Senate Update

Colorado: Former state Sen. Tom Weins is publicly speculating about joining the Republican field to challenge appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Aurora At-Large City Councilman Ryan Frazier and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck are the officially announced GOP candidates. This is expected to be a competitive race because Bennet’s numbers are weak and he is an inexperienced political candidate.

Florida: Former House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who is a heavy underdog to Gov. Charlie Crist (R) in the GOP Senatorial primary, is reportedly testing the waters about switching to the open Attorney General’s race.

Illinois: This always-changing campaign has done so again. Appointed Sen. Roland Burris (D) has officially said he will not seek a full term, and Democratic Attorney General Lisa Madigan is also out. This has led to a bit of maneuvering on the Republican side with Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10) wanting to ensure a clear path to the nomination before entering the race. With Republican state party chairman Andy McKenna now saying he won’t run if Kirk does, the Congressman will now officially launch his Senatorial campaign on Monday. Despite the media trying to portray Kirk as indecisive, he actually played this situation quite well. He forced Madigan to make the first move, and he is right to insist upon a clear field for the nomination. Republicans have a chance to win this most Democratic of seats, but they must be united to do so.

New Hampshire: Research 2000, polling for the liberal Daily Kos national blog, just released the results of their latest Senatorial survey in the Granite State (7/13-15; 600 likely NH voters). Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R), likely the newest entry in the race, leads leftist Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH-2) by a 39-38% count, the best Republican number so far recorded in the race to replace the retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R).

New York: Rasmussen Reports released their first poll of the New York Senate Democratic primary between appointed incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand and soon-to-announce Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY-14). The poll (7/14; 373 likely NY Democratic primary voters) has Maloney leading Gillibrand 33-27%. Both women have virtually identical favorability ratings. Gillibrand scores a 49:25% positive to negative mark and Maloney follows with a 44:24% ratio.

House Update

CA-32: Liberal Democrat Judy Chu won the special election to replace liberal Labor Secretary Hilda Solis (D) in Congress. Chu defeated distant relative Betty Chu (R) 62-33%, in a race that was decided when the CA Board of Equalization chair and former Assemblywoman won the May 19th Democratic primary. This will be a safe seat for Chu at least until 2011 redistricting changes the congressional boundary lines.

KS-4: Wichita state Rep. Raj Goyle (D) has announced his intent to run to replace Republican Rep. Todd Tiahrt, who is now in the Senate race. State Sen. Dick Kelsey and RNC National Committeeman Mike Pompeo are officially candidates on the Republican side. The Wichita-anchored district is heavily Republican. President Obama lost the seat 58-40% to John McCain last November. Tiahrt first won here in 1994. The Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite.

MI-7: Former Rep. Tim Walberg (R), defeated last November in his first attempt for re-election, has decided to run for his old job. He will oppose Rep. Mark Schauer (D), who won the 2008 election 49-46%. This race will be considered a toss-up.

MN-6: State Senate Majority Leader Tarryl Clark (D) is telling supporters and key reporters that she will soon announce her candidacy to oppose two-term conservative Rep. Michele Bachmann (R). Elwyn Tinklenberg (D), the 2008 nominee who held Bachmann to a 46-44% victory, is also an active candidate. Maureen Reed, a former Independence Party Lt. Governor nominee, is expected to join the Democratic primary field, too. Minnesota usually chooses its party nominees in convention, but holding a subsequent primary is possible.

PA-6: With Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) soon to enter the race for Governor, attention turns to the open House district. Since the seat is trending more and more Democratic (Obama carried PA-6 58-41%), this becomes a prime conversion opportunity. Former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer Doug Pike is off to a strong start on the Democratic side. He has already raised $630,000 for the campaign, giving him a significant early advantage over all potential opponents. Republicans are looking to state Rep. Curt Schroder, now in his eighth term in the House, serving a suburban Philadelphia legislative district that is fully contained within the 6th congressional. Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello is telling reporters he will likely enter the race on the Republican side as well.

Governor Update

California: Former E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman (R) is obviously serious about her run for Governor. Contributing $15 million of her own money to the race, added to the $6.7 million she has raised from others, means she has a beginning war chest of $25 million. She faces a GOP primary contest with state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, the only Republican elected statewide. The winner will face the Democratic nominee, currently projected as being the victor between Attorney General and former Governor Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom.

Colorado: State Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry (R) officially announced his candidacy for Governor, opposing former Rep. Scott McInnis (R-CO-3) in the GOP primary. The winner faces Gov. Bill Ritter (D) in the 2010 general election. Ritter appears vulnerable, but Republican leaders had hoped a consensus GOP candidate would emerge, thus saving scarce campaign resources for the general election.

New Jersey: Two new polls again show Republican challenger Chris Christie with the lead over Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in a race that will be decided this November. Quinnipiac University (7/8-12; 1,514 likely NJ voters) posts Christie to a 53-41% lead. The just-released Monmouth University survey (7/9-14; 792 registered NJ voters) shows the race to be a bit closer, 43-37%, still in favor of the challenger. Corzine’s job approval in the Q-Poll hit a record low 33:60% favorable to unfavorable.

Pennsylvania: Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6) informed state and national Republican leaders that he will be running for Governor next year. He joins Attorney General Tom Corbett and former US Attorney Pat Meehan in the top tier of GOP candidates. Democrats feature Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, state Auditor Jack Wagner, and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox. The recent voting history gives the Democrats an edge in the general election, but this race could become very competitive. The Pennsylvania Governorship is critically important in the national redistricting scheme.

Tennessee: The Southern Political Report conducted the first poll (7/13; 604 likely TN voters) of the open Governor’s race in the Volunteer State (Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) is term-limited), but the data doesn’t give any clear indications as to who might be the strongest candidate. Mike McWherter, son of former Gov. Ned McWherter (D) leads what will likely be a crowded Democratic field, but with only 23%. Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN-3), similarly leads a pack of contenders on the Republican side by an almost identical 22%.

Texas: Gov. Rick Perry (R) has completely turned the Republican primary race against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison around. A new Rasmussen Reports survey (7/15; 776 Likely Republican TX voters) posts the Governor to a 46-36% lead over Sen. Hutchison, who just recently officially entered the race. Polls taken at the beginning of the year pegged Hutchison to leads of better than 20 points. Perry, who first assumed his office in 2001 when George W. Bush was elected President, is already the longest-serving Governor in Texas history. Hutchison was elected to the Senate in a 1993 special election when then-Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D) vacated his seat to become Treasury Secretary in the Clinton Administration.

Virginia: Rasmussen Reports also has a new poll for the 2009 Virginia Governor’s race (7/14; 500 likely VA voters). Republican Bob McDonnell leads Democrat Creigh Deeds 44-41% in this most recent data. The two men have similar favorability ratings. McDonnell is viewed favorably by 50% of those sampled, against 27% who have an unfavorable perception of him. Deeds records a 49:35% positive to negative ratio.

Senate Update

Illinois: Both Sen. Roland Burris (D) and Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) said they will not seek the Senate seat next year. Though Burris is the sitting incumbent, his departure had been a foregone conclusion because of his non-existent fundraising and poor standing in the polls. Reports suggest that his aggregate campaign receipt total did not even reach $20,000. Madigan’s choice to stay in her current position is a boon for Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. The Democrats only announced Senatorial candidate, State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D), is not particularly strong. This campaign could become one of the premier political contests of the 2010 election cycle.

New Hampshire: Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) is saying that she will resign her post on July 17, suggesting that she will then officially enter the Senate race to oppose Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH-2). Sen. Judd Gregg (R) is retiring. This is arguably the Republicans’ most vulnerable seat, but Ayotte has the profile of a strong candidate. She is untested, though, as New Hampshire appoints its Attorneys General, so this will be Ms. Ayotte’s first attempt at securing elective office.

Ohio: Quinnipiac University just released the results of their latest Buckeye State poll (6/26-7/1; 1,259 OH registered voters; 483 Democrats/445 Republicans). The data shows former Bush Budget Director and Congressman Rob Portman (R) gaining on Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D). The latest figures post Fisher to a slight 37-33% lead. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner’s (D) lead over Portman drops to just one point, 35-34%. The surprise finding in the poll is the huge drop in President Obama’s job approval rating. His numbers free-fall to 49:44% according to this data. Research 2000, polling for the liberal Daily Kos political blog, showed a better picture for the Democrats in the Senate contest. Their latest data (7/6-8; 600 registered OH voters) placed Fisher ahead of Portman 42-35%. Brunner was up 40-36%. The R2000 poll uses a much smaller sample and has a higher error factor.

House Update

CA-10: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) set the special election to replace former Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D), who was confirmed as an Undersecretary of the State Department. The at-large primary will be September 1st. If no candidate obtains an absolute majority, the top vote-getters from each party will run-off on November 3rd, concurrent with the state’s municipal election calendar. Democrats are favored to retain the seat.

FL-12: Polk County Commissioner Randy Wilkinson officially announced his candidacy for the Republican congressional nomination. He joins former state Rep. Dennis Ross in the GOP field. The Republicans are favored to retain the district. Rep. Adam Putnam (R) is vacating the seat to run for state Agriculture Commissioner.

FL-24: In what is becoming a busy Republican primary, state Rep. Sandy Adams will soon officially announce that she is joining the field of candidates vying for the opportunity to oppose liberal freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D). Already in the race are state Rep. Dorothy Hukill and Winter Park City Councilor Karen Diebel. This race will be competitive, as FL-24 should be Republican.

MI-9: Former state Rep. Andrew Raczkowski announced he is planning to challenge freshman Rep. Gary Peters (D). Raczkowski is a former Republican Senatorial nominee (2002, against Sen. Carl Levin). Peters is rated as a heavy favorite.

NE-2: State Sen. Tom White (D) is filing a congressional exploratory committee to test his viability against six-term Rep. Lee Terry (R). The Congressman won his last race with only 52% of the vote, though President Obama did carry the Omaha-based district. Terry will be stronger this time around.

NM-2: Former Rep. and defeated 2008 Senatorial candidate Steve Pearce (R) declared his candidacy to regain his old congressional district from freshman Rep. Harry Teague (D). The new Congressman’s vote in favor of the Cap & Trade legislation is the defining factor in convincing Pearce to run again, the former Representative stated. This will be a toss-up race, as the 2nd district still leans Republican despite the strong statewide lurch to the Democrats. NM-2 goes to the top of the GOP conversion chart for the coming election cycle.

OH-15: Former state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) announced that he will challenge freshman Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) next year. Stivers lost a tough 2008 race to Kilroy, coming within 2,300 votes of victory in a district that contains both the state Capitol in Columbus, and Ohio State University. A different turnout model in 2010 could easily send Stivers over the top. This is another prime GOP conversion opportunity.

SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D) ended speculation that she would run for Governor and officially announced her candidacy for re-election to the House. Herseth is rated as the prohibitive favorite to win a fourth full term. While the move secures a Democratic House seat, it also takes away their best opportunity of capturing the Governor’s chair. The eventual Republican nominee will now be a heavy favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike Rounds (R).

VA-2: Automobile dealer Scott Rigell (R) announced that he will challenge freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D). Others are expected to join the GOP field of candidates before next year’s filing deadline. Nye defeated then-Rep. Thelma Drake (R) to win the seat last November.

Governor Update

Massachusetts: Democratic state Treasurer Tim Cahill announced that he is leaving the party to become an Independent. Cahill is then expected to challenge Gov. Deval Patrick (D), who appears vulnerable. Republican businessmen Chris Baker and Christy Mihos are likely to seek their party’s nomination. This race could get very interesting with the added dimension of a serious three-candidate contest.

Minnesota: Former Sen. Norm Coleman (R) is being tested as a candidate for Governor. Public Policy Polling was in the field on 7/7-8. Coleman’s biggest problem is that he scores only a 38:52% favorability ratio, clearly related to the eight month losing battle he waged to overturn the results of the Senate election. Against Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (D), Coleman trails 43-37%. Against one-term ex-US Sen. Mark Dayton (D), the margin is only one-point, 41-40%, in the Democrat’s favor. Coleman fares best against state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D). He tops her 42-34%. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is retiring. A multitude of candidates are expected to run for both parties.

Ohio: The R2000 and Quinnipiac polls mentioned in the Senate capsule above, also report similar numbers in the Governor’s race. According to R2000, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) leads former Rep. John Kasich (R) 44-39%. Quinnipiac shows a comparable 42-38% spread in the Governor’s favor. The Q-Poll also tested former Sen. Mike DeWine (R) against Strickland and
found that he does better than Kasich. Strickland’s lead over DeWine falls to just one point, 41-40%. Strickland’s approval numbers are finally coming down to earth. This is now a legitimate race. With Ohio likely to lose two seats in the 2010 reapportionment, the Governor’s office becomes critical for both parties in terms of redistricting.

Texas: The Government Department at the University of Texas just released the results of a survey they conducted in June. The data (6/11-22; 924 adults), showed Gov. Rick Perry (R) leading Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 38-27%. Though it is clear Perry has stormed back into this race after trailing Hutchison by large numbers, this poll has major flaws. The sampling period (12 days) is too long; the surveyors did not screen for registered voters; and the total preference (65%) is very low for candidates who are so well known to the Texas electorate.

Virginia: Public Policy Polling (6/30-7/2; 617 registered VA voters) also tested the Virginia Governor’s race. There, GOP nominee Bob McDonnell leads Democrat Creigh Deeds by a 49-43% count, suggesting that the latter’s bounce from winning his June 9th primary has evaporated. This race is officially a toss-up.

Senate Update

Louisiana: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA-3) has told national Democratic leaders that he definitely plans to challenge incumbent Sen. David Vitter (R) in 2010. Melancon has not made an officially announcement, but is expected to do so soon. Vitter remains the favorite despite his 2007 prostitution scandal.

New Hampshire: Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) is close to making a decision about running for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg‘s (R) Senate seat. Ayotte is apparently becoming the first choice of Republican leaders to challenge the likely Democratic nominee, Congressman Paul Hodes (D-NH-2). This also delivers a clear signal that former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) will not become a candidate.

New York: Quinnipiac University released its first poll of the Democratic Senatorial primary featuring a Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand/Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY-14) head-to-head ballot test. The survey of 2,477 New York registered voters (1,048 Democrats) was conducted over the June 16-21 period. Though Gillibrand is successfully gaining endorsements from prominent politicians and activists throughout the state, she still trails a potential primary opponent. The Q-Poll showed Maloney with a 27-23% lead over the appointed incumbent. Gillibrand’s name ID has now gone over 50% statewide, and she posted a 37:15% job approval rating in this same survey.

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Promoted from diaries by Mark Impomeni

Senate Update

Kansas: Survey USA released its latest poll in the GOP primary battle to replace Sen. Sam Brownback. Reps. Jerry Moran (R-KS-1) and Todd Tiahrt (R-KS-4) remain virtually dead even with Moran holding a slight 40-38% advantage. The winner holds the open seat for the GOP.

Louisiana: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA-3), now facing the prospect of a tough re-election (GOP state Rep. Nickie Monica is saying he will enter the race) as well as the possibility of losing his seat in the 2011 redistricting is indicating that he is reconsidering running against scandal-laden Sen. David Vitter (R). Melancon’s entry will make the race highly competitive.

Missouri: Former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) told The Hill newspaper this week that she is now considering a run for Rep. Roy Blunt’s (R-MO-7) congressional seat rather than challenge him in the GOP Senate primary. In a subsequent conversation with a local Springfield media outlet the next day, Steelman still left the door open for a Senate run, however, stating she is still “considering” the statewide venture.

New Hampshire: Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) is being discussed in Republican circles as a potential Senate candidate to replace the retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R). Ayotte was appointed by former Governor Craig Benson (R) and retained by current Democratic Gov. John Lynch.

Pennsylvania: Rasmussen Reports released its first poll on the potential primary between Democratic Senator Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7). The survey of 500 likely voters shows Sen. Specter with a comfortable, but shrinking, 19 point lead, 51-32%. The numbers are better for Sestak than one might believe at first glance. The name ID disparity between the two candidates, with Specter’s being virtually universal and Sestak’s low throughout the state, suggests that the latter has much room to grow as he becomes better known.

House Update

AZ-5: Former video game company president Jim Ward (R) has announced his candidacy against Rep. Harry Mitchell (D). Though Ward has deep pockets, he will face a tough challenge from the 2008 GOP nominee, former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert.

ID-1: The GOP primary field has added another candidate as current state House Majority Leader Ken Roberts has thrown his hat into the ring to challenge freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D). Roberts joins McCain ally Vaughn Ward and possibly former Rep. Bill Sali (R-ID-1), who remains undecided as to whether he will seek a rematch. This seat should come back to the GOP in 2010.

NH-2: Rep. Paul Hodes’ open seat attracted its first official Republican candidate, in the person of former state Rep. Bob Giuda. Speculation still remains as to whether 2008 nominee and former radio host Jennifer Horn or even former Rep. Charlie Bass will join the fray.

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