Florida has spoken, and decisively, to my surprise. Newt and Rick will have to do some serious thinking about where they go next.

But Ann Romney will be a gracious first lady, and a welcome change from Michelle Obama.

And so, Ann gets my vote..

Ignore all those polls that show  Mittens rising, and Newt dropping, and all this supposedly within a few days, and all just because the audience wasn’t allowed to applaud wildly at the NBC debate Monday night? 

You’ve got to be kidding.

Newt wins Florida comfortably, by 10 pts, and possible more if Santorum withdraws.

Can I remind all the pundits that it was not too long ago that the GOP base decisively turned their backs on a squishy Republican, Charlie Crist, who thought he’d have a cakewalk to the nomination, and instead went for a conservative, Marco Rubio, so much so that Crist flip-flopped and ran as an independent, and still lost, BIG.

Yes, Newt has some baggage, and Santorum has run a commendable campaign, and is still garnering support, but there is NO WAY in an orange grove that the same base that went wild for Rubio a little while back is suddenly going to embrace Mitt.

Ain’t gonna happen.

I was an early supporter of Rubio, shortly after he announced his candidacy. Living in Tampa, I noticed early on that Rubio bumper stickers  outnumbered Crist’s by more than 10-1.

A very good sign.

I can tell you that I can count on the fingers of ONE hand the number of bumper stickers/yard signs that I’ve seen for Mitt. And if you can’t get your people to at least display your name, well..your “support” is very thin, at best.

Best organized here in the bay area are the Paul folks. Signs everywhere, and they are out at major intersections. Gotta love their passion and committment.

But I’ve seen way more for Newt and Santorum…heck, I’ve seen more PERRY bumper stickers than I’ve seen for Mittens.

In a nutshell..Romney loses….and his campaign won’t recover.

I’m watching the GOP debate as I type this, and was suddenly struck by the fact that MSNBC, the self-proclaimed “place for politics” is absent.

Indeed during the first break, I switched over to MSNBC,a nd here’s Rachel Maddow, ostensibly the biggest star in t hat miniscule firmament..talkign about the Patriots win over the Ravens.

Whassup with that?

Did MSNBC perhaps lean “too far forward?” Or did the presumptive adults at NBC..with the new Comcast bosses laying down the law..decide to exclude the MSNBC/Politico hacks from the debate arena.. No pre debate show…will there be a post debate spin room? will Chris Matthews get a chance to salivate and go off on the GOP candidates?

Will the Ed show originate from Disney World to cover the debate?

Just wondering..but  I’m sure they are many here at RS who can opine as to what goes on, and what’s going on tonight.

MSNBC gets frozen out of the debate by the parent network, NBC. Who ever whould have thunk it?

Think about it. Just let your mind contemplate it. It would be without a doubt one of the single greates political moments in American history.

Erick  has posted today, in a thoughtful and well reasoned piece,  the reasons why Gov. Perry should withdraw from the race, and endorse Newt.  I agree. I have supported Perry from the day he announced his candidacy. But, for a myriad of reasons, which will be the subject of lengthy post-mortems, his candidacy did not catch fire.

It is now time for Perry to withdraw from the race, especially so after his excellent performance at Monday night’s debate.  It makes one think..”if only..”

But I would disagree with Erick in one respect. He suggests that it is imperative that Perry withdraw before tomorrow night’s debate.

Wrong!!!

Instead, Perry should do something that is as big, brash, and bold as the Governor’s persona, and the great state of Texas that he so ably leads…announce AT THE START OF THE DEBATE that he is dropping out, and endorsing Newt.

We’ve just seen the  carefully choreographed departure of Huntsman, and his pretentious lecture to the other candidates about the need to be “nice,” and the immediate endorsement of Romney, only a few days after Huntsman had been savaging him in NH.

Well, Gov. Perry..show them how politics is played in Texas. Time to go “all in”

Tomorrow night, after the candidates appear on the stage, and just as Blitzer starts to explain the rules, Governor Perry should interrupt, announce that he has something very important to say before the debate starts, thank his supporters, and say that he has decided tgo withdraw from the race, and endorse Newt for the nomination.

I’m condensing it here, you all can write the words in your own minds.

But again, THINK ABOUT IT.

The audience for the debate tomorrow will be huge, likely the biggest ever. Perry finishes his comments, shakes hands with each of the others on stage, Newt last..gives him a Texas bearhug, waves, and walks off the stage to sit down front in the audience next to his wife.

Amazing moment. One for the ages.

It will propel Newt to a BIG win in SC, and boost his standing in the national polls. More importantly, much more so, the pressure on Santorum to follow Perry’s example will be enormous. And nobody will focus on anything that Mitt or Paul have to say that night.

And even if Santorum doesn’t  withdraw, his numbers will erode overnight.  He’ll likely have to drop out before Florida.

And Newt v. Perry.. ( Paul will stay in and get his 10%) well..Mitt’s a goner.

Gov. Perry, your entry into the race was dramatic, last minute, and all but overshadowed the Iowa straw poll.  You can really “go out with a bang” and shape the race, and help Newt to win the nomination.

And it will be absolutely amazing..one for the ages.

Mitt Romney is very likely to become the GOP nominee, pirmarily because conservatives, who are the overwhelming majority of the party, are unable to coalesce around either Gingrich, Santorum, or Perry.

Mitt Romney will also lose to Obama.

This will be a bitter pill to swallow. There is no way to sugarcoat that fact. We should have been able to make Obama a “one term wonder”

But because it is in the nature of conservatives to be eternally optimistic ( I speak as someone whose first involvement in a political campaign was handing out Goldwater literature at NYC subway stations) we can anticipate at least one benefit, if not more, from Romney’s loss.

NO MORE SQUISHES.

 After McCain, after Romney, the so called GOP “establishment” will have had its day.  They can’t win. Everything they have told us about how to win a national election will have proven to have failed, to be false.

And so, for years to come, we will not be bothered with having to deal with any more moderates, so called “nuanced” conservatives…middle of the roaders..their time will have passed.

The GOP will hold the House, and indeed, after the redistricting is complete in al states, and we see further Democrat retirements, I think the GOP will actually gain a few seats. The so-called “moderate blue-dawg House Democrat will finally be declared an extinct species.

The GOP will take control of the Senate, likely with a 55+ seat majority, and be well positioned to achieve a filibuster-proof majority in 2014. ( Don’t take my word for it..just look at the list of Dems up in 2014)

More importantly, the GOP caucuses in both the House and Senate will be much more conservative, and they will exert considerable pressure on their leadership NOT to aquiesce to any of Obama’s radical agenda.

Obama will have four more years to do considerable damage to the nation.  There is no way to sugarcoat that. The new Congress will have to find its way on Day 1 in order to stop Obamacare. That will be the defining battle of the next Congress.

But Mitt’s “greatest” contribution to the GOP,and to the country, in his defeat, will be that finally the party establishment is sent packing.

The day after the 2012 election, Obama is a lame duck, and speculation already focuses on 2016. And the Democrat race will be between Biden and Hillary. There is no other Democrat on the horizon that even remotely has a chance. And Biden and Hillary are old, tired, has-beens.

Contrast that with the GOP. We are blessed with a stable of savvy, young, highly intelligent, photogenic conservatives, who are just coming into national prominence, and they will wage a spirited campaign for the nomination.

Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Nikki Haley. Ron Johnson, Jim DeMint…just to name a few.

I will of course vote for Romney. And hope that he somehow manages to win. But  I won’t have a MITT bumper sticker on my car. All my efforts, my enthusiam, and my $$ will be devoted to a few key House and Senate races that I deem vital.

Here in Florida, we will send a second Sen Nelson into retirement, and it is imperative that we re-elect Allen West to the House. In Ohio, Josh Mandel is well positioned to defeat  the thoroughly detestable Sherrod Brown.

And of course, even before we get to November, Scott Walker will need the support, and the $$$ from conservatives all across this nation.

Those are my key races this year. Others will have their own. They are a great many worthwhile conservatives running who merit our support.

Mitt Romney just doesn’t happen to be one of them.

Unlike Shakespeare’s Thane of Cawdor, who at his death, “confessed his treasons,” and “set forth a deep repentence,”  Mitt has failed to do either. He continues to flip-flop, to equivocate, and think that just by telling the people now what he thinks they want to hear, that he can win.

There is only one possible reason for any conservative to enthusiastically support Romney; his win would all but ensure that the Mormon Tabernacle Choir would appear at the White House during Christmas.

So Romney’s parting “gift” will in the very manner of his leaving. No more will we be forced to settle for the lesser nominee. And that will be his political epitaph.

So Romney’s

This will be a bitter pill to swallow. W had every expectation

Some may recall National Review‘s “Prophet of the Year” contest. I thought it would interesting, and fun, to see what Red Staters think about what’s going to happen in 2012.

There are 25 questions…all TRUE or FALSE. We’ll store the responses, tote them up at the end of the year, and announce the results. Maybe we can get Erick to contribute a prize for the winner.

Obviously, the contest closes before kick-off time next  Monday night.

For ease in tabulating, kindly submit your answers in the following manner:

1 T, 2F, 3F, ……

**********************************************************

1. Alabama beats LSU for the BCS championship

2. Other than the current 6 GOP nominees, at least one more will announce a run for the nomnation

3. Eric Holder will still be Atty General at year’s end.

4. Michelle Obama is pregnant

5. During 2012, there will be at least one terrorist attack on US soil that results in civilian fatalities.

6. Miami Heat wins the NBA championship

7. At any time  during 2012, the price of a regular gallon of gasoline exceeds $4.00/gallon anywheres in the  US. ( Alaska and Hawaii excluded)

8. At least one of the following will die during 2012: Frank Lautenberg, Prince Phillip, Nancy Reagan, Jerry Sandusky

9. Hillary Clinton will replace Joe Biden on the Dem ticket

10. Gov. Scott WSalker will be recalled

11.  The Yankees will win the World Series.

12. The GOP nominee will not be decided until the convention in Tampa.

13. There will eb a terrorist attack in London during the 2012 Olympics that results in at least one civilian fatality

14. Meryl Streep wins the Oscar for her portrayal of Lady Thatcher.

15. At any time during 2012, the DJIA closes below 10,000.

16. New England Patriots win the Super Bowl

17. Kate Middleton has a girl ( careful: semi-tricky question)

18.  Either Greece or Portugal formally default during 2012.

19. The missing $1.2 billion from Corizine’s MF Global is accounted for..IOW..we find out where it all went..who got it

20. Israel launches an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.

21. Marco Rubio is the GOP VP nominee,

22. Obama is re-elected.

23. Harry Reid is the minority leader in the next Congress.

24. Nancy Pelosi does not seek re-election as Minority leader, and retires

25. Over 2000 Iraqis will die in terrorist attacks during 2012.

TIE BREAKER: The DJIA will close at __?___ on 12/31/2012.

The number closest, either over or under, will win.

Good luck to all..

2.

Republicans agree that Obama’s so-called recess apts yesterday are illegal. So, who has standing to file the lawsuit? I’ve read that the US Chamber of Commerce may do so.  But shouldn’t the GOP leadership in Congress..especially the Senate, file the suit to challenge it, and also demand that the Supreme Court take it on an expidited basis?

“Leave it to Beaver” was an iconic TV series that ran from 1957-63.  It portrayed a kinder, simpler image of Americana, suburbia..white picket fences, a stay at home mom, and a close knit family. It reflected the values that made this country great. The greatest generation, that had won World War II, had served again in Korea, had settled down, put down roots, started families, and would soon be once again challenged to win the Cold War.

In addition to the Cleavers, LITB had a recurring cast of characters that served as counterfoils to Wally and the Beaver. “Whitey” was Beaver’s cool, hip, wise-guy pal. “Lumpy” was Wally’s clumsy, semi-oafish best friend, but blessed with a heart of gold.

Yet if there is one character from the show that stands out, in manuy ways even moreso than the four main characters, it is Eddie Haskell.

Eddie managed to be everything, and nothing at the same time. He said whatever was needed to say at any given time, changing his mind, going back on his word, at the drop of a hat, if he felt that somehow he’d benefit from it. His only loyalty was to himself.

He defined the meaning of “two-faced.” He was oily, smarmy, and yet, managed to be charming, and fool most of the people most of the time.

Watching the increased coverage from Iowa this last week, especially several of the candidate’s speeches, I was struck by how much Mitt reminded me of Eddie Haskell.

It’s not just the obvious flip-flops, the u-turns on a multitude of positions. It’s Mitt’s style on the stump…the artifical attempts at laughter, the near frenetic speech, the attempts to appear to be “one of the guys” by wearing blue jeans.

Let’s face it. Mitt look ridiculous in blue jeans. He looks robotic walking in them, like the feel of the material makes his skin itch.He can’t “cowboy up.” Casual for Mitt is LL Bean khakis and topsiders. If he really wants to try to dress down, maybe, maybe, a pair of Dockers.

Eddie Haskell perfected the wide-eyed stare of pretended innocence, while lying through his teeth, about anything and everything, to whomever he was speaking. And that pretty much sums up Mitt.

First he wasn’t going to contest Iowa, then, as the field fragmented, and the others rose and fell in the polls, he realizes that he might just be able to steal one, that his ceiling of low 20′s % support might just stand up.

So now he’s in Iowa this last week, telling the good people that he’s been there all along..when he hasn’t. Just like he tells them that he’s been a job creator, when he hasn’t…he was a financial engineer.

Or pro-life, when he really wasn’t. Or against Obamacare, when he in fact invented it. Yada, yada, yada..

There were several “good guys” on LITB. Eddie Haskell wasn’t one of them. There are several “good guys” in this year’s GOP primary field.

Mitt’s NOT one of them.

The polls are all over the place. Both in Iowa, and nationally, but we can state some obvious facts.

Mitt still can’t crack that low 20′s% ceiling.

Ron Paul will NOT be the nominee, but he will be in this until the convention. His supporters are fanatical, and his campaign is well financed. I suspect that Iowa will be his high water mark, as more and more, people realize the insanity of his foreign policy pronouncements.

Newt seems to be coming back to earth, and rapidly. It could be that he has been examined by the base, and found lacking.

So we’re left with the the three candidates who seem to speak to, and for the evangelical core of the GOP, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum. That’s two too many. ( And I suspect that the 10-15% of voters who remain undecided are Cain supporters still in mourning. They are alos evangelicals for the most part.) And realistically, Perry is the only one who has the financial backing to go the distance.

But these three are cannibalizing each other now, and all they are doing is to likely give Mitt the nomination.

Indeed, we’ve already had several calls for one or more of them to drop out.  That’s not likely to happen, it’s far more likely that all three will continue until the $$$ dries up. But that can last through the South Carolina primary. And that may be too late.

However, there is ONE individual in the GOP who has the stature, the presence, and the voice to immediately change the dynamics of this campaign in a second. And that person is Sarah Palin.

It is long past time for her to announce her preference. I assume it would be Perry.  But if she now picks one of the three, publicly comes out for that person, starts to fund raise and campaign with that person..that changes everything.

The other two will soon be forced to drop out for lack of funds, and because supporters are defecting. And soon it will be either a two person contest ( Mitt v. Palin’s choice) or possibly a three person race ( if Newt can stabilize his campaign)

Regardless, it will stop Mitt from getting the nomination by default.

Palin owes it to the country, ( and also yes, to the GOP), to endorse now, and end the intramural conflict among evangelicals.

There is no reason for her to delay, unless, of course, she secretly harbors hope for a brokered convention.

Gov. Palin…time to step up.

Like many here, I was amazed at the blatant narcissism of Obama, when he recently described himself as perhaps the “fourth most successful administration ever ( in recent history..though one could hardly describe Lincoln as “recent”.)

And yes, it’s too easy to just ignore it as yet another insipid comment, but I was struck by the fact that while he included FDR and LBJ in his pantheon of successes, he omitted the one president who, for the majority of Democrats who are baby boomers, has until recently been considered the ideal. I speak of course of JFK and Camelot.

And what of course stands out is that Obama’s and JFK’s administrations are now just about exactly the same length. So a comparison begs itself.  And perhaps Obama’s fortunate that Chris Matthews is on vacation this week, given that his book on JFK has just been published. Chrissie would not be pleased.

For about 30 seconds I considered penning a serious piece comparing  Obama and JFK. ( I must admit, Moe Lane’s thoughtful pieces can inspire one to do research.)

But then I decided..NAH!!!!..knocking Obama ain’t worth the effort, and besides, I have Christmas presents to wrap. so I thought instead we’d just take a quick trip down memory lane, and see what pops up.

JFK                                                                    BHO

New Frontier                                                Hope and Change

Sent the USA to the moon                      Ended NASA’s exploration, but

                                                                           NASA is now “muslim friendly”

Took Jackie to Paris                                  Michelle planed a WH garden

“Ich bin ein Berliner”                                 Went to Cairo, and look at the

                                                                            mess in the Middle East

Forced Kruschev to back down            Has thrown away the American

  and remove the missiles                         victory in Iraq.

Pushed through a huge tax cut             Has raised taxes since day one

Economy boomed                                      Economy is tanking

Recognized the threat of                          Ignores the threat of radical

   communism                                                     Islam

I could go on, and on, and on..you get the idea..and feel free to add your own examples. But the fact the JFK is now all but  ignored by the Democrats, the same party that for three decades after his death worshipped him, shows the extent to which the current day Democrat party has all but abandoned what were once its core values, and instead morphed into a relentless advocacy of a socialist, one world vision of America.

All I can say, Barack, is that I knew of JFK, and believe me, you ain’t no JFK, and oh yeah, BTW..Michelle sure ain’t no Jackie.