Now that the elections in NJ and VA are over - and now that there’s going to be some really critical votes coming up on cap-and-trade and health care rationing - I just wanted to greet some members of the two states’ Congressional delegations.

• Robert Andrews, NJ-01 (Burlington/Camden/Gloucester)
• John Adler, NJ-03 (Burlington/Camden/Ocean)
• Frank Pallone, NJ-06 (Middlesex/Monmouth/Somerset/Union)
• William Pascrell, NJ-08 (Essex/Passaic)
• Steven Rothman, NJ-09 (Bergen/Hudson/Passaic)
• Donald Payne, NJ-10 (Essex/Hudson/Union)
• Rush Holt, NJ-12 (Hunterdon/Mercer/Middlesex/Monmouth/Somerset)
• Albio Sires, NJ-13 (Essex/Hudson/Middlesex/Union)

(Link)

• Glenn Nye, VA-02 (Accomack/Northampton)
• Robert C Scott, VA-03 (Charles City/New Kent/Surry/Henrico/Prince George/Hampton/Newport News/Norfolk/Richmond)
• Tom Perriello, VA-05 (Greene/Campbell/Bedford/Albemarle/Nelson/Fluvanna/Buckingham/Cumberland/ Appomattox/Prince Edward/Charlotte/Lunenberg/ Franklin/Henry/Pittsylvania/Halifax/Mecklenberg/Brunswick)
• Jim Moran, VA-08 (Arlington/Alexandria/Fairfax)
• Rick Boucher, VA-09 (Lee/Wise/Dickenson/Buchanan/Scott/Russell/Tazewell/Washington/ Smyth/Bland/Giles/Grayson/Wythe/Pulaski/Montgomery/Carroll/Craig/Floyd/ Patrick/Allegheny/Roanoke/Henry)
• Gerry Connolly, VA-11 (Fairfax/Fairfax/Prince William)

(Link)

Hi!

WE SEE YOU.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

New York’s 23rd Congressional District is, at this writing, too close to call, but it looks like the GOP Establishment’s candidate helped throw the race to the Democrat after the GOP spent $900,000.00 on her. That said, the Democrat’s lead keeps shrinking and there are 10,000 absentee ballots to count. We know for certain that if we combined the Republican and Conservative votes, that team would win.

What we do know for sure, from Virginia and New Jersey, is that in elections without the unusual circumstances of NY-23, is that the voters threw out the Democrats big time.

In Virginia, for the second time in history, the Republican Party swept all statewide offices. In New Jersey, despite multiple campaign trips by Barack Obama and his top pollster flown in to run Corzine’s campaign, Republican Chris Christie trounced Corzine. In Pennsylvania, the Democratic State entrusted its Supreme Court to the Republican Party, which could help the GOP in redistricting next year.

In every state in which Barack Obama campaigned for a candidate, the candidate lost. Too bad he did not make it up to NY-23.

More importantly, according to political expert Larry Sabato, there have only been two occasions when Virginia and New Jersey so thoroughly flipped to the opposite party: in 1993, before the GOP take over of Congress in 1994, and in 2005, before the Democrats took back Congress in 2006.

This signals the potential for great Republican gains in the House and Senate next year.

We also know, based on how Doug Hoffman is trending, that the GOP Establishment, if it continues to turn its back on the conservative base, will keep losing. Had the NRCC not so throughly botched NY-23, we would not be in this particular situation tonight.

The man who thought that he could take over the Corzine campaign and drive it to victory.

Have a nice night.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

According to the Politico, Chris Christie is the winner of the New Jersey Governor’s race.

It’s going to be late before we know anything about Harmer in CA-10.

As for the rest, it looks like the love affair is over. In 2008, the American public voted for Barack Obama to prove they weren’t racist and in 2010 the same public is voting for Republicans to prove they aren’t socialist.

For the 2nd time in history, the GOP swept Virginia’s statewide races, picking up Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General.

It looks like Christie is going to win New Jersey barring some last minute miracles for Corzine.

It is also looking good for Hoffman in NY-23.

We still won’t know about New Jersey and New York for a while, but the trend lines are good.

UPDATE: RNC Chairman Michael Steele just hopped a plane to New Jersey. Signs are pointing to a Christie victory.

UPDATE 2: Keep in mind on Doug Hoffman that 3 counties will not report their results online and one county, Fulton, has had a machine breakdown and will not report its results until tomorrow.

Results here.

[UPDATE]: With only 2% of the vote in (50/41/8 Christie/Corzine/Daggett) it’s far too early to call it; but if Daggett stays single-digits Corzine is going to need at least 47% to win this. I don’t think that he’s ever gotten that… nope, he hasn’t.

[UPDATE] 53%: Christie/Corzine 49/45. Don’t jump up and down yet, though.

From a pollster friend:

I’m sensing the NJ exits maybe skewed to Dems…they had Health care at 18%, most important issue. Economy was #1 at 31% and property taxes 2 at 25%. Corruption was at 20%. Property taxes was always the #1 issue in everyone’s statewide.

UPDATE: North New Jersey Democrats are beginning to fret that Corzine did not pick up enough support in the area to over come exit pollings that, even skewed to the Democrats, show Christie picking up +50% of independents and Corzine less than 40%.

Via Election Journal, somebody tried to steal this guy’s vote.

In fact, as EJ noted earlier, they still might - thanks to the Democratic party’s attempt to keep the rules for absentee ballots as loose as possible. If the absentee ballot is deemed the valid one…

Moe Lane

PS: Final question: how many people who didn’t go out to vote today ended up voting in NJ, after all?

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

I’m hearing across the board that things are looking good. It’s early, obviously, but in sampling Democrat and Republican precincts, the GOP precincts are seeing higher turn out that the Democrat precincts in key areas. That suggests GOP enthusiasm is much higher.

Notable too, the Democrats are already pushing out their talking points on how Corzine and Deeds losses do not reflect on Barack Obama.

Just remember this data when Democrats keep saying it does not reflect on Obama. Then ask what they’d be saying by wins.

I’ll keep you posted as I learn more.

Josh Marshall says the GOP is going to fire up the vote fraud stories. Of course, Josh Marshall already has logged into the TPM queue mass stories of voter suppression that he will blame on the GOP.

Because, you know, the GOP always suppresses black turn out, but ACORN never commits fraud.

And we know that given what is happening on the ground right now, the GOP just might sweep. New Jersey is going to be close, but then there have already been a few Democrats alleging voter fraud in municipal elections.

In any event, while Josh is waiting for the voter fraud stories he will work overtime to disprove as credibly as he failed to disprove Bobby Jindal’s hurricane story [Note to Josh: Moving the goal posts with every draft is not actually disproving the facts], he’s going to have to work closely with Media Matters and the DNC to also create a flurry of stories about the evil GOP suppressing the vote.

It’ll be a busy night for TPM’s overworked narrative.

The Obama administration and the media are together going to downplay today’s electoral victories for the GOP.

They will, to the mainstream media, not be relevant to or any sign of a rebuke against Barack Obama and his far left agenda.

In fact, the media is already beginning the narrative that we cannot see today as a referendum on Barack Obama.

Consider these facts:

New York 23

• Barack Obama sent Joe Biden to visit.
• Obama’s White House negotiated Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of the Democrat.
• Scozzafava and Owens both supported and campaigned on supporting the stimulus.

New Jersey

• Obama sent his top pollster to take command of the race.
• Obama visited multiple times, including the day before the election.
• Obama is featured in most of Corzine’s advertising.
• The Democratic Governors Association and DNC all pumped in a ton of money.
• Corzine ran on helping Obama at the state level.

Virginia

• The Democratic Governors Association spent $4 million to get Creigh Deeds elected.
• The Democratic National Committee spent $6 millino to get Deeds elected.
• Obama campaigned for Deeds multiple times.
• Organizing for America sent a mail piece to 300,000 “surge voters”, or voters who voted for the first time in 2008, urging them to vote for Deeds.
• Organizing for America set up phone banks for Creigh Deeds.

The state owned media is going to tell us none of this matters and this was no rebuke of Barack Obama.

Don’t believe it. The facts speak for themselves.

(Via Libertarian Republican, who also has a mug shot) Remember: the Corzine campaign has no idea who this Jason Shih is.  The quote is “…the campaign doesn’t know who he is.”  So he has no connection at all with the campaign, right?

No connection whatsoever.

Shih also reportedly had 10 paychecks from the Middlesex County Democratic Committee in his possession. One paycheck for $1,500 was payable to Shih from the MCDC, according to reports.

“Mr. Shih stated the vehicle he was operating was rented for him by the ‘Corzine for Governor’ camp to distribute tickets and paychecks for the Middlesex County Democratic Committee,” stated Cece.

[snip]

Calls to Corzine’s campaign office and MCDC were not returned as of press time.

No. Really. Do tell.

Moe Lane

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Big Government’s open about the fact that this is an issue:

Will Corzine Allies Steal the Election in New Jersey? ACORN, Dirty Tricks and Absentee Ballot Fraud

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine is locked in the political fight of his life. With just hours left before voting, polls show a neck-and-neck race between Corzine and GOP candidate Chris Christie, with Independent candidate Chris Daggett pulling significant support. Obama and VP Biden are making last ditch pitches for the embattled governor. But evidence is building that Corzine’s campaign may see its only salvation is in rigging the election.

What can you do about it?

1. If you’re a NJ voter, then vote for Chris Christie.  As the saying goes: if it isn’t close, they can’t cheat.
2. If you have a video camera, make sure that you’re in the area of a vulnerable polling station (officially or not) and keep a lookout for shenanigans.  Go in a group, be prepared to run, and remember that the idea is to shine a light on skulduggery, not strike a blow for fair elections via street fighting.  Let the Democrats scream curses and vitriol at you.
3. If you don’t have a video camera, go volunteer .  Also: get a video camera. We’ll have to do this again next year.

On allegations that she requested that unofficial Jon Corzine ally Chris Daggett drop out of the New Jersey race, the former governor replied:

So, to the good people of New Jersey, please know that Daggett’s claims are false. I’ve never even suggested he should drop out of the race.

…wait for it, wait for it…

But, come to think of it…

Ouch. You want to keep playing, Daggett?

Moe Lane

(H/T: Hot Air Headlines.)

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

As in, how to shout out a warning without… actually shouting out a warning. In this case, he’s getting just a little worried about his fellow Democrats turning out. To put his findings in handy table form:

The voter numbers are in millions, and the percentage at the end represents the percentage of McCain/Obama voters of 2008 that PPP expects to vote in the 2009 elections. While this is not-precisely-horrible news for Corzine*, it’s not good news at all for the Democrats next year:

Maybe those numbers will improve some over the weekend- and Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine certainly aren’t the best candidates- but if that pattern continues on into next year Republicans will win back the House.

The reason why is because there are a lot more Democrats in Congressional Districts that McCain won than vice versa: and there quite a few Democrats in districts that Obama didn’t actually win by all that much. It’s going to be interesting to see how the state legislature races in NJ and VA play out this year; the results might possibly be even more of a harbinger than those of the governors races…

Moe Lane

*It would be good news, if more people actually liked Jon Corzine. Or at least didn’t despise him.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

Via Hot Air comes this Neil Cavuto piece on Don Imus’ interview with Chris Christie, where Chris addresses the two central issues of the Corzine campaign: Christie’s weight, and Corzine’s inability to even face that forthrightly.

“Hey listen: if you’re gonna do it, at least man up and say I’m fat.”

The phrase ‘wusses out’ was then used - accurately - followed by a couple of good lines about the need to keep stimulating the donut/restaurant industries.  Give it a listen: like Allahpundit, I think that this is good retail politics, and it really does hammer home just how empty the Corzine campaign has been.  I recognize that any Democratic campaign these days is going to revolve around trying to scare voters about the evvvvvil Republicans, but Corzine is being especially stereotypical about his response to what has essentially become a vanity campaign for him at this point. Which, given the way that he was fired from Goldman-Sachs and was more or less irrelevant as a Senator, is probably not too surprising. Depressing - why does the state of NJ have to pay for his therapy? - but not too surprising.

Moe Lane

PS: Chris Christie for Governor.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

And if you thought that yesterday’s semi-cryptic blog post from the former was just some prepare-the-Democrats-for-some-bad-news, and not an attempt to raise Republican hopes… well, you were right.

Chris Christie now leads Jon Corzine 42-38 in the race to be New Jersey’s next Governor, a slight increase from our poll two weeks that showed his advantage at 40-39.

In other words, the partisan Democratic polling firm is reporting that the race has shifted in Christie’s direction by three points, and now has a lead barely out of the MoE. Rasmussen likewise reports that Christie has increased his lead to 46/43, with Daggett at 7%, which is down four from last week.  But here’s what may be the important part of that report:

Christie leads by eight points among those who are certain they will show up and vote. A week ago, he was up by five among that group. Christie’s supporters are also less likely to say they might consider voting for someone else.

A week to go. Word is that Quinnipiac will have out something later this week; in the meantime, expect New Jersey to get inundated with even more campaign advertising and national scrutiny .

Moe Lane

PS: Christie for Governor.

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

…may make for an interesting headline; but I have a possibly more accurate one.

Supporters face off

An hour before the debate, crowds of Christie and Daggett supporters faced off in front of the studios, yelling taunts from opposite sides of the street and separated by cars.

“Sinking ship! Sinking ship!” chanted the Daggett fans, a reference to Christie’s slippage in the polls.

“We can’t hear you! We can’t hear you!” answered the Christie squad, which outnumbered Daggett’s group about 4-to-1.

It’s “Jon Corzine can’t draw a crowd.”

Moe Lane

PS: Christie for Governor.

PPS: A comment from Democratic Christie supporter Councilwoman Tana Raymond, on Corzine’s ties to convicted Bergen County Democratic chair Joseph Ferriero:

“For years, Jon Corzine facilitated the corrupt leadership of Joseph Ferriero at the Bergen County Democratic Organization with hundreds of thousands of dollars in financial contributions. Even as Corzine preached ethics reform in public, his actions enabled the corrupt status quo and completely contradicted his words. It’s ridiculous for the governor to attempt to play off his financial contributions to Ferriero as something other than what they actually were - Corzine looking the other way in the face of corruption for his own political benefit.”

Crossposted to Moe Lane.

I mean, I know that the Governor’s rich, thanks to Goldman-Sachs - so donating a mere $440,000 or so to former Bergen County chair Joe Ferriero (and yet another convicted Democratic politician) over the years may have been a mere lark. A minor duty. He just did what they told him to. Still, you’d have thought that Corzine might have noticed all the dirty dealing going on. Or cared.

Because the legal system did b0th:

Read More →

Jim Geraghty wonders how the state of New Jersey can so consistently produce a rosy assessment of the state’s unemployment situation, only to be forced to correct themselves later:

As noted for much of the year, the Garden State’s economy is in rough, rough shape, with unemployment high and climbing. But the state has found some surprisingly good data on private-sector job creation, and those numbers were the centerpiece of campaign ads by incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine, particularly July’s estimate of 13,000 new private-sector jobs.

And then, a month later, the state said, “Whoops, private-sector employment didn’t increase by 13,000 jobs, it increased by 5,600,” a fairly significant revision. That prompted me to look back to the previous releases, where I found that the intial number was revised downward in June, and May, and April, some months by a few hundred, one month by as much as 4,300…

Read More →