Arkansas: Sen. Blanche Lincoln’s (D) political troubles may not be confined to the general election. Democratic Lt. Gov. Bill Halter appears to be making moves to enter the Senatorial primary, indicating he will campaign from her left, should he officially contend for the nomination. This could force Lincoln to the left for the short term, which may further endanger her against an eventual Republican nominee.

Kansas: A new Survey USA poll (12/4-6; 466 registered KS Republican voters) again places the GOP Senatorial contest between Reps. Jerry Moran (R-KS-1) and Todd Tiahrt (R-KS-4) within the margin of error. After other pollsters showed a more definitive lead for Moran last month, SUSA pegs the race at 37-34% in the 1st district Congressman’s favor. Sen. Sam Brownback (R) is vacating the seat to run for Governor.

Massachusetts: As the polling consistently predicted, liberal Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) won the special Democratic primary to succeed the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) earlier this week. She defeated Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA-8), businessman Alan Khazei, and Boston Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca by a 47-28-13-12% margin. She now faces state Sen. Scott Brown, who easily won the GOP primary with 89% of the vote. Coakley is the prohibitive favorite to win the January 19th special general election in this knee-jerk Democratic state.

Nevada: A new Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey (11/30-12/2; 625 registered NV voters) conducted for the Las Vegas Review Journal again shows Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) trailing his two main Republican opponents. Against former state Republican chair Sue Lowden, Reid is behind 51-41%. When paired with ex-Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian, the Reid deficit is 48-42%. Lowden and Tarkanian split the primary vote 25-24%, respectively. Reid’s favorability ratio is a poor 38:49%.

Ohio: A new Rasmussen Reports poll of Ohio voters (12/7; 500 likely OH voters) gives former Bush Budget Director and Congressman Rob Portman (R) a 38-36% lead over Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D), while his prospects against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D) balloon to 40-33%. One would think Portman might have a larger lead considering the same polling sample posts his favorability rating is 48:21% versus Fisher’s 36:35% and Brunner’s 34:36%. For comparison purposes, President Obama scores an upside down 46:53%, while Gov. Ted Strickland (D) does slightly better at 48:50%.

Pennsylvania: Rasmussen Reports just released the results of their brand new Pennsylvania poll (12/8; 1,200 likely PA registered voters; 442 likely Democratic primary voters). Challenger Pat Toomey (R) enjoys a 46-42% lead over party-switching veteran Sen. Arlen Specter (D), and a 44-38% advantage over lefty Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7), the Senator’s Democratic primary challenger. When Sestak and Specter are paired in a primary ballot test, the Senator leads 48-35%. Specter’s improving on his favorability score, but is still upside down at 44:50%. Toomey fares best with a 51:29% favorable to unfavorable rating. Sestak’s ratio is 36:38%. By comparison, President Obama scores an unimpressive 50:48%; Gov. Ed Rendell (D) registers a poor 39:59%.

South Dakota: Matt McGovern, grandson of former Democratic presidential nominee George McGovern, and who announced a challenge to Sen. John Thune (R), now is withdrawing from the race. This leaves Thune without a Democratic opponent, but filing does not close until March 30th.

House Update

AL-2: The local Tea Bag group is moving forward with a challenge to Montgomery City Councilor Martha Roby (R), who hopes to defeat Rep. Bobby Bright (D), one of the nation’s most vulnerable Democratic freshmen. Businessman Rick Barber, a leader of the southeast Alabama Tea Bag movement, is confirming that he will enter the Republican primary.

DE-AL: A new Public Policy Polling survey (11/30-12/2; 571 DE registered voters) gives former Lt. Governor John Carney (D) a big lead in his attempt to succeed Republican Rep. Mike Castle, who is running for Senate. Carney leads former state Sen. Charlie Copeland 44-32% and businessman Fred Cullis 47-24%. The Delaware seat is the Democrats best national chance to convert a Republican open seat.

IL-14: It is becoming clear that the 14th district Republican primary is going to become a two-way race between Ethan Hastert, the former Speaker’s son, and state Sen. Randy Hultgren. In two successive weeks, minor challengers who previously filed candidate papers have withdrawn. The winner of the February 2nd primary will challenge two-term Rep. Bill Foster (D) for the seat that Dennis Hastert held for 19 years.

KS-2: Freshman Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R), who defeated both former Rep. Jim Ryun (R) and freshman Nancy Boyda (D) in 2008, may have drawn her own primary challenger. State Sen. Dennis Pyle (R) obtained candidate filing papers this week. State Sen. Laura Kelly is unopposed for the Democratic nomination at this point in time.

NV-3: The aforementioned Mason-Dixon poll also gives freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D) some bad news. Her new Republican challenger, former state Sen. Joe Heck, ties her at 40% on the poll’s 3rd district ballot test question. This is a better showing for Heck than many believed would be the case in the race’s first public poll. The campaign should now be considered a toss-up.

PA-6: Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello dropped his bid for the Republican congressional nomination, leaving wealthy entrepreneur Steven Welch and state Rep. Curt Schroder as the two heavyweight candidates to replace Rep. Jim Gerlach (R), who is running for Governor. Philadelphia Enquirer editorial writer Doug Pike is the leading Democratic candidate in the swing district, but is drawing primary opposition from physician Manan Trivedi. The general election is considered a toss-up.

PA-11: Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta (R), who held embattled Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) to a 52-48% victory in 2008, announced he will run again next year. Kanjorski first must defeat a
formidable opponent for the Democratic nomination, Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien. Kanjorski defeated Barletta 56-42% when the two ran against each other in 2002.

WA-3: With the retirement announcement of Rep. Brian Baird (D), several Democrats are already indicating that they will run. State Rep. Deb Wallace announced that she will run for the seat. State Sen. Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Brendan Williams are both possible entrants. State Rep. Jaime Herrera, Washougal city Councilman Jon Russell and accountant David Hedrick, all Republicans, were in the race even before Baird announced that he would leave Congress.

Governor Update

Nevada: The aforementioned Mason-Dixon Nevada poll again shows Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman leading the field of candidates should he run for Governor as an Independent. The Mayor is saying that he will soon make a decision about his political future. The poll shows Goodman leading ex-federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) and Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid (D), the Senate Majority Leader’s son, 35-32-24%, respectively. Sandoval leads scandal-ridden Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) 39-18% in the Republican primary.

Ohio: The latest Rasmussen Reports poll (12/7; 500 likely OH registered voters) gives conservative former Rep. John Kasich (R) a 48-39% lead over Gov. Ted Strickland (D). This is the first time any pollster has shown Kasich enjoying this much of a lead.

Texas: Houston Mayor Bill White (D) officially announced that he will run for Governor and face the winner of the Gov. Rick Perry-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison Republican primary shoot out. Democratic county singer Kinky Friedman says he will drop out of the race, following the lead of former Ambassador Tom Schieffer who exited the race just before Thanksgiving. The filing deadline is January 4th. Primary is March 2nd.

Arkansas: Two sets of conflicting polling numbers were almost simultaneously released for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). Rasmussen Reports (12/1; 500 likely AR registered voters) shows the incumbent Democrat trailing four virtually unknown Republican challengers. Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren leads Lincoln 46-39%; state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) leads the Senator 47-41%; businessman Curtis Coleman has a 44-40% advantage against Lincoln; and TEA Party leader Tom Cox (R) also leads – 43-40%. But Research 2000, polling for the national liberal Daily Kos blog (11/30-12/02; 600 likely AR voters), has a much different take. Against Baker, Lincoln leads 42-41%. The Senator leads Coleman 44-39%; Cox 45-31%; and Hendren 46-30%. Such widely divergent results suggest one of the two polls is an outlier.

Delaware: Public Policy Polling (11/30-12/2; 571 DE registered voters) gives At-Large Rep. Mike Castle (R) a 44-39% lead over Attorney General Beau Biden (D). This is the exact opposite of last week’s Susquehanna Research poll that showed Biden leading 45-40%.

Indiana: Former Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN-8), who lost his congressional seat 61-39% to Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN-8) surprisingly announced that he will challenge Sen. Evan Bayh (D) next year. Hostettler, never a major fundraiser during his twelve years in Congress, takes on one of the Senate’s best money hawks in Bayh. The Senator had almost $13 million in the bank at the end of September.

Kansas: A brand new Survey USA poll (12/4-6; 466 likely KS Republican primary voters) again shows the GOP primary to be a close race between Reps. Jerry Moran (R-KS-1) and Todd Tiahrt (R-KS-4). After some November data pointed to Moran pulling away, this new survey pegs the race back to within the margin of error. According to the SUSA poll, Moran leads 37-34%.

Massachusetts: Tuesday is the scheduled primary for the special Senatorial election. Attorney General Martha Coakley appears to be a lock for the Democratic nomination and to win the special general election on January 19th.

North Carolina: When it appeared that Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-NC-2) was going to challenge Sen. Richard Burr (R), former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) dropped his fledging Senatorial bid. Now that Etheridge backed off the Senate race and will stay in the House, the liberal Cunningham is getting back in to the statewide contest. This underscores the Democratic Party’s lack of confidence in Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, who is an announced candidate.

House Update

GA-8: State Sen. Ross Tolleson, widely believed to be the strongest Republican challenger for Rep. Jim Marshall (D), has decided not to run for Congress in 2010. Though the district is marginal, Marshall has been able to survive several tough challenges and will be the favorite to do so again next year.

NH-1: Two Republicans appear to be forcing a primary for the right to challenge leftwing sophomore Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D). Along with former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who is already in the race, businessman Rich Ashooh says he will run and former state Republican chairman Fergus Cullen is likewise expressing interest in becoming a candidate. Guinta is the favorite for the nomination and will be competitive against Shea-Porter.

NH-2: Action on the Democratic side in the adjoining 2nd CD is also occurring. Former NH-2 nominee Katrina Swett, the wife of ex-Rep. Dick Swett and the daughter of the late California Congressman Tom Lantos (D), is saying she is likely to enter the open seat primary. Already in the race is liberal Concord lobbyist Ann McLane Kuster (D), the daughter of a former Concord Mayor (father) and a state Senator (mother), and state Rep. John DeJoie (D). Kuster has already raised $340,000 for the race, but Swett still has over $870,000 in a federal campaign account from an aborted Senatorial bid. Former Rep. Charlie Bass is the likely GOP nominee. He defeated Katrina Swett 57-41% in 2002.

NY-1: Republican challenger Randy Altschuler is releasing the results of his internal McLaughlin & Associates poll (11/18-19; 300 registered NY-1 voters) to underscore the fact that incumbent Rep. Tim Bishop (D) is already under 50% on the ballot test. Altschuler trails by 20 points, however, 46-26%.

NY-23: Conservative special election nominee Doug Hoffman, who lost to Rep. Bill Owens by two points in early November, announced he will seek the Republican nomination for a full term next year. Hoffman will have to unite the entire right-of-center coalition to have a chance of winning. The seat was in Republican hands since 1992, in the person of now-Army Secretary John McHugh.

TN-3: Former state Commerce & Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers, billed as the Democrats’ best hope to make a solidly conservative district competitive, has decided not to run, citing family concerns. A crowded Republican field of candidates battle for the GOP nomination. Rep. Zach Wamp (R) is running for Governor. The eventual Republican nominee will be a prohibitive favorite to hold the seat.

TN-6: Republican state Senator Jim Tracy is taking steps to enter the race against 13-term Rep. Bart Gordon (D) in this middle Tennessee district that gave John McCain 62% of its votes against President Obama. Former Republican County Chair Lou Ann Zelenik is already a candidate. Tracy would be the favorite for the nomination and could make this a competitive race for the first time since Ronald Reagan was President.

TN-8: State Senator Roy Herron (D) confirmed he will be pivoting out of the Governor’s race and into the now open 8th district congressional race. Rep. John Tanner (D) announced he would not seek re-election earlier this week. Several candidates from both parties will likely enter the race, which is expected to become highly competitive in the general election.

TX-17: State Sen. Steve Ogden (R), clearly the Republican that could give Rep. Chet Edwards (D) his strongest race, has again decided to bypass running for Congress. He’ll seek re-election
instead. Businessman Rob Curnock (R), who held Edwards to 53% last November, is planning to run again.

Governor Update

Connecticut: GOP Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele made his quest for Governor official. Former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley also officially jumped out of the Senate race and into the battle for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. The Democrats feature Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and businessman and former 2006 Senatorial nominee Ned Lamont. Gov. Jodi Rell (R) is not seeking re-election.

Massachusetts: Gov. Deval Patrick (D), despite poor job approval ratings and unquestioned vulnerability in a two-way race, continues to fare well in a three-way contest. Rasmussen Reports (11/23; 500 likely MA registered voters) shows the liberal Patrick leading Independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill and Republican businessman Christy Mihos 32-28-26%, respectively. With businessman Charlie Baker as the GOP nominee, Patrick leads 33-28-25%, though Baker moves into second place and Cahill drops to third.

Michigan: Mitchell Research, polling for the Detroit News, released the results of their pre-Thanksgiving poll for the Republican gubernatorial primary, of 600 respondents. Attorney General Mike Cox led Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI-2) and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard 27-24-12%. This is a prime GOP conversion opportunity. Lefty Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) is term-limited.

Minnesota: Former Sen. Norm Coleman (R), who lost a seven-month recount to Saturday Night Live Sen. Al Franken (D) by a scant 312 votes statewide, is at least considering entering the race for Governor. Coleman is raising his public profile but says a decision about running next year is “down the road.”

Texas: Gov. Rick Perry (R) filed his papers for re-election on the opening day of candidate filing. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is expected to present her documentation next week. For the Democrats, Houston Mayor Bill White, who was planning to run for the Senate if Hutchison resigned, will now reportedly file for Governor.

Utah: The first 2010 poll for new Gov. Gary Herbert (R) was released. The Deseret News and KSL-TV tested Herbert against Democratic Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon (11/19-23; 408 registered Utah voters) and found a 56-32% spread in the new incumbent’s favor. Herbert, the state’s former Lt. Governor, assumed the Governorship when Jon Huntsman (R) was appointed Ambassador to China by President Obama. A special election will be held in November of 2010 to fill the remaining two years of the term Huntsman won in 2008.

Wisconsin: Public Policy Polling (11/20-22; 767 registered WI voters) gives Milwaukee Mayor and former Congressman Tom Barrett (D) a 46-41% lead over former three-term Governor and Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson (R). He leads former Rep. Mark Neumann (R) 41-39%, and ties Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker (R) at 40% apiece.
Thompson is not a gubernatorial candidate. Walker and Neumann have indicated that they will run.

Connecticut: Quinnipiac University’s latest Q-Poll (11/3-8; 1,236 registered CT voters; 474 Democrats and 332 Republicans) shows former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons decisively leading leftwing Sen. Chris Dodd (D), 49-38%. Ex-Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R) leads Dodd 47-40%. Former World Wrestling Federation executive Linda McMahon, already spending large amounts of her own money on advertising, even has a two point lead over the five term Senator, 43-41%. Against two unknown Republican candidates, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri and businessman Peter Schiff, Dodd can do no better than tie the former at 42% and lead the latter by a single point, 42-41%. Dodd’s job approval rating has dipped to a Jon Corzine-like 40:54%.

Illinois: Democratic Senatorial contender Cheryle Jackson, the president of the Chicago Urban League, is making known the results of her internal Celinda Lake Research poll. It shows her trailing state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 31-13% in the Democratic primary. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10) will win the GOP nomination. This is a competitive race in the fall.

Nevada: Yet another Republican officially joined the already bulging field of candidates vying for the chance to oppose Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Former Nevada Board of Education member Greg Dagani now becomes the 11th official GOP primary contender and candidate filing doesn’t close until March 12th.

Massachusetts: Suffolk University is out with a new poll (11/4-8; 600 registered MA voters) and the results show little change from previous surveys. Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) continues to enjoy a huge lead in the Democratic primary, posting 44% against Boston Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca’s 17%, Rep. Mike Capuano’s 16%, and businessman Alan Khazei’s 3%. The primary is December 8th; the special general is January 19th. The leftist Coakley is the state’s next Senator, as the eventual Republican nominee has little chance to become competitive.

North Carolina: Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-NC-2) promises to announce his decision about running for the Senate by this weekend. Since he has already informed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee of his intentions, and they reportedly asked him to delay making his decision public for a couple of days, speculators believe that he will not run statewide. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) is already a Senatorial candidate, but trails GOP incumbent Richard Burr (R) by double digits in all early polling. Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker (D), is saying he will consider running if Etheridge decides to seek re-election to the House. After forming an exploratory committee months ago, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham announced he would not seek the Democratic Senatorial nomination.

Ohio: Quinnipiac University also completed a poll (11/5-9; 1,123 registered OH voters) in the Buckeye State Senate race and it is reporting very good news. Republican Rob Portman has taken a three point lead over ultra-liberal Lt. Governor Lee Fisher (D), 39-36%, in their isolated ballot test. Against even more liberal and partisan Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), Portman leads 38-34%. Unknown businessman Tom Ganley (R) also fares well against the Democrats. Despite having virtually no name ID, Ganley trails Fisher 38-34% and Brunner 35-32%.

House Update

CO-4: Former Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown will announce his candidacy for the Republican congressional nomination and the right to challenge freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D). Already in the race is the early favorite, state Rep. Cory Gardner, and University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero. The general election will be highly competitive.

DE-AL: Businessman Fred Cullis became the first Republican to declare for the open seat being vacated by Rep. Mike Castle’s (R) run for the Senate. Former Lt. Governor John Carney (D) is the prohibitive favorite to win next November. DE-AL represents the Democrats’ best chance to convert a Republican open seat.

FL-8: Freshman state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle (R) announced he will not run for Congress next year. The GOP field of candidates continues to dwindle despite the fact that kooky freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D) appears highly vulnerable.

FL-13: African American pastor James Golden (D) announced that he will challenge sophomore Rep. Vern Buchanan (R). After winning the closest election in 2006, the Congressman appears to be in solid political shape to win a third term.

ID-1: State House Majority Leader Ken Roberts (R) has dropped his bid for Congress. This makes former CIA officer Vaughn Ward the leading candidate for the Republican nomination. Former Rep. Bill Sali (R) has still not ruled out another campaign. The eventual GOP nominee will face freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D) and will have a strong chance of winning this district, a territory that gave John McCain 62% of the vote last November.

IN-3: Veteran conservative Rep. Mark Souder (R) is getting a primary challenge from the right. Attorney Phil Troyer, a former congressional aide, officially announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination. Former Ft. Wayne city Councilman Tom Hayhurst, who challenged Souder in 2006 and drew 46% of the vote, will run again for the Democrats.

NJ-3: Reports emanating from New Jersey are that state and national Republican leaders are attempting to recruit former Philadelphia Eagles offensive lineman Jon Runyan into the race against freshman Rep. John Adler (D). Until 2008, the 3rd district had been in Republican hands since Jim Saxton won the seat back in 1984. Governor-elect Chris Christie (R) ran particularly strong in this part of the state last week during his election, prompting renewed GOP interest in winning back this congressional seat.

NY-23: Errors made in counting the election night ballots for the special election in upstate New York are making the final margin of victory much closer, but will not overturn Democrat Bill Owens’ win last week. Adjusting for the tabulation error and estimating the results of the 5,400 absentee ballots that remain uncounted probably means Owens 5,000+ vote margin decreases to under 2,000.

NY-24: Republican Richard Hanna, who lost to incumbent Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) 52-48% last November, is making moves to run again. Hanna is the National Republican Congressional Committee’s first choice to again be their standard bearer in 2008.

PA-17: State Sen. David Argall (R) says he’s “99% certain” he will not challenge nine-term Rep. Tim Holden (D) for what should be a Republican congressional seat.

Governor Update

Colorado: State Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry (R) announced he is ending his campaign for Governor. This puts former US Rep. Scott McInnis (R) in the driver’s seat for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Gov. Bill Ritter (D), whose job approval ratings are poor and trails McInnis in early general election polling, is highly vulnerable. Penry stated he was withdrawing from the race in the interest of party unity after seeing the victories united Republican efforts in Virginia and New Jersey produced.

Connecticut: Gov. Jodi Rell (R), despite polls showing her in relatively strong shape for re-election in a highly Democratic state, announced she would not seek a second full term in office. Rell, then the state’s Lt. Governor, replaced Gov. John Rowland in 2004, after the latter was convicted of accepting bribes. Democrats will now be the favorites to capture the state house. The leading candidates are Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz and 2006 Democratic Senatorial nominee Ned Lamont.

Ohio: The Quinnipiac Ohio poll (11/5-9; 1,123 registered OH voters) shows Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and former presidential candidate and Congressman John Kasich (R) in a 40-40% tie in their latest gubernatorial ballot test. Strickland’s job approval ratio has dropped to 45:43% positive to negative.

Rhode Island: Liberal Lincoln Chafee, who served in the US Senate as a Republican until his defeat in 2006, is now running for Governor as an Independent. He claims his internal polling shows him leading Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio and Republican businessman Rory Smith 36-34-8%, respectively. According to Chafee, the poll stakes him to a 37-24-15% lead over Democratic Attorney General Patrick Lynch and Smith.

Massachusetts: A New England College Polling Institute survey (10/18-22; 468 registered MA Democratic voters) shows Attorney General Martha Coakley maintaining a strong lead in the battle to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D). Coakley places first at 37% in the Democratic primary forecast, Boston Celtics owner Steve Pagliuca is second at 14%, Rep. Mike Capuano has 13%, and philanthropist Alan Khazei is last with 4%. Winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to final victory. The special primary is December 8th followed by a January 19th special general election.

Pennsylvania: Franklin & Marshall College released a small-sample poll of the Pennsylvania electorate (10/20-25; 616 adults; 529 registered PA voters, with a relatively large error factor of 4.3%). Aside from showing that all PA politicians and President Obama, with the exception of Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D), have upside down approval ratings, the survey gave Sen. Arlen Specter (D) only a 33-31% lead over Republican Pat Toomey. Specter leads Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7) 30-18% in the Democratic primary. Toomey leads Sestak 28-20%, when those two are isolated in a general election pairing.

South Dakota: Democrats may have finally found a candidate to take the long-shot plunge against Sen. John Thune (R). Mark McGovern, grandson of former Senator and presidential candidate George McGovern (D) and director of an alternative energy advocacy group, is indicating he may challenge the popular first-term Senator.

Wisconsin: Terrence Wall, a wealthy Madison area real estate developer who would have the capacity to self-fund his campaign, is indicating he will challenge three-term Sen. Russ Feingold (D) next year. Wall’s presence in the race would give Republicans a credible candidate in the uphill battle against the quintessential leftwing Senator.

House Update

FL-19: Liberal state Sen. Ted Deutch (D) appears to be locking up all the key support in his quest to replace retiring Rep. Robert Wexler (D), who is resigning mid-term. Aside from gaining Wexler’s official endorsement, Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL-20), Ron Klein (D-FL-22), and Alcee Hastings (D-FL-23) have also officially endorsed the Palm Beach County state legislator. Republicans have no chance in this district.

IL-7: Rep. Danny Davis (D) has already announced his candidacy for Cook County Board President, but may now be hedging his bet. He apparently will file petitions for re-election, too. He has until November 9th to withdraw from one of the races.

IL-18: Democrats have a candidate to oppose freshman Rep. Aaron Schock (R). D.K. Himer, the state director of the Illinois Environmental Regulatory Group, says he will run for Congress. Schock is rated as a heavy favorite for re-election.

IA-3: Seven-term congressional veteran Leonard Boswell (D) may draw another strong Republican challenger yet again. State Senator Brad Zaun is now testing the waters for a congressional run next year. Zaun is also the former Mayor of Urbandale, a Des Moines suburb.

MI-2: State Sen. Bill Kuipers joined the large Republican field vying to replace retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), who is running for Governor. Already is the race is former state Rep. Bill Huizenga, ex-NFL and University of Michigan football player Jay Riemersma, and businessman Bill Cooper. Winning the GOP nomination in this western Michigan district means victory in the general election and a potentially long congressional career.

MN-3: Freshman GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen is now seeing a group of potential opponents line up against him. Psychiatrist Maureen Hackett (D) is the first to file petitions to run, but Minnesota PTA president Jim Meffert-Nelson is expected to soon follow suit. State Sen. Teri Bonoff, who lost the 2008 Democratic nomination to military veteran Ashwin Madia, says she is also considering a 2010 run for Congress.

Governor Update

Connecticut: A new poll shows a competitive race between incumbent Republican Jodi Rell and Democratic challenger Susan Bysiewicz, the current Secretary of State, within six points of the Governor, 47-41%, according to internal Democratic data. The numbers are believable, however, since Connecticut is so overwhelmingly Democratic.

Massachusetts: Despite very poor approval ratings, the proposed three-way general election, featuring state Treasurer Tim Cahill running as an Independent, apparently gives Gov. Deval Patrick (D) the inside track for re-election. According to a new Rasmussen Reports (10/22; 500 registered MA voters) poll, Patrick would lead a race against Republican businessman Christy Mahos and Cahill 34-23-23%. Against Republican healthcare executive Charlie Baker and Cahill, the numbers are similar: 34-24-23% in favor of Gov. Patrick.

New Mexico: Former Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM-1) announced that she will not seek the open Governor’s office next year. Four relatively unknown Republicans are battling for their nomination. Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D) has the inside track to her party’s nomination and is becoming a heavy favorite to eventually replace term-limited Gov. Bill Richardson (D).

Ohio: The University of Cincinnati released a poll conducted for the Ohio Newspaper (10/14-20; 687 registered OH voters), and it showed a close race between Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and former Rep. John Kasich (R). Among likely voters, Strickland leads 49-46%; when just registered voters are sampled, Kasich actually does better, pulling within one point, 48-47%.

Pennsylvania: The aforementioned Franklin & Marshall College poll also surveyed the respective gubernatorial primary fields. Among Democrats, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato leads the crowded field of candidates, but with just 10% among those expressing a preference. The Republican field is clearer. Attorney General Tom Corbett has a 30-8% lead over Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6).

Rhode Island: Republicans may have found a credible candidate for Governor, thus making a likely three-way race to replace term-limited Gov. Don Carcieri (R). Businessman Rory Smith, philosophically from the Carcieri wing of the Republican Party, will run. Former Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee is in the race as an Independent, and the two will face an eventual Democratic nominee, possibly state Treasurer Frank Caprio or Attorney General Patrick Lynch. Democrats are the early favorites to convert the state house, and may have an even greater advantage in a three-way race.

South Carolina: Lt. Governor Andre Bauer (R), who would ascend to the Governorship early next year if legislators pursue threats to impeach Gov. Mark Sanford (R), announced that he will run for the state’s top office next year. Already in the GOP race are Attorney General Henry McMaster and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC-3). Superintendent of Public Instruction Jim Rex leads the Democratic side.

Wisconsin: Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton (D) has now reversed course and announced that she will not run for Governor next year. This paves the way for Milwaukee Mayor and former US Rep. Tom Barrett (D) to run for the Democratic nomination. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Rep. Mark Neumann are in the Republican field of candidates. Gov. Jim Doyle (D) has already announced his retirement.

Arkansas: Better polling news is evident for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), after several surveys suggested she was running even with virtually unknown Republican candidates. Lincoln usually simultaneously tries be liberal, moderate and conservative. The Benenson Strategy Group (10/5-7; 703 registered AR voters), polling for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, shows Lincoln leading state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) 50-37%. Against state Sen. Kim Hendren (R), the count is an almost identical 51-37%. Talk of a Democratic primary challenge for Lincoln, however, is brewing, from her left and right. Both Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and state Senate President Bob Johnson have not ruled out running for the Senate.

Florida: Two new polls show the Republican primary race between moderate Gov. Charlie Crist and conservative former House Speaker Marco Rubio tightening. Rasmussen Reports (10/19; 1,000 registered FL voters) has Crist ahead of Rubio 49-35%. Quinnipiac University (10/12-18; 1,078 registered FL voters/396 Republicans) posts the Governor to a similar 50-35%. This is a swing of some 14 points from the August Q-Poll away from Crist and toward Rubio.

Illinois: Rasmussen Reports released the findings of a small sample survey (10/14; 500 registered IL voters) of the US Senate race. In this study, both Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) and Rep. Mark Kirk (R) post an identical 41% support level.

Iowa: Research 2000 (10/12-14; 600 registered IA voters) also tests Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) in his bid for a sixth term. Paired with Christine Vilsack (D), wife of US Agriculture Secretary and former Governor Tom Vilsack, Grassley leads 51-40%. Against former US Attorney and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Roxanne Conlin, who is not an official Senatorial candidate, Grassley posts a similar 51-39% margin.

Nevada: Now Democratic pollsters are detecting numbers for Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) to be in the same realm as recently released public surveys. Research 2000, polling for the leftist Progressive Change Campaign Committee, finds Reid trailing former GOP Republican chair Sue Lowden 47-42%, and ex-Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian (R) 46-41%. The firm did not test Reid against businessman John Chachas. R2000 pegs Reid’s favorability ratio at a poor 35:54%, again similar to the public data.

House Update

IL-14: Former Aurora city Alderman Bill Cross (R) dropped out of the GOP primary, the winner of which will challenge liberal Rep. Bill Foster (D), who replaced GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert. The nomination contest, to be settled February 2nd, is now between Hastert’s son, Ethan, and state Sen. Randy Hultgren.

IL-16: Rep. Don Manzullo (R) is apparently getting a rare general election challenge. Freeport, IL Mayor George Gaultrapp (D) announced that he will challenge the nine-term Congressman for his northwestern Illinois US House seat. Manzullo, the conservative chairman of the House Small Business Committee when the Republicans were in the majority, is rated as the prohibitive favorite for re-election.

LA-3: Houma Democratic attorney Ravi Sangisetty is officially in the race to replace Rep. Charlie Melancon (D), who is running for the Senate. He already leads the money raising contest, reporting almost $136,000 in campaign contributions, but that total includes a self-donation of $50,000. State Rep. Nickie Monica (R) is among the Republican contenders. In an open situation, this is one of the Republicans’ best national conversion opportunities.

PA-11: Feeling that the 2010 turnout model will be more favorable for a Republican congressional candidate than that of two years ago, Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta will reportedly again challenge Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D). Barletta lost 52-48% in ’08, after polling ahead for most of the race against the scandal-tainted incumbent who was first elected in 1984. Kanjorski has also drawn a significant primary challenge from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien (D), thus possibly further weakening the long-time Congressman.

Governor Update

Florida: The aforementioned Florida Quinnipiac Poll shows GOP Attorney General Bill McCollum with a 36-32% lead over state CFO Adelaide “Alex” Sink (D). Both candidates already appear to have their respective nominations already sewn up.

Iowa: The same Research 2000 that tested Sen. Chuck Grassley (see above) also studied the Governor’s race. This data brings the race back down to earth after liberal Gov. Chet Culver (D) was badly trailing former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) in several polls. Branstad still leads within this sample, too, but it is a much smaller 48-43%.

Michigan: EPIC/MRA (10/11-14; 600 registered MI voters), polling for the Detroit News, puts the Republicans in strong position against Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D), the consensus Democratic nominee. Attorney General John Cox (R) leads Cherry 45-30%. Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R) has a 39-30% lead, and Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI-2) enjoys a 40-33% advantage over the Lt. Governor. In a Republican primary match-up, Hoekstra leads for the first time, scoring 29% against Cox’s 28%, and Bouchard’s 14%.

New Jersey: Polls continue to roll in, testing the final week of the raucous gubernatorial race among Republican Chris Christie, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and Independent Chris Daggett. All of the polls show Christie and Corzine deadlocked or within three points of each other. Daggett gains substantial double-digit support, but is not close to taking the lead. This race will now be decided through voter turnout.

Rhode Island: Former RINO Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is now running for Governor as an Independent, is finding fundraising tough going against Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio. The latest reports show Chafee with only $180,000 in his campaign account compared to Caprio’s $1.5 million. Though Chafee is capable of investing large amounts of his own money, the contributions from others category often times proves to be better than polling data to detect candidate support levels.

Virginia: Things are looking good for Republican former Attorney General Bob McDonnell. All polls show him with substantial leads over state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) for the November 3rd Governor’s race. The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling released its findings on October 14. They show McDonnell expanding his lead to 52-40%, up from 47-42% when compared with their last poll. Survey USA (10-17-19; 900 registered VA voters) pegs McDonnell to an even bigger 59-40% lead over Deeds as the campaign heads into its final week.

Delaware: Republican At-Large Rep. Mike Castle announced that he will run for the state’s open US Senate seat. His likely opponent is Attorney General Beau Biden, the Vice-President’s son. The latest polling shows Castle leading by five points. Appointed Sen. Ted Kaufman (D) is not a candidate for the special election in November of 2010. The winner has the right to serve the balance of the current term, which ends in 2014.

Florida: Former Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre, 74, is saying that he will run for the Democratic Senatorial nomination. Miami Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17) continues to be a solid favorite to win the Democratic primary, however.

Kentucky: Rasmussen Reports released the results of their latest Senatorial poll (9/30; 500 likely KY registered voters). Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson and Attorney General Jack Conway (D) are tied at 40%. Grayson leads Lt. Governor and 2004 Senatorial nominee Dan Mongiardo (D) 44-37%. Conway leads Rand Paul (R), son of US Rep. and former presidential candidate Ron Paul (R-TX-14) 42-38%, but Paul leads Mongiardo 43-38%, in separate pairings.

Louisiana: Rasmussen Reports (10/5; 500 likely LA registered voters) released the results of their Bayou State US Senate survey. They find Sen. David Vitter (R) holds a 46-36% lead over Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA-3).

Massachusetts: Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley released a Lake Research poll (9/21-24; 800 likely MA voters) showing her with a 47-12% lead over Rep. Mike Capuano (D-MA-8). Though the poll is dated, the numbers mesh with other polls that are now in the public domain. The two are vying to win the special election necessitated by the death of Sen. Edward Kennedy (D).

Nevada: A new Mason-Dixon poll (10/6-8; 500 registered NV voters) again shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) trailing two potential Republican opponents. Pitted against Nevada Republican Chair Sue Lowden, Reid trails 49-39%. Against former Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian, Reid is down by five points, 48-43%. The Majority Leader’s favorability ratio is a poor 38:50%. President Obama scores 46:43% on the same question. Lowden leads Tarkanian 23-21% in a Republican primary match-up.

House Update

FL-8: In the wake of Rep. Alan Grayson’s (D) comments saying Republicans want people to die because they oppose a government run healthcare program, businessman Armando Gutierrez, Jr. announced his congressional candidacy. Gutierrez’s father was the spokesman for the Elian Gonzalez family in Miami, when the Clinton Administration returned the Cuban refugee child back to the controversial island nation. Republicans are waiting for former state Senate President Dan Webster to make a decision about his own candidacy. Most believe Webster, forecast to be the GOP’s strongest candidate, will run.

GA-2: Some surprising fundraising totals are being registered by certain GOP candidates in heretofore non-competitive districts. State Rep. Mike Keown (R), challenging nine-term Rep. Sanford Bishop (D), raised $105,000 for the previous quarter and has $101,000 cash-on-hand.

HI-1: Hawaii state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa (D) officially entered the open 1st congressional district campaign. She will oppose former 2nd district Rep. Ed Case in the Democratic primary. The two faced each other before, in the 2nd district, when Case was first elected. Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou will be the Republican nominee.

KY-6: In another district that has the potential of voting Republican but has a previously unchallenged Democratic Congressman (Ben Chandler), attorney Andy Barr (R) reports raising $185,000 for his fledging campaign.

NV-3: State Senator Joe Heck officially ended his campaign for Governor and will challenge freshman Rep. Dina Titus (D) in the 3rd district. Heck’s candidacy gives the GOP a strong candidate in a district that has grown more Democratic since it was originally drawn in 2001. Titus begins the race as the favorite.

NY-15: The rumor that Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) would step down from the House and allow Gov. David Paterson to run for his congressional seat has been squelched. Paterson says he has no interest in running for Congress and continues his quest to win election to a full term as Governor.

OH-16: Congressional candidate Jim Renacci (R), owner of the now defunct Arena Football League’s Columbus franchise, reports raising $202,000 in the first quarter of his campaign against freshman Rep. John Boccieri (D).

OH-18: 2008 GOP nominee Fred Dailey is saying he will seek a re-match with Rep. Zack Space (D). Republicans are looking to state Sen. Bob Gibbs, however, since Dailey ran a poor campaign and managed only 40% of the vote in a district that was originally drawn as a safely Republican seat.

PA-11: Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien (D) announced his primary opposition to scandal-tainted Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D). O’Brien has been publicly speculating about the race for months, and kicked off his effort by campaigning for 30 straight hours. Kanjorski reiterated his intention to seek a 14th term.

SC-5: House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt (D) drew what could become a competitive challenge from state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R), who officially announced his candidacy this week.

SD-AL: Term-limited Secretary of State Chris Nelson (R) announced that he will challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) next year. Nelson will first battle state Rep. Blake Curd for the GOP nomination. Herseth Sandlin is a decided favorite for re-election.

VA-5: It appears that Republicans successfully convinced their top choice of prospective candidates to challenge freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D). State Sen. Bob Hurt (R) officially announced his congressional campaign. This is one of the GOP’s best conversion opportunities in the country and is a virtual must-win, if the Republicans hope to make major gains next year.

Governor Update

California: The Field Poll, a favorite of California Democrats for decades, has new numbers on the battle to succeed GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. The survey (9/18-10/5; 1,005 California voters in both English and Spanish – not all respondents receiving the same questions) gives former Gov. Jerry Brown the lead in his quest to regain the state’s top position, some 28 years after leaving office. The poll shows Brown having a 20 point lead over San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom in the Democratic primary, 47-27%. He leads Republicans Meg Whitman 50-29%; former Congressman Tom Campbell 48-27%, and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner 50-25% in proposed general election match-ups. The long sampling period plus the questionnaire and language inconsistencies damage the survey’s reliability factor.

Iowa: Former four-term Gov. Terry Branstad (R) has formed a gubernatorial exploratory committee, signaling his intent to challenge Democratic incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D) next year. Branstad enjoys big early leads in polling and makes this once seemingly secure Democratic post very competitive.

Nevada: The aforementioned Mason-Dixon Nevada poll also shows deep trouble for GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons, while Rory Reid, the Senate Majority Leader’s son and Clark County Commissioner, doesn’t fare much better. While the younger Reid would beat Gibbons 49-37% in a hypothetical ballot test, Reid would lose to former US federal judge Brian Sandoval (R) 50-33%. In a three-way match-up that includes Independent Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, the trio breaks down into a 36-27-24% split in favor of Goodman, followed by Reid and Gibbons, respectively. Sandoval leads Gibbons in the Republican primary 41-20%.

New Jersey: Several new polls are out, all showing a continued close race, but incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) still cannot come close to majority support despite pulling even or ahead in some ballot tests. The Democracy Corps (10/6-7; 614 likely NJ registered voters), a Democratic firm led by former Clinton advisor James Carville, scores it 43% for Corzine, 40% for Republican Chris Christie, and 14% for Independent Chris Daggett. Survey USA, during the almost identical period (10/5-7; 639 likely NJ registered voters) registers the same margin, but order of candidates is reversed. SUSA has Christie up 43-40%, with Daggett tallying an identical 14%. Rasmussen Reports (10/5; 750 likely NJ registered voters) shows Christie with a 47-44% lead over Gov. Corzine, with Daggett only at 6%.

Virginia: The Washington Post conducted a new survey of 1,001 “certain” Virginia voters from October 4-7, and found Republican Bob McDonnell has a 53-44% lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds. This survey gives McDonnell his largest lead since the flap about his controversial Masters thesis where he expressed views about women in the workplace, abortion and contraception.

Arkansas: New polls are bringing more bad news for vulnerable Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln. Rasmussen Reports (9/28; 500 likely AR registered voters) shows Lincoln trailing all of her prospective Republican opponents, despite the voting populace not being familiar with any of the GOP candidates. State Sen. Gilbert Baker (R-Conway) does the best, polling ahead of Lincoln 47-39%. Three other virtually unknown Republicans have either two or three point leads.

Delaware: Rasmussen Reports (9/30; 500 likely DE registered voters) shows At-Large Rep. Mike Castle (R) leading Attorney General Beau Biden (D) 47-42%. Biden is the son of Vice-President Joe Biden. Neither candidate has officially announced for the open Senate race.

Kentucky: Rasmussen Reports (9/30; 500 likely KY registered voters) is showing a dead heat for the open race to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R). Attorney General Jack Conway (D) and Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) draw to a 40-40% tie. Grayson leads Democratic Lt. Governor and 2004 Senatorial nominee Dan Mongiardo 44-37%. When paired with the other GOP contender, Dr. Rand Paul (R), son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14), Conway leads 42-38% but Mongiardo trails 43-38%.

Nevada: Nevada GOP chair Sue Lowden officially announced her Senatorial bid against Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). She joins former Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian in the Republican primary field. Polls show both Lowden and Tarkanian leading Reid among Silver State voters.

Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac University (9/22-28; 1,100 registered PA voters) posts GOP challenger Pat Toomey to a 43-42% lead over party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter (D). Specter’s job approval is an upside down 44:48%, and 52% of the sampling universe does not feel he deserves a sixth term in office. Specter leads his Democratic primary opponent, however. The Senator enjoys a 44-25% lead over Delaware County Rep. Joe Sestak. In a Toomey-Sestak general election pairing, the Republican leads 38-35%.

South Carolina: Rock Hill, SC attorney Chad McGowan (D) is telling news sources that he will announce his Senatorial candidacy against first-term Sen. Jim DeMint (R) later this month. McGowan reportedly has personal financial resources that he is willing to invest in his campaign. DeMint is the prohibitive favorite for re-election in what is proving to be one of the most Republican states in the country,.

House Update

AZ-1: Freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) who swept to victory last November in what was previously a Republican seat, is about to draw major competition for her first re-election. Former state Senate Majority Leader Rusty Bowers officially filed a congressional exploratory committee, the first step to entering the race. The 1st district covers the majority of eastern Arizona. It is the geographic size of the state of Pennsylvania, and has only one city, Flagstaff, with more than 50,000 people.

NH-2: Moderate former Rep. Charlie Bass (R-NH-2), who lost to liberal Rep. Paul Hodes (D) in 2006, filed a congressional exploratory committee, signaling his increasing interest in attempting a political comeback. Radio host Jennifer Horn, the 2008 GOP nominee, is also planning to run. Hodes is vacating the seat to run for the Senate. Should Bass pursue his comeback, he would join ex-Reps. Steve Chabot (R-OH-1), Ed Case (D-HI-1), Steve Pearce (R-NM-2), and possibly David Davis (R-TN-1) as former members attempting to return to the House.

NV-3: Businessman John Guedry, who only in the last three weeks announced he would run for Congress, has already abandoned his campaign. This could lead to former state Sen. Joe Heck ending his long shot bid for Governor and instead dropping back to run for Congress to challenge freshman liberal Rep. Dina Titus (D).

NY-23: Gov. David Paterson (D) has officially called the replacement congressional special election for November 3rd, concurrent with the regular municipal elections. A brand new Siena University poll (9/27-29; 622 likely voters) gives Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava 35-28-16% lead over Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Doug Hoffman. This contrasts with a Basswood Research survey (9/17; 300 registered NY-23 voters), commissioned by Hoffman supporter Club for Growth, which showed Scozzafava’s lead to be only 20-17-17%. Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Hoffman’s campaign are running attack ads against Scozzafava, both hitting her for supporting certain NY state tax hikes.

OR-5: State Rep. Scott Bruun is preparing to enter the race against 1st term US Rep. Kurt Schrader (D). Bruun ran for Congress once before, in 1996, against Rep. Earl Blumenauer in the heavily Democratic 3rd district. The 5th is a marginal seat, making Bruun’s candidacy much more viable.

PA-4: Attorney Keith Rothfus (R) will officially become a candidate against sophomore Rep. Jason Altmire (D). House Minority Whip Mike Turzai (R) is saying that he, too, is considering running for Congress.

WV-1: State Senate Minority Whip Clark Barnes (R) is planning to announce his congressional candidacy against 14-term Rep. Alan Mollohan (D). The Congressman has been under a FBI investigation for several years for his securing earmarks for a non-profit organization run by his former staff members, in addition to scouring his wife’s real estate dealings. Since the investigation became public, Mollohan has continued romping to easy victories, garnering 64% in 2006 and being unopposed in 2008.

Governor Update

Arizona: Rasmussen Reports (9/27; 500 likely AZ registered voters) basically confirms the Public Policy Polling data that we reported upon last week. According to Rasmussen, Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard leads Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 42-35%. PPP scored the race 46-36% in Goddard’s favor.

California: Rasmussen also polled the California electoral (9/24; 500 registered CA voters) but with a very small sample size. The results reveal ex-Governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown (D) with a lead over former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R). RR pegs Brown to a 44-35% advantage. Against San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, however, the situation changes. In that match-up, Whitman takes a 41-35% lead.

New Jersey: Quinnipiac University (9/22-28; 1,188 registered NJ voters) also conducted another poll of the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race and though they show the race closing, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) remains under 40%. The ballot test breaks 43-39-12% in favor of Republican Chris Christie over Corzine and Independent Chris Daggett. The Corzine negative attacks against Christie appear to be working, as the former US Attorney’s favorability index has dropped to 38:38% positive to negative. Corzine’s favorable rating remains buried at 34:56%.

Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac similarly just reported the results of their Keystone State poll (9/22-28; 1,100 PA registered voters). It provides very good news for GOP Attorney General Tom Corbett. He leads Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) by a surprisingly large 47-28% margin. He tops state Auditor Jack Wagner (D) 44-29%. Corbett leads Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6) 42-13% in the GOP primary. On the Democratic side, Onorato has a slight 14-12-11% edge over Montgomery County Commissioner and former Congressman Joe Hoeffel and Wagner.

Virginia: Several polls continue to show Republican Bob McDonnell maintaining his lead over Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds. Rasmussen Reports (9/29; 500 registered VA voters) records the McDonnell advantage at 51-42%. Public Policy Polling (9/25-28; 576 registered VA voters) posts the race at 48-43%, McDonnell over Deeds; and Survey USA (9/25-28; 631 registered VA voters) gives the Republican an even greater advantage, 55-41%.

Vermont: Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) announced his candidacy to replace retiring GOP Gov. Jim Douglas. The Democratic nature of Vermont suggests the eventual Dem nominee will be the favorite, but Douglas did manage to win four consecutive two-year terms under the Republican banner.

Iowa: Rep. Bruce Braley’s (R-IA-1) name is again popping up as a potential challenger to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), but don’t believe that he’ll run. Rasmussen Reports (9/22; 500 likely IA voters) just completed a poll that shows Grassley remaining as the state’s most popular elected official. Grassley enjoys a favorability ratio of 68:30%. He leads former state Rep. Bob Krause (D) 56-30% in the only ballot test question included.

Massachusetts: Now that it is politically expedient for Democrats to do so, the Massachusetts legislature passed a new law that allows Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to fill by interim appointment any Senate vacancy. Making an appointment upon signing the bill, Patrick chose former Democratic National Committee chairman Paul Kirk to succeed the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D). Republicans asked for a court injunction to bar the appointment. Kirk immediately said he would serve only on a caretaker basis and not run in the December/ January special election that has already been scheduled. Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) is quickly becoming the prohibitive favorite to win the seat via the election process. Former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, in an announcement that generated little surprise, publicly stated that he will not be a candidate.

Missouri: A new Rasmussen Reports poll of Missouri voters (9/21; 500 likely MO registered voters) reveals a dead heat between Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO-7) and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D). Both candidates were claiming 46% of the vote. Each has virtually universal name ID, but Blunt’s favorability index is a bit higher – 57:33% versus 52:42%. This race is expected to be one of the closest in the country

Nevada: Former Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV-3) quickly quelled new speculation about him jumping into the Senate race against Majority Leader Harry Reid (D). Porter reaffirmed his intention to remain in the private sector, thus leaving the field to GOP state chair Sue Lowden and former Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian.

House Update

AR-2: Former GOP US Attorney Tim Griffin, who previously announced his decision to bypass a run for the US Senate, is prepared to announce his congressional candidacy against seven-term Rep. Vic Snyder (D). This could be an interesting race. Snyder never raises money in the off-year, and has less than $13,000 in his campaign account.

MO-4: As expected, state Sen. Bill Stouffer (R) is now officially running against 17-term Rep. Ike Skelton (D), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. Former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler is already in the GOP primary. This race is attracting interest because the district is now overwhelmingly Republican and Skelton, as an important committee chairman, is a member of the Democratic leadership team. President Obama could only muster 38% in 2008 against John McCain; President Bush garnered 64% in 2004 versus John Kerry (D).

NY-23: Rep. John McHugh (R) has won confirmation as Secretary of the Army, meaning the expected vacancy in the congressional district is now official. Gov. David Paterson (D) has wide latitude as to when he schedules the replacement special election, but the actual day of voting must come 30 days after his call. Democrats, Republicans, and Conservatives have already nominated their respective candidates in anticipation of the vacancy. Democrat Bill Owens is already running television ads. Republican DeDe Scozzafava, commonly viewed to be the most liberal Republican in the New York state Assembly, is already at odds with the National Republican Congressional Committee over ads attacking the Democratic nominee. Businessman Doug Hoffman is the Conservative Party nominee and has the financial assets to become a factor in the race. Early polling shows him at parity with Owens, but trailing Scozzafava.

SC-1: Carroll “Trumpy” Campbell III, son of the late Governor Carroll Campbell, has officially announced his Republican primary challenge to Rep. Henry Brown. The 1st district covers the area from Charleston through Myrtle Beach all the way to the North Carolina border, hugging the South Carolina coast. Brown is viewed as vulnerable because of his closer-than-expected performance last year, when he won his fifth term with just 52% in what should be a safe Republican district.

VA-2: Former Virginia Beach mayoral candidate and Navy SEAL Scott Taylor announced his congressional candidacy, becoming the sixth Republican to vie for the right to challenge freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D). None of the six, however, has previously won an elected post.

Governor Update

Arizona: Public Policy Polling (9/18-21; 617 likely AZ registered voters) reports the results of a new poll that exposes bad news for Gov. Jan Brewer (R). The survey shows a poor favorability rating (26:43%), reflecting widespread opposition to her call for new tax increases to balance the state budget. In ballot test match-ups, Brewer trails Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) 46-36%. Goddard also has a 45-37% lead over state Treasurer Dean Martin (R), who is also considering a gubernatorial run.

Georgia: The new Strategic Vision poll (9/18-20; 800 registered GA voters) reports little movement in the Peach State’s race for Governor. Former GA chief executive Roy Barnes (D) still leads Attorney General Thurbert Baker 45-30% in the Democratic primary. Republican Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine continues to maintain the advantage in his nomination battle. His lead is substantial: 38-15-10% over Secretary of State Karen Handel and Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA-9), respectively.

Iowa: Rasmussen Reports (9/22; 500 likely IA registered voters) reveals more bad news for liberal Gov. Chet Culver (D). They show Culver’s favorability index to be an upside down 43:50% (contrasted with the Des Moines Register’s 50:37% in their 9/14-16 survey [803 registered IA voters] conducted by Selzer & Associates). Culver would lose to former four-term Gov. Terry Branstad (R) by a lopsided 34-54% margin. Of even greater concern, RR finds that Culver trails businessman Bob Vander Platts 39-43%.

Maryland: A Gonzalez Research & Marketing Strategies study (9/8-17; 833 registered MD voters) over a rather long ten day period, posts Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) to a relatively strong re-election position. O’Malley would beat former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) 49-38% and RNC

chairman Michael Steele by an even larger 52-37% margin. Neither Republican is expected to
make the race, however.

New Jersey: As the November 3rd election draws closer, a large number of polls are being commissioned. All data still gives Republican Chris Christie a lead in his quest to unseat Gov. Jon Corzine (D). The range is from one to eight points, but the numbers still show Corzine unable to crack even 40% in any of the studies. Independent candidate Chris Daggett is treading into double-digits according to most of the polls.

New York: Controversy is swirling in New York, as reports are surfacing that President Obama is actively advising Gov. David Paterson to forego seeking re-election because his poor standing is damaging other Democrats. Paterson appears intent on running. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is poised to run, but has not committed to doing so despite polls showing he would easily depose Paterson for the Democratic nomination and would top the Republicans’ best candidate, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, according to several public and university surveys.

Pennsylvania: Former Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D), currently a member of the Montgomery County Commission, is about to enter the Democratic race for Governor. Hoeffel will attempt to claim the allegiance of his party’s leftwing, since the more moderate sector will be split among as many as three candidates: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, state Auditor Jack Wagner, and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox

Wisconsin: Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI-3) announced he will seek re-election and not enter the Democratic gubernatorial field. Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton is an announced Democratic candidate. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, a former Congressman, may likewise enter the race. Republicans feature Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Rep. Mark Neumann. This race is rated as a toss-up.

The Republican landslide of 1994 did not happen over night. Years of work from many dedicated people in and outside of Congress, joined with the proper political climate, propelled conservatives into the majority for the first time in generations. With Newt Gingrich setting strategy and developing themes, Tom DeLay and Vin Weber implementing the group’s plans, Bob Walker challenging the Democratic leadership with his great parliamentary command of legislative procedure, Jack Kemp laying down parameters for economic conservatism and Dick Armey doing the same for social issues, the House GOP became majority-ready, and finally won the opportunity to serve.

Now that Wilson has the ability to attract national attention, he can begin to play a role that we haven’t seen in many a year. When future Speaker Gingrich was a backbencher in the Democratic controlled House of Representatives, he and his team painstakingly planned strategy and tactics to make inroads for conservative principles, emphasizing policies that increased individual freedom and lessened government control of citizens’ daily lives. Now, some 20 years later, conservatives are back where we started, but the movement lacks the inside leaders to project a clear alternative for outside conservative organizations and rank and file community activists to assimilate and push forward. Gingrich still does good work, but he’s not an insider anymore.

The tea parties, town halls, and overwhelming response to help Wilson fend off the mounting liberal and media attacks ($1.5 million raised virtually unsolicited from all around the country in seven days) shows that a vibrant conservative movement continues to exist in real America. It doesn’t inside the halls of Congress, but maybe Wilson can become the lynch pin to re-establishing the effective vehicle that once was.

He can do so for several reasons. First, Mr. Wilson is well positioned on two committees that are important to setting a national conservative agenda – Armed Services, and Education and Labor. Second, he’s just proven that he can handle the well-orchestrated national attacks heaped upon any conservative that has the temerity to stand up for his principles. Third, he has a sound operational structure. With the guidance of his politically seasoned chief-of-staff, Eric Dell, who Wilson recruited back from the private sector to re-establish control of his entire operation soon after the last election, the South Carolinian has the tools – and now possibly the opportunity – to become the national inside conservative leader that the movement needs to advance and capitalize upon new political opportunities.

While most people would agree that Joe Wilson’s “you lie” outburst was inappropriate for a presidential speech in the House chamber, it is true Obama’s claim that his healthcare program won’t cover illegal aliens is false. The President cites language that specifically bans such coverage, but Speaker Pelosi and her lieutenants will not allow amendments to ensure that IDs are checked – similar to their position of prohibiting legal verification at the ballot box. Whether anyone is or is not lying is beside the point, but Joe Wilson’s analysis that any eventual healthcare legislation will cover non-citizens is correct — maybe not because of the President, but certainly courtesy of the Speaker.

Wilson was right to apologize to the President while simultaneously maintaining his political stance and integrity. Now, he must ascend to the next level. Let’s help him.

Senate Update

Colorado: A new poll again confirms appointed Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D) political weakness. Rasmussen Reports (9/9; 500 CO registered voters) shows the liberal Bennet leading Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) 43-37%, but trailing Aurora city Councilman Ryan Frazier (R) 40-39%. The campaign’s newest entrants, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) and ex-Lt. Governor Jane Norton (R) were not tested.

Kentucky: Research 2000 (8/31-9/2; 600 registered KY voters), polling for the leftwing Daily Kos national blog, stakes GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson to a lead against both top Democratic candidates. Versus Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo, Grayson leads 45-41%. When paired with Attorney General Jack Conway, the Republican scores a similar 46-40% advantage. In the Democratic primary, Mongiardo has a seven point lead, 37-30%, over Conway.

Massachusetts: Rasmussen Reports (9/8; 611 registered MA voters) released the first public poll of the Massachusetts special election field of Democratic candidates vying to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy. Attorney General Martha Coakley jumps out to the early lead, claiming 38% of the primary vote. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-9) is second with 11%; Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-7) has 10%; and Reps. Mike Capuano (D-MA-8) and John Tierney (D-MA-6) trail with 7 and 3%, respectively. Since the poll, Markey has indicated he will not run, as did former George W. Bush chief of staff Andy Card on the Republican side. State Senator Scott Brown is the only Republican candidate so far. Former Boston Red Sox baseball star Curt Schilling is still a possibility to run as an Independent, but such a move grows more unlikely every day that he fails to take action.

North Carolina: Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall filed papers forming an exploratory committee to challenge Sen. Richard Burr (R) next year. Democrats have been floundering to recruit a candidate since Attorney General Roy Cooper surprisingly decided not to run. Rep. Bob Etheridge (D-NC-2) is still saying he is considering the race, but Marshall’s entrance onto the scene makes it less likely that the Congressman will make the jump. New Public Policy Polling information shows Burr leading all potential opponents by eight to sixteen points, but does not break the 43% mark in any pairing.

Texas: Though Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is still indicating she will resign her seat to concentrate on her run for Governor, one of the people thought most likely to be appointed to replace her and then run in the subsequent special election, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst (R), has announced that he will seek re-election. African American state Railroad Commission member Michael Williams (R), meanwhile, is sounding confident that he will be appointed by Gov. Rick Perry (R) to succeed Hutchison. In a related development, Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert (R), is reportedly testing the waters about his own Senatorial candidacy should Hutchison go through with her promised resignation.

House Update

IL-14: State Sen. Randy Hultgren (R) is reportedly beginning to explore his chances of challenging Rep. Bill Foster (D) next year. Already in the GOP primary race is Ethan Hastert, son of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R), businessman Jeff Danklefsen, former Defense Department official Mark Vargas, and ex-Aurora city Councilman Bill Cross.

NY-23 A new McLaughlin Associates poll (8/25-26; 300 registered NY-23 voters) gives liberal GOP Assemblywoman DeDe Scozzafava a 30-20-19% lead over Democratic attorney Bill Owens and Conservative Party businessman Doug Hoffman. A special election will be held here, upon the confirmation and subsequent resignation of Rep. John McHugh (R) as Army Secretary.

ND-AL: Public Service Commission chairman Kevin Cramer (R), who twice challenged lackluster Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) in the 1990s, is planning another race in 2010. With backing from the National Republican Congressional Committee, Cramer has a chance of being a more formidable challenger this time around.

PA-3: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D), who is vulnerable in her first re-election in what should be a Republican district, is all of a sudden facing multiple GOP challengers. Joining Elaine Surma, an official in the PA Attorney General’s office, in the field of candidates is businessman Paul Huber. John Onorato, the former Erie County Solicitor (District Attorney), regarded as potentially the strongest challenger to Dahlkemper, is also sounding more and more like a candidate. This race will become a top Republican target in 2010.

SC-3: The crowded Republican field to succeed Rep. Gresham Barrett, who is running for Governor, got a bit smaller. Businessman Stuart Carpenter ended his campaign for Congress and endorsed state Rep. Rex Rice (R) upon departing. The eventual winner of the now seven-person field of Republican candidates will be the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

Governor Update

Arizona Tax-hiking Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, who is indicating she will run for a full term after succeeding Janet Napolitano when the latter left office to become Homeland Security Secretary, has very poor approval ratings. The Arizona Capital Times released the results of a poll they commissioned which pegs Brewer’s re-elect score to be only 18%, versus 46% who say they will vote for another candidate. State Treasurer Dean Martin (R) is a potential GOP challenger. Attorney General Terry Goddard (D) is the likely Democratic nominee. Brewer’s insistence on increasing taxes to fix the state’s budget deficit has sent her numbers through the floor.

Colorado: The aforementioned Rasmussen Reports Colorado poll also reveals continued weakness for Gov. Bill Ritter (D). The Governor trails former Rep. Scott McInnis (R) 44-39%, and leads state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry (R) by only two points, 41-39%.

Illinois: Gov. Patrick Quinn (D) released his own internal polling numbers that post him to a big advantage against his Democratic primary opponent, state Comptroller Dan Hynes. The Anzalone-Liszt survey (conducted over the period of 8/18-26) gives the Governor a 54-26% early primary lead.

Nevada: State Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley indicated that she will not be a candidate for Governor next year, leaving, at this point, the nomination for Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, Harry’s son. The two Reid’s could lead the statewide ticket next year in the Silver State, which is a double-bonus for the GOP, and double-trouble for the Democrats.

New Jersey: Two more polls show GOP challenger Chris Christie holding his lead against unpopular leftwing Governor Jon Corzine (D) as the November 2009 election draws closer. The Democratic firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/8-9; 615 likely NJ voters) polling for Stan Greenberg and James Carville’s Democracy Corps posts Christie to a 41-38% advantage. Rasmussen Reports (9/9; 500 likely NJ voters) gives Christie a bigger margin at 46-38%. These numbers have been consistent for months despite massive Corzine campaign spending.

Tennessee: Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN-3) released an internal Tarrance Group poll that gives him a lead in the crowded GOP gubernatorial field. The data shows him leading state Senate Speaker (the de facto Tennessee Lt. Governor) Ron Ramsey, Shelby County District Attorney Bill Gibbons, and Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam by a 22-15-14-12% count, respectively. Tennessee is one of the few southern states without a run-off law, so the winner of this primary race will only require a plurality of the vote.

Virginia: A new Survey USA poll (9/1-3; 611 likely VA voters) still shows Republican Bob McDonnell enjoying a large 54-42% lead despite being under severe attack from the Washington Post and opponent Creigh Deeds (D) for writing a controversial social issues thesis 20 years ago as a graduate student at Pat Robertson’s Regent University. Like in New Jersey, this gubernatorial election will be decided this November.