Comments on: Senate Analysis (late-November): Path to Republican Majority

By: mbauer

mbauer — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 21:19:45 +0000

I have great confidence that we will make huge gains in the house, where the vote really relates to public mood. But in the Senate we have to look at personalities and individual races, as you’ve done here.

I think each party has 4 top tier pick up opportunities:

For the Republicans they are DE, NV, CT and CO
For the Democrats they are MO, OH, NH, and KY

I think, if the election were today, the Republicans would end up between +1 and +3 on these elections.

I’d also claim their are 5 second tier pick up opportunities:

For the Republicans they are AR, Il, and PA
For the Democrats they are NC and LA.

Take it for what it is, but I have a very hard time with any prediction of Republicans currently in a position to end up better than +5 without some major fluctuations.

I’d be very happy with 45 in 2010, I think the caucus is united enough to stop the major radical initiatives Obama is putting forward if we can hold them off that long. What’s the term we heard for so long? Oh yeah, lame duck.

By: NightTwister

NightTwister — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 10:52:36 +0000

It’s about what many of the fiscal conservatives here might do. I’m really worried they may stay home again this time. Norton helped push the largest tax increase in the history of Colorado (Ref. C), This initiative has given the Democrats here the courage to go directly after our Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR). She’s a solid social conservative, but that’s not the biggest issue in CO right now.

Ken Buck (DA from Weld County) is a much better candidate, but hasn’t raised the kind of money he’d hoped, partially due to so many being excited about Frazier, and now due to the coronation of Jane Norton with all of her outside money coming in. She’s McCain’s hand-picked candidate, and McCain is not very popular here (Romney won the primary in a walk).

Add to that she’s one of the most unexciting speakers around….we’ve even dubbed the possible run between Bennet and Norton the “Bennetol v. Nortonol” insomnia relief campaign.

Big money may well be flowing into the State, but in the end it’s Coloradans that have to pull the lever to elect. If people here feel as though they’re being dictated to from Washington, they may very well stay home again. I don’t agree with it, but I’m just telling it like it is.

By: jeffreywturner

jeffreywturner — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:13:26 +0000

I think an optimum outcome is actually a net gain of 9 for the GOP next year, to allow them block basically anything, but not have to take responsibility for it heading in to 2012. I know they technically would still be the minority if they gained 10 seats, but having only 49 would be better probably, as it makes it clear that the Dems are in control and still can’t get anything done.

It would also allow the GOP to win votes in committees containing Lieberman or Nelson.

By: Gandalf

Gandalf — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:43:26 +0000

I’m also a bit dissapointed that Frazier got out and Norton has been seemingly coronated. However, this blog was intended to be just an analysis of the Republican party’s chances in the senate, I’m not expressing my own personal opinion about which candidates would be best.

But I’ll do so here: I am of the opinion that any R in the Senate (not necessarily in the House) right now (including ones like Snowe and Collins) are better than a D. I’m all for the most conservative candidate possible, but after the Republican primary is over, that’s always going to be the Republican candidate in these times.

According to her site, Norton is pro-life, anti-amnesty, anti-Obamacare, anti-Cap n’ Trade, and, it appears, more fiscally conservative than any Democrat would ever be. I can’t vouch for this stuff since I’m not from Colorado, but surely this is better than Bennett or Romonoff.

Don’t get me wrong, I was salivating at the idea of Sen. Frazier. But I’ll be happy to pick up the seat with Norton.

By: NightTwister

NightTwister — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:25:07 +0000

Unfortunately, Norton is probably a squish at best. I'm not sure I'd categorize it as a pickup for Rs even if she wins. That's not for certain either. The grassroots people here are pretty miffed about all the involvement in our State from outside, and it only seems to be getting worse. All the old gamesmanship that had everyone staying home the last two cycles is happening again. This political cartoon pretty much says it all.

By: mbecker908

mbecker908 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:10:01 +0000

JD Hayworth getting blown out by McCain by up to 20 points is as close to a certainty as you’re going to find. Nancy Pelosi is in more danger of defeat.

By: Gandalf

Gandalf — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:57:12 +0000

I think the big difference here is the dissatisfaction with individual congressmen, not just congress as a whole. I think the system has completely changed since 1994, and I think incumbency will provide as much protection to Democrats next year as it did to Republicans in 2006 and 2008, which is to say minimal at most. See Sens. Santorum, DeWine, Chafee, Talent, Burns, Allen, Stevens, Coleman, Sununu, Dole, and Smith for incumbents who lost in the last two cycles. For comparison, the last two cycles saw only three incumbents lose their seats (Daschle, Carnahan, and Hutchinson).

I agree that open seats are our best bet, but I think we have reasonable chances of picking off at least some Democrat incumbents in NV, CT, CO, AR, PA, ND, and NY.

And on PA: we actually have a better chance of taking it if the incumbent Specter wins the Democrat primary.

Open seats in AR, IN, VT, WI, or NY (Schumer) would be a God-send. But I don’t see any of these incumbents dropping as long as their party holds the majority.

By: Gandalf

Gandalf — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:37:46 +0000

I read your comments in the other diaries as well, and you’ve convinced me McCain is fairly safe here. The only thing real danger I could see is if Hayworth is able to knock him off and Obama asks Napolitano to run a la the Bush/Mel Martinez/Florida scenario. I don’t think this likely, but still it’s something to watch for.

By: naraht

naraht — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:22:08 +0000

In 1994, the Republicans gained 8 seats taking the 56-44 Dem to 52-48 Republican. However of the 8 seats gained, 6 (AZ, ME, MI, OH, OK and TN(class1)) were seats where the Incumbent Democrat was not on the ballot. In addition, in PA, Wofford had only been in the seat for 3 years after John Heinz III died in a plane crash in 1991. The only Democratic Senator who had been elected in 1988 who was defeated was Tennessee Senator Sasser who was defeated by Frist.

The guide to whether the Republicans can take the Senate in 2010 will be Senators like Bayh and Lincoln retiring and Specter losing in the Primary.

By: Neil Stevens

Neil Stevens — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:40:52 +0000

Don’t put those four words together. Just, please, don’t.

By: mbecker908

mbecker908 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:20:23 +0000

The Democrats have exactly two members of the Party with any statewide name recognition. Janet Napolitano who, if she left DHS and came back to AZ, could make a race against McCain. Given the current economic problems in the state that could be tied to her I doubt she’d win, but she’d make a race of it.

Terry Goddard is the elected AG in AZ. He’s running for Governor against (probably) incumbent Jan Brewer. Brewer is our contribution to the Charlie Crist in Drag contest. Goddard will slaughter her. If she doesn’t run I’m not sure the Republicans have a candidate who will do any better than my dead white cat will do against McCain.

Bottom line – again – on McCain, he’s absolutely unbeatable in the general election this year, as he was the last time he ran against my dead white cat. The Dems don’t have a candidate, the state party is broke and the national party won’t throw good money into a race that they’ve got no hope of even coming in as a close second on when they’ve got real seats to defend.

I commented about Hayworth in a diary last week. He’ll peak on the day he announces. AZ is a closed primary state and we have huge numbers of left leaning indys who will register R to vote against JD. It won’t even be close. McCain has a $6MM war chest and can raise unlimited amounts of money. JD has a big bill left over from his loss to Harry Mitchell.

The only thing that might swing this race is McCain dying. I wouldn’t bet on that either. His mom is 90+ and I’d be afraid his damn daughter would step in.

By: smagar

smagar — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:38:38 +0000

I’ve not seen a consensus D candidate emerge yet. Have you?

By: BlueStateSaint

BlueStateSaint — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:38:28 +0000

The word is that he could see the Senate seat as a springboard to the White House in 2012.