Senate Update

California: As expected, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) announced that she is forming an exploratory committee to determine her viability against leftist Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

Colorado: Public Policy Polling (8/14-16; 969 registered CO voters) again is reporting unfavorable numbers for appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Sporting a poor 31:38% favorable to unfavorable job approval ratio, Bennet trails former GOP Rep. Bob Beauprez 42-39%. He leads Aurora at-large City Councilman Ryan Frazier (R) 38-33% and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) 39-35%.

Florida (appointment): Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is narrowing down his list of prospective appointees to vacating Sen. Mel Martinez’s seat. Since Crist is running himself, he needs a person who will only serve as a caretaker for the final 17 months of the term. Surprisingly, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL-21) appeared on the list, but removed himself from consideration in order to remain in the House. Rep. Bill Young (R-FL-10), who is serving his 39th year in Congress, is also being mentioned. Young, 78, has already announced his intention to seek re-election to a 16th consecutive term in the House. Former Attorney General Jim Smith (R) and ex-US Attorney Bob Martinez (R) are also reported to be on Crist’s short list.

Florida (election): Two new Florida polls were just released. Rasmussen Reports (8/17; 1,000 likely FL voters; 470 Republicans) gives Gov. Charlie Crist a 53-31% lead over former FL House Speaker Marco Rubio in the Republican primary. Crist would lead Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17) 48-29% in a hypothetical general election. Rubio leads Meek by a similar 43-30%. Quinnipiac University (8/12-17; 1,136 registered FL voters) scores the GOP primary at 55-26%, Crist over Rubio, but did not poll the general election. For the first time, Quinnipiac detected President Obama’s job approval rating going into negative numbers. This particular Florida sample rated him 47:48% favorable to unfavorable. While the sample supports, 58-36%, the notion of a government health insurance program, by a margin of 35-62%, they oppose enacting a healthcare reform package in Congress that is supported only by Democrats.

Illinois: Chicago businessman Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., announced that he would not run for either Senator or Governor next year. This means the Democratic field will likely narrow to only two major candidates: state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson. The winner of the early February 2nd primary will almost assuredly face GOP Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10), who leads both Democrats in early polling. The 8/11 Rasmussen Reports survey (a small sample of 500 IL registered voters) has Kirk ahead of Giannoulias 41-38%; and leading Jackson 47-30%.

Kentucky: Survey USA just finished polling the Blue Grass State (8/15-17; 1,944 registered KY voters; 516 Republicans; 647 Democrats) and found GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson leading both major Democratic candidates. Grayson tops Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, the 2004
Senatorial nominee against retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R), 46-40%, and leads Attorney General Jack Conway (D) 44-37%. In the primaries, Grayson leads Rand Paul, son of US Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) and former presidential candidate, 37-26% on the Republican side. For the Democrats, Mongiardo enjoys a 39-31% lead over Conway.

House Update

FL-8: Florida House Speaker Larry Cretul is indicating that he will not challenge freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D). Republicans are not without a stable of candidates here, though, as former House Speaker and Senate Republican Leader Dan Webster and Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty remain possible candidates.

IL-10: Moderate Republican state Rep. Beth Coulson will announce her congressional candidacy on August 24. Her presence in the race gives the Republicans a shot at keeping one of their most marginal seats. Rep. Mark Kirk (R) is vacating to run for the Senate. Democrats have 2006-8 nominee Dan Seals, state Rep. Julie Hamos, and attorney Elliot Richardson.

IN-3: Dr. Tom Hayhurst (D), who challenged conservative Rep. Mark Souder (R) in 2006 (losing 54-46%), announced that he would seek a re-match in 2010. Last election, Democratic nominee Mike Montagano lost to Souder 55-40%, in what was originally touted as a competitive race. Souder, now tested in two consecutive elections, will begin this next campaign as the prohibitive favorite. The Congressman was originally elected in 1994.

MO-4: State Sen. Bill Stouffer filed congressional exploratory committee papers with the Federal Election Commission this week. Stouffer would represent the first significant challenge House Armed Services Committee chairman Ike Skelton (D) has faced in 28 years. Skelton, originally elected in 1976, has averaged 68.3% of the vote over 17 elections. The district is becoming increasingly Republican, however. John McCain scored a 61-38% victory over President Obama here last November.

NC-8: Former Rep. Robin Hayes (R) announced he would not seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D), the man who beat him last November. Republicans are hoping to recruit 2008 gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory into the congressional race.

PA-6: Two potentially strong Democratic candidates announced they would not seek the open congressional seat (Rep. Jim Gerlach running for Governor). State Sen. Andy Dinniman, commonly viewed as the Democrats’ strongest candidate, and 2008 nominee Bob Roggio now both say they won’t run for Congress in 2010. Former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer Doug Pike, at this point in time, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. State Rep. Curt Schroder and Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello are announced Republican candidates.

Governor Update

Florida: The previously referenced Quinnipiac poll (see Florida Senate election) gives GOP Attorney General Bill McCollum a 38-34% lead over Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink on the gubernatorial ballot test question.

Nevada: Federal Judge Brian Sandoval (R) announced that he will resign his seat on the bench in all likelihood to run for Governor. GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons faces martial difficulties, scandal, and big budget problems, which have driven his hard re-elect score to 11%. Rory Reid, son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and a Clark County Commissioner, is a possible Democratic candidate.

Pennsylvania: Montgomery County Commissioner and former US Congressman Joe Hoeffel (D-PA-13) is confirming that he is commissioning a poll to test his viability in the Governor’s race. The liberal Hoeffel vacated his congressional seat in 2004 to challenge then-Republican US Senator Arlen Specter, and was beaten 53-42%. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, state Auditor Jack Wagner, and Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox are the leading Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Attorney General Tom Corbett and Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA-6) are the top Republicans in the race.

South Carolina: House Minority Leader Harry Ott (D) ended his gubernatorial campaign this week and endorsed state Sen. Vince Sheheen in the Democratic primary. Scandal-tainted Gov. Mark Sanford (R) is term-limited. Republicans will have a crowded primary, but the eventual run-off winner will be the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

Texas: Austin kooky liberal state Sen. Kirk Watson (D) announced that he will not run for Governor next year in order to seek re-election to his legislative post. Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison are doing battle for the Republican nomination. Former Ambassador to both Japan and Australia Tom Schieffer (D), brother of CBS news correspondent Bob Schieffer, and country singer Kinky Friedman are the only Democrats officially in the race. The eventual Republican nominee will be the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

Virginia: The Washington Post released the results of their Taylor Nelson Sofres poll (8/11-14; 1,002 VA adults) and they too peg Republican Bob McDonnell to a large lead over Democratic state Sen. Creigh Deeds. According to the poll, 54% of those surveyed would support McDonnell compared to 39% who favor Deeds. Surprisingly, by a margin of 47-45%, people generally believe the Commonwealth of Virginia is on the right track. Most state surveys are
showing heavy majorities believing things have gotten seriously off course. The Washington Post poll is the fifth consecutive study that gives McDonnell the lead.

Wisconsin: Gov. Jim Doyle (D) will soon announce that he will not seek a third term in office. Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton becomes the early leader among Democrats, but it is unlikely that
she will have a free ride on the Democratic side. Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI-3) is telling supporters he is considering a gubernatorial run. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and former Rep. Mark Neumann are battling for the Republican nomination. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI-1) announced he will stay out of the Governor’s race and seek re-election to the US House. The open Governor’s race remains in the Toss-up column for the next election.