Clunked Out


Car dealers are facing the boomerage effect of the so-called Cash for Clunkers program.  Dealers are reporting showrooms empty of customers.  Chrysler/Fiat is reporting sales are down 19%.  Toyota is planning a $1 billion marketing campaign and adjustments in dealer pricing to try to lure more people back to stores and help dealers close deals.

Despite hugely improved sales in July and August, September sales are set to be among the lowest in 28 years, tying an industry record low on statistics kept since 1976.

The problem is exactly what so many predicted would happen:  Hundreds of thousands of people who would otherwise have waited and bought new cars over the next several months instead bought them in July and August, cashing in on the government-sponsored incentive.  Now that those incentives are gone, there are fewer consumers looking to buy cars.  Instead of a natural progression of steady but low sales, the market experienced a brisk rise in sales and will now face lower sales over the coming months.

Indeed, Barclays predicts that sales will drop-off to pre-Clunkers levels.  In fact, it seems clear that sales are going to be well below Barclay’s predictions.  September already looks to finish with sales ofjust 8.8 million units, well below the 10.0 million predicted for this month.  I’ve placed a chart with the C.A.R.S. program period highlighted below:

US Auto Sales 2008-2009

US Auto Sales 2008-2009

Clearly, while C.A.R.S. succeeded in promoting sales during the rebate period, all it did was steal sales from later months.  No actual improvement in the auto market is apparent.

In other words, the predictions of the skeptics were true: Sales during the rebate period were simply canibalized from later in the year.  The result will be lower sales in the coming months, resulting in newly idled plants and lost jobs.  Reduced cash flow will force car companies and auto dealers to reduce their workforce.

In the end, we’re right back where we started.  Except that now, the government spent $3 billion of our money to get us here.

Cross-posted at Seeking Liberty.



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Typical of short term taxpayer debt giveaways

Beaglescout (Diary) Monday, September 21st at 10:05PM EST (link)

Every single time the gubmint does something like that the people who get the one-shot money either use it to buy something sooner rather than later or pay down their debts.

Americans are not stupid. We know that our taxes are going to go up under Obama. For one thing the Bush cuts, including the removal of the marriage penalty, will expire next year and everyone’s taxes, especially family taxes, will go up drastically. We also see inflation creeping up, without any compensating wage increases (unless you’re already at minimum wage or a union mandated multiple). Insurance takes a bigger bite every year. So do local and state taxes. Even fines are going up.

It seems that everybody but the government has a cash-flow crisis, and the government is just borrowing the money from us and our kids to pay back some time in the future. President BO’s economy stinks. It will keep on stinking because the fundamentals stink. And the bottom line is without tax cuts and spending cuts it will keep on stinking forever.

Democrats buy into Keynesian and Marxist economics because they got the chicken or egg question of Marxism wrong. Which came first, wages or profits? The first time a subsistence farmer produced extra food, was the extra food that he used to trade for something he wanted a wage, or a profit? It was a profit. All economic advancement and all wages come from profits. Yet Democrats and other Marxists don’t understand that. They have the most basic principle of things backwards, and that backwardness explains everything else they have backwards.

“A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one.”

–Alexander Hamilton
 

But wait, there's more.

Loren Heal (Diary) Tuesday, September 22nd at 5:49AM EST (link)

Suppose you had a used car, worth $1000. You traded it in, and the dealer knocked off $4500 from the price of your new car. You “save” $3500.

But:

The dealer was using a wholly fictitious and inflated price, the MSRP (or so), as the starting point. In a tight market, they would have “given” you some amount between $1000 and $4500 for your clunker anyway. The only difference is that instead of reselling your old car on the open market, they destroy the car and wait on a government check.

And no one is able to buy the cheap used car they need in a sucky Democrat economy, because the government is fiddling with the market.

It takes a long, long time for a new car getting 33mpg to cost less than a used car getting 20mpg.

How long? If you drive 1000 miles/month, you would have been buying 50 gallons to fill the clunker, but only buy 30 gallons to fill the new car. That’s a savings of 20 gallons per month, or about $50/month at current prices. But suppose gas prices go to $5/gal. That’s $100/month. Let’s throw in an extra $100/month for the clunker’s repairs.

With a $300/mon car payment, that fuel-efficient car is going to cost you about $100/month, for 3 years, after which time it will surely be needing repairs of its own.

So the cash you get will take 6 short years to pay for itself.

Drive carefully!


Join the Concord Project, and follow @lheal, if you dare.

Annnnd if you order right now, we'll throw in

johnCV (Diary) Wednesday, September 23rd at 3:30PM EST (link)

a taxable refund too!

http://www.keloland.com/NewsDetail6162.cfm?Id=0,89084

You get to pay taxes on the $4500 ‘rebate’ now, and then finance it through your future income taxes.

It just get’s better and better….

 
 

The only law that works as expected:

itrytobenice (Diary) Tuesday, September 22nd at 9:34AM EST (link)

The law of unintended consequences.

And our loser government doesn’t even believe it exists. They are so vain they believe they can successfully manipulate our activity, the economy and the environment with their ignorant laws. What fools.

Proper grammar saves lives.

Let’s eat Grandma.
Let’s eat, Grandma.


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Unless you can buy with cash, why on Earth

Achance (Diary) Tuesday, September 22nd at 10:33AM EST (link)

would anyone take on any liability with all the uncertainty in this Country? Our economy in Alaska is relatively untouched by the contrived Democrat recession, tourism and air cargo landings are off a bit, but nobody is buying anything much, even with cash – except precious metals.

Even for those of us who’ve accustomed ourselves to the world of cash flow as opposed to net worth, the knowledge that perhaps significant portions of your income are in danger of being confiscated will keep you from taking on any new expenses. My ten year old cars and the 2000 hr. engines in my boat will just have to hang in there for awhile.

In Vino Veritas

Dad always said:

Loren Heal (Diary) Tuesday, September 22nd at 10:57AM EST (link)

“Never borrow to buy a depreciating asset.”


Join the Concord Project, and follow @lheal, if you dare.

 

Good point and very true

Jack_Savage (Diary) Tuesday, September 22nd at 10:58AM EST (link)

My rich friends made a killing in the boom times, and do not plan on spending a nickel of their money until the climate changes drastically. A very few of them are buying real estate for cash, where the ROI is sweet even without a recovery. If the economy improves even moderately they will make out, but if it doesn’t they are still OK. I have been looking at some short-sale homes, which are cropping up more and more (contrary to the media spin), but am very hesitant still.

Bottom line is that everyone who is actually in business or responsible for forecasting is predicting a very sorry 2010 and is girding their loins accordingly. The only thing that will help free up money is a Republican takeover of the House and significant gains in the Senate. Otherwise, the movers and shakers will be content to play tennis, eat out and wait two more years.

 
 

Reminds me of grocery store "loss leaders"

penguin2 (Diary) Tuesday, September 22nd at 10:56AM EST (link)

May not exactly be a comparable analogy, but it does speak to the consumers mind. Grocery stores run sales that are designed to get shoppers into the store, not only to buy the deeply discounted items, but in hopes of them buying other items at regular prices. The stores take a “loss” on the sale items, but hopes to make it up by having you in the store–shopping.

The problem they run into, are shoppers like myself. People who survey the ads, go in and buy the great bargains and get out with minimum purchasing of the regular priced stuff. In other words, unless there had been those deep discounts, I probably would not have been in at all.

The Christmas season is an even better example. Retailers look for at least 25% of their yearly sales to occur in that period. Dollars spent in Nov/Dec are not going to be spent in the months following. Merchants take that into account.

The automobile industry is too large a big ticket item to absorb dramatic tinkering.

Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God. – Benjamin Franklin
When Good stands up to Evil, Evil blinks. – Vassar Bushmills

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It's Also a Waiting Game

gahazzah (Diary) Wednesday, September 23rd at 5:24AM EST (link)

If you survey the ads and buy the great deals you understand the notion that things typically go on sale — again.

While it is true that many people jump on sales to cash in on a discount, those who do not (or simply miss out) tend to know that sales are not one time events. Every few months car dealers are telling us that they’re having a “once in a lifetime” event with low-low-low princes this Sunday-Sunday-Sunday.

Problem — we’ve seen the ads for years. We know they’ll happen again. When I saw that Cash for Clunkers was out of money I simply figured they’d do it again later when Gov’t Motors needed another bailout. The Gov’t isn’t really good at one time subsidies or “temporary” fixes.

I think it goes beyond the loss leader analogy or even the cannibalization argument (while both valid and true) to one of turning customers off of buying now, or even in the immediate future, when they might get more later. After all, if I just hold out a little while longer my worthless truck might be “worth” 4500$ again.

/government

 
 

GM to restore 3,000 jobs

6eorge Jetson (Diary) Tuesday, September 22nd at 11:38PM EST (link)

$60,000 question what cars are the 3,000 going to be making?

DONTREADONME (Diary) Tuesday, September 22nd at 11:42PM EST (link)

My guess its those stupid little teny-tiny little bumper cars with hamster engines, for who to buy exactly? No-one, those 3000 better enjoy the temporary employment. Actually I think we should take all of the Union guys and give them a shovel and start doing some digging until we can actually pay them to produce a product.

 
 

Fred aka 10-1, your logic is impeccable - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Wednesday, September 23rd at 10:29PM EST (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

I concur

Richard Mullins (Diary) Wednesday, September 23rd at 11:41PM EST (link)

BTW, I’ve been on a roll tonight as logic. First, I post this on my blog http://wp.me/pzyMi-3o . Then I post this, http://wp.me/pzyMi-3s

I really think I’m outdoing myself and think Fred Maidment as a mentor.

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Joe Biden is like a Decrepit Park owner with a Meth lab that happens to not only be a dealer but a user.

Let’s Bankrupt the Democratic paty. Make spend all the money to defend thier candidates.

or atleast a maid-mentor! - nt

Mike gamecock DeVine (Diary) Thursday, September 24th at 12:00AM EST (link)

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com, Charlotte Observer and The Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

 
 
 

I bought a new car this week

JustLeaveMeAlone (Diary) Thursday, September 24th at 9:11PM EST (link)

No, it was not made by the UAW.

Yes, the poor salesman was so happy to see a customer he almost wept with joy.

Yes, his manager almost kissed my feet.

I made a decent deal but didn’t beat them up. I felt sorry for them.

Dealer inventories appear shockingly low everywhere I went.

Yes, I paid cash. In times past, they would have tried every trick in the book to get me to finance. But I got no argument when I whipped out my checkbook. They were probably too concerned about paying the electric bill to worry about the back-end finance charges they weren’t going to get. My check cleared in record time, too.

A bird in the hand, etc. etc.

(As an aside, downtown Houston is nightly being raided by tire/wheel thieves — they leave all those new GMs with no wheel locks up on blocks while they roll all four tires away. This is happening in parking garages WITH security guards ,and the local news media isn’t reporting it.)

“To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson

 

Ran into the local Chrysler dealer night b4 last.

Achance (Diary) Thursday, September 24th at 9:51PM EST (link)

Tuesday made 19 years for SWMBO and I so we went to what passes for a fancy restaurant here. The guy who owns the Crrysler dealership was there with a party of three that I didn’t really know but who were clearly in the auto business. I’m not a real good customer because I tend to buy nice cars then keep them a long time, not what they like, but I’ve bought three top-of the-line cars from him over the last twenty years, so we know each other pretty well.

He hails me over and acts like its “old home week, ” introducing me to his party and carrying on about how much business we’ve done together. I told him I’d bought my last Chrysler. We went on about Obama Motors and such for awhile, but he’s as Republican as you can be in a town with a lot of Democrats, so he knew what I was saying.

As he was on the way out, he stops by the table and asks me to stop by. I said call me when you can sell me a new Lincoln.

In Vino Veritas

 

Ouch!

The_Gadfly (Diary) Thursday, September 24th at 11:11PM EST (link)

also from Barclay’s:

While the entire car industry benefited from the boost in auto demand caused by the CARS program, the Japanese 3 captured an oversized share of the clunkers benefit, whereas the Domestic 3′s share was well below trend.

That’s not gonna help Govt Motors or the Fiat subsidiary get back on track for anything, which as I recall was part of the justification for the program under the stimulus bill. So it pretty much missed on all points.

Contrary to Barclays I expect the area under the curve for the July 1, 2009 to December 31, 2009 will be smaller than if there had been no program at all. That’s not going to be good in January 2010, and that’s assuming it takes that long for the problem to become recognized.