It has been awhile since my last Senate Analysis: way back in mid-February to be precise. The most shocking thing in the past month and a half is that there really hasn’t been any new development in the Senate races. For several months previously, Republicans had a steady stream of good news and even began to think about the possibility of reclaiming the Majority.

Some minor things have happened, though. And some non-changes have turned out to be more good news for Republicans.

Just a reminder: please remember that my Senate 2010 Analyses are not mt predictions; they are simply my take on where the races are right now.

Democratic Seats:

#1: North Dakota – Byron Dorgan (Retiring)

North Dakota is still (and looks to remain) Republicans’ #1 pick-up opportunity as Governor John Hoeven crushes Democratic challenger State Senator Tracy Potter by a whopping 68-25 in the latest mid-March Rasmussen poll.

We can put a fork in this one. North Dakota is turning bright red in November.

#2: Delaware – Ted Kauffman (Appointed – Retiring)

Republican Representative Michael Castle is way ahead in this race, leading Democrat Chris Coons by over 18 points in late February polls by Research 2000 and Rasmussen. This actually represents a slight shift to Coons, but Castle is so far ahead I seriously doubt Coons has a chance.

Delaware is still an almost guaranteed pick-up. The only reason it isn’t rated as our #1 pick-up is because North Dakota is even more comfortable.

#3: Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln

Senator Lincoln is having a hard time everywhere she looks. She looked so weak against so many unknown Republicans that fellow Democrat Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter decided to challenge her for the Party’s nomination. A late-March Research 2000 poll shows Lincoln leading Halter 44-31, but a mid-April Talk Business poll shows a much closer race at 38-31

Meanwhile, the Republican primary is still crowded with around 8 candidates running. It would have been nice if some of them had dropped out to challenge Democrats further down the ticket. Anyway, Representative John Boozman leads that pack with 46% in the mid-April Talk Business poll. His nearest rival, State Senator Gilbert Baker, attracts a measly 14%.

A late-March Rasmussen poll shows Boozman leading Lincoln 51-36, echoing a mid-March Research 2000 poll showing him leading 49-42. Meanwhile, Boozman leads Halter 48-34 and 48-40 in the same two polls.

Similar polling shows all of the Republican candidates leading both of the Democratic candidates, albeit by slimmer margins.

The only way for Republicans to lose this race would be for them to nominate some minor candidate. Even then, I’d say the State of Clinton is turning red in November….

#4: Colorado – Michael Bennet (Appointed)

No new primary polling, but former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton is still presumed to lead Ken Buck for the Republican nomination while Senator Bennet is still favored to fend off former Democratic Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.

In an early-April Rasmussen poll, Norton leads Bennet 46-41 and Romanoff 49-38. The same poll showed Buck leading Bennet 44-40 and Romanoff 45-37.

Colorado is definitely purpler than most states, but both Republicans appear to stand excellent chances against both Democrats. I’m confident that, in the end, Colorado will turn a redder shade of purple in November.

#5: Nevada – Harry Reid

Sue Lowden has jumped way ahead of Danny Tarkanian in the race for the Republican nomination to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. She now leads Tarkanian 45-27 in a mid-April Mason Dixon/LVJR poll. This confirms a February poll showing a break following months of a virtual tie.

The Mason Dixon poll has more good news for Republicans: Lowden leads Reid 46-38… And that’s with Tea Party candidate Jon Ashjian pulling in 5% of the vote!

In the same poll, Tarkanian and Reid are tied at 39 while Ashjian gets 11%.

I was really concerned when the Tea Party announced they would be running a candidate for Reid’s seat, but it seems that Reid is so far gone that Republicans are still favored to win it even with Ashjian in. And I look for Ashjian’s support to dissipate over time as voters realize he isn’t a realistic candidate and exists only to give Reid a chance to keep the seat.

Nevertheless, the Tea Party does make me rank Nevada as a less likely pick-up opportunity than Colorado, especially if Tarkanian pulls out the Republican primary. However, I ultimately feel confident Republicans will eventually dominate.

#6: Indiana – Evan Bayh (Retiring)

We still have no idea who the front runner in the Republican primary is, but it seems likely that it will be former Senator Dan Coats, former Representative John Hosteller, or State Senator Marlin Stutzman.

Meanwhile, Democrats have united behind Representative Brad Ellsworth to try to defend Senator Evan Bayh’s seat.

Whoever the eventual nomination is, Republicans look poised to turn Indiana a darker shade of red in November. In a mid-March Rasmussen poll, Ellsworth trails Coats 34-49, Hosteller 32-50, and Stutzman 34-41.

Indiana has jumped up two places in likelihood of turning red, passing Pennsylvania and Illinois, since my last update.

#7: Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (Democrat-Republican-Democrat)

Senator Specter’s lead for the Democratic nomination has evaporated in the last few months. The latest mid-April Rasmussen poll has him leading Representative Joe Sestak 44-42, a swing of -9 points for the turn-coat. Nevertheless, this could be an outlier since an early-April Quinnipiac poll showed Specter leading 53-32.

Meanwhile, both polls show Republican former Representative Pat Toomey leading Specter 50-40 and 46-41. He leads Sestak by 47-37 and 42-34.

This race is far from over, and Pennsylvania is actually a fairly comfortably blue state, so we shouldn’t count the Democrats out until the election is over. Toomey can’t relax until he’s sworn in, but Republicans still stand a good chance of taking back this seat (again) in November.

#8: Illinois – Roland Burris (Appointed – Retiring)

In an early-April Rasmussen poll, Republican Representative Mark Kirk leads Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 41-37. This is in line with another early-April PPP poll showing Kirk leading Giannoulias 37-33.

It’s clear that Republicans have the upper hand, at least as far as legitimate voters are concerned. But Illinois is a solidly blue state known for voter fraud and corruption. Kirk will need to pull his lead up and pass the 50% mark before I consider this a comfortable win. For now, Republicans stand an even chance of taking President Obama’s old seat.

#9: California – Barbara Boxer

The Republican primary continues to be a three-way fight among former Representative Tom Campbell, CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina, and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore. The latest Los Angeles Times poll from late-March shows Campbell leading Fiorina and DeVore 29-25-9 respectively. Meanwhile, a mid-March PPIC found Fiorina leading Campbell and DeVore 24-23-8.

Realistically, this has become a two pony show with Fiornia and Campbell vying for the chance to take on Sen. Boxer.

In the latest Rasmussen poll, Boxer leads Campbell 43-41, Fiornia 42-38, and DeVore 42-30. Campbell had had a mid-March polling bump and lead Babs for awhile, but at the moment, the Senator is sweating but safe.

California is a solidly blue state, and this seat could continue to develop. If it does, it means that election night has been a route for Democrats and Republicans have already taken control of the House and, possibly, the Senate as well.

#10: Washington – Patty Murray

Washington could be in play if former State Senator Dino Rossi decides to get in the race. He trails Senator Murray by only 2 points in an early-April Rasmussen report. Unfortunately, he hasn’t made any moves, and it seems that he almost certainly won’t enter the race.

If Rossi enters, this seat becomes competitive. If not, Sen. Murray easily cruises to reelection.

#11: New York – Kirsten Gillibrand (Appointed)

Oh, what could have been…

Former Republican Governor George Pataki announced he wouldn’t challenge Senator Gillibrand, thus effectively ending Republicans’ chances of taking this seat and, with it, severely diminishing the chances of being able to reclaim the Senate in November. Gillibrand could still be vulnerable, but at this point she leads a generic Republican 40-39 in an early-April Rasmussen poll. The problem? There just doesn’t seem to be any realistic “generic Republicans” to challenge her…

#12: Wisconsin – Russ Feingold

Former Governor Tommy Thompson announced he wouldn’t challenge Senator Feingold, ending Republicans’ chances of reddening Wisconsin’s purplish-blue color.

Other:

Sens. Daniel Inouye (HI), Barbara Mikulski (MD), Chuck Schumer (NY), Ron Wyden (OR), and Pat Leahy (VT) all seem safe for the moment, and Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal seems certain to hold Sen. Chris Dodd’s seat (CT). But Sen. Scott Brown proved that no race is a foregone conclusion these days. One or two more of these seats might become competitive in the future.

Republican Seats:

#1 Ohio – George Voinovich (Retiring)

Ohio is proving to be the closest Republican-held seat to watch. For the Democratic nomination, it seems that Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher has etched out a fairly sturdy lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, though that could change.

Meanwhile, an early-April Research 2000 poll shows Brunner leading Republican Representative Rob Portman 41-40 and Fisher leading Portman 43-39. Previous polls have showed Portman roughly tied with both Democratic candidates since last September.

Ohio is going to be a squeaker. It’s the Democrats’ #1 pick-up opportunity, and it could go their way even if they lose 6-8 of their own seats. Nevertheless, with the current national mood, I think Ohio might just stay red this year…

#2: Missouri – Kit Bond (Retiring)

The good news: All polls since mid-January have shown Republican Representative Roy Blunt leading Democrat Secretary of State Robin Carnahan.

The bad news: He can’t seem to get his lead over 5 points.

An early-April Rasmussen poll shows Blunt leading Carnahan 48-42, but he needs to get that up over 50%. Nevertheless, Missouri is a reddish-purple State, being the only swing state to go for John McCain in 2008. I feel confident that it’ll come home for Republicans in the end.

#3: New Hampshire – Judd Gregg (Retiring)

Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte faces a primary against perennial candidate Ovide Lamontange. Originally his candidacy was just a boring sequel to his other failed electoral attempts, but he was gaining on Ayotte in a February Research 2000 poll and may stand a good chance of actually winning the Republican nomination.

Meanwhile, Democrats have united behind Representative Paul Hodes.

An early-April Rasmussen poll found Hodes trailing Ayotte 35-50 and Lamontagne 39-44. He leads two other minor candidates.

If Republicans nominate Ayotte, this seat definitely stays red. If they nominate Lamontagne, it probably stays red, and if they nominate someone else, it probably goes blue.

#4: Florida – George LeMieux (Retiring)

Former Speaker of the State House Marco Rubio continues to dominate Governor Charlie Crist for the Republican nomination, leading 56-33 in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, a poll that mirrors every other poll since February.

Unfortunately for Republicans, Crist is now talking about running as an Independent.

Should Crist decide to stay on as governor and not run as an Independent, Rubio leads Democrat former Representative Kendrick Meek 42-38. If Crist performs a miracle and wins the primary, he leads Meek 48-34. Should he decide to run as an Independent, Crist leads both Rubio and Meek 32-30-24.

The biggest loss for Republicans here is not, in my view, the 2010 Senate seat since Crist would most likely caucus with Republicans should he win as an Independent. The biggest loss is the potential challenge to Senator Bill Nelson that Governor Crist could have mounted in 2012. Unfortunately, it looks like Crist is wasting most of his intra-party support on a Senate seat that Republicans should keep regardless of who runs.

The ideal conclusion to this messy battle would be for Rubio and the Republican establishment to promise to support Crist in 2012 in exchange for him gracefully withdrawing before the primary. That just isn’t going to happen though and, unless Jeb Bush decides to challenge him, Sen. Nelson will probably win reelection in 2012.

#5: Arizona – John McCain

A mid-April Rasmussen poll had some shocking news: former Representative J.D. Hayworth now trails Senator McCain by only 5 points (42-47) for the Republican nomination.

Something is going on in Arizona. I’m not sure that Hayworth has any realistic chance of beating McCain, but should he steal the nomination, you can bet that McCain won’t take it lying down. Unless state law forbids it, we can be sure he’ll immediately announce an Independent bid for the general election.

Both Republicans safely lead all Democratic candidates, but there haven’t been any polls on how a three-way race would work out…

#6: North Carolina – Richard Burr

A mid-March PPP poll shows Secretary of State Elaine Marshall continuing to lead former State Senator Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 20-16-11 for the Democratic primary. It’s true that she is polling lower than ever before, but she’s still the favorite to challenge Senator Burr in November.

Meanwhile, the same poll shows Burr leading Marshall 51-35, Cunningham 51-32, and Lewis 44-31.

Burr has finally gotten his feet under him. I no longer consider this seat realistically competitive unless Lewis somehow pulls an upset victory for the Democratic nomination. Even then, it won’t be seriously competitive.

#7: Kentucky – Jim Bunning (Retiring)

Rand Paul continues to lead Secretary of State Trey Grayson for the Republican nomination in all polls since last November. In the latest, a mid-April Survey USA poll, Paul leads 45-30.

The same poll shows Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo leading Attorney General Jack Conway 35-32 for the Democratic nomination. This has been tight for awhile, so we’ll probably just have to wait until after the primary to know who the candidate will be.

Regardless, Grayson leads Conway 52-32 and Mongiardo 53-33 in a late-March Rasmussen poll, and Paul also leads Conway 50-36 and Mongiardo 52-37 in the same poll.

The only thing that could make this slightly messy for Republicans is if Grayson runs as an Independent (promising to caucus with the Republicans) after losing the primary. I’m not familiar with Kentucky state law, so this may or may not be a possibility. But even if it is a possibility, it seems unlikely since Grayson would still have a nice job as Secretary of State and can always try again in a few years.

#8: Kansas – Sam Brownback (Retiring)

A late-March Survey USA poll continues to find Representative Jerry Moran topping Representative Todd Tiahart for the Republican nomination 42-32, building on previous leads. Both are solid conservatives, and either will hold the seat for the Republicans.

#9: Utah – Robert Bennett

Utah is a complicated State since the primary will actually be decided at a State Convention in May, with a primary in June should no one have a decent lead. An early-April Rasmussen poll showed Senator Bennet leading Mike Lee, Tim Bridgewater, former Representative Merrill Cook, and Cherilyn Eagar 37-14-14-6-4.

Because of the rules of the Convention, a candidate must receive 60% to avoid a primary. Let’s just hope conservative unite behind anybody-but-Bennet and get him knocked out to avoid a primary.

Regardless of who wins the Republican nod in the end, this seat stays solidly red.

Other:

Senators Richard Shelby (AL), Lisa Murkowski (AK), Johnny Isakson (GA), Chuck Grassley (IA), Mike Crappo (ID), David Vitter (LA), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), and John Thune (SD) are still considered safe. In the current political environment, I’d be surprised if we see any more Republican additions to the above vulnerable seats.

Synopsis:

Republicans’ hopes sure have improved in the last 18 months, but it seems like we may have reached a plateau in good fortune, with no new Democratic seats on the horizon and several seats that could have been winnable failing to materialize (namely, New York and Wisconsin with the announcements of Pataki and Thompson).

On one hand, I think it’s probably good, in the long run, for Republicans to not get the Senate back quite yet. This will maximize gains in 2012 when much, much more is at stake. However, at the same time, maximizing gains now would also mean we don’t have to win as much in 2012… but it could also risk giving Obama another 4 years… But having control of the Senate could help keep him in check for the next 2 years… but having him in check may make him more electable in 2012 (as it did Clinton in 1996). It’s a real catch-22 for Republicans.

As of now, Republicans look poised to keep all of their own “endangered” seats. Of the nine Republican-held seats I analyzed, KS and UT have never been in danger of a Democratic take-over; I’ve included them because we aren’t yet sure which Republican will fill their seats come January 2011. NC and KY are also now all but certain to go Republican, and AZ will only go Democratic if Republicans nominate Hayworth and McCain mounts an Independent bid. FL should also go Republican too, unless Crist also decides to mount an Independent bid (even then he would probably caucus with Republicans).

MO, OH, and NH are really our only competitive seats, despite what certain pundits may want to think. The problem for Democrats is that these are all slightly reddish-purple States. In other words, Republicans should do better in these States than in many of the blue States in which they are now polling much better than Democrats (DE, PA, IL). I just don’t see any scenario in which Democrats can take all three of these seats, though one (OH) and possibly two (NH) might slip through the cracks if Republicans, specifically conservatives, insist on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Meanwhile, Republicans are sure to take ND, DE, and AR. CO, NV, and IN are all heavily favored for Republicans, and we also stand a better-than-average shot at PA. IL also looks doable, but Kirk needs to solidify Republican support and really get moving if he wants to beat voter-fraud. That makes 8 seats that Republicans have an excellent shot of taking away from Democrats.

CA could continue to develop, but at this point I don’t see it as a realistic possibility. But then, I didn’t see MA as a realistic possibility either. Should it develop, that gives us +9, giving us a 50-50 split in the Senate with VP Biden casting the deciding vote.

WA could also develop if Rossi decides to jump in. At this point, I see WA as more likely than CA.

Right now, Republicans have a good chance of having a 49 seat Minority and a slim chance of bumping that up to a 50-seat Minority, the best of both worlds in my book. It allows Republicans to halt almost all Democratic legislation, it allows enough votes for conservatives to filibuster Obama’s judicial nominees (I’m not personally a fan of the maneuver, but since that’s the way the Democrats played, we’ve got to as well!), and it even gives Republicans enough power to possibly get some of their own stuff through by picking off a few vulnerable Democratic Senators. As gravy, it keeps the Senate in Democratic control so that they retain responsibility for the continuing economic woes that are sure to continue throughout Obama’s reign. It also allows the arrogant President to continue acting as though he has a 60+ majority in the Senate, thus continuing his reelection chances’ souring process that began last summer.

From a Democratic standpoint, the best-case scenario for Obama’s reelection is for Republicans to take the Senate 51-49 and the House by slim majorities. This allows Obama to share the blame with Republicans while still refusing to moderate his agenda, thus making 2012 a neutral or pro-Democrat year instead of the massively pro-Republican year it should be.

The worst case scenario for Obama, in my view, would probably be if Republicans can take a wide majority in both the House and the Senate and continually present conservative, common sense solutions and defeat leftist judge nominations on a straight up-or-down vote. Unfortunately, that simply isn’t an option in the Senate since there just aren’t enough eats in play for Republicans to win back 19 seats this year and have a super-majority.

So the question is, should Republicans aim for 51 seats? My personal opinion is no. I’d rather forego a win in IL, CA, or WA than be stuck at 51 seats, especially since those seats would be ridiculously hard to defend in 2016 anyway.

Of course, the chance remains that 3 November 2010 could see any number of Democrats applying to switch parties, especially if Republicans are on the verge of taking control or have taken control: Ben Nelson (NE), Bill Nelson (FL), Jon Tester (MT), Jim Webb (VA), Joseph Lieberman (CT), and Robert Casey (PA), all of whom are up for reelection in 2012, could decide they have better chances of reelection in 2012 with an “R” after their name. Hopefully, Republicans would be smart about this and only consider letting Webb in…

Realistically, Republicans could have anywhere from 48-53 seats come January 2011.

Looking forward, 2012 continues to look good for Republicans. Sens. Tester (D-MT), Webb (D-VA), McCaskill (D-MO), Brown (D-OH), Nelson (D-NE), Byrd (D-WV), Kohl (D-WI), Feinstein (D-CA), Akaka (D-HI), and Liberman (I-CT) are all in weak positions to win reelection with Republicans only really playing defensive in MA (Brown).

If Republicans play our cards just right, we could win 2012 with super-majorities in both chambers of congress and the White House, just in time to repeal Obama-Care before it goes into effect in 2014, give Justices Thomas/Scalia a chance to retire without risking their seat going left (as well as the possibility of 1 or 2 moderate-liberal seats coming open), and deal with whatever mess Obama has gotten us into in the Middle-East.

I’m breathing easier today.