Senate Update

Illinois: State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has a substantial lead in the Senate Democratic primary according to a new political poll. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (7/28-8/3; 387 likely Democrat voters) projects Giannoulias to be ahead of Chicago businessman Chris Kennedy, the son of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson 45-17-13%, respectively. Kennedy is not likely to enter the race, as he recently expressed more interest in running for Governor. Jackson has publicly expressed a desire to run, but has made no official announcement of candidacy. GOP Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL-10) appears to be unimpeded for the Republican nomination and gives the party a real chance to win in November.

Pennsylvania: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA-7) made his campaign for the Senate official. Earlier this week he held kick-off events and contrasted his record with that of party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter. The two will square-off for the Democratic nomination, and the winner will face former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA-15) in the general election. Though Specter has a better than 20 point lead over Sestak in early polling, this race will close. The Senator could be in trouble here, as he attempts to win the Democratic nomination for the fist time in his career. Specter barely winning the D primary sets up the best-case general election scenario for Toomey.

House Update

CA-10: Ultra-liberal state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier (D) was dealt a setback in his quest to replace former Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D) in the upcoming special election. The State Department issued a directive that DeSaulnier was no longer allowed to publicize Tauscher’s endorsement of him. The former Congresswoman is now an Undersecretary of State. Lt. Gov. John Garamendi and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan are also strong Democratic candidates who are vying for the seat. Attorney David Harmer is the likely Republican nominee. The district will likely remain in Democratic hands. The first election is September 1st.

FL-8: In what will surely be a hard fought 2010 contest, kooky-left freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D) is refuting a National Republican Congressional Committee poll that shows him leading Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty by only a 37-34% margin. Grayson countered by releasing his internal data that posted him to a 46-40% lead. Either way, Grayson’s numbers are low, suggesting a close race is ahead for this marginal Orlando-area district. This is a top-tier challenge race for the GOP.

FL-16: Democrats successfully recruited their second choice of candidates to challenge freshman Rep. Tom Rooney (R). St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft announced he will run for Congress next year. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee originally tried to recruit state Sen. Dave Aronberg, but he decided to run for the state’s open Attorney General position. This is likely to be a race, but Rooney begins as the heavy favorite.

GA-9: State Senator Lee Hawkins became the seventh Republican to announce for the seat being vacated by Rep. Nathan Deal’s (R) run for Governor. Several state Reps, local officials and business owners are already in the race. The winner of the Republican run-off will hold the seat for the GOP.

MN-6: 2008 Democratic nominee Elwyn Tinklenberg (lost 46-44%) dropped his bid for a re-match with Rep. Michele Bachmann (R). Local Democratic-Farm-Labor party officials were pushing state Sen. Tarryl Clark, so Tinklenberg thought better of staying in a primary fight. Maureen Reed, who ran as an Independent in 2008, has also stated her intentions to enter the Democratic field of candidates for 2010. Bachmann won re-election is the worst of political climates. The political aesthetics should be much better for her in 2010.

MO-3: Ed Martin, chief of staff to former Gov. Matt Blunt (R) has filed an exploratory committee to analyze his chances of unseating Rep. Russ Carnahan (D). The seat, formerly represented by then-Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D), is heavily Democratic. President Obama scored 60% of the vote there last November despite losing statewide.

NH-2: Former state Sen. and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Fernald dropped his bid for the 2nd congressional district (Rep. Paul Hodes (D) running for Senate). This leaves Concord attorney Ann McLane Kuster as the only official Democratic candidate. Katrina Swett, wife of former Rep. Dick Swett (D-NH-2) and daughter of the late Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA-12), is expected to enter the race. Republicans have yet to find a consensus candidate. Democrats will be favored in the general election.

OH-12: Democrats successfully recruited Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks to challenge five-term GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi. The Congressman has always performed well in an increasingly marginal district. Brooks, however, may prove to be his toughest opponent since his original election. Every year, Tiberi is under-estimated and his Democratic opponent proves to be over-rated. The Congressman remains a big favorite, but the Democrats will be competitive here.

PA-6: Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello officially declared his congressional candidacy. He will face state Rep. Curt Schroder in the Republican primary. Former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial writer Doug Pike remains the lone Democratic candidate in what will now be an open seat contest. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) is running for Governor.

PA-7: Democratic state Rep. Brian Lentz says he will make a formal announcement that he’s running for Congress in September. Fellow state Rep. Greg Vitali is now openly considering entering the Democratic primary as well. Former US Attorney Pat Meehan is reportedly dropping his gubernatorial bid and will move over into this race. Republican businessman Steve Welch has already been up and running for some time. Incumbent Rep. Joe Sestak is running for Senate. Democrats will be favored to retain, but Meehan’s entry, should it definitely occur, will make this seat a higher GOP priority.

RI-2: State Rep. Elizabeth Dennigan (D) is telling supporters that she will challenge Rep. Jim Langevin in next year’s Democratic primary. Langevin was first elected in 2000 and fought off a similar primary challenge in 2006, when he captured 61.4% of the vote.

WI-3: Seven-term Rep. Ron Kind (D) may be facing his toughest challenge since he first won his congressional seat back in 1996. State Sen. Don Kapanke will run for the GOP, and should make this race competitive.

Governor Update

Iowa: Terry Branstad (R) is a successful four-term conservative Governor, but has not been in office since 1998. He now is being mentioned as a possible candidate against incumbent Gov. Chet Culver (D). Recent polling indicates that Culver is vulnerable. Branstad says he has not ruled out running again.

New Jersey: Research 2000, polling for the liberal Daily Kos national blog, (8/3-5; 600 likely NJ registered voters) gives GOP challenger Chris Christie a 48-40% advantage over Gov. Jon Corzine (D). Though this number still shows clear weakness for the incumbent, this is the first poll to have Christie under 50% from the last half-dozen that have been commissioned in the Garden State. All other recent polls show Christie enjoying larger leads.

South Carolina: Superintendent of Public Instruction Jim Rex, the only statewide elected Democratic office holder, has filed an exploratory committee to run for Governor. Originally viewed as a long-shot to enter the race, Rex reportedly reconsidered his ability to win after Gov. Mark Sanford’s extra-marital affair became national news. Sanford is ineligible to seek a third term. Republicans are favored to hold.

Virginia: Several new polls give Republican Bob McDonnell commanding leads over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the race to replace Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine. The latest poll, from the liberal Research 2000 (8/3-5; 600 likely VA registered voters) gives the Republican a 51-43% lead. Other polls show McDonnell’s lead as even larger. This is, of course, good news for McDonnell and the Republicans, but the race will go down to the wire in a state that is proving to be a prototype swing domain.