When you consider the political events of the past week and the ridiculous outrage drummed up by the radical left in the aftermath of the Tucson shootings, any reasonable person can see how delusional these attacks are.  In fact, a recent Gallup poll clearly shows that a clear minority of this country are believing the recent outrage against conservatives and the Tea Party, even as the media does its job of trying to advance the story.  There is a deeper storyline here however, and one that I can’t help but wonder is a planned effort on the part of the left as we gear up for the 2012 presidential election.

The country is divided up generally 3% hard left, 33% hard right, and 33% independents/moderates.  These are the segment of people whose votes may swing from D to R for any number of reasons.  Some people would say this division is more like 40-40-20.  Nonetheless, after this past November it is obvious the shift in the country has turned away from Obama and the Democrats.  Although the left is many things, stupid is not one of them and they know that barring a drastic change in the next two years, their candidate is in trouble.  

Now, if the economy were to bounce back with unemployment dropping 2-3 points, along with the “smooth cool” of Obama, the Left would be feeling pretty good about their chances of reelecting him.  However, with all the economic uncertainty, that level of growth is in no way assured or even probably in 21 months and so there needs to be a “Plan B”.  Plan B could very well be what we are currently seeing…

The general outrage against the hard left in this country could not get more severe than it did in November.  Sure they could act even more ignorant and politically suicidal, but because of the 33% base of support their disapproval will most likely not go any lower.  Knowing this, Obama and the left have begun using this as a base from which to redefine who he is and remold him as the moderate 53% of the country who voted for him thought he was.  Obama’s speech last night was a great example of this.  The Left is the Left and that won’t change, but Obama can use his beloved Left as a means to illustrate his great political savy and move to the center.

Consider the lame duck session of Congress as another example.  Obama was able to get many things done, some in opposition to base of his party, and in the process position himself as a moderate even though he is not.  By extending the tax levels he kept the status quo, gave the country what it had just said it wanted via the election results, and was also able to distance himself from the base of his own party.  If you look at his approval numbers on RCP, they are already trending upwards…even in Rasmussen’s poll which has been the hardest on the president.

With the House in Republican hands the Left knows no real legislation they desire will be passed.  With the Senate and the proposed rules changes, presidential appointments could get easier to pass in this next congress.  Between the expanse of executive power through the appointment of unelected officials these past two years a.k.a ”czars” and the continued appointment of leftist officials in the coming two years, the Democrats are happy consolidating their power gains and policies for the time being to include their biggest win Obamacare.

Now back to my original point.  The Left is more than willing to sacrifice a little “face” of which they have little left anyway, in order to play the bogeyman for their president to improve his standing with the middle portion of the electorate.  If a more centrist and moderate Obama can peel back enough independents by November of 2012, especially against what is perceived to be a weaker Republican primary field, they can get Obama reelected for another term, all but ensuring Obamacare and other laws are institutionalized before they can be repealed. 

This will be the challenge of conservatives and conservatism:  How can we keep our message clear and above the foray of what the Left and the media will attempt to muddle?  For if conservatives fail to delineate our message and fail to remind people of what Obama and the Left did in 2009-2010, it very well could be forgotten by the middle 33% in 2012 and as a result…four more years. 

Be wary of these red herrings where Obama moves to the middle against the bombast of his own party and mainstream media which the public already knows is full of leftists anyway.  The irony is that apart from some spending cuts he won’t even have to legislate against the Left because the Left still holds the Senate.  He will only have to move to the middle in style, not form.  Moreover, It is entirely possible for a sympathetic and forgiving spirit to develop in the American middle for a man of temperance, such as Obama will try to portray himself.  We conservatives may not like it, but an Obama back up at 55% approval rating will be the favorite for reelection in 2012.  As of yet, I don’t have answers on how to combat this since their strategy is reactionary to events and circumstances, but we must be vigilant in identifying it and working hard against such a shift.  Obama is not Franken, Dean, Olbermann, etc.  He is likable and people want to like their president.  We need continually help people get back the “I like him” place they will default to and get to the substance of his political ideology which is hurting our country.  The task ahead is not an easy one.

Now let’s not count our chickens before they hatch, but it seems as if Nevada is moving toward Sharon Angle heading into the weekend.  If as we all hope, Harry Reid is defeated on Tuesday several dominos are going to begin to fall.

First, the Senate will probably be tilting in the 49-51 range and overall control may be up for grabs with West Virginia and Washington being the deciding states.  So majority status will be tenuous as we wait for final outcomes.

Second, there will be a mad scramble in the democratic caucus between Durbin and Schumer to lock up the votes for leader as Harry Reid did in the morning hours after Daschle was defeated by Thune in 2004.  With his strong influence in the 06 and 08 democratic surge, most people are giving the edge to Schumer to overcome Durbin and to capture the leaders post.

Third, the law of “unintended consequences” will come into play.  As much as I (we) loathe the soft-spoken Reid, can you imagine the bombastic Chucky Schumer being the voice of democrats in the Senate over the next umpteenth number of years?  I think this bodes well for us nationally, but to have to listen to Chucky more than we do now is not something I am looking forward to. 

However, as I stated, we need to finish the job and defeat Reid on Tuesday.  However, in our mind’s eye, can’t you see Chucky running for the cameras and microphones in the years to come?  Does that make you smile or grimace???  Come on Nevada, give us this bitter-sweet opportunity!!!

As Mike Castle considers a write-in candidacy for the Senate seat in Delaware, Republicans with any hope of winning the Delaware seat should cheer him on.  Yes, we who have (rightly) excoriated Lisa Murkowski in Alaska, should be praying that Castle jumps into the race.  “How can this be?” you may ask…it is pretty simple actually:

1) Christine O’Donnell, although well meaning, sincere, pleasant, and the more conservative candidate in the Delaware Republican primary, is a political mess.  The dust is settling, it has been ten days since her stunning upset of Castle, and she has gotten nowhere in the polls.  She is steadily 15 points behind Coons and it appears is slowly losing ground.  The exciting 1.5 million dollars raised from the first 36 hours after her primary win has diminished significantly and she has brought in roughly .7 million in the past 8 days.  

Though none of us are perfect, most of us have not said our “bone-headed stuff” on the Bill Maher show.  Her voracious desire to be on TV, be recognized, and have her 15 minutes of fame over the years have destroyed her pre-candidate biography and she is currently a “30 second sound-bite mine field”.  It is likely that her current favorability and polling numbers have in fact peaked due to the deluge of bad press framing her, correctly or incorrectly, as a non-serious candidate.  This is a result of the outside negative press but fueled and kept alive by her own foolish past comments and interviews.  If Christine is going to win, and that is a BIG “if”, she is going to need some help…

2) Enter Chris Coons.  He is an inexperienced and flawed candidate who also has a questionable past.  He has said and done some things which leave him as the leading candidate in Delaware by default.  In a liberal state like Delaware he is currently the lesser of two evils.  Regular Delaware folks who may be inclined to jump on the current political “wave” and vote the bums out are probably scared off by the extreme label effectively placed on O’Donnell.  These middle ground people will either not vote or when they vote they will begrudgingly cast their vote with Coons.  There is a very soft middle in Delaware as seen in the drastic difference in polling between Castle & Coons (Castle by 15 points) and Coons & O’Donnell (Coons by 15 points).  That is a swing of 30 points and 30 points is a great base from which to start for a 3rd party candidacy.  It is obvious that Coons is weak and between he and O’Donnell the field could be ripe for…

3) Mike Castle reenters the race as a write in candidate and accomplishes one of two things.  If he reframes himself as the credible Delaware-conservative candidate to stop Washington he could serve the Conservative cause quite well in denying the Dems the senate this cycle and helping achieve a possible 60 seats in the next wave election, 2012.  Those who have walked through the embarrassment of O’Donnell the past 2 weeks are probably with her for the long run.  Her support will most likely not drop below 30-33 percent.  That leaves 70-67% of the electorate still up for grabs.  If Mike Castle jumps in and can take 30-33 percent of the remaining electorate, we have a 3-way barnburner in Delaware on November 2nd.  This is VERY GOOD NEWS…

If Christine O’Donnell is a good candidate and can turn things around, she will only need 35-37% of the vote to win.  If O’Donnell continues to drag and holds 30% support, Castle only needs to get 35-37% of the vote in order for him to win the seat.  What this does is increase the less than 15% odds of winning the seat in the current political landscape and increases the odds both for O’Donnell and for himself should he enter.  Either way, it appears Castle helps the Republicans win this seat.   

Finally, this is especially important as it appears that the Republicans may land right on a 9 seat pickup in November.  How sad will we will be if next January the Senate stays in the Dems hands on a tie-breaking vote by Delaware’s former Senator because Delaware’s new senator grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat because of the well intentioned but ineffective upset in the Republican primary back on September 14th. 

Since the primary Delaware has become an afterthought and is dropping off the radar as a possible flip for Republicans.  Castle’s entry could help him and O’Donnell and definitely helps the cause of taking back the Senate this cycle and making a push for 60 in 2012.

Erick’s recent post about the left bloggers is true, but Bayh’s hatred of the senate is not his primary reason for leaving. Bayh is very comfortable with a partisan environment and not as moderate as he would like people to think. He has a very liberal voting record for a senator from the red state of Indiana (yes 2008 was an anomaly).

Bayh most likely would like a shot at the presidency in the future as he is only in his 50s. If he stays in the senate with the reduced number of Democrat senators, he will either be exposed to additional liberal votes that are bad for the country and really bad for any presidential prospects, or he will have to vote against his party and hurt his future chances of winning any democratic presidential primary. This is being reinforced by Obama’s continued path to the left, rather than the path to the center that Clinton chose in 1995, and which ultimately saved his presidency. So staying in the senate next year hurts him either way.

Secondly, Bayh has accumulated over 13 million dollars in his campaign war chest. Twelve months ago most of this money was safe as he was going to cruise to reelection. However, with the changing landscape and with a credible opponent taking him on from the Republican side, all that money is in jeopardy. Bayh probably could have and would have won reelection considering all the baggage Coats is bringing into the race, but it would have come at a deep cost. Much of the paybacks…ahem…campaign contributions from wall street, bankers, automotive industry, and everyone else the left is extorting to pass their agenda have already been given. 13 million dollars is a lot of money to replace and that sum is a great down payment on a democratic presidential run.

The prospect of being elected to a senate environment which would hurt him politically and having to waste 13 million dollars to get there is ludicrous and Bayh figured this out. So, he blames the lack of bipartisanship which he rarely actually pursued. He claims the role of the “unaccepted moderate” which Nelson, Pryor and Landrieu honestly can more easily claim. And he walks valiantly into the sunset as a “man of principal” with his millions ready for the right time and place to return and save the Democratic Party from the present demise. Well played Senator Bayh! I am intrigued to see if your plan eventually works.

During his recent tour around the country, err….Ohio, after getting pummelled by the “independent” voters of Massachusetts, President Obama stopped for a rally in Elyria, OH.  His purpose there was to give a jobs speech as he pivots and tries to salvage his own presidency and the Democratic party he now leads.  However, a slight problem was uncovered by Americans for Prosperity.  What was purported as a “jobs speech” turned into something all too familiar….(I found this quite entertaining as well)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9UIpW_3P5s&feature=player_embedded

This video combined with the recent revelation from retiring Democratic U.S. Representative from Arkansas, Marion Berry.  When he and other moderate democrats were expressing their concerns about reelection and not repeating the devastating mid-term election of 1994, Representative Berry says this:

The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, ‘Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.’ 

What an interesting and intriuging election year this shall be.