I have seen some discussion today on two polls that have Barack Obama in a double digit lead in VA. I am here to discuss these polls because one of them had 269 Democrats out of 600 participants and what does that say? That 44 percent of those questioned were Democrats in a state that George Bush carried by 8 percent.
Than the second one asked 666 likely voters and the Democrats are represented by 39 percent and Republicans by 30 percent AGAIN in a REDSTATE that George Bush won by 8 percent.
SurveyUSA is a bogus polling organization anyway but here are the crosstabs
The funniest part of the SurveyUSA poll is that 39 percent of Democrats consider themselves moderate….what a joke.
The lesson here my friends is DO NOT BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU READ!
Dan McLaughlin
Moe Lane
Neil Stevens
Steve Maley
So party identification never changes?
Reaper0Bot0 (formerly Han_Pritcher) (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 5:33PM EST (link)Especially in light of the demographic shifts in Northern Virginia? I’m not saying that those polls are gospel, but I’m not sure it is wise to dismiss them so easily. Four years is a long time.
I’m a lying troll.
AHHH No they don't
PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 5:39PM EST (link)They didn’t change much when Ronald Reagan was win in Mega Landslides & i didn’t change much when Bubba Clinton was President either
People vote for the Person not the party, BUT please continue your Ignorant Bliss on this subject
Party ID does change
Daniel Glenn (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 5:42PM EST (link)but the numbers used to weight for Party ID for a certain poll can be rigged. For more about rigging polls, read How to Lie with Statistics.
The point that I believe Jaded was trying to make is this: I could come up with a poll that shows Bob Barr will win in a landslide, but the poll wouldn’t necessarily be accurate.
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“In an insane society, reality is outside of the mainstream.”
“If people are not free to trade with each other, all other freedom is meaningless.”
Don’t blame me. I voted for McCain.
For what it's worth!
pwest (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 5:44PM EST (link)I mentioned this yesterday to you, PA! I have a former student who works for the McCain Campaign in VA; they are sending him to MO from Oct 31st-Nov 5th. I asked him if that means they feel good about the state; his reply, “the northern part of the state is full of commies; the southern part will carry them over.” The Campaign wouldn’t seed him to MO if they thought they were in trouble in VA. That doesn’t make any sense.
Pam
That confirms My Beliefs
PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 5:48PM EST (link)Thanks Pam!! I told you & others relax Va. is fine as is N.C. & Indiana
One more thing about polls
Daniel Glenn (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 5:50PM EST (link)Why does anyone give credibility to a poll by DailyKOS/Research 2000? Wouldn’t this be the poll where the bias would be detectable just from reading the organization name?
Anyway, enough about polls (at least for now).
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“In an insane society, reality is outside of the mainstream.”
“If people are not free to trade with each other, all other freedom is meaningless.”
Don’t blame me. I voted for McCain.
Take a look at the CBS poll
pwest (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 5:58PM EST (link)47-43 Obama; if CBS has it, you know it is closer. Then that does bring us to three polls: CBS, ZOGBY, and Dem poll. Two of the three are Democrat polls and they show McCain with in 4, and Zogby tends to be Liberal as well.
Remember, stay in engaged and enraged for the next month.
Pam
dglenn You're right about Kos
PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 5:58PM EST (link)& the Hotline poll has been Linking it, That ought to tell you all you need to know about the Hotline poll & hotline itself
On top of the fact that Craig Crawford, Chuck Todd & Vaugh Ververs were the Editor of Hotline all 3 are Leftists, Craig Crawford is at CQ, Chuck Todd is NBC’s “politcal Diretor” whatever that means & Ververs works for CBS Need I say more
daniel
PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:07PM EST (link)you are forgetting operation chaos by Rush when he got Reps. to change Party Affiliation to vote for HRC to extend the D primary & bloody up Obama These pollsters are taking that as Reps. Changing to Dems. for good not part of operation chaos
Exactly dglenn! and let me add that I live here in Northern VA....
JadedByPolitics (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:07PM EST (link)and while Alexandria, Arlington, Falls Church….all closer to DC will go blue….Centreville, Manassas, Leesburg, Front Royal will NOT….and they are considered part of Northern VA.
Richmond will go blue but Norfolk will not and area’s near WV will NOT and I could go on and on BUT these are bogus polls and the reality is that ANY pollster worth their grain would have Republicans at 38 and Democrats at 30 than Independents to have a fair hearing because this is STILL a REDSTATE!
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It's 4 with registered Voters & 3 with likely voters
PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:12PM EST (link)which tells you it’s Cooked The Rep. candidate gains more than 1 point when the polling goes from Registered to Likely voters which tells you it’s EVEN closer than what they’re trying to sell
McCain should be very concerned about Southwest VA.
Vaughn Harold (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:14PM EST (link)I live in North East TN near SW VA and Obama is using the only local country station WXBQ 96.9 & 910 AM (talk radio)heavily to reach into SW VA “coal country”. I have heard 3 adds in the past 5 days (I’ve listen to these stations about 2 hours at the most in those 5 days), and have yet to hear a response from McCain. One of Obama’s adds tells a complete and total lie that McCain is against clean coal tech. I was totally floored when I heard it! The other add that I heard twice is the voice of a very folksy local SW VA telling folks to vote Obama. Both adds are approved messages of Obama.
This is not something McCain can let slide! The livelyhood of most of these people is coal. Palin is the right person to send in to this area to straighten out the record.
They know what they're doing
PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:16PM EST (link)Harold
Actually,
Daniel Glenn (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:18PM EST (link)I was kind of wondering about how Op. Chaos has affected the party ID targets, and thus the polls. There is no real way to tell what % increase in Dem affiliation can be attributed to El Rushbo, but my guess would be 2-5% tops, to play it conservatively.
This is tangential to my main point though, which was that every four years, organizations on both sides do voter registration drives, thus increasing Party ID numbers on both sides. The weenies from moveon.borg have been registering people on my campus, but how many of them will actually is another issue becuase young people are historically speaking unreliable voters. This would actually make a good a post…I’ll try and do that this weekend.
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“In an insane society, reality is outside of the mainstream.”
“If people are not free to trade with each other, all other freedom is meaningless.”
Don’t blame me. I voted for McCain.
Just got back from the phone bank (Pennsylvania)
Uma Richie (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:27PM EST (link)I’m not going to go into too much detail on whom I’ve been talking to about what (OPSEC and all that). Since my last post on phone banking, we’ve been hitting what I consider the GOP base. I perceive NO CHANGE in enthusiasm since this bailout mess began. The only difference is that the voters are more concerned about the economy than in previous weeks.
Also, the traffic flow through local GOP HQ continues to be constant, and the phone bank was fully manned with volunteers as usual.
It’s not a poll. It’s not scientific, but my feel is that the base is not eroding, and as long as McCain/Palin can address the economy satisfactorily while discrediting Obama/Biden on same, this election is still up for grabs.
PaRep,
pwest (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:34PM EST (link)take a look at the comment I made to Martin Knight and his post on “the only poll that counts is the one on election day.” Let me know what you think!
Pam
Han, Party ID does change, but not that drastically
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:36PM EST (link)In 2006, the Dems best year since 1992, Virginia party ID was 39R/36D/25I. And they elected (barely) a blue dog Dem for Senate after the macaca mess.
A change that dramatic in the course of 2 years would be unheard of, since the Whigs ceased to exist.
It is possible that the Dems and Reps are equal in Virginia now, but I really doubt it. All the Republicans move from Maryland to Virginia to get away from the liberals.
Regardless, a 44% Dem party ID, or even a 39D/30R breakdown has no historical basis. You need a reason for such a breakdown, and you can’t run an 800 sample size without applying a sampling methodology. The sample size is too small to be accurate otherwise.
Now you could use Party ID during registration which is an ok method for Florida and a questionable method in Pennsylvania. Except, Virginia does not record party ID when you register to vote. The only thing you can look at is historical party identification in past elections.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
Excellent post, but
bluechiplaw (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:39PM EST (link)“effect” is a noun, and “affect” is a verb. Just fyi; I’m not even sure how many people know this.
To Kowalski
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:43PM EST (link)I personally think all the Virginia and North Carolina talk is a distraction by Obama. I think he wants to sucker McCain into spending resources in either of those two states, while he picks off some combination of Florida/Ohio/New Mexico/Colorado.
If Virginia goes blue, then so do all the other swing states. Frankly, if McCain loses Florida, then he will lose everywhere and Obama will have a landslide. But that is a tall order for Obama. Population grown in Florida has been in the panhandle (solid Red) and the I-4 corridor (solid Purple). The Democrat bastions in South Florida have been in decline since 2000.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
bluechiplaw.....point taken and corrected!
JadedByPolitics (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:44PM EST (link)thanks
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Democrat moderates
GremlinJones (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:46PM EST (link)I’m curious as to why you are amused that 39% of Democrats consider themselves moderate?
Because I find that if those 39 percent of Democrats were moderate....they would not vote for the most liberal Senator they woud vote with moderate candidate who happens to be McCain!
JadedByPolitics (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 6:51PM EST (link)nt
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Not to be Brutally frank
PaRep (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 7:16PM EST (link)But the Democrat arwea are Snowbirds who have moved ffrom the NE & MA states & are elderly & are Dying off, AS Dennis Leary once said the Average age a Florida is DECEASED
God's waiting room.
MrSandman (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 7:18PM EST (link)“Americans can no longer trust the economic information they are getting from this Administration.”
— Republican Senator Jim DeMint
Tell me about it
Dave_in_Fla (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 7:34PM EST (link)My parent’s representative in Don Young, who has been serving since 1970.
They all call him “junior” around the trailer park.
“If they were merely incompetent, then at least SOME of their actions would have been to the benefit of the country.” – Joe McCarthy
What are the ground operations like in Virginia?
Lysander the Spartan (Diary) Monday, October 6th at 8:56PM EST (link)Are the Republicans putting up a serious ground game in Virginia? The Socialist Media have constantly reported how Obama has people everywhere in these toss up states. Is that true??
Lysander
The one thing that worries me in all of this...
destroyr Tuesday, October 7th at 1:20AM EST (link)is Rasmussen. I was under the impression that they were usually the closest thing around, if not slightly red tilting. But lately Rasmussen has it bluer than just about anyone. What gives? Has Ras been overrun by evil minions of Dr Driveshaft (David Axlerod’s alias whenever he gets together with his SPECTRE buddies)?
Same with Ohio
Daniel Glenn (Diary) Tuesday, October 7th at 3:45PM EST (link)When I registered out here, I didn’t see anything about party affiliation. Which really means that the use of party ID number in OH polls are ridiculous to use because for that matter, you could get all your party ID numbers from Cleveland, which is pretty blue, but then get all of your polling data from Cincinnati and Dayton, which tend to be purplish.
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“In an insane society, reality is outside of the mainstream.”
“If people are not free to trade with each other, all other freedom is meaningless.”
Don’t blame me. I voted for McCain.